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While the BCS Standings may have had a mess in determining which teams should play for
college football's national championship, it turns out that Ohio State and Louisiana State may have
been the best possible choice after all.
In analyzing the 10 teams that won this year's bowl lottery with the highest payouts for the 5 major
BCS bowl games, I created a new system to evaluate the teams involved. Rather than add to the
already flooded opinions about who should or should not have been chosen, I have decided to
apply some cold, hard facts that are beyond dispute.
My basis is the actual NCAA regular season team statistics for the 5 main offensive and 5 main
defensive categories. These are Scoring Offense, Total Offense, Rushing Offense, Passing
Offense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Scoring Defense, Total Defense, Rushing Defense, Pass
Defense and Pass Efficiency Defense. A numerical value (1 to 5) was then assigned for the 119
Division 1A schools. The Top 10 in each category got a "Great" rating of 5, the next 20 got a
"Good" rating of 4, the next 59 an "Average" rating of 3, the next 20 a "Poor" rating of 2, and the
bottom 10 a "Terrible" rating of 1.
The Great and Good ratings represent the top 25% of the schools, the Average rating represents
the middle 50%, and the Poor and Terrible ratings represent the bottom 25% of the schools. Given
this system, the best quality game (not necessarily the best game) during the bowl season may
well be the Ohio State-Louisiana State (LSU) match-up in the Allstate BCS National Championship
Game. Here is why:
1) A perfect score in the 5 defensive categories is 25 and Ohio State (11-1) fits the profile with a
perfect 25 score. The Buckeyes lead the nation in 4 of the 5 categories: Scoring Defense, Total
Defense, Pass Defense and Pass Efficiency Defense, and rank No. 3 in Rushing Defense. Ohio
State is, in fact, the best defensive team in the country based on actual results.
2) LSU (11-2) is among the Top 10 teams in 3 defensive categories: No. 3 in Total Defense and
Pass Efficiency Defense, and No. 9 in Pass Defense. The Tigers are Good in the other two
categories for a total score of 23.
3) On offense neither team is really good. Ohio State is Good in 2 categories and Average in 3
others for a 17 total score, while LSU is Good in 3 categories and Average in 2 others for an 18
score.
4) Adding up their offensive and defensive totals, Ohio State scores 42 out of a perfect 50, and
LSU scores 41. This should be a lower scoring defensive battle with all of the earmarks of a great
national championship game going down to the final moments. Call it a toss-up.

2. The Rose Bowl pits Southern California (10-2) and Illinois (9-3) with a distinct advantage for
Southern Cal (USC) because it is the only other team among the 10 BCS bowl contestants that
has a perfect 25 score on the defensive side of the ball. USC, like Ohio State, is in the Top 10
nationally in all 5 defensive categories, ranking No. 2 in Total Defense and No. 4 in both Rushing
Defense and Scoring Defense. Illinois is Good in 2 categories and Average in 3 others for a total
of 17 out of 25.
Both USC and Illinois tie for the lowest total score with 15 among the 5 offensive categories. USC
is only 1 of 2 teams to rate Average in every offensive category. Illinois is Great in Rushing
Offense (No. 5 nationally) and Terrible in Passing Offense (No. 114 nationally).
The question is "Can USC's top-rated rush defense stop Illinois' top-rated rushing offense?" I think
the Trojans can. USC has far more experience at this level than Illinois, and a great defense
generally stops a great offense when the great offense meets better competition.
The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl should prove to be an interesting clash between Oklahoma (11-2) and
West Virginia (10-2). Oklahoma scores out a little better on offense (21 to 18) and West Virginia
scores a little better on defense (22 to 20). Oklahoma's total score is 41, the same as LSU's, and
West Virginia's is 40. Another good contest.
The Oklahoma Sooners are Great in 4 categories: Scoring Offense (No. 3 nationally), Pass
Efficiency Offense (No. 2 nationally), Scoring Defense (No. 9 nationally) and Rushing Defense
(No. 8 nationally). The West Virginia Mountaineers are Great in 3 categories: Rushing Offense
(No. 4 nationally), Total Defense (No. 4 nationally) and Scoring Defense (No. 7 nationally). West
Virginia is Terrible in Passing Offense (No. 113 nationally).
Look for West Virginia to run, run, run and Oklahoma to use its great rushing defense to stop
them. While Oklahoma is no Ohio State defensively, they bring much more experience to the
table, having played in 3 national championship games in the past 7 years. The Sooners beat
Florida State 13-2 for the national title in 2000, lost to LSU 21-14 in 2003 and lost to USC 55-19 in
2004. West Virginia has yet to play in a national championship game.
Oklahoma should win this game. The Sooners have to be smarting after last year's humiliating 43-
42 loss to Boise State in last year's Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma returns to the same bowl game as last
year's loss and has some unfinished business, like winning against a better team this year.
The FedEx Orange Bowl game between Virginia Tech (11-2) and Kansas (11-1) should also be
interesting. Virginia Tech has the 3rd highest total defensive score (24 of 25) among the 10 bowl
teams.
The Hokies are Great in Scoring Defense (No. 2 nationally), Pass Efficiency Defense (No. 4
nationally), Total Defense and Rushing Defense (both No. 5 nationally). Virginia Tech's offense is
Average to Poor so the Hokies better be good on defense.
Kansas has the best offensive score (23 of 25) among the 10 bowl teams. The Jayhawks are
Great in 3 categories: Scoring Offense (No. 2 nationally), Total Offense (No. 6 nationally) and
Pass Efficiency Offense (No. 7 nationally).

3. Kansas is also Great in 3 defensive categories: Scoring Defense (No. 5 nationally), Rushing
Defense (No. 7 nationally) and Pass Efficiency Defense (No. 10 nationally). The Jayhawks and the
only team among the 10 bowl teams rated Great in 6 categories. Their loss to Missouri hurt a
bunch; they just might send Virginia Tech home with a loss.
The Allstate Sugar Bowl game brings Hawaii (12-0) face-to-face with Georgia (10-2). On paper
Hawaii has a much better offense, scoring Great in 4 categories: Scoring Offense and Passing
Offense (both No. 1 nationally), Total Offense and Pass Efficiency Offense (both No. 3 nationally).
The Warriors have Colt Brennan, a quarterback to be feared.
Hawaii's defense in not good but neither is Georgia's offense; the Bulldogs, like the USC Trojans,
are Average across the board. Georgia's defense is better but its Pass Efficiency Defense is
Average. Georgia has played much better competition than Hawaii and should win this game, but I
have seen Colt Brennan pass, and he is THAT good.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Ed Bagley's Blog Publishes Original Articles with Analysis and Commentary on 5 Subjects: Sports,
Movie Reviews, Lessons in Life, Jobs and Careers, and Internet Marketing. My intention is to
inform, educate, delight and motivate you the reader.
Read my articles on "How to Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected
Loss", "The Sagarin Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them" and
my 14 consecutive weekly wrap-up articles on the 2007 College Football Season.
Find my Blog at:
http://www.edbagleyblog.com
[http://www.edbagleyblog.com/Sports.html]
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