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North American
Online Travel Report 2009
     - Hotel Focus -
EyeforTravel Research
    7-9 Fashion Street
    London
    E1 6PX
    UK

    For queries contact:
    amy@eyefortravel.com
    www.eyefortravelresearch.com

    EyeforTravel Ltd, April 2009




2
                         © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
North America Online Travel Report 2009




                                                                             Table of Contents
Table of Contents

      List of Figures                                                4
      Methodology                                                    7
      Executive Summary                                             11

      Chapter 1: North American Travel Market Analysis              17

North American Travel Market Overview                               17
US vs. Canada Travel Market Analysis                                37
US Travel Market Analysis                                           45
Canadian Travel Market Analysis                                     54

      Chapter 2: North American Hotel Sector Analysis               63

North American Hotel Sector Overview                                63
US Hotel Market Analysis                                            71
Canadian Hotel Market Analysis                                      82




                                                                         3
                    © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
List of Figures



    List of Figures
    Figure 1.1:    North America Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F                                   17
    Figure 1.2:    North America Volume of Travel - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F             17
    Figure 1.3:    North America Volume of Domestic Travel, 2002-2012F                                18
    Figure 1.4:    North America Volume of Outbound Travel, 2002-2012F                                18
    Figure 1.5:    North America Travel Market Gross Value, 2002-2012F                                19
    Figure 1.6:    Spend per Trip in US$ (North America), 2002-2012F                                  19
    Figure 1.7:    North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F                  20
    Figure 1.8:    North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                          20
    Figure 1.9:    North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F                    21
    Figure 1.10:   North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F                  22
    Figure 1.11:   North American Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F            22
    Figure 1.12:   Online Penetration of the North American Travel Market, 2002-2012F                 23
    Figure 1.13:   Value of North American Travel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F             24
    Figure 1.14:   Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2008                  25
    Figure 1.15:   Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2002-2012F            25
    Figure 1.16:   North American Online Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F     26
    Figure 1.17:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Airline Market, 2002-2012F     27
    Figure 1.18:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Hotel Market, 2002-2012F       27
    Figure 1.19:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Car Rental Market, 2002-2012   27
    Figure 1.20:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Bus Market, 2002-2012F         28
    Figure 1.21:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Cruise Market, 2002-2012F      28
    Figure 1.22:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Railway Market, 2002-2012F     28
    Figure 1.23:   Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Package Market, 2002-2012F     29
    Figure 1.24:   Value of the North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F      29
    Figure 1.25:   North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008                     30
    Figure 1.26:   North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F               30
    Figure 1.27:   North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%),
                   2002-2012F                                                                         31
    Figure 1.28:   Spend per Trip (North America Averages) - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F        31
    Figure 1.29:   North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F        32
    Figure 1.30:   North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008              33
    Figure 1.31:   Value of the North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound,
                   2002-2012F                                                                         33
    Figure 1.32:   North American Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%),
                   2002-2012F                                                                         33
    Figure 1.33:   North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F    34
    Figure 1.34:   North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008          35
    Figure 1.35:   North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown Values (US$),
                   2002-2012F                                                                         35
    Figure 1.36:   North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F    36
    Figure 1.37:   North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008          36
    Figure 1.38:   North American Outbound Online Travel Market Value - Sector Breakdown (US$),
                   2002-2012F                                                                         36
    Figure 1.39:   US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F                                   37
    Figure 1.40:   US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel (%), 2002-2012F                               37
    Figure 1.41:   US Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F                                            38
    Figure 1.42:   US Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F                                            39
    Figure 1.43:   Canada Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F                                        39
    Figure 1.44:   Canada Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F                                        39
    Figure 1.45:   Value of the North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F              40
    Figure 1.46:   North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F                       41
    Figure 1.47:   Average Spend per Person per Trip - US and Canada, 2002-2012F                      41
    Figure 1.48:   North American Online Travel Market - US vs.Canada (%), 2002-2012F                 42
    Figure 1.49:   Value of the North American Online Travel Market, US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F        42
    Figure 1.50:   Online Penetration Comparison of the US and Canadian Gross Travel Markets,
                   2002-2012F                                                                         43
    Figure 1.51:   Online Penetration of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F                       44




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                           © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
North America Online Travel Report 2009




                                                                                                          List of Figures
Figure 1.52:   Online Penetration of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F                44
Figure 1.53:   Value of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F                                   45
Figure 1.54:   Value of the US Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F                                  45
Figure 1.55:   US Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F                          46
Figure 1.56:   Value of US Gross Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F               47
Figure 1.57:   Outbound Travel Destination Trends, 2002-2012F                                    48
Figure 1.58:   Value of US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F              48
Figure 1.59:   US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F                   49
Figure 1.60:   Online Penetration Comparison of US Domestic and Outbound Travel Markets,
               2002-2012F                                                                        49
Figure 1.61:   US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F                               50
Figure 1.62:   US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                                     51
Figure 1.63:   US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F                             51
Figure 1.64:   US Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F                             51
Figure 1.65:   US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F                        52
Figure 1.66:   US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                              52
Figure 1.67:   US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F                      53
Figure 1.68:   US Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F                      53
Figure 1.69:   Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F                                             53
Figure 1.70:   Value of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F                             54
Figure 1.71:   Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F                    55
Figure 1.72:   Value of the Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F           55
Figure 1.73:   Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F                            56
Figure 1.74:   Canadian Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F             57
Figure 1.75:   Online Penetration Comparison of Domestic and Outbound Canadian Travel Market,
               2002-2012F                                                                        57
Figure 1.76:   Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market – Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F    58
Figure 1.77:   Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F                         59
Figure 1.78:   Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                               59
Figure 1.79:   Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F                     60
Figure 1.80:   Canadian Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F                       60
Figure 1.81:   Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F                  61
Figure 1.82:   Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008                        61
Figure 1.83:   Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F                                             62
Figure 1.84:   Canadian Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F                62
Figure 1.85:   Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F              62
Figure 2.1:    Value of North American Gross Hotel Market, 2002-2012F                            63
Figure 2.2:    Online Penetration of the North American Hotel Market, 2002-2012F                 64
Figure 2.3:    Value of the North American Hotel Market, Offline vs. Online, 2002-2012F          64
Figure 2.4:    North American Online Hotel Market as % of Total North American Online Travel
               Market                                                                            64
Figure 2.5:    Value of North American Online Hotel Market, 2002-2012F                           65
Figure 2.6:    North American Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F               66
Figure 2.7:    Value of North American Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F          66
Figure 2.8:    North American Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F        67
Figure 2.9:    Value of North American Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F   67
Figure 2.10:   North American Hotel Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F                       68
Figure 2.11:   Value of North American Hotel Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F                  68
Figure 2.12:   North American Online Hotel Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F                69
Figure 2.13:   Online Penetration Comparison of North American, US and Canadian Hotel Markets,
               2002-2012F                                                                        69
Figure 2.14:   Value of the North American Online Hotel Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F       70
Figure 2.15:   US Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F                           71
Figure 2.16:   Value of the US Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F                  72
Figure 2.17:   Online Penetration of the US Hotel Market, 2002-2012F                             72
Figure 2.18:   Value of the US Hotel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F                     73
Figure 2.19:   US Gross, Domestic and Outbound Online Hotel Markets as % of Respective Online
               Travel Market, 2002-2012F                                                         74
Figure 2.20:   Value of the US Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F           74




                                                                                                      5
                       © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
List of Figures



    Figure 2.21:   Online Penetration Comparison of Total, Domestic and Outbound US Hotel
                   Markets, 2002-2012F                                                                     75
    Figure 2.22:   Value of the US Online Domestic Hotel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F           76
    Figure 2.23:   Online Penetration of the US Domestic Hotel Market, 2002-2012F                          76
    Figure 2.24:   Value of the US Online Outbound Hotel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F           76
    Figure 2.25:   Online Penetration of the US Outbound Hotel Market, 2002-2012F                          77
    Figure 2.26:   US Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F               78
    Figure 2.27:   Value of the US Online Hotel Market, Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F                    78
    Figure 2.28:   US Domestic Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F      79
    Figure 2.29:   US Outbound Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F      79
    Figure 2.30:   Value of the US Domestic Online Hotel Market Value, Direct vs. Indirect
                   Distribution, 2002-2012F                                                                80
    Figure 2.31:   Value of the US Outbound Online Hotel Market Value, Direct vs. Indirect Distribution,
                   2002-2012F                                                                              80
    Figure 2.32:   Canadian Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F                           82
    Figure 2.33:   Value of the Canadian Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F                  83
    Figure 2.34:   Online Penetration of the Canadian Hotel Market, 2002-2012F                             83
    Figure 2.35:   Value of the Canadian Hotel Market, Offline vs. Online, 2002-2012F                      84
    Figure 2.36:   Online Penetration of the Canadian Domestic Hotel Market, 2002-2012F                    85
    Figure 2.37:   Online Penetration of the Canadian Outbound Hotel Market, 2002-2012F                    85
    Figure 2.38:   Canadian Gross, Domestic and Outbound Online Hotel Markets as % of Respective
                   Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F                                                        86
    Figure 2.39:   Value of the Canadian Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F           87
    Figure 2.40:   Value of the Canadian Domestic Hotel Market - Offline vs. Online, 2002-2012F            87
    Figure 2.41:   Value of the Canadian Outbound Hotel Market - Offline vs. Online, 2002-2012F            88
    Figure 2.42:   Canadian Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F         88
    Figure 2.43:   Value of the Canadian Online Hotel Market, Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F              89
    Figure 2.44:   Canadian Domestic Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%),
                   2002-2012F                                                                              90
    Figure 2.45:   Canadian Outbound Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%),
                   2002-2012F                                                                              90
    Figure 2.46:   Value of the Canadian Domestic Online Hotel Market, Direct vs. Indirect Distribution,
                   2002-2012F                                                                              91
    Figure 2.47:   Value of the Canadian Outbound Online Hotel Market, Direct vs. Indirect Distribution,
                   2002-2012F                                                                              91




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                            © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary
                    North America Online Travel Report 2009



Executive Summary
> North American Travel Market Overview
2009 to be the first year this decade that a decline in travel expenditure is
expected in the region

The value of the North American travel market reached an estimated US$389,376 million
in 2008 and a further 16% increase in volume is expect by 2012, but growth has slowed.
2009 is expected to be the first year this decade for a decline in the total value of travel
expenditure and we forecast a recovery in 2010.

Fastest growth in Hotel and Cruise sectors

Airlines continue to account for the largest proportion of travel spend, followed by Hotels.
In 2008 these sectors accounted for 35% and 25% of the total market respectively. Fastest
growth has been in the Hotel and Cruise sectors.

Online penetration of North American travel market reaches 35%

Distribution trends within the North American market reveal some particularly interesting
patterns. Whilst offline channels continue to account for the majority of travel spend
online channel have been rapidly gaining share. In 2008 the online penetration of the
North American travel market reached about 35% of the value. By 2012 we are expecting
almost half of travel expenditure to be online. Growth rates of the online channel are
expected to be lower than previous years but between 2008 and 2012 a total growth in
value of almost 50% is forecast. The online travel market by 2012 is predicted to reach
a value of US$201,382 million. That is an additional US$57,498 million annually to be
circulated online by the end of 2012.

All growth is online

While the gross travel market experiences a relatively stagnant period, amongst this,
the online travel market is showing very healthy growth and continuing to erode offline
share. This illustrates the growing importance of online channels and the resilience to the
economic downturn.

The Airline sector dominates the online travel market (56%) and online expenditure on
Airline products reached US$75,964 million in 2008. The value of the online travel market
is forecast to grow in value by 44% between 2008 and 2012.

The Hotel sector accounts for 32% of the total online travel market and US$42,831 million
in 2008. Growth by 2012 is forecast to be up by a value of over 50%. The Car Rental sector
is the next largest sector accounting for 7.7% and a value of US$10,389 million (2008).




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                       © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary



     Growth in the value of the outbound travel market has been higher than the domestic
     travel market, but in 2009 a decline of 4.8% is expected in the outbound market for the
     first time. Good recovery is forecast for 2010.

     Domestic travel accounts for around 64% of the total online travel market and outbound
     36%. Outbound travel products for North American consumers have performed well
     online and increased in share from 28% in 2002. From 2010 we expect grow in both
     domestic and outbound online markets to hit double digit figures again.

     Canada increases it significance in the North American travel market but US spend
     more per trip

     Canadian travellers accounted for 9.4% of total North American travel trips in 2002 and
     by 2012 we expect this to increase to 11.3%. Canada has out performed the US from a
     volume growth perspective. Canada is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2009, while the US
     experiences a decline of around 1%.

     In value terms, the US contributes 90% to the North American market and this is expected
     to remain relatively consistent during the review period in this report. US travellers have
     a higher spend per trip than Canadian travellers.

     US online travel market valued at US$123,346 million in 2008

     The US accounts for 91% of the total North American online travel market. The US online
     travel market reached an estimated value of US$123,346 million in 2008 and Canada
     US$12,252 million (CAD $12,869 million). The US online market is slightly more advanced
     than Canada but penetration is relatively similar. 35.2% of US travel expenditure was
     online in 2008 against a 31.5% penetration for Canada. By 2012 we forecast 44.8% of all
     US travel expenditure to be online and 42% of Canadian.

     A continuously changing travel distribution landscape

     The contrast between the performances of online and offline channels is enormous.
     Online channels have been remarkably productive and growth rates have remained in
     double digit figures for every year reviewed in the report – with the exception of 2009
     when annual growth is expected to fall to a level of 6.3% (still well above growth levels
     for the offline market for the entire period). Put alongside offline productivity, the 5.2%
     decline in the offline market for 2009 makes a very strong statement. The online channels
     certainly now seem strong despite times of instability.

     US outbound travel market is growing

     Just under 70% of US travel expenditure is currently on domestic travel. Outbound travel is
     growing well and at higher rates than the more mature domestic market. 2009 is however
     expected to result in an estimated 4.8% decline. Mexico and Canada are receiving the
     most outbound travellers, followed by the UK. Growth has been strongest in Germany




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                           © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary
                    North America Online Travel Report 2009



and Japan. A slightly higher proportion of domestic travel is bought online in comparison
to outbound travel, but only marginally.

Canadian travel market reaches US$38,869 million (CAD $40,825 million) in 2008

By 2012 the Canadian travel market is expected to be 73% larger in size than it was in 2002.
The Canadian market is very different from the US in that outbound travel accounts for
the majority of the Canadian travel market. In 2008 outbound travel contributed around
67% to the total Canadian travel market. Annual growth has generally been higher for
outbound travel and a 5.5% CAGR is expected for the 2007-2012 review period.

Canadian online travel market valued at US$1,986 million (2008)

Online channels are also becoming increasingly significant for the Canadian travel
market. Online penetration has jumped from 11% in 2002 to around 32% in 2008. Growth
is expected to slow but continue to expand and penetrate around 42% of the market by
2012. The online travel market is divided fairly evenly between domestic and outbound
markets, despite the domination of the outbound segment in the gross market. The
domestic market has a higher online penetration and when in 2012 we forecast that
60% of domestic travel will be purchased online, 33% of the outbound segment will be
online. Growth online for both has been remarkable though. Airline products make up a
significant 61% of the Canadian online travel market and the data reveals that there is a
lot of room for growth for some of the travel sectors.


> Hotel Sector

Dip in the North American Hotel market forecast for 2009

The North American Hotel market reached an estimated US$97,751 million in 2008,
up 4.2% from 2007. Despite dip in 2009 (-3.6%), the Hotel market is reported to have
performed well and by 2012 we expect the size to almost double from 2002 levels.
Positive growth is expected to return again in 2010 and annual growth of around 7% is
expected for the next three years.

US and Canadian Hotel markets expected to experience a decline – but in different
years

The US Hotel market has reported slightly higher rates of growth than the Canadian
market during the full review period of this report. Both markets are expected to take a
hit from economic pressures but the Canadian market registered a 2.5% decline in 2008
when the US increased by 5.8%. Then when the Canadian market returns to positive
growth with a 1.8% increase forecast in 2009, the US is expected to decline by 3.4%. By
2010 both markets are forecast to pick up and growth between 6% and 8% is expected.




                                                                                               13
                       © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary



     US outbound Hotel market feeling the impact

     US consumers have increased their expenditure on Hotel products consistently during the
     review period and the sector share of the total US travel market has also increased. The
     value of the US Hotel market reached an estimated US$87,958 million in 2008, up 5.6%
     from 2007, but a 3.4% decline is expected for 2009. Growth is higher in the outbound
     market in comparison to the domestic market for all years under review except 2008 and
     2009.

     Canadian domestic Hotel market took a bigger hit in 2008

     The Canadian Hotel market accounts for about quarter of Canadian travel market. The
     market valued reached an estimated US$9,793 million in 2008 (CAD$10,285 million). This
     represents a 2.5% decline from 2007 but growth is expected to return in 2009 at 1.8%.
     The Hotel market is divided fairly evenly between the domestic and outbound Hotel
     segments (outbound was around 52% in 2008). The decline of the Hotel market in 2008
     included a larger decline for the domestic segment.

     North American consumers buy more and more Hotel products online

     Online penetration rates of the Hotel market are slightly below the Airline sector, but
     relative to all other Travel sectors, the online Hotel market has performed very well. The
     growing confidence of North American consumers is clearly reflected in the figures.
     Growth of the online Hotel market has been at a 25.3% CAGR (2002-2007) and although
     it is expected to slow we forecast double digit rates. Whilst the online Hotel market is
     predicted to be impacted by economic pressures and forecast to record the lowest actual
     growth rate in the review period in 2009 (annual growth of 3.7%) we do continue to see
     growth. By 2010 growth is expected to return to a healthy level of 14.8% and maintained
     above 13% for the following 2 years.

     Largest plunge yet for the offline US Hotel market (-9%) expected in 2009

     The expansion of online hotel market been impressive in the US market. The offline Hotel
     market is expected to take a large plunge in 2009. Growth is accounted for by online
     channels and although growth online is expected to slow from previous years, a 3.5%
     annual increase is predicted nonetheless.

     Online channels increasingly vital in any Hotel distribution strategy targeting the
     region but maintaining the efficiency and integration of both channels remains
     important

     Growth in online expenditure has been double the growth of offline channels. The Hotel
     market is a significant sector online, accounting for around one third of the total North
     American online travel market. Outbound Hotels have performed particularly well in
     recent years and in 2008 made up around 27% of the total online Hotel market.




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                           © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary
                    North America Online Travel Report 2009



Online/Offline gap for US Hotel market forecast to close by 2010

In 2008, 44.6% of the total expenditure by US travellers on Hotel products was online.
This equated to a value of US$39,268 million, an increase of 13.7% from 2007. In 2010
we forecast the online penetration to exceed the 50% mark. It is very clear from the data
that growth online has well exceeded growth offline. During 2002-2007 the offline market
edged up at a 2.7% CAGR when the online market grew at a 24% CAGR. In the 2007-2012
review period, all growth is expected to be online as offline is predicted to experience a
-2% CAGR.

Canadian online Hotel market growing faster than the US – but sizes very different

The Online Canadian Hotel market has grown relatively faster than the US but
understandably values are very different due to the sheer size of the US market. The US
online Hotel market was valued at an estimated US$39,268 million in 2008 and Canada
US$3,563 million (CAD $3,742 million). Actual growth rates are expected to be higher for
Canada.

Online penetration soars in the Canadian Hotel market

The online penetration in the Canadian Hotel market has continuously increased. In 2008
penetration reached 36.3%, a significant shift from 10% in 2002. During 2002-2007 the
offline market displayed basically stagnant growth rates with a 0% CAGR and against
this the online market grew at a 32.5% CAGR. In 2008 the only decline was accounted
for by the offline channels with an 8.4% fall in value when the online market increased in
value by almost 10%. Further decreases in the value of the offline market are expected.
Online penetration rates are similar in the domestic and outbound segments, just slightly
higher for the domestic market but values are almost equal. Positive growth is expected
throughout 2009 and forecast annual growth of 13% for both segments.

US outbound online Hotel market has grown five times the size during the 5 years
to 2008

The US outbound online Hotel market has grown faster than the domestic market. The
cross over point between online/offline distribution will arrive sooner for the outbound
segment (in 2009) and this is particularly interesting having started at lower levels than
the domestic market. Rapid growth has led to an expected 50.2% online penetration in
2009. The domestic market is forecast to catch up in 2010. Higher overall average growth
is also expected for the outbound segment going forward, except 2009 when a decline
of 4.3% expected. The domestic market has, however, not been static and has expanded
to three times the size.

OTAs lose share of the US Hotel market but gain good value

US travel consumers make relatively good use of OTAs when purchasing Hotel products.
In 2008 43% of expenditure was Indirect. The OTA share of the Hotel market has declined




                                                                                             15
                      © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary



     with Direct to consumer distribution strengthening, but OTAs are expected to hold a
     pretty good share. The value of Direct distribution grew at a 29.8% CAGR (2002-2007) and
     Indirect distribution grew at an 18.3% CAGR. Although OTAs have lost market share, their
     value has increased enormously, particularly for the outbound segment.

     Clear move towards Direct Hotel channels by Canadian consumers

     OTAs had good hold in the Canadian market in 2002 at around 54%. In 2008 there has
     been a shift in online distribution and 65% of expenditure went via Direct channels. The
     value of expenditure via Direct channels grew at a significant 41.7% CAGR (2002-2007)
     and although OTAs are losing market share the value of the Indirect market grew at a
     notable 22.8% CAGR as well. OTAs have held their share better in the outbound product
     segment.




16
                           © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.

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Hotel Online Distribution Focus North America 2009

  • 1. North American Online Travel Report 2009 - Hotel Focus -
  • 2. EyeforTravel Research 7-9 Fashion Street London E1 6PX UK For queries contact: amy@eyefortravel.com www.eyefortravelresearch.com EyeforTravel Ltd, April 2009 2 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 3. North America Online Travel Report 2009 Table of Contents Table of Contents List of Figures 4 Methodology 7 Executive Summary 11 Chapter 1: North American Travel Market Analysis 17 North American Travel Market Overview 17 US vs. Canada Travel Market Analysis 37 US Travel Market Analysis 45 Canadian Travel Market Analysis 54 Chapter 2: North American Hotel Sector Analysis 63 North American Hotel Sector Overview 63 US Hotel Market Analysis 71 Canadian Hotel Market Analysis 82 3 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 4. List of Figures List of Figures Figure 1.1: North America Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F 17 Figure 1.2: North America Volume of Travel - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 17 Figure 1.3: North America Volume of Domestic Travel, 2002-2012F 18 Figure 1.4: North America Volume of Outbound Travel, 2002-2012F 18 Figure 1.5: North America Travel Market Gross Value, 2002-2012F 19 Figure 1.6: Spend per Trip in US$ (North America), 2002-2012F 19 Figure 1.7: North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F 20 Figure 1.8: North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 20 Figure 1.9: North American Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 21 Figure 1.10: North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F 22 Figure 1.11: North American Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F 22 Figure 1.12: Online Penetration of the North American Travel Market, 2002-2012F 23 Figure 1.13: Value of North American Travel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F 24 Figure 1.14: Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2008 25 Figure 1.15: Sector Breakdown of North American Online Travel Market (%), 2002-2012F 25 Figure 1.16: North American Online Travel Market - CAGR by Sector, 2002-2007 and 2008-2012F 26 Figure 1.17: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Airline Market, 2002-2012F 27 Figure 1.18: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Hotel Market, 2002-2012F 27 Figure 1.19: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Car Rental Market, 2002-2012 27 Figure 1.20: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Bus Market, 2002-2012F 28 Figure 1.21: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Cruise Market, 2002-2012F 28 Figure 1.22: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Railway Market, 2002-2012F 28 Figure 1.23: Online/Offline Distribution Values - North American Package Market, 2002-2012F 29 Figure 1.24: Value of the North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 29 Figure 1.25: North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008 30 Figure 1.26: North American Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 30 Figure 1.27: North American Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 31 Figure 1.28: Spend per Trip (North America Averages) - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 31 Figure 1.29: North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 32 Figure 1.30: North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2008 33 Figure 1.31: Value of the North American Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 33 Figure 1.32: North American Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 33 Figure 1.33: North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 34 Figure 1.34: North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 35 Figure 1.35: North American Domestic Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown Values (US$), 2002-2012F 35 Figure 1.36: North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 36 Figure 1.37: North American Outbound Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 36 Figure 1.38: North American Outbound Online Travel Market Value - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F 36 Figure 1.39: US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel, 2002-2012F 37 Figure 1.40: US vs. Canada Total Volume of Travel (%), 2002-2012F 37 Figure 1.41: US Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F 38 Figure 1.42: US Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F 39 Figure 1.43: Canada Volume of Domestic Trips, 2002-2012F 39 Figure 1.44: Canada Volume of Outbound Trips, 2002-2012F 39 Figure 1.45: Value of the North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F 40 Figure 1.46: North American Travel Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F 41 Figure 1.47: Average Spend per Person per Trip - US and Canada, 2002-2012F 41 Figure 1.48: North American Online Travel Market - US vs.Canada (%), 2002-2012F 42 Figure 1.49: Value of the North American Online Travel Market, US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F 42 Figure 1.50: Online Penetration Comparison of the US and Canadian Gross Travel Markets, 2002-2012F 43 Figure 1.51: Online Penetration of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F 44 4 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 5. North America Online Travel Report 2009 List of Figures Figure 1.52: Online Penetration of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F 44 Figure 1.53: Value of the US Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F 45 Figure 1.54: Value of the US Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F 45 Figure 1.55: US Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 46 Figure 1.56: Value of US Gross Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 47 Figure 1.57: Outbound Travel Destination Trends, 2002-2012F 48 Figure 1.58: Value of US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 48 Figure 1.59: US Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 49 Figure 1.60: Online Penetration Comparison of US Domestic and Outbound Travel Markets, 2002-2012F 49 Figure 1.61: US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 50 Figure 1.62: US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 51 Figure 1.63: US Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F 51 Figure 1.64: US Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F 51 Figure 1.65: US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 52 Figure 1.66: US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 52 Figure 1.67: US Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (US$), 2002-2012F 53 Figure 1.68: US Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F 53 Figure 1.69: Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F 53 Figure 1.70: Value of the Canadian Gross Travel Market, 2002-2012F 54 Figure 1.71: Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 55 Figure 1.72: Value of the Canadian Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 55 Figure 1.73: Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F 56 Figure 1.74: Canadian Online Travel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 57 Figure 1.75: Online Penetration Comparison of Domestic and Outbound Canadian Travel Market, 2002-2012F 57 Figure 1.76: Value of the Canadian Online Travel Market – Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 58 Figure 1.77: Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 59 Figure 1.78: Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 59 Figure 1.79: Canadian Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F 60 Figure 1.80: Canadian Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F 60 Figure 1.81: Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2002-2012F 61 Figure 1.82: Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (%), 2008 61 Figure 1.83: Sector Online Penetration, 2002-2012F 62 Figure 1.84: Canadian Online Travel Market - Y-o-Y Growth by Sector, 2002-2012F 62 Figure 1.85: Canadian Online Travel Market - Sector Breakdown (CAD $), 2002-2012F 62 Figure 2.1: Value of North American Gross Hotel Market, 2002-2012F 63 Figure 2.2: Online Penetration of the North American Hotel Market, 2002-2012F 64 Figure 2.3: Value of the North American Hotel Market, Offline vs. Online, 2002-2012F 64 Figure 2.4: North American Online Hotel Market as % of Total North American Online Travel Market 64 Figure 2.5: Value of North American Online Hotel Market, 2002-2012F 65 Figure 2.6: North American Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 66 Figure 2.7: Value of North American Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 66 Figure 2.8: North American Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 67 Figure 2.9: Value of North American Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 67 Figure 2.10: North American Hotel Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F 68 Figure 2.11: Value of North American Hotel Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F 68 Figure 2.12: North American Online Hotel Market - US vs. Canada (%), 2002-2012F 69 Figure 2.13: Online Penetration Comparison of North American, US and Canadian Hotel Markets, 2002-2012F 69 Figure 2.14: Value of the North American Online Hotel Market - US vs. Canada, 2002-2012F 70 Figure 2.15: US Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 71 Figure 2.16: Value of the US Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 72 Figure 2.17: Online Penetration of the US Hotel Market, 2002-2012F 72 Figure 2.18: Value of the US Hotel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F 73 Figure 2.19: US Gross, Domestic and Outbound Online Hotel Markets as % of Respective Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F 74 Figure 2.20: Value of the US Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 74 5 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 6. List of Figures Figure 2.21: Online Penetration Comparison of Total, Domestic and Outbound US Hotel Markets, 2002-2012F 75 Figure 2.22: Value of the US Online Domestic Hotel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F 76 Figure 2.23: Online Penetration of the US Domestic Hotel Market, 2002-2012F 76 Figure 2.24: Value of the US Online Outbound Hotel Market - Online vs. Offline, 2002-2012F 76 Figure 2.25: Online Penetration of the US Outbound Hotel Market, 2002-2012F 77 Figure 2.26: US Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F 78 Figure 2.27: Value of the US Online Hotel Market, Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F 78 Figure 2.28: US Domestic Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F 79 Figure 2.29: US Outbound Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F 79 Figure 2.30: Value of the US Domestic Online Hotel Market Value, Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F 80 Figure 2.31: Value of the US Outbound Online Hotel Market Value, Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F 80 Figure 2.32: Canadian Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound (%), 2002-2012F 82 Figure 2.33: Value of the Canadian Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 83 Figure 2.34: Online Penetration of the Canadian Hotel Market, 2002-2012F 83 Figure 2.35: Value of the Canadian Hotel Market, Offline vs. Online, 2002-2012F 84 Figure 2.36: Online Penetration of the Canadian Domestic Hotel Market, 2002-2012F 85 Figure 2.37: Online Penetration of the Canadian Outbound Hotel Market, 2002-2012F 85 Figure 2.38: Canadian Gross, Domestic and Outbound Online Hotel Markets as % of Respective Online Travel Market, 2002-2012F 86 Figure 2.39: Value of the Canadian Online Hotel Market - Domestic vs. Outbound, 2002-2012F 87 Figure 2.40: Value of the Canadian Domestic Hotel Market - Offline vs. Online, 2002-2012F 87 Figure 2.41: Value of the Canadian Outbound Hotel Market - Offline vs. Online, 2002-2012F 88 Figure 2.42: Canadian Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F 88 Figure 2.43: Value of the Canadian Online Hotel Market, Direct vs. Indirect, 2002-2012F 89 Figure 2.44: Canadian Domestic Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F 90 Figure 2.45: Canadian Outbound Online Hotel Market - Direct vs. Indirect Distribution (%), 2002-2012F 90 Figure 2.46: Value of the Canadian Domestic Online Hotel Market, Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F 91 Figure 2.47: Value of the Canadian Outbound Online Hotel Market, Direct vs. Indirect Distribution, 2002-2012F 91 6 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 7. Executive Summary North America Online Travel Report 2009 Executive Summary > North American Travel Market Overview 2009 to be the first year this decade that a decline in travel expenditure is expected in the region The value of the North American travel market reached an estimated US$389,376 million in 2008 and a further 16% increase in volume is expect by 2012, but growth has slowed. 2009 is expected to be the first year this decade for a decline in the total value of travel expenditure and we forecast a recovery in 2010. Fastest growth in Hotel and Cruise sectors Airlines continue to account for the largest proportion of travel spend, followed by Hotels. In 2008 these sectors accounted for 35% and 25% of the total market respectively. Fastest growth has been in the Hotel and Cruise sectors. Online penetration of North American travel market reaches 35% Distribution trends within the North American market reveal some particularly interesting patterns. Whilst offline channels continue to account for the majority of travel spend online channel have been rapidly gaining share. In 2008 the online penetration of the North American travel market reached about 35% of the value. By 2012 we are expecting almost half of travel expenditure to be online. Growth rates of the online channel are expected to be lower than previous years but between 2008 and 2012 a total growth in value of almost 50% is forecast. The online travel market by 2012 is predicted to reach a value of US$201,382 million. That is an additional US$57,498 million annually to be circulated online by the end of 2012. All growth is online While the gross travel market experiences a relatively stagnant period, amongst this, the online travel market is showing very healthy growth and continuing to erode offline share. This illustrates the growing importance of online channels and the resilience to the economic downturn. The Airline sector dominates the online travel market (56%) and online expenditure on Airline products reached US$75,964 million in 2008. The value of the online travel market is forecast to grow in value by 44% between 2008 and 2012. The Hotel sector accounts for 32% of the total online travel market and US$42,831 million in 2008. Growth by 2012 is forecast to be up by a value of over 50%. The Car Rental sector is the next largest sector accounting for 7.7% and a value of US$10,389 million (2008). 11 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 8. Executive Summary Growth in the value of the outbound travel market has been higher than the domestic travel market, but in 2009 a decline of 4.8% is expected in the outbound market for the first time. Good recovery is forecast for 2010. Domestic travel accounts for around 64% of the total online travel market and outbound 36%. Outbound travel products for North American consumers have performed well online and increased in share from 28% in 2002. From 2010 we expect grow in both domestic and outbound online markets to hit double digit figures again. Canada increases it significance in the North American travel market but US spend more per trip Canadian travellers accounted for 9.4% of total North American travel trips in 2002 and by 2012 we expect this to increase to 11.3%. Canada has out performed the US from a volume growth perspective. Canada is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2009, while the US experiences a decline of around 1%. In value terms, the US contributes 90% to the North American market and this is expected to remain relatively consistent during the review period in this report. US travellers have a higher spend per trip than Canadian travellers. US online travel market valued at US$123,346 million in 2008 The US accounts for 91% of the total North American online travel market. The US online travel market reached an estimated value of US$123,346 million in 2008 and Canada US$12,252 million (CAD $12,869 million). The US online market is slightly more advanced than Canada but penetration is relatively similar. 35.2% of US travel expenditure was online in 2008 against a 31.5% penetration for Canada. By 2012 we forecast 44.8% of all US travel expenditure to be online and 42% of Canadian. A continuously changing travel distribution landscape The contrast between the performances of online and offline channels is enormous. Online channels have been remarkably productive and growth rates have remained in double digit figures for every year reviewed in the report – with the exception of 2009 when annual growth is expected to fall to a level of 6.3% (still well above growth levels for the offline market for the entire period). Put alongside offline productivity, the 5.2% decline in the offline market for 2009 makes a very strong statement. The online channels certainly now seem strong despite times of instability. US outbound travel market is growing Just under 70% of US travel expenditure is currently on domestic travel. Outbound travel is growing well and at higher rates than the more mature domestic market. 2009 is however expected to result in an estimated 4.8% decline. Mexico and Canada are receiving the most outbound travellers, followed by the UK. Growth has been strongest in Germany 12 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 9. Executive Summary North America Online Travel Report 2009 and Japan. A slightly higher proportion of domestic travel is bought online in comparison to outbound travel, but only marginally. Canadian travel market reaches US$38,869 million (CAD $40,825 million) in 2008 By 2012 the Canadian travel market is expected to be 73% larger in size than it was in 2002. The Canadian market is very different from the US in that outbound travel accounts for the majority of the Canadian travel market. In 2008 outbound travel contributed around 67% to the total Canadian travel market. Annual growth has generally been higher for outbound travel and a 5.5% CAGR is expected for the 2007-2012 review period. Canadian online travel market valued at US$1,986 million (2008) Online channels are also becoming increasingly significant for the Canadian travel market. Online penetration has jumped from 11% in 2002 to around 32% in 2008. Growth is expected to slow but continue to expand and penetrate around 42% of the market by 2012. The online travel market is divided fairly evenly between domestic and outbound markets, despite the domination of the outbound segment in the gross market. The domestic market has a higher online penetration and when in 2012 we forecast that 60% of domestic travel will be purchased online, 33% of the outbound segment will be online. Growth online for both has been remarkable though. Airline products make up a significant 61% of the Canadian online travel market and the data reveals that there is a lot of room for growth for some of the travel sectors. > Hotel Sector Dip in the North American Hotel market forecast for 2009 The North American Hotel market reached an estimated US$97,751 million in 2008, up 4.2% from 2007. Despite dip in 2009 (-3.6%), the Hotel market is reported to have performed well and by 2012 we expect the size to almost double from 2002 levels. Positive growth is expected to return again in 2010 and annual growth of around 7% is expected for the next three years. US and Canadian Hotel markets expected to experience a decline – but in different years The US Hotel market has reported slightly higher rates of growth than the Canadian market during the full review period of this report. Both markets are expected to take a hit from economic pressures but the Canadian market registered a 2.5% decline in 2008 when the US increased by 5.8%. Then when the Canadian market returns to positive growth with a 1.8% increase forecast in 2009, the US is expected to decline by 3.4%. By 2010 both markets are forecast to pick up and growth between 6% and 8% is expected. 13 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 10. Executive Summary US outbound Hotel market feeling the impact US consumers have increased their expenditure on Hotel products consistently during the review period and the sector share of the total US travel market has also increased. The value of the US Hotel market reached an estimated US$87,958 million in 2008, up 5.6% from 2007, but a 3.4% decline is expected for 2009. Growth is higher in the outbound market in comparison to the domestic market for all years under review except 2008 and 2009. Canadian domestic Hotel market took a bigger hit in 2008 The Canadian Hotel market accounts for about quarter of Canadian travel market. The market valued reached an estimated US$9,793 million in 2008 (CAD$10,285 million). This represents a 2.5% decline from 2007 but growth is expected to return in 2009 at 1.8%. The Hotel market is divided fairly evenly between the domestic and outbound Hotel segments (outbound was around 52% in 2008). The decline of the Hotel market in 2008 included a larger decline for the domestic segment. North American consumers buy more and more Hotel products online Online penetration rates of the Hotel market are slightly below the Airline sector, but relative to all other Travel sectors, the online Hotel market has performed very well. The growing confidence of North American consumers is clearly reflected in the figures. Growth of the online Hotel market has been at a 25.3% CAGR (2002-2007) and although it is expected to slow we forecast double digit rates. Whilst the online Hotel market is predicted to be impacted by economic pressures and forecast to record the lowest actual growth rate in the review period in 2009 (annual growth of 3.7%) we do continue to see growth. By 2010 growth is expected to return to a healthy level of 14.8% and maintained above 13% for the following 2 years. Largest plunge yet for the offline US Hotel market (-9%) expected in 2009 The expansion of online hotel market been impressive in the US market. The offline Hotel market is expected to take a large plunge in 2009. Growth is accounted for by online channels and although growth online is expected to slow from previous years, a 3.5% annual increase is predicted nonetheless. Online channels increasingly vital in any Hotel distribution strategy targeting the region but maintaining the efficiency and integration of both channels remains important Growth in online expenditure has been double the growth of offline channels. The Hotel market is a significant sector online, accounting for around one third of the total North American online travel market. Outbound Hotels have performed particularly well in recent years and in 2008 made up around 27% of the total online Hotel market. 14 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 11. Executive Summary North America Online Travel Report 2009 Online/Offline gap for US Hotel market forecast to close by 2010 In 2008, 44.6% of the total expenditure by US travellers on Hotel products was online. This equated to a value of US$39,268 million, an increase of 13.7% from 2007. In 2010 we forecast the online penetration to exceed the 50% mark. It is very clear from the data that growth online has well exceeded growth offline. During 2002-2007 the offline market edged up at a 2.7% CAGR when the online market grew at a 24% CAGR. In the 2007-2012 review period, all growth is expected to be online as offline is predicted to experience a -2% CAGR. Canadian online Hotel market growing faster than the US – but sizes very different The Online Canadian Hotel market has grown relatively faster than the US but understandably values are very different due to the sheer size of the US market. The US online Hotel market was valued at an estimated US$39,268 million in 2008 and Canada US$3,563 million (CAD $3,742 million). Actual growth rates are expected to be higher for Canada. Online penetration soars in the Canadian Hotel market The online penetration in the Canadian Hotel market has continuously increased. In 2008 penetration reached 36.3%, a significant shift from 10% in 2002. During 2002-2007 the offline market displayed basically stagnant growth rates with a 0% CAGR and against this the online market grew at a 32.5% CAGR. In 2008 the only decline was accounted for by the offline channels with an 8.4% fall in value when the online market increased in value by almost 10%. Further decreases in the value of the offline market are expected. Online penetration rates are similar in the domestic and outbound segments, just slightly higher for the domestic market but values are almost equal. Positive growth is expected throughout 2009 and forecast annual growth of 13% for both segments. US outbound online Hotel market has grown five times the size during the 5 years to 2008 The US outbound online Hotel market has grown faster than the domestic market. The cross over point between online/offline distribution will arrive sooner for the outbound segment (in 2009) and this is particularly interesting having started at lower levels than the domestic market. Rapid growth has led to an expected 50.2% online penetration in 2009. The domestic market is forecast to catch up in 2010. Higher overall average growth is also expected for the outbound segment going forward, except 2009 when a decline of 4.3% expected. The domestic market has, however, not been static and has expanded to three times the size. OTAs lose share of the US Hotel market but gain good value US travel consumers make relatively good use of OTAs when purchasing Hotel products. In 2008 43% of expenditure was Indirect. The OTA share of the Hotel market has declined 15 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.
  • 12. Executive Summary with Direct to consumer distribution strengthening, but OTAs are expected to hold a pretty good share. The value of Direct distribution grew at a 29.8% CAGR (2002-2007) and Indirect distribution grew at an 18.3% CAGR. Although OTAs have lost market share, their value has increased enormously, particularly for the outbound segment. Clear move towards Direct Hotel channels by Canadian consumers OTAs had good hold in the Canadian market in 2002 at around 54%. In 2008 there has been a shift in online distribution and 65% of expenditure went via Direct channels. The value of expenditure via Direct channels grew at a significant 41.7% CAGR (2002-2007) and although OTAs are losing market share the value of the Indirect market grew at a notable 22.8% CAGR as well. OTAs have held their share better in the outbound product segment. 16 © EyeforTravel Research. All rights reserved.