Marketing ROI Measurement for Restaurants

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Optimizing Marketing and Media
Strategy for Retail Food Service
Through Effective Marketing
Measurement and Accountability

Today’s Agenda
• Bottom-Line Analytics
• The Marketing Measurement Challenge
• The Vision
• QSR Case Study
• The Plan
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Copyright Bottom Line Analytics, LLC - All Rights Reserved, 2013

About Us
✓ Bottom-Line Analytics LLC is a consulting group that
focuses on Marketing and Social Media analytics
✓ Our modeling experts have a total of over 100 years of direct
experience with marketing optimization modeling. This
includes direct experience in over 35 countries and dozens of
product categories
✓ We are dedicated to the principles of innovation, excellence
and uncompromising customer service
✓ Most important, however, we are dedicated to getting tangible
and positive business results for our clients
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Our Team’s Experience
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Today’s Agenda
• The Vision
• QSR Case Study
• The Plan
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• In the early 1900’s John Wanamaker turned a phrase
marketers still reference today:
“Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted, I just don’t
know which half”
• In the 1930’s, Albert Einstein said
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and
expecting different results”
• In the 1990’s a new era of marketing accountability was
born, with an appropriate quote, by F. John Reh
“You can not manage what you don't measure”
The Marketing Measurement Challenge
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BLA Focuses on Measuring & Optimizing
The Where And The What
Revenues
Offline Media,
Direct, Creative
& Message
Online Media,
Direct &
Message
Pricing,
Capacity &
Customer
Transactions
Macro
Variables and
Market Factors
Competition
Influential Factors – Independent Variables
Social Media
Guest
Experience
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Today’s Agenda
• The Vision
• QSR Case Study
• The Plan
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• Visualize-
– A tool which will enable you to accurately ascribe ROI to each of your various
marketing initiatives
– The ability to simulate and forecast any of a number of future Business Plans
and/or Business Scenarios
– An ability to know what marketing programs are working and not working
– The ability to accurately quantify volume gains from specific competitors, due
to cannibalization or that which is purely incremental
• Realize
– How to drive 3-10% more revenue with current or existing marketing budgets
through model-based marketing spending optimization
– A business and marketing plan that can be factually defended and linked
directly to profitable revenue and growth
– A business plan where you are confident that your marketing dollars are
working at maximum efficiency
– A system whereby wasted and unproductive marketing initiatives can be
eliminated
The Vision

Today’s Agenda
• The Vision
• QSR Case Study
• The Plan
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• Client Profile - $6.3B annual revenues, 1,800 outlets nationwide, 100%
franchise-owned
– Franchisees fund national-corporate marketing and product development via a
10% assessment against their net income and fund 100% of local marketing
efforts
– Client spent $85M in marketing & media initiatives:
• National Media: $46M
• Local Media $39M
• New Product Launches & Initiatives: $4M
– The client used a broad spectrum of different messages supported across
media, including brand, breakfast, promotional & new products
• Study Objectives
– Develop a fact-based assessment of Media and Marketing activities
– Develop recommendations to maximize growth by achieving the most
effective balance between national-corporate, local and new product
marketing investments and across all regions, media and marketing channels
• The case example has been masked to preserve confidentiality
QSR Restaurant Case Study

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How Effective Are Our Media and Marketing Activities?
1. What proportion of marketing program/channels contributed to total
revenue sales?
2. Which regions were most impacted by marketing and which marketing
programs worked best in each region?
3. What were the key drivers of growth and what role did new-products play
in driving that growth?
4. What messages drove a greater response - brand, new product, breakfast
or promotional?
5. What is the ROI of individual marketing programs/channels?
Client Questions
What Can We Do To Improve In The Future?
6. Which marketing activities represent the best opportunities for
increased funding and which should we cut back?
7. What is the optimal total spend and how should that be allocated across
markets and programs/channels?
8. What Is the optimal marketing spend across individual markets?

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65.6%
3.7%
0.8%
8.8%
1.1%
0.8% 1.9%
2.2%
3.6%
0.4%
2.6%
0.5%
0.8%0.3%
1.8%
4.1%
0.3%0.7%
19.1%
Base Vol Customer Traffic Growth Store Expansion
Social Media WOM Healthy Menu Launch Media New Salad Buffet Media and Promo
FSI's Ad Quality Local Radio
Local OOH Long Term TV Ad Effect Nat Brand TV Short-Term Effect. Brand Message
Nat Brand TV Short-Term Effect. Breakfast Message Nat Brand TV Short-Term Effect. Promo Message Local TV Short-Term Effect, Promo Message
Local TV Short-Term Effect, Breakfast Message Online Banners Online Search
▪ Marketing efforts drove 19% of QSR sales. National TV drove 6.4%, local TV generated 5.9% of sales.
Breakfast messages generated 4.9% of total sales, while new-product media messages garnered a 2%
share; social media drove 8.8% of sales.
Decomposition of Sales
1. What Proportion Do Marketing Programs/Channels
Contribute To Annual Sales?
Marketing
Activities

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Consolidated Sales Decomposition by Region
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Northeast Central Southeast SouthWest West
Online Search Online Banners Local TV Short-Term Effect
Nat Brand TV Short-Term Effect Long Term TV Ad Effect Local OOH
Local Radio Ad Quality FSI's
New Salad Buffet Media and Proomo Healthy Menu Launch Store Expansion
Customer Traffic Growth Base Vol
▪ The West Region is the most marketing driven of all of the regions. This is due to the higher success of
new product launches . The SE region is most affected by local TV advertising, whereas FSI’s have a
relatively greater impact in the NE region.
Decomposition of Sales by Region
2. Which Regions Were Most Impacted By Marketing And
Which Marketing Programs Worked Best In Each Region?

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-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Healthy Menu Launch Base Vol Ad Quality Local Radio
Store Expansion FSI's Customer Traffic Long Term TV Ad Effect
New Salad Buffet Media and Promo Online Adv National TV Short-Term Effect Local TV Short-Term Effect
Local OOH Price
Contributions to Annual Sales Variance
▪ The QSR sales increased 6.7% YOY. The two new item launches together accounted for 3.2 points of that
growth, or nearly half. Improved national TV ad quality was a notable positive driver
▪ Negative effects were due to a +3% price increase and reductions in outdoor and local TV ad spending
3. What Are The Key Drivers Of Growth? What Role Did New-
Products Play In Driving That Growth?

$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Brand Messages Breakfast Messages New Product
Messages
Promotional
Messages
$1.11
$1.49
$2.68
$1.26
ROI of Marketing Campaigns & Messages
(Profit Per Expenditure $)
4. What Messages Drove A Greater Response, Brand, New
Product, Breakfast Or Promotional?
▪ New product and breakfast messages stand out as delivering the highest ROI per dollar of
investment.
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Ad Creative Effectiveness The Result: Way Too Many Bad Ads
Good Ads
Underperforming Ads
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All Ad Norms
Ad Effectiveness Ratings Last 12 Months QSRs by Channel

Ad ROI by Creative Execution
$0.76
$0.87
$1.04
$1.56
$1.73
$1.93
$0.71
$0.87
$0.95
$1.34
$1.41
$1.49
$0.61
$0.77
$1.89
$2.23
$0.79
$1.04
$0.95
$1.06
$1.18
$- $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50
Digital Ad 6
Digital Ad 5
Digital Ad 4
Digital Ad 3
Digital Ad 2
Digital Ad 1
Radio Ad 6
Radio Ad 5
Radio Ad 4
Radio Ad 3
Radio Ad 2
Radio Ad 1
TV Ad 4
TV Ad 3
TV Ad 2
TV Ad 1
OOH Ad 2
OOH Ad 1
FSI Ad 3
FSI Ad 2
FSI Ad 1
ROI per Dollar
ROI per Dollar

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▪ The QSR generates a 29% ROI on $85.1MM of Marketing spend
▪ Across the mix, all activities generate positive returns except outdoor advertising and FSI’s. The
launch of the healthy menu line was most profitable, with above average ROI for Salad Buffet
marketing, national TV, local radio and online advertising.
Marketing ROI
Gross
Profit
Spend
(Cost)
Net
Returns % ROI
New Salad Buffet Media and Promotion $ 6.6 $ 3.6 $ 2.9 45%
FSI's $ 14.3 $ 16.4 $ (2.1) -15%
Healthy Menu Launch $ 4.8 $ 0.4 $ 4.4 92%
Local TV $ 15.9 $ 12.1 $ 3.7 24%
National TV $ 57.2 $ 39.2 $ 18.0 31%
Local Radio $ 15.5 $ 8.7 $ 6.7 44%
Local Outdoor $ 1.7 $ 2.0 $ (0.3) -17%
Online Advertising $ 4.4 $ 2.3 $ 2.0 46%
Total Local Spending $ 47.5 $ 39.4 $ 8.1 17%
Total National Spending $ 73.1 $ 45.6 $ 27.4 38%
Total Spend $ 120.6 $ 85.0 $ 35.5 29%
5. What Is The ROI Of Individual Marketing Programs/Channels?

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▪ Below shows the relative attractiveness of the QSR’s marketing investments and campaigns. Higher
investments indicated for high ROI media with strong contributions to YOY Growth
Diminishing
Returns-Reallocate
Significantly increase spending
Increase
Spending
Significantly Decrease
Spending
Marketing Investment ROI Matrix
6. Which Marketing Activities Represent The Best Opportunities
For Increased Funding? Which Should Be Cut Back?
Contribution to Growth

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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current Mktg Contrbution Current Spend Optimal Spend
Online Search Online Banners Local TV Breakfast Message
Local TV Promo Message National TV Promo Message National TV Branded Message
National TV Breakfast Message Local OOH Local Radio
FSI's New Salad Buffet Media and Proomo Healthy Menu Launch
▪ The QSR can optimize sales by decreasing FSI’s, National & Local Promotional TV and Online
Banners, while keeping total spending constant
▪ Increase spending on the Healthy Menu initiative, Local & National Breakfast TV, Radio and
Online Search. This solution is expected to generate an 8% increase in overall sales
Marketing Spending Optimization by Channel
7. What Is The Optimal Total Spend And How Should That Be
Allocated Across Programs/Channels?

Marketing Spending Optimization by Region
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current Mktg Contribution Current Spend Optimal Spend
West SouthWest Southeast Central Northeast
8. What Is The Optimal Total Spend And How Should That Be
Allocated Across Markets?
▪ The greatest upside opportunity is to increase relative marketing investments in the Southeast and
West Regions
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1/6/2000
3/6/2000
5/6/2000
7/6/2000
9/6/2000
11/6/2000
1/6/2001
3/6/2001
5/6/2001
7/6/2001
9/6/2001
11/6/2001
1/6/2002
3/6/2002
5/6/2002
7/6/2002
9/6/2002
11/6/2002
1/6/2003
3/6/2003
5/6/2003
7/6/2003
9/6/2003
11/6/2003
1/6/2004
3/6/2004
Model Actual
Overall R^2 = 96.7%, Holdout R^2 = 94.0% ,MPE=+/- 2.4%
Model Validation
Sales
$Mil
One year after this project, due to significant increases in breakfast media and new-product
investments, this QSR increased same-store sales 11% and net income 17%
▪ Our models do a good job of predicting sales

Today’s Agenda
• The Vision
• QSR Case Study
• The Plan
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• Developing the analytics and measurement tools
• Building measurement and accountability into
business plans
• Measuring and monetizing the customer experience
with social media measurement
• Developing a measurement and accountability
culture
• Entering and realizing the path to superior profits
and growth
The Plan

Contact
• Michael Wolfe
– Principal - Bottom-Line Analytics LLC
– mjw@bottomlineanalytics.com
– (o) 770.485.0270
– (C) 678.314.8446
• David Weinberger
– Chief Marketing Officer - Bottom-Line Analytics LLC
– David@bottomlineanalytics.com
– (O) 770.649.0472
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Marketing ROI Measurement for Restaurants

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