1. “Acting in Time: Educating Leaders to
Solve Our Greatest Global
Challenges”
David T. Ellwood
Dean
Harvard Kennedy School
Davos IdeasLab
January 2011
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2. Predictable Crises
Demographic Shifts
Climate Change
Pandemics, Avian
Flu, H1N1,
Earthquakes,
Tsunamis, Floods,
Hurricane, Typhoons
WATER
Terrorism
Budget
Poverty and Deficits
Inequality
Nuclear Proliferation
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3. Acting in Time Problems
 Foreseeable Future Problem
 There are Credible Solutions
 Acting Sooner Rather Would Be Vastly
More Effective and Cost Much Less
YET LEADERS AND NATIONS
OFTEN SEEM UNABLE OR
UNWILLING TO ACT
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4. Theory 1:
The Problem is People
 Humans Are Short Sighted
 Humans Are Incredibly Bad at Dealing with Risk and
Uncertainty
 Humans Blame Others for Big Problems
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5. Theory 2:
The Problem is Business
 Profits Ignore Externalities
 The Competitive Disadvantage:
 Business Knows When “Acting” Will Cost Them
– Use power, money and influence to avoid action
– “The science is weak”
– “We are not to blame”
– “There are better solutions”
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6. Theory 3:
The Problem is Governments
 The Next Election Dilemma—Is Democracy Inherently
Short Sighted?
 Emphasizing Hard Challenges and Taking Tough Action is
Rarely A Good Career Move for Government Officials
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7. Theory 3:
The Problem is Governments
 Weak or Distant Victims
Versus Powerful Interests
Who Gain from Inaction
 Collective Action Across
Multiple Governments—
“Competing Narratives” and
the Free Rider
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8. But Sometimes
Nations Do Act In Time
 The Ozone Layer
Lessons:
 Vividness
 Unusual Alliances—Aligning the Interests of
Business, Government and Civil Society
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9. But Sometimes
Nations Do Act In Time
 H1N1 (Swine Flu) and Bird Flu
Lessons:
 Clearly Accountable Leaders--Health Ministers
 Credible, Independent Institutions With Strong
Scientific Focus
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10. But Sometimes
Nations Do Act In Time
 The Marshall Plan
Lessons:
 Global Orientation
 Reinforcing Foresight Among Exceptional Business
and Government Leaders
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11. Lessons For Acting in Time
 Exceptional Long Term Leadership and Clear
Responsibility
 Make Tomorrow’s Problem, Vivid Today
 Seek Out “Unexpected Partners”; Forge Unusual Alliances
Among Affected Parties. Strategies that involve
collaboration between government, business, and civil
society
 Build Trusted Institutions of Accountability With a Long
Term Focus
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12. Finding and Educating
Leaders Who Act in Time
 Attract Exceptional Public Leaders From All Sectors
– Character
– Intelligence
– Creativity
– Deep Concern with the Public Interest, Not Just Private Interest
 Educate Students to Solve Real World Problems
 Create Capacity to Work Across Sectors and Across Nations
 Skilled in Communication and Technology
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13. Finding and Educating
Leaders Who Act in Time
 Educate Them to Solve Real World Problems
– Integrated Problem Oriented Not Just Separate “Stove Pipe”
Discipline Courses
– On the Ground Real Time Problem Solving
– Able to Understand and Shape Politics and Institutions
– A Culture of Accountability and Effective Management
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14. Finding and Educating
Leaders Who Act in Time
 Create Capacity to Work Across Sectors and Across Nations
– Recognize and Admire Unique Capacity and Cultures of Different
Sectors
– Understand How to Reshape Incentives To Create Common Gains
– Global Perspective, Local Understanding
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15. Finding and Educating
Leaders Who Act in Time
 Help Them Become Skilled in Communication and Technology
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