Handling the Issue of Uncertainty This module provides a more in depth look at the issues of uncertainty and covers the following: How uncertainties affect vulnerability assessments The categories of uncertainty? How to conduct local uncertainty analysis

1. Training for Adaptation
Developing Adaptation Strategies:
Uncertainty

2. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Uncertainty
Handling the Issue of Uncertainty
This module provides a more in depth look at the issues of uncertainty and covers the following:
• How uncertainties affect vulnerability assessments
• The categories of uncertainty?
• How to conduct local uncertainty analysis
Climate Adaptation
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

3. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Uncertainty
Handling Uncertainties
Uncertainty poses a risk with regard to decision-
making and policy-making.
In dealing with uncertainty and climate change,
politicians should adopt the precautionary principle,
i.e. act cautiously to avoid the worst possible
outcome rather than going ahead as usual while
hoping for the best outcome.
Many adaptation activities can be win-win actions
that also promote mitigation and/ or sustainable
resource use or economic opportunities. In some
cases, a cost- benefit analysis and political
decisions are required in order to map and weight
consequences (e.g. flood walls).
Climate Adaptation
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

4. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Uncertainty
The Magnitude of Uncertainty in Matters of Climate Change Adaptation
Source: IPCC, 2001
Climate Adaptation
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

5. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Uncertainty
The Complexity of Uncertainty in Matters of Climate Change Adaptation
Source: Western Norway Research
Climate Adaptation Institute / Vestlandsforsking
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

6. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Uncertainty
Relationship Between Uncertainties
New climate models are being developed by the
IPCC in preparation for the next assessment
report, and more mechanisms will be included than
in previous models; in particular, modelling how
rising temperature can lead to increased emissions
of methane from melting tundra, and how this in
turn could add to the greenhouse effect (negative
feedback mechanisms).
Model uncertainty will thus be reduced, but
paradoxically, the uncertainty and variability of the
prognoses will in turn increase. In other words, the
next report is going to contain results that are
higher than the current models with regards to
average temperature rise, but more uncertain. This
point shows that uncertainty is a very complex
theme.
Climate Adaptation
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

7. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Uncertainty
The “uncertainty” Dilemma
One the one hand, it is important to be clear about the
large and complex uncertainty associated with climate
change adaptation
At the same time, it is vital to avoid a state of non-action
based on the assumption that “everything is uncertain”
-Thus there is nothing we can do
A solution to this dilemma is to
-Accept that CCA is adaptation to uncertainty as
much as it is adapting to climate change
-Differentiate our understanding of uncertainty
Climate Adaptation
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

8. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Uncertainty
Differentiating Our Understanding of Uncertainty
Location of uncertainty
– Climate
– Nature
– Society
Type of uncertainty
• Basic uncertainty
– Lack of basic knowledge on cause-effect relationships
• Model uncertainty
– Not succeeded in modelling known cause-effect
relationships
• Scale uncertainty
– Models produce a wide variety when downscaling
climate projections
• Data uncertainty
– Lack of input data leads to models producing
unreliable results
Climate Adaptation
C.Aall & D.Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

9. Process Stage 2
Developing Adaptation Strategies: Uncertainty
Uncertainty Template
Location of uncertainty
Uncertainty type Climate Nature Society
Basic uncertainty Will climate change lead to What causes certain types of How will international
more and stronger wind? avalanches? economy develop?
Model uncertainty How may the population
develop in a + 50 year
perspective?
Scale uncertainty How will future precipitation To what extent may we
be in the western part of experience increased risks
Norway? of ”rain flooding”?
Data uncertainty What are the local history of What are the local risks of What are the technical quality
extreme precipitation events? avalanches? of buildings locally?
Source: Western Norway Research
Climate Adaptation Institute / Vestlandsforsking & D.Davies,
C.Aall 2012
Online Training Resource