It is a comparson study but on actual data published by IATA

1. Aviation Forecasting GETTING THE BIG PICTURE By: Mohammed Salem Awad Consultant

2. 10/8/2011 2 Outline Airline Forecasting Model Evaluation of Forecasting Model IATA Economic Analysis 2011 3 Years Data (Input) Head To Head Analysis Model Fairness Getting The Big Picture Contact

3. 10/8/2011 3 Airline Forecasting Model

4. 10/8/2011 4 Evaluation of Forecasting Model (R2 and T. S.) Evaluation Forecasting R2 = Coef. Of Determination T. S. = Tracking Signal

5. 10/8/2011 5 IATA Economic Analysis 2011

6. 10/8/2011 6 IATA Economic Analysis 2011 ( 3 years period )

7. 10/8/2011 7 IATA Economic Analysis 2011 ( 3 years period ) 3 Years Period

8. 10/8/2011 8 IATA Economic Analysis Vs Model Forecast, Head to Head Analysis

9. 10/8/2011 9 Model Fairness Since R2 > 80% AND -4 < T.S.< 4

10. 10/8/2011 10 Comparison GETTING THE BIG PICTURE

11. 10/8/2011 11 Contact Mohammed Salem Awad Consultant Tel: 736255814 Email: smartdecision2002@yahoo.com