The document discusses cognitive enhancement and identifies weak signals related to its development. It covers: 1) Past and potential future pathways of cognitive enhancement, including social/educational and biological methods. 2) Hopes for enhancement like preventing impairment, and fears around risks to humanity. 3) A search identifying 40 weak signals, mostly in biology and tools, with few on social/psychological impacts. 4) Key emerging issues relate to neuroimaging, implants, drugs and genetics raising concerns around ethics, equality and eugenics. 5) Further analysis is needed on costs/benefits of different enhancement methods and priorities between performance vs. development. weak signals were somewhat limited in identifying societal and economic impacts.

1. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Workshop on
Cognitive Enhancement
[Weak signals in Cognitive
Enhancement]
Victor van Rij
Ministry of Education, Culture and Science
Netherlands
07-06-2010
The SESTI project is funded under the European FP7 and researches the application of weak
signals and emerging issues for improving the anticipatory intelligence of the European
Commission and the EU Member States on future developments and issues

2. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
2
Outline
• Cognitive Enhancement & Human evolution
• Future evolution (desire, hope and fear)
• Levels of enhancement (temporarily aid and
enhancing the basics)
• Motives for CE
• Pathways for CE
• Weak signals monitoring the progress towards the
fears and hopes
• Some analysis of results
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

3. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
3
Cognitive enhancement & human
evolution – past and present
• Cognitive Genes (nature) , Richardson and Boyd
• Social learning (culture) , Corbelis
• The use of language and tools (education) , Gibson
and Ingold)
• Communicating knowledge and ways of thinking
over generations by drawing, writing, printing,
video etc)
• Computers , internet (language, visuals , oral
presentation, computing , translating)
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

4. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
4
Cognitive enhancement- future
evolution
• Hopes and desires ; threats and fears
• Hopes : 1. Heal or prevent cognitive impairment 2. Make
perfect humans : Trans – humanism (Kurzweil, Warwick,
Bostrom, Pearson) humans direct connected with
computers, machines and extra sensory systems etc –
genetic modification of human – border between humans
and machines will disappear
• Fears: 1. Brave new world see : Brave new Worlds –
Appleyard – 2. Eugenetics, risks of self selection –
imperfect choices etc Human Genetics Alert, David King –,
3. Loosing human feelings: What computers can’t do,
Dreyfuss
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

5. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
5
Cognitive enhancement- future
evolution (1)
Seeing by sound
or Artificial retina
Additional memory
Superintelligent cyborg
superconnected
with infrared vision
Reading minds to control machines
Healing Parkinson
& Alzheimer???
by deep brain stimulation
Mind controlled humans
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

6. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
6
Cognitive enhancement- future
evolution (2)
In Vitro Fertilisation
By the use of retinal
stemcells
Gene therapy Super Humans
Genetic Screening
Functional analysis of
cognitive genes
Medicines for restoration of
Developmental shortcomings
Imperfect
knowledge
Eugenics
Commercial use
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

7. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
7
Cognitive enhancement- future
evolution (3)
Smart drugs?
Educational , social, psychological , chemical,
physical and nutrional optimalisation
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

8. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
8
Levels of enhancement
• Improve performance of Cognitive - task
performance (using tools as books, pc, internet
etc , drugs , tea ??)
• Improve Cognitive development of an individual
(right nutrients, proper education, culture)
• Improve Cognitive development of population
(educational system, supply of infrastructure -
internet)
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

9. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
9
Main motives for enhancement
• Individual level, being smart pays better , being smart
helps you to find solutions in complex problems , increases
your chance on survival and success
• Parents usually would like to have smart children for that
reason
• Population level , CE of population stands for economic
growth , capacity to resolve challenges of country and of
individuals (staying longer healthy) etc
• Fighting cognitive impairment and deterioration of
cognitive capacities
• Commercial market for CE
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

10. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
0
Main pathways for enhancement
• Social, psychological : socio economic
environment , attention, education, peer
influence NLP etc
• Biological : physical environment (light, sound ) ,
chemical environment (food, pollution,
developmental drugs etc), genetics
• Tools : learning material, PC, internet, smart
interfaces , smart drugs, implants etc
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

11. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
1
Search for weak signals (ratio)
Are there signals that give information on:
• The direction of developments in the different
pathways (towards fears or hopes)
• The speed of these developments
• Possible responses in society and politics
• Emerging policy issues that need to be addressed
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

12. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
2
Search for weak signals (results 1)
40 exemplary signals gathered:
• Mainly on S&T developments (90 %)
• Majority on biological pathways (16) and tools
(15)
• Minority on social and psychological (6) and on
responses in society (4)
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

13. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
3
Analysis (1)
Most eminent (close by) ethical and legal issues:
• Neuro- reading (legal issues)
• The use of neural implants (reading and unconscious influencing)
• Cognitive performance enhancing with drugs (inequality, health risks etc)
• Genetic screening of Cognitive genes and In Vitro Fertilization (Eugenics, new
problem in use of animals , the human- zoo hybrid)
• Drugs influencing the neuro- cognitive development
• Commercial interest
• Knowledge from healing and preventing cognitive impairment may also be
used for (costly) developmental and performance Cognitive Enhancement of
individuals (with problems on the insurance border and further widening of
social, economic divide)
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

14. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
4
Analysis (2)
Public priorities in Cognitive Enhancement
• No studies available on expected cost benefits of different pathways
for general CE , despite proven success of social/psychological
pathway and bio-environmental pathway – both contain still
unknowns (example: smart food and embryonal development)
• Most attention (signals) seem to be related to Enhancing Cognitive
Performance of tasks in stead of development of Cognitive Enhanced
Development
• Choice in research on healing, preventing cognitive impairment
(following nature or use of artificial devices)
• `Promising tools for education (augmented reality, virtual reality and
gaming)
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010

15. Scanning for emerging science and
technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
1
5
Conclusions on the use of weak signals
for an established issue/topic as CE
• Cognitive enhancement is a topic that already had some attention in
the Technology Assessment arena therefore motives , objectives and
objections as well as pathways of CE are more or less clear
• + Our brief weak signals search has focused on the achievement of
success in the direction of the motives and objections in the different
pathways and points to developments that need more urgent policy
attention
• + Due to the TA attention more soft scientific ways (psycho,
sociological, environmental) for CE may slip out of our attention, and
our prioritisation without proper analysis of their comparative value to
more hard pathways. Through weak signal search we may explicit this
kind of gaps.
• - the focus of our search was scientific development, although an
attempt has been made to look to economical and societal signals we
need to improve our search for these kind of signals
• For more unkown topics it is clear that a pre-study is needed to
explicit the motives, objectives and objections before these kind of
weak signals can be identified
Weak signals in cognitive enhancement : 7/6/2010