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A
Summer Internship Project Report
On
“FUNDAMENTALANALYSIS ON
PHARMACEUTICALSECTOR USING RELATIVE
VALUATION MODEL”
Company: Birla Sun Life Insurance Company
Submitted in the partial fulfillmentof the
requirements for
Post GraduateDiploma in Management - PGDM
SUBMITTED BY
Name: Vamsi Krishna Bodavula
PGDM 2 /1546
Batch: 2015-17
UNDER GUIDANCEOF
Prof. Siddhartha Bose
Universal BusinessSchool,
Mumbai (Karjat), 410201
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Acknowledgement
It gives me immense pleasure to present this Concurrent Project Report. However, it would not
have been possible without help and support of all the team members of Birla Sun life
Insurance Company
I would like to thank Prof. Siddhartha Bose for guiding me in my tenure of internship on May
1st 2016 to July 5th 2016. Without their support and guidance, I wouldn’t have come so far to
prepare this report.
I would like to express my thankfulness to Universal Business School, who has given me great
opportunity to work on this project.
I am also grateful to my loving parents and my kind friends whose prayers, affection and support
are always a source of encouragement. Their suggestions and supply of information were really
very valuable and helpful to me. Their continuous encouragement and support helped me for
completing this project successfully.
Vamsi Krishna Bodavula,
PGDM 2 /1546
Specialization: Finance,
Universal Business School, Mumbai (Karjat).
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CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the project entitled “Fundamental Analysis On Pharmaceutical Sector Using
Relative Valuation Model”, submitted to Universal Business School, Mumbai (Karjat) in the
partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the Post Graduate Diploma in Management
(PGDM) embodies the results of bonafide project work carried out by Vamsi Krishna Bodavula
under my guidance and supervision.
To the best of my knowledge the results embodied in this project have not been submitted to any
other university or institute for the award of Degree or Diploma. The assistance and help received
during the course of this investigation has been duly acknowledged.
Project Guide: Siddhartha Bose Program Director (PGDM): Prof. Vijay Tandon
Date: 29/08/2016
Place: Mumbai (Karjat)
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DECLARATION
This is to declare that I Vamsi Krishna Bodavula of Universal Business School, Mumbai
(Karjat), PGDM batch 2015-2017, has given original data and information to the best of my
knowledge in the project report titled Fundamental Analysis On Pharmaceutical Sector Using
Relative Valuation Model is a record of independent work carried out by me under the guidance
and supervision of the Prof. Siddhartha Bose towards the partial fulfilment of requirement for the
PGDM course.
I also agree in principal not to share the vital information with any other person outside the
organization and that I have not submitted it for any award or any other title, degree or diploma.
Date: 29/08/2016
Place: Mumbai (Karjat)
Name: Vamsi Krishna Bodavula
PGDM 2 /1546
Specialization: Finance
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CHAPTER NO TOPIC PAGE NO.
PART A
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Researchback ground 10
1.2 Detail of company 11-16
1.3 Pharmaceutical Sector 17
1.4 Needfor study 18
1.5 Objective of study 18
1.6 Scope of the study 18
Chapter 2 Review of literature 19-21
Chapter 3 ResearchMethodology
3.1 Type of research Design 22
3.2 Sources of Data (primary and secondary) 22
PART B
Chapter 4 Analysis and interpretation of data 24-53
List of Table 24-53
List of Figure 24-53
Findings & Suggestions 47-50
Chapter 5 Conclusion 54
Chapter 6 Recommendations 55
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Chapter 7 Limitations 56
Chapter 8 Bibliography 57
Financial Tear Sheet 58-59
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PART A
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This project report is about the ‘Equity research in pharmaceutical sector using relative valuation
model’. It consist the study of pharmaceutical sector on macroeconomic and microeconomic basis.
E-I-C framework is used for equity research. It will be helpful for investors who are looking for
investment in pharmaceutical sector companies. It will give them approach for investment in
whichever sector they want to invest.
Also, sectorial mutual fund in pharmaceutical sector (individually) and mutual fund with diverse
sectors (team) are also created. Their performance is analyzed with respect to benchmark NIFTY
500 index. Depending upon the analysis we reached to conclusion whether our mutual fund is
really performing well or not compared to market.
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CHAPTER –1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 ResearchBackground:
“This study suggests thatpeople are reluctant while investing in stock market
due to lack of knowledge…”
This is the project on the analyzing of equities to invest the money to future for get higher return
on investment. This is the project report to all investor who want to invest their money in equities.
But they should analysis the securities before to invest because the money has very much value in
our life...
I choose this project to do because I want to analysis the equities for investor point of view so they
can get good return in future, by using fundamental and technical analysis of securities and try to
understand the movement and performance of stocks and also try to know the factors that affect
the movement of stock prices in the Indian stock market.
Through this project we were also able to understand, what are the companies’ positive points, on
the basis of which we come to know what, can be the basis of pitching to a potential client.
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1.2 Details of Company
Established in 2000, Birla Sun Life Insurance Company Limited (BSLI) is a joint venture
between the Aditya Birla Group, a well-known and trusted name globally amongst Indian
conglomerates and Sun Life Financial Inc., leading international financial services organization
from Canada. The local knowledge of the Aditya Birla Group combined with the domain expertise
of Sun Life Financial Inc., offers a formidable protection for its customers’ future.
With an experience of over 10 years, BSLI has contributed significantly to the growth and
development of the life insurance industry in India and currently ranks amongst the top 5 private
life insurance companies in the country.
It is known for its innovation and creating industry benchmarks, BSLI has several firsts to its
credit. It was the first Indian Insurance Company to introduce “Free Look Period” and the same
was made mandatory by IRDA for all other life insurance companies. Additionally, BSLI
pioneered the launch of Unit Linked Life Insurance plans amongst the private players in India.
To establish credibility and further transparency, BSLI also enjoys the prestige to be the originator
of practice to disclose portfolio on monthly basis. These category development initiatives have
helped BSLI be closer to its policy holders’ expectations, which gets further accentuated by the
complete bouquet of insurance products (viz. pure term plan, life stage products, health plan and
retirement plan) that the company offers.
Add to this, the extensive reach through its network of 600 branches and 175,000 empanelled
advisors. This impressive combination of domain expertise, product range, reach and ears on
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ground, helped BSLI cover more than 2 million lives since it commenced operations and establish
a customer base spread across more than 1500 towns and cities in India. To ensure that our
customers have an impeccable experience, BSLI has ensured that it has lowest outstanding claims
ratio of 0.00% for FY 2008-09. Additionally, BSLI has the best Turn Around Time according to
LOMA on all claims Parameters. Such services are well supported by sound financials that the
Company has. The AUM of BSLI stood at Rs. 8165 crores as on February 28, 2009, while as on
March 31, 2009, the company has a robust capital base of Rs. 2000 crore.
VISION
To be a leader and role model in a broad based and integrated financial services business.
MISSION
To help people mitigate risks of life, accident, health, and money at all stages and under all
circumstances.
Enhance the financial future of our customers including enterprises.
VALUES
 Integrity
 Commitment
 Passion
 Seamlessness
 Speed
A US $28 billion corporation, the Aditya Birla Group is in the league of Fortune 500 worldwide.
It is anchored by an extraordinary force of 100,000 employees, belonging to 25 different
nationalities. The group operates in 25 countries across six continents – truly India's first
multinational corporation.
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Aditya Birla Group through Aditya Birla Financial Services Group (ABFSG), has a strong
presence across various financial services verticals that include life insurance, fund management,
distribution & wealth management, security based lending, insurance broking, private equity and
retail broking. The seven companies representing ABFSG are Birla Sun Life Insurance
Company, Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company, Aditya Birla Money, Aditya Birla
Finance, Birla Insurance Advisory & Broking Services, Aditya Birla Capital Advisors and
Apollo Sindhoori Capital Investment. In FY 2008-09, the consolidated revenues of ABFSG from
these businesses crossed Rs. 4763 crore, registering a growth rate of 36%.
Sun Life Financial is a leading international financial services organization providing a diverse
range of protection and wealth accumulation products and services to individuals and corporate
customers. Chartered in 1865, Sun Life Financial and its partners today have operations in key
markets worldwide, including Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Hong
Kong, the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, India, China and Bermuda. As of December 31, 2008,
the Sun Life Financial group of companies had total assets under management of $381 billion.
SWOT ANALYSIS
STRENGTH:
1. Has Network of 600 branches and advisors spread over 1500 towns in India having over
130,000 advisors
2. Backed by Aditya Birla Brand and Sun Life financial services.
3. Emphasis on customer satisfaction through transparent functioning.
4. Strong capital base.
WEAKNESS:
1. Low presence in rural market.
2. Lesser advertising as compared to competitors.
OPPORTUNITY:
1. Growing potential in the rural market.
2. Alignment with Government Schemes.
3. Better awareness amongst people for getting insurance.
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AWARDS
At Birla Sun Life Insurance, winning is a way of life. Our innovative solutions and customer-
friendly services have been admired, appreciated and rewarded by customers and the industry at
large.
 Recruiting and Staffing Best in Class Awards.
 Outlook Money Awards 2004 BSLI - Best Life Insurer (Runner Up) 2004 TROPHY
 The 8th Asia Insurance Industry Awards 2004 - Birla Sun Life Insurance was among the top
five nominees in the category.
 The Indo-Canadian Business Chamber- BSLI awarded for its 'Successful Performance' for 4
years April 2005.
 Birla Sun Life Insurance was presented 'The Hewitt Best Employers in India Awards 2004'
Trophy.
 Birla Sun Life Insurance was awarded 'The Great Place to Work Seminar Series 2007’
Presented by Anil Sachdev (Chairman & MD of Grow Talent Company Ltd) Robert Levering
(Co-founder Great Place to Work Institute) and Jehangir Pocha (Business World Magazine).
 The Bhartiya Shiromani Puraskar awarded to BSLI at the seminar on "Economic
Development” New Delhi, on February 13, 2006. This is a Certificate of Excellence for
Enhancing the image of India presented by Dr. Bhishma Narain Singh (Former Governor of
Tamil Nadu & Assam) in association with the "Institute of Economic Studies (IES)".
 Hewitt Best Employers in India 2004.
 Sponsorship Acknowledgement for - The Asia Insurance Review.
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FUTURE
BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLAN
Birla Sun Life Insurance is one of the few Indian companies to have a fully operational Business
Continuity Plan (BCP) to ensure minimal impact to the organization, its people, and most
importantly, its customers. Our Business Continuity Planning (BCP) Program is a response plan
which would ensure that in the event of a disaster we would be able to restore and recover
operations for critical processes within a predetermined time after the disaster.
BSLI’S BUSINESS CONTINUITY MANAGEMENT POLICY
To have a planned response in the event of any contingency ensuring recovery of critical activities
at agreed levels within agreed timeframe thereby complying with various regulatory requirements
and minimizing the potential business impact to BSLI. Additionally, to create a system that fosters
continuous improvement of business continuity management.
BUSINESS CONTINUITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OBJECTIVES (BCMS):
The objectives of BSLI's BCMS are as follows
 Ensuring a Proactive response to any contingency
 Ensuring recovery of identified critical activities within agreed timeframe.
 Ensuring that we adhere to our clients, contractual, legal & regulatory requirements.
PROGRAMME OVERVIEW
As part of our Business Continuity Plan, we have a documented crisis response and recovery
procedure for quick response and stabilization of the situation, and a business continuity
procedure to ensure recovery.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF OUR PLAN DOCUMENT:
 Alternate recovery sites if primary location is unavailable
 Assurance to customers that they will continue to receive optimum customer services at all
times
 Communication with customers, employees and other stakeholders
 Crisis Management & incident response
 Data back-up, data and system recovery
 Recovery of all mission-critical business functions and supporting systems.
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1.3 Details about PharmaceuticalSector
The number of purely Indian pharma companies is fairly low. Indian pharma industry is mainly
operated as well as controlled by dominant foreign companies having subsidiaries in India due to
availability of cheap labor in India at low cost. In 2002, over 20,000 registered drug manufacturers
in India sold $9 billion worth of formulations and bulk drugs. 85% of these formulations were sold
in India while over 60% of the bulk drugs were exported, mostly to the United States and Russia.
Most of the players in the market are small-to-medium enterprises; 250 of the largest companies
control 70% of the Indian market. Thanks to the 1970 Patent Act, multinationals represent only
35% of the market, down from 70% thirty years ago.
Most pharma companies operating in India, even the multinationals, employ Indians almost
exclusively from the lowest ranks to high level management. Homegrown pharmaceuticals, like
many other businesses in India, are often a mix of public and private enterprise.
In terms of the global market, India currently holds a modest 1–2% share, but it has been growing
at approximately 10% per year. India gained its foothold on the global scene with its innovatively
engineered generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), and it is now seeking to
become a major player in outsourced clinical research as well as contract manufacturing and
research. There are 74 US FDA-approved manufacturing facilities in India, more than in any other
country outside the U.S, and in 2005, almost 20% of all Abbreviated New Drug Applications
(ANDA) to the FDA are expected to be filed by Indian companies. Growth in other fields
notwithstanding, generics are still a large part of the picture. London research company Global
Insight estimates that India’s share of the global generics market will have risen from 4% to 33%
by 2007.The Indian pharmaceutical industry has become the third largest producer in the world
and is poised to grow into an industry of $20 billion in 2015 from the current turnover of $12
billion.
Objective:
The main objective of this project to understand that proper analysis of a company minimizes the
risk of losing money in stock market of any investor.
The other objective is to make people aware that other than cash market there is future and option
which is well known as derivative market to invest. In this they can earn profit even if they are in
loss in cash market.
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Scope:
The scope of project is limited to Understanding the basics of Fundamental analysis and Technical
analysis and apply it to take a decision of investing in Pharmaceutical Sector Stocks and F&O
strategies for the same.
Assumptions:
This project is prepared on the assumption that most of the investment in stock market is done by
the brokers and not by the common man and on the other hand there are many people who want to
invest in stock market but fears as they think that it is luck game which is not totally true and this
might change their way of thinking.
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CHAPTER –2
LITERATURE REVIEW
Pharmaceuticalindustry would grow at 19% in 2013:MorganStanley
January 10, 2013 | Jwalit Vyas, ET Bureau
MUMBAI: According to report by Morgan Stanley, Indian pharmaceutical industry would grow
at 19% in 2013. “They expect the intellectual property investments in the past few years to start
bearing fruits in US and EU markets in FY13. There will be new drug launches, new drug filings
and Phase II clinic trials throughout the year. ", said Samir Baisiwala, senior analyst with Morgan
Stanley in his report.
Healthcare and pharmaceuticalindustry stimulating demand for hiring talent
October 1, 2012
TimesJobs.com Bureau Where global market slowdown has affected the major employment
generators such as IT/Telecom, BFSi and ITeS, Healthcare/Pharmaceutical sector reported
enhanced hiring activity during the first half of 2012, reveals TimesJobs.com Biannual
Recruite X. "The Indian Healthcare sector is expected to reach US$ 100 billion by 2015 from the
current US$ 65 billion, growing at around 20 % a year, according to rating agency Fitch.
Government may ease FDInorms in pharmaceuticalindustry
July 25, 2012 | Khomba Singh & Deepshikha Sikarwar, ET Bureau
NEW DELHI: The government is likely to take a less harsh stand on foreign direct investment
(FDI) in pharmaceutical companies to ensure a balance between public health concerns and the
need to attract investments. An intermenstrual group set up by the finance ministry has favored
that all brown field FDI in pharmaceuticals up to 49% stake should be allowed under the
automatic route, two officials familiar with the development told ET.
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Government to make pharma marketing code mandatory: Hansraj
GangaramAhir
March 15, 2016 | PTI
NEW DELHI: Government has decided to make Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing
Practice (UCPMP) mandatory in order to control unethical practices in the industry, Parliament
was informed today. In a written reply to the Lok Sabha, Minister of State for Chemicals and
Fertilizers Hansraj Gangaram Ahir said the government had prepared a draft UCPMP which was
adopted voluntarily with effect from January 1, 2015 for 6 months by the pharmaceutical industry.
Union Budget 2012:Pharmaceuticalindustry seekshigherexpenditure on
R&D
March 16, 2012 | Agencies
NEW DELHI: The pharmaceutical industry in its prebudget wish list has asked the Finance
Minister Pranab Mukherjee to incentivise the sector to promote higher spending in research and
development. The industry has also sought a reduction in taxes and duties on life saving drugs and
active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) to provide a fillip to its growth. Budget at
ET: Budget 2012 | Union Budget.
Mostpharma stocks couldbecome 5 to 10 baggers in 57 years;Buy on
declines:Experts
March 11, 2015 | Kshitij Anand
NEW DELHI: Analysts at top brokerage firms remain confident that rally in most of the pharma
stocks is justified, and there is also room for further upside. Long term investors should look at
buying top pharma stocks on every decline in markets, they say. "I am very believer in a
pharmaceutical story and as I keep saying for years now that this is one story which you do not
sell. This is a story where correction means a buy.
Sun PharmaceuticalIndustries Q3 net profit surges threefold to Rs 1,417
crore
February 12, 2016 | PTI
NEW DELHI: Sun Pharmaceutical Industries today posted over threefold jump in consolidated
net profit at Rs 1,416.60 crore for the third quarter ended December 31. The drug major had posted
a net profit of Rs 395.33 crore during the same period of previous fiscal. Net sales of the company
rose to Rs 7,046.57 crore for the third quarter as against Rs 6,885.46 crore in the same period of
previous fiscal, Sun Pharma said in a regulatory filing.
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James Clausen(2009),in this article he barfly express about the liquidity ratio. He Pronounce
that it is analysis of the financial statements is used to measure company performance. It also
analyses of the income statement and balance sheet. Investors and lending institutions will often
use ratio analyses of the financial statements to determine the 11 company’s profitability and
liquidity. If the ratios indicate poor performance, investors may be reluctant to invest. Therefore,
the current ratio or working capital ratio, measures current assets against current liabilities. The
current ratio measures the company’s ability to pay back its short-term debt obligations with its
current assets. He thinks a higher ratio indicates the company is better equipped to pay off short-
term debt with current assets. Wherefore, the acid test ratio or quick ratio, measures quick assets
against current liabilities. Quick assets are considered assets that can be quickly converted into
cash. Generally, they are current assets less inventory.
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CHAPTER –3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Types of researchdesign
It is an exploratory research design. It is a research conducted for a problem that has not been
clearly defined. The name states merely to explore the research questions and does not intend to
offer final and conclusive solutions to existing problems.
This research gives an overview of fund allocation of media companies, fundamental analysis and
technical analysis and ratio analysis.
3.2 Sources ofData
Secondarydata
Exploratory research is often secondary research such as reviewing available data and analyzing
the current situation.
Data is been extracted through secondary sources such as web, journals, relevant books etc.
In this research, company financials, charts and graphs are been extracted from various web
sources such as Equity masters, Money control, IBEF and stock exchange websites.
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PART B
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CHAPTER –4
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
PharmaceuticalSectorAnalysis
• The Indian Pharmaceutical market (IPM) accounts for approx. 1.4% of the global
pharmaceutical industry in value terms and 10% in the volume terms. The IPM is
valued at Rs 860bn for the year ending March 2015. The growth in 2015 stood at
12.9%. Owing to robust historical growth and future prospects, many MNC companies
have active presence in the Indian pharmaceutical space.
• The IPM is highly fragmented with about 24,000 players (330 in the organized sector).
The top ten companies including domestic and MNC companies make up for more than
a third of the market. The market is dominated majorly by branded generics, which
constitutes nearly 70% to 80% of market.
• Besides the domestic market, Indian pharmaceutical companies also have a large chunk
of their revenues coming from exports. Major companies are focusing on the generics
market in the US, Europe and semi-regulated markets; others are focusing on custom
manufacturing for innovator companies. Biopharmaceuticals is also increasingly
becoming an area of interest given the complexity in manufacture and limited
competition.
• The past few years have been glorious ones for the Indian companies, as major
blockbusters lost their patent protection, paving way for generics. However, every
passing year is leaving lower patented drug opportunities for the Indian companies for
the launch of generics. Thus, Indian pharmaceutical companies have increased their
R&D expenses. The companies are spending more to establish niche product portfolios
for the future.
• The year gone by was one where M&A activity continued to attract interest of
companies globally. This included many Indian names too. Indian companies such as
Lupin, Cipla, Dr Reddy’s and others also showed keen interest. Lupin announced a
mega deal worth US$ 800 m for acquiring Gavis. On the other hand, Cipla and Dr
Reddy’s too made acquisitions in the US and India respectively.
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RATIOS
Net Profit Margin (Return on Sales)
a measure of net income dollars generated by each dollar of sales.
Formula:
Net Income
Net Sales
Debt to Equity
Indicates how well creditors are protected in case of the company's insolvency.
Formula:
Total Debt
Total Equity
Interest Coverage Ratio (Times InterestEarned)
indicates a company's capacity to meet interest payments. Uses EBIT (Earnings before
Interest and Taxes)
Formula:
EBIT
Interest Expense
Sales to Total Assets Ratio
Sales to Total Assets ratio indicate how efficiently the firm generates sales revenue on each
dollar of assets. It is defined as the total assets divided by the turnoverof the firm.
Formula:
Sales to Total Assets = Sales / Total Assets
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FUNDAMENTALANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing its financial statements and health, its
management and competitive advantages, and its competitors and markets. When applied to
futures and forex, it focuses on the overall state of the economy, interest rates, production,
earnings, and management. When analyzing a stock, futures contract, or currency using
fundamental analysis there are two basic approaches one can use; bottom up analysis and top
down analysis. The term is used to distinguish such analysis from other types of investment
analysis, such as quantitative analysis and technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis is performed on historical and present data, but with the goal of making
financial forecasts. There are several possible objectives:
 To conduct a company stock valuation and predict its probable price evolution.
 To make a projection on its business performance,
 To evaluate its management and make internal business decisions,
 To calculate its credit risk.
Fundamental analysis includes:
1. Economic analysis
2. Industry analysis
3. Company analysis
On the basis of this three analysis the intrinsic value of the shares are determined. This is
considered as the true value of the share. If the intrinsic value is higher than the market price it
is recommended to buy the share but if it is equal to market price hold the share and if it is less
than the market price sell the shares.
4.1 Valuation of Stock
We have considered only large cap stocks from pharma sector (i.e. companies having market
capitalization more than 5000 crore rupees) for investment purpose. Then we can decide whether
stock is undervalued or overvalued based on sectorial P/E ratio. If P/E ratio of company is less
than sectorial P/E ratio, then stock is considered undervalued else it is overvalued
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Table-1
Valuation of Companies BasedOn P/E
Sr No Company name Market Cap (Rs. Cr.) Last Price P/E Sector P/E UV/OV
1 SunPharma 186,258.69 773.90 39.11 34.23 OverValued
2 Lupin 66,652.10 1478.40 23.06 34.23 Under Valued
3 Dr ReddysLabs 55,379.53 3240.65 40.80 34.23 OverValued
4 AurobindoPharma 42,298.98 722.85 26.07 34.23 Under Valued
5 Cipla 39,296.27 489.00 28.09 34.23 Under Valued
6 CadilaHealth 32,759.76 320.00 16.57 34.23 Under Valued
7 GlaxoSmithKline 29,429.64 3474.45 78.43 34.23 OverValued
8 DivisLabs 29,281.18 1098.75 26.33 34.23 Under Valued
9 Piramal Enter 24,069.10 1394.80 22.68 34.23 Under Valued
10 TorrentPharma 22,529.47 1331.35 12.78 34.23 Under Valued
11 Glenmark Pharma 21,987.80 779.25 14.90 34.23 Under Valued
12 Biocon 15,142.00 757.10 30.00 34.23 Under Valued
13 AjantaPharma 13,068.30 1484.95 31.53 34.23 Under Valued
14
Alembic
Pharmaceuticals 10,289.20 545.80 14.74 34.23 Under Valued
15 Natco Pharma 10,272.80 589.80 57.60 34.23 OverValued
16 Wockhardt 9,927.01 898.30 31.22 34.23 Under Valued
17 Sanofi India 9,703.26 4227.35 30.28 34.23 Under Valued
18 AbbottIndia 9,587.69 4514.10 36.95 34.23 OverValued
19 StridesShasun 9,508.54 1068.25 54.78 34.23 OverValued
20 Pfizer 8,495.35 1861.25 38.22 34.23 OverValued
21 Ipca Labs 5,928.20 469.75 64.79 34.23 OverValued
34.23
As on 26 August 2016
After comparing power sector P/E with individual company P/E we found stocks Sun Pharma,
Dr Reddys Labs, GlaxoSmith Kline, Nacto Pharma, Abbott India, Stride Shasun, Pfizer, Ipca
Labs are overvalued because their P/E ratio is more than average P/E for power sector.
Whereas remaining companies are undervalued stocks since their P/E ratio is less than sectorial
P/E for pharma sector.
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4.2 Value picks
After valuation of stocks and bifurcating them into undervalued and overvalued stocks, to pick
value stocks we consider undervalued stocks only. Then we check whether EPS of these stocks is
increased or not compared to last year performance. If EPS is increased, then we consider it as
value pick for portfolio.
Table-2
Sr No. UndervaluedCompanies EPS 2015 EPS 2016 % Changes Value Pick
1 Lupin 53.41 64.1 20.01% Yes
2 AurobindoPharma 52.01 27.73 -46.68%
3 Cipla 14.71 17.41 18.35% Yes
4 CadilaHealth 62.08 19.31 -68.89%
5 DivisLabs 63.82 41.73 -34.61%
6 Piramal Enter 21.60 61.49 184.68% Yes
7 TorrentPharma 36.83 104.20 182.92% Yes
8 Glenmark 37.14 52.31 40.85% Yes
9 Biocon 18.06 40.44 123.92% Yes
10 AjantaPharma 34.84 47.10 3518.94% Yes
11 AlembicPharma 15.20 37.03 143.62% Yes
12 Wockhardt 30.17 2.97 -90.16%
13 Sanofi India 114.46 139.59 21.96% Yes
From table, we can see that there is EPS growth for stocks Lupin, Cipla, Piramal Enter, Torrent
Pharma, Glen mark, Biocon, Ajanta Pharma, Alembic Pharma, Sanofi India hence we selected
them as value stocks.
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4.3 Long Term Price Target
Long term price target gives investor idea till which point he/she should hold the share. Long term
price target is product of sectorial P/E and EPS of company. Sectorial P/E we have calculated in
table 1. Here in the following table we have considered market price of share as on 24 June, 2016.
Table-3
Sr No. Value Pick Stock Last Price Sector P/E EPS LTPT
1 Lupin 773.9 34.23 64.1 1532.95
2 Cipla 489.00 34.23 17.41 501.3
3 Piramal Enter 1394.80 34.23 61.49 791.55
4 TorrentPharma 1331.35 34.23 104.20 1352.8
5 Glenmark 779.25 34.23 52.31 1400.95
6 Biocon 757.10 34.23 40.44 1384.2612
7 AjantaPharma 1484.95 34.23 47.10 1516
8 AlembicPharma 545.80 34.23 37.03 545.45
9 Sanofi India 4227.35 34.23 139.59 4271
So,this givesinvestorideathatatwhichpointtheyshouldsell the value stocksinwhichtheyinvested
theirmoney.Investorscancalculate theirapproximate profitusingandcompare itwiththeir
expectation.Itgivesthemroughideawhetherthe stockinwhichtheyare investingwillfulfiltheir
expectationornot.
31 | P a g e
4.4 Growth Picks
For selecting growth picks we consider overvalued stocks only. Then we calculate PEG ratio for
each stock. If PEG ratio is below 1 then we take it as growth stock in our portfolio.
Table-4
Sr
No. Over Valued P/E
EPS
2015
EPS
2016 EPS growth PEG
Growth Pick
(peg< 1)
1 SunPharma 39.11 26.50 24.23 -856.60% -4.565704846
2 Dr ReddysLabs 40.80 98.60 79.42 -1945.23% -2.097638077
3 GlaxoSmithKline 78.43 55.7 44.3 -2046.68% -3.832063384
4 Natco Pharma 57.60 46.17 10.24 -7782.11% -0.740129081
5 AbbottIndia 36.95 107.75 122.18 1339.21% 2.758811341
6 StridesShasun 54.78 89.36 19.50 -7817.82% -0.700733482
7 Pfizer 38.22 15.26 48.70 21913.50% 0.174407041 Buy
8 Ipca Labs 64.79 20.29 7.25 -6426.81% -1.008168765
So, from PEG ratio calculation in above table we can see that for Pfizer PEG is below one so
ideally Pfizer should be selected as growth pick. But Natco Pharma has negative P/E hence it is
discarded. While stock of Abbott India have PEG more than 1 hence not considered in our
growth pick portfolio.
32 | P a g e
4.5 Ranking of stocks inportfolio
After selecting value picks and growth picks we will rank them based on four parameters ie.
Valuations, profit margin, return on equity and P/E ratio. As ranking is based on P/E ratio lesser
the P/E ratio highest is the rank, higher the P/E ratio lowest is the rank.
Table-5
Rank Company Name P/E LTPT No. of Share Allocationof Fund
1 TorrentPharma 12.78 1352.8 16800 22,727,272
2 AlembicPharma 14.74 545.45 37500 20,454,540
3 Glenmark 14.9 791.55 22970 18,181,818
4 Piramal Enter 22.68 1400.95 11356 15,909,091
5 Lupin 23.06 1532.95 8896 13,636,364
6 Cipla 28.09 501.3 22668 11,363,637
7 Wockhardt 31.22 914.1 9945 9,090,910
8 Sanofi India 30.28 4271 1596 6,818,183
9 AjantaPharma 31.53 1516 2998 4,545,456
10 Pfizer 38.22 1867.15 1217 2,272,729
AUM 125,000,000
TorrentPharmaceutical isrankedfirstsince ithaslowestP/Eratioi.e.12.78 as amongstall whereas
Pfizerisrankedlastsince ithas highestP/Eratio i.e.38.22 as. So fromthisrankingof stocks we
understandpriorityinwhichwe shouldallocate fundforstocksinourportfolio.
33 | P a g e
4.6 SectorialMutual Fund
After ranking stocks, we need to prepare sectorial mutual fund. For this we assumed Asset under
management (AUM) is 125000000 crore rupees and we created 12.5 crore number of units. Then,
Net asset value (NAV) will be AUM/Number of units=INR 10. Then we allocated INR 125000000
Crore based on the total points we obtained for each stock in ranking section table.
Table-6
Rank Stock in Portfolio
Amount in Rs
allocatedon
24-6-16
CMP on
24-6-16
No of
shares
CMP on
29-6-16
AUM on
29-6-16
CMP on
05-7-16
AUM on
05-7-16
1 TorrentPharma 22,727,272 1352.8 16800 1343.4 22569120 1398.65 23497320
2 AlembicPharma 20,454,540 545.45 37500 547.95 20548125 578.1 21678750
3 Glenmark 18,181,818 791.55 22970 792.3 18199131 824.9 18947953
4 Piramal Enter 15,909,091 1400.95 11356 1399.7 15894993.2 1506.85 17111788.6
5 Lupin 13,636,364 1532.95 8896 1532.9 13636678.4 1562.9 13903558.4
6 Cipla 11,363,637 501.3 22668 502.45 11389536.6 507 11492676
7 Wockhardt 9,090,910 914.1 9945 914.85 9098183.25 956.4 9511398
8 Sanofi India 6,818,183 4271 1596 4295 6854820 4662.95 7442068.2
9 AjantaPharma 4,545,456 1516 2998 1513.05 4536123.9 1586.2 4755427.6
10 Pfizer 2,272,729 1867.15 1217 1874.2 2280901.4 1935.25 2355199.25
AUM 125,000,000 125007612.8 130696139.1
34 | P a g e
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Despite all the fancy and exotic tools, it employs, technical analysis really just studies supply and
demand in a market in an attempt to determine what direction, or trend, will continue in the future.
In other words, technical analysis attempts to understand the emotions in the market by studying
the market itself, as opposed to its components. If you understand the benefits and limitations of
technical analysis, it can give you a new set of tools or skills that will enable you to be a better
trader or investor.
Technical analysts seek to identify price patterns and trends in financial markets and attempt to
exploit those patterns. While technicians use various methods and tools, the study of price charts
is primary. Technicians especially search for archetypal patterns, such as the well-known head and
shoulders or double top reversal patterns, study indicators such as moving averages, and look for
forms such as lines of support, resistance, channels, and more obscure formations such as flags,
pennants, balance days and cup and handle patterns.
Technical analysts also extensively use indicators, which are typically mathematical
transformations of price or volume. These indicators are used to help determine whether an asset
is trending, and if it is, its price direction.
Technicians seek to forecast price movements such that large gains from successful trades exceed
more numerous but smaller losing trades, producing positive returns in the long run through proper
risk control and money management.
Technical Analysis is of two types:
1. Short Term Analysis: Based on candle sticks.
2. Long Term Analysis: Based on line graph.
35 | P a g e
Short Term Analysis
Originating in Japan over 300 years ago, candlestick charts have become quite popular in recent
years. For a candlestick chart, the open, high, low and close are all required. A daily candlestick
is based on the open price, the intraday high and low, and the close.
White (green) candlesticks form when the close is higher than the open and black (red) candlesticks
form when the close is lower than the open. The white and black portion formed from the open
and close is called the body (white body or black body). The lines above and below are called
shadows and represent the high and low.
Doji
Doji are important candlesticks that provide information on their own and also feature in a number
of important patterns. Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The length
of the upper and lower shadows can vary and the resulting candlestick looks like a cross, inverted
cross or plus sign. Alone, doji are neutral patterns. Any bullish or bearish bias is based on preceding
price action and future confirmation. The word "Doji" refers to both the singular and plural form.
36 | P a g e
The Hanging Man
The hanging man is a bearish signal that appears in an uptrend and warns of a potential trend
reversal. The candlestick pattern is called the hanging man because the candlestick resembles a
hanging man with dangling legs. The long lower shadow of the hanging man is generally a bullish
signal, indicating that demand for the underlying security forced the price into the upper third of
the price range for that period. For this reason, confirmation of a trend reversal is should be sought.
At the very least, the candlestick following the hanging man should close below the real body of
the hanging man. Confirmation may also
The hanging man and hammer patterns are trend reversal patterns that consist of the same type of
candlestick, which are called umbrella lines because of their shape. In other words, both the
hanging man and the hammer pattern have the same shape, though the one is bearish while the
other is relatively bullish. What distinguishes the two is the nature of the trend that they appear in.
If the umbrella line appears in an uptrend then it is known as the hanging man pattern, and if it
appears in a downtrend, then it is known as the hammer pattern. Both are a single candlestick
pattern in which the candlestick consists of a real body that is located at the top of the candlestick
with little or no upper shadow and a relatively long lower shadow, which should be at least twice
the length of the real body. The color of the hanging man or hammer candlestick is not important.
The Hammer
The Japanese name for the hammer pattern is takuri, which means testing the water for its depth.
The hammer pattern is quite similar in appearance to the hanging man pattern but it occurs in a
downtrend and is a bullish signal that warns of a possible trend reversal. The candlestick is called
a hammer because it hammers out a base at the bottom of the downtrend. The long lower shadow
of the hammer is a bullish signal regardless of the color of the candlestick's real body. It indicates
that the underlying sold off sharply but demand returned, forcing the price back up to close at or
near the high for that period.
The Inverted Hammer
The inverted hammer and shooting star look exactly alike, but have different implications based
on previous price action. Both candlesticks have small real bodies (black or white), long upper
shadows and small or non-existent lower shadows. These candlesticks mark potential trend
reversals, but require confirmation before action.
The Shooting Star
The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after an advance and in the star position,
hence its name. A shooting star can mark a potential trend reversal or resistance level. The
candlestick forms when prices gap higher on the open, advance during the session and close well
off their highs. The resulting candlestick has a long upper shadow and small black or white body.
To indicate a substantial reversal, the upper shadow should relatively long and at least 2 times
the length of the body. Bearish confirmation is required after the shooting star and can take the
form of a gap down or long black candlestick on heavy volume.
37 | P a g e
The inverted hammer looks exactly like a shooting star, but forms after a decline or downtrend.
Inverted hammers represent a potential trend reversal or support levels. After a decline, the long
upper shadow indicates buying pressure during the session. However, the bulls were not able to
sustain this buying pressure and prices closed well off of their highs to create the long upper
shadow. Because of this failure, bullish confirmation is required before action. An inverted
hammer followed by a gap up or long white candlestick with heavy volume could act as bullish
confirmation.
Now let us see the candlestick pattern for the stocks in our portfolio and observe whether these
candlesticks are there in this pattern or not.
The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. If this candlestick
forms during an advance, then it is called a Hanging Man. After hanging man there is a white
candle hence the trend changes.
38 | P a g e
The graph shows Doji. Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The
length of the upper and lower shadows can vary, and the resulting candlestick looks like,
either, a cross, inverted cross, or plus sign. In case of Cipla after Doji trend changes but in
Pfizer trend doesn’t change as the same trend is followed.
39 | P a g e
The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. If this candlestick forms
during an advance, then it is called a Hanging Man. After hanging man there is a white candle
hence the trend changes.
40 | P a g e
In the graph of Lupin it shows Inverted Hammer. It shows one-day bullish reversal pattern. In a
downtrend, the open is lower, and then it trades higher, but closes near its open, therefore looking
like an inverted lollipop. After inverted hammer the trend remains same.
.
The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. If this candlestick forms
during an advance, then it is called a Hanging Man. Afterhangingmanthere isa white candle hence
the trendchanges.
41 | P a g e
The graph shows Doji as well as Shooting Star.
 Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The length of the upper and
lower shadows can vary, and the resulting candlestick looks like, either, a cross, inverted
cross, or plus sign. In case of Sanofi after Doji the trend changes.
 The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after an advance and in the star
position, hence its name. A shooting star can mark a potential trend reversal or resistance
level. Before Shooting Star there is a black candle and after Shooting Star there is white
candle hence the trend changes.
42 | P a g e
The graph shows Doji. Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The length
of the upper and lower shadows can vary, and the resulting candlestick looks like, either, a cross,
inverted cross, or plus sign. In both the cases after Doji trend changes.
43 | P a g e
In the graph of Torrent Pharam it shows Inverted Hammer. It shows one-day bullish reversal
pattern. In a downtrend, the open is lower, and then it trades higher, but closes near its open,
therefore looking like an inverted lollipop. After inverted hammer there is white candle stick hence
the trend changes.
The graph shows Doji. Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. In case of
Piramal Enter after Doji trend changes.
44 | P a g e
Long Term Analysis
In technical analysis we analyze trend of stock price for last 1 year and look for patterns which
will help us to understand present trend of stock and as per trend we can take position buy or sell.
Basically it gives us idea about business cycle phase.
Rounding Bottom(Reversal)
The rounding bottom is a long-term reversal pattern that is best suited for weekly charts. It is also
referred to as a saucer bottom, and represents a long consolidation period that turns from a bearish
bias to a bullish bias.
Cup with Handle
The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed
by a breakout. As its name implies, there are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The
cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a
trading range develops on the right hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout
from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance.
Bump and Run Reversal(BARR)
The Bump and Run Reversal pattern can be applied to daily, weekly or monthly charts. As stated
above, the pattern is designed to identify speculative advances that are unsustainable for a long
period. Because prices rise very fast to form the left side of the bump, the subsequent decline can
be just as ferocious.
Double Top (Reversal)
The double top is a major reversal pattern. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two
consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in between. While the double
top formation may seem straightforward, technicians should take proper steps to avoid deceptive
double tops. The peaks should be separated by about a month. If the peaks are too close, they could
just represent normal resistance rather than a lasting change in the supply/demand picture.
45 | P a g e
Triple Top (Reversal)
Triple top is a reversal pattern made up of three equal highs followed by a break below support.
In contrast to the triple bottom, triple tops usually form over a shorter time frame and typically
range from 3 to 6 months. Generally speaking, bottoms take longer to form than tops.
Triple Bottom (Reversal)
The triple bottom is a reversal pattern made up of three equal lows followed by a breakout above
resistance. While this pattern can form over just a few months, it is usually a long-term pattern that
covers many months. Because of its long-term nature, weekly charts can be best suited for analysis.
Head and Shoulders (Reversal)
A head and shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend
reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks with the middle peak (head) being the highest
and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak
can be connected to form support, or a neckline.
Here are the patterns for each stock in our portfolio.
Ajanta Pharma shows the Up- trend as it is Bump and Run Reversal (Reversal) BARR
46 | P a g e
As in above graph point between 1 and 2 is called as prig hence it is Head & Shoulders Bottom.
The above graph represents a long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish
bias. Hence it is Rounding Bottom (Reversal).
47 | P a g e
As the above graph shows a side way stock that forms after an extended uptrend hence it is Double
Tap (Reversal).
Above graph shows variation of rounding bottom. Hence it is Cup with Handle a bullish continuation
pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout.
48 | P a g e
As the above graph shows long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish
bias. Hence it is Rounding Bottom (Reversal).
As the above graph shows a side way stock that forms after an extended uptrend hence it is Double
Tap (Reversal).
49 | P a g e
As in above graph point shows the reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support,
or a neckline. Hence it is Head & Shoulders (Reversal).
As in above graph shows trend of stocks when it goes down buy the stock and as it reach at
higher trend sell the stock.
50 | P a g e
As the above graph shows the Up- trend as it is Bump and Run Reversal (Reversal) BARR
51 | P a g e
4.7 Mutual fund with diverse sectors
In our team we have allotted different sectors for which each team member has selected different
stocks for their sectors and allotted fund as per ranking. Then we concatenated stocks from all
sectors and created mutual fund. Then we have observed performance of mutual fund.
Sectoral Mutual Fund
Sr
No.
Sectors Ranks stock pick CMP
No. of
shares
Rs alloted
initially
Amount (Cr.)
1 AUTO Sector
1 Hero Motocorp 3,185.80 9,809.00 31,249,512.20
125,000,020.55
2 Bajaj Auto 2,675.90 10,010.00 26,785,759.00
3 Maruti Suzuki 4,170.95 5,351.00 22,318,753.45
4 AshokLeyland 98.85 180,752.00 17,867,335.20
5 Amara Raja Batt 868.35 15,424.00 13,393,430.40
6 Exide Ind 168.45 52,974.00 8,923,470.30
7 WABCOIndia 5,840.00 764.00 4,461,760.00
2
Private Bank
Sector
1 AxisBank 541.45 51,302.00 27,777,467.90
125,000,038.75
2 DCB Bank 97.20 250,057.00 24,305,540.40
3 CityUnionBank 116.40 178,981.00 20,833,388.40
4 Yes Bank 1,117.50 15,536.00 17,361,480.00
5 Karur VysyaBank 496.40 27,979.00 13,888,775.60
6 Lakshmi Vilas 98.95 105,272.00 10,416,664.40
7 SouthIndianBank 19.55 355,215.00 6,944,453.25
8 KarnatakaBank 140.80 24,661.00 3,472,268.80
3 IT Sector
1 Wipro 555.60 112,491.00 62,499,999.60 125,000,103.20
52 | P a g e
2 MphasiS 580.25 71,807.00 41,666,011.75
3 Cyient 491.15 42,419.00 20,834,091.85
4 Tires Sector
1 Tvs srichakra 2,357.00 8,485.00 19,999,145.00
124,999,987.90
2 MRF 33,656.65 594.00 19,992,050.10
3 CEAT 863.15 23,170.00 19,999,185.50
4 PTL enterprises 125.50 129,480.00 16,249,740.00
5 Apollotyres 154.75 105,000.00 16,248,750.00
6
Balkrishna
Industries 673.00 24,150.00 16,252,950.00
7
Jk tyre and
Industries 90.05 180,546.00 16,258,167.30
5
Oil & Gas
Sector
1 RIL 972.00 51,441.00 50,000,652.00
124,999,730.00
2 IOCL 1,019.60 36,779.00 37,499,868.40
3 BPCL 1,089.25 22,951.00 24,999,376.75
4 HPCL 457.35 27,331.00 12,499,832.85
6
Real Estate
Sector
1 Marathon Realty 218.05 95,544.00 20,833,369.20
124,999,863.35
2 SunteckRealty 229.55 82,506.00 18,939,252.30
3 Pnc Infratech 558.65 30,512.00 17,045,528.80
4 Brigade Ent 157.15 96,414.00 15,151,460.10
5 HDIL 99.35 133,443.00 13,257,562.05
6 Obroi Realty 270.10 42,072.00 11,363,647.20
7 DLF 143.65 65,922.00 9,469,695.30
8 Hubtow 98.60 76,833.00 7,575,733.80
9 Phoenix Mills 345.00 16,469.00 5,681,805.00
10 Vasconengineer 32.40 116,910.00 3,787,884.00
53 | P a g e
11 IndiabullsRear 88.90 21,304.00 1,893,925.60
7
Pharma
Sector
1 TorrentPharma 1,352.80 16,800.00 22,727,040.00
124,999,935.90
2 Alembic 545.45 37,500.00 20,454,375.00
3 Glenmark 791.55 22,971.00 18,182,695.05
4 Piramal 1,400.95 11,356.00 15,909,188.20
5 Lupin 1,532.95 8,896.00 13,637,123.20
6 Cipla 501.30 22,668.00 11,363,468.40
7 Wockhardt 914.10 9,945.00 9,090,724.50
8 Sanofi India 4,271.00 1,596.00 6,816,516.00
9 Ajanta 1,516.00 2,999.00 4,546,484.00
10 Pfizer 1,867.15 1,217.00 2,272,321.55
8
Consumer
Durables
1 Whirlpool 823.00 101,256.00 83,333,688.00
124,999,752.00
2 Blue Star 438.00 95,128.00 41,666,064.00
9 Cash In Hand 568.35
1,000,000,000.00
54 | P a g e
CHAPTER –5
CONCLUSION
Equity research is important for every investor in order to do wise investment. Relative valuation
model is simplest method for fundamental analysis. Also, one can use long term and short term
technical analysis along with fundamental analysis. Calculating long term target price investor can
achieve maximum profit and they also get an idea for how much period they should hold the stock.
Sectoral mutual fund of power sector and mutual fund consisting of diverse sectors will give idea
about how the mutual funds NAV are calculated and their performance is analyzed with respect to
market. If mutual fund is outperforming market, it indicates that stocks selected in portfolio are
good.
From this report we can conclude that by doing proper analysis of the stock and then investing in
it would minimize the risk involved in losing money in stocks. After all this analysis an investor
can lose money because at last the market behavior i.e. whether it is bullish or bearish depends on
the buying and selling of the stocks. At the end I want to conclude this project again by saying this
that by doing this analysis we would reduce risk in stock market it does not guarantee us that we
will not lose money.
55 | P a g e
CHAPTER –6
RECOMMENDATION
As per my recommendation I will suggest peoples should invest in stock market after studying the
market, as it will be a secondary source of income along with their primary income. While
investing every investor must have a diversified portfolio so that he get good returns.
Stock market is place where we can earn lots of money if we invest smartly. We should always
invest after doing self research rather than investing blindly as someone else has invested in that
particular Stock.
The last and the one of the most important suggestion while playing with stocks is keep
emotions aside and are realistic and invest it in for long term rather than short term. So one should
have a high level of patience while dealing with stock. We should look after the stocks as our child
which will give us the return in future and not as soon as we bought it.
STOCK MARKET IS SUBJECTED TO HIGH RISK SO PEOPLE WITH WEAKER
HEART DON’T EVEN TRY TO DEAL WITH IT AND PEOPLE WHO LOVE TO TAKE
RISK IN LIFE IT’S THE BEST WAY OF EARNING MONEY LEGALLY
56 | P a g e
CHAPTER –7
LIMITATIONS
1. The study is limited only to pharmaceutical sector and only large cap companies.
2. I have used only 2 technical tools to predict the movement scripts.
3. Fundamental Analysis is used to analyze only financial performance of the companies.
4. Only Technical Analysis is used to predict the stock prices of the companies.
57 | P a g e
CHAPTER –8
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Websites
www.birlasunlife.com
economictimes.indiatimes.com
www.equitymaster.com
www.torrentpharma.com
www.ibef.org
www.moneycontrol.com
58 | P a g e
FinancialTearSheet
Corporate profile:
Torrent Pharma is a flagship company of Torrent Group, is ranked amongst the top pharma
companies with a market cap of over Rs. 20000 cr. It is a dominant player in the therapeutic areas
of cardiovascular (CV) and central nervous system (CNS) and has achieved significant presence
in gastro-intestinal, diabetology, anti-infective and pain management segments. It has also forayed
into the oncology and nephrology segments while also strengthening its focus on gynecology and
nutraceuticals segments. Torrent Pharma’s competitive advantage stems from its world-class
manufacturing facilities located at Indrad and Dahej in Gujarat, Baddi in Himachal Pradesh and
Sikkim in North East, advanced R&D capabilities, extensive domestic network and a widespread
global presence over 40 countries with over 1200 product registrations.
Stock Performance:
Exchange: NSE
Price: INR 1415.3
Change: INR-26.60 (-1.85%)
Volume: 122162
52 Week Low/High: INR 1190.00/1720.00
Market Cap: 239545
EPS: 106.6
PE Ratio: 13.3
Shares Outstanding: 169.22 Crore INR
(Date as on 15/07/2016 4:16p.m. IST)
59 | P a g e
Events:
The Award’ is conferred upon two best employees, from across the Group, for their excellent
performance. Every year the theme of the event is based on his philosophy that emphasis on the
concern for the society.
Management Team:
Samir Mehta: CEO
Ashok Modi: CFO & Executive Director
Ashish Nanda: Director
Ownership structure: % of Share holding
Indian Promoters: 71.5%
Foreign collaborators: 0.0%
Indian institution/Mutual Fund: 7.0%
FIIs: 12.6%
ADR/ GDR: 0.0%
Free float: 8.8%
Financial Highlights:
Particulars 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11
SALES, PROFIT & DIVIDEND
Revenue 4653 4185 3211 2696 226
EBDITA 1291 962 702 512 417
EBIT 1100 875 619 431 355
Profitbefore Exceptional Items&Tax (PBT) 940 844 619 424 342
ProfitafterTax & MinorityInterest(PAT) 751 664 433 284 270
Dividend(Amount) 190 169 195 72 68
Total DividendPerShare (RS) 11.25 10 23 8.5 8
Special DividendPerShare (RS) - - 10 - -
Normal DividendPerShare (RS) 11.25 10 13 8.5 8
Normal DividendPerShare (RS)- AdjustedforBonus 11.25 10 6.5 4.25 4
60 | P a g e

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Project on pharmaceutical industry

  • 1. 1 | P a g e A Summer Internship Project Report On “FUNDAMENTALANALYSIS ON PHARMACEUTICALSECTOR USING RELATIVE VALUATION MODEL” Company: Birla Sun Life Insurance Company Submitted in the partial fulfillmentof the requirements for Post GraduateDiploma in Management - PGDM SUBMITTED BY Name: Vamsi Krishna Bodavula PGDM 2 /1546 Batch: 2015-17 UNDER GUIDANCEOF Prof. Siddhartha Bose Universal BusinessSchool, Mumbai (Karjat), 410201
  • 2. 2 | P a g e Acknowledgement It gives me immense pleasure to present this Concurrent Project Report. However, it would not have been possible without help and support of all the team members of Birla Sun life Insurance Company I would like to thank Prof. Siddhartha Bose for guiding me in my tenure of internship on May 1st 2016 to July 5th 2016. Without their support and guidance, I wouldn’t have come so far to prepare this report. I would like to express my thankfulness to Universal Business School, who has given me great opportunity to work on this project. I am also grateful to my loving parents and my kind friends whose prayers, affection and support are always a source of encouragement. Their suggestions and supply of information were really very valuable and helpful to me. Their continuous encouragement and support helped me for completing this project successfully. Vamsi Krishna Bodavula, PGDM 2 /1546 Specialization: Finance, Universal Business School, Mumbai (Karjat).
  • 3. 3 | P a g e CERTIFICATE This is to certify that the project entitled “Fundamental Analysis On Pharmaceutical Sector Using Relative Valuation Model”, submitted to Universal Business School, Mumbai (Karjat) in the partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the Post Graduate Diploma in Management (PGDM) embodies the results of bonafide project work carried out by Vamsi Krishna Bodavula under my guidance and supervision. To the best of my knowledge the results embodied in this project have not been submitted to any other university or institute for the award of Degree or Diploma. The assistance and help received during the course of this investigation has been duly acknowledged. Project Guide: Siddhartha Bose Program Director (PGDM): Prof. Vijay Tandon Date: 29/08/2016 Place: Mumbai (Karjat)
  • 4. 4 | P a g e
  • 5. 5 | P a g e DECLARATION This is to declare that I Vamsi Krishna Bodavula of Universal Business School, Mumbai (Karjat), PGDM batch 2015-2017, has given original data and information to the best of my knowledge in the project report titled Fundamental Analysis On Pharmaceutical Sector Using Relative Valuation Model is a record of independent work carried out by me under the guidance and supervision of the Prof. Siddhartha Bose towards the partial fulfilment of requirement for the PGDM course. I also agree in principal not to share the vital information with any other person outside the organization and that I have not submitted it for any award or any other title, degree or diploma. Date: 29/08/2016 Place: Mumbai (Karjat) Name: Vamsi Krishna Bodavula PGDM 2 /1546 Specialization: Finance
  • 6. 6 | P a g e CHAPTER NO TOPIC PAGE NO. PART A Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Researchback ground 10 1.2 Detail of company 11-16 1.3 Pharmaceutical Sector 17 1.4 Needfor study 18 1.5 Objective of study 18 1.6 Scope of the study 18 Chapter 2 Review of literature 19-21 Chapter 3 ResearchMethodology 3.1 Type of research Design 22 3.2 Sources of Data (primary and secondary) 22 PART B Chapter 4 Analysis and interpretation of data 24-53 List of Table 24-53 List of Figure 24-53 Findings & Suggestions 47-50 Chapter 5 Conclusion 54 Chapter 6 Recommendations 55
  • 7. 7 | P a g e Chapter 7 Limitations 56 Chapter 8 Bibliography 57 Financial Tear Sheet 58-59
  • 8. 8 | P a g e PART A
  • 9. 9 | P a g e EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This project report is about the ‘Equity research in pharmaceutical sector using relative valuation model’. It consist the study of pharmaceutical sector on macroeconomic and microeconomic basis. E-I-C framework is used for equity research. It will be helpful for investors who are looking for investment in pharmaceutical sector companies. It will give them approach for investment in whichever sector they want to invest. Also, sectorial mutual fund in pharmaceutical sector (individually) and mutual fund with diverse sectors (team) are also created. Their performance is analyzed with respect to benchmark NIFTY 500 index. Depending upon the analysis we reached to conclusion whether our mutual fund is really performing well or not compared to market.
  • 10. 10 | P a g e CHAPTER –1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 ResearchBackground: “This study suggests thatpeople are reluctant while investing in stock market due to lack of knowledge…” This is the project on the analyzing of equities to invest the money to future for get higher return on investment. This is the project report to all investor who want to invest their money in equities. But they should analysis the securities before to invest because the money has very much value in our life... I choose this project to do because I want to analysis the equities for investor point of view so they can get good return in future, by using fundamental and technical analysis of securities and try to understand the movement and performance of stocks and also try to know the factors that affect the movement of stock prices in the Indian stock market. Through this project we were also able to understand, what are the companies’ positive points, on the basis of which we come to know what, can be the basis of pitching to a potential client.
  • 11. 11 | P a g e 1.2 Details of Company Established in 2000, Birla Sun Life Insurance Company Limited (BSLI) is a joint venture between the Aditya Birla Group, a well-known and trusted name globally amongst Indian conglomerates and Sun Life Financial Inc., leading international financial services organization from Canada. The local knowledge of the Aditya Birla Group combined with the domain expertise of Sun Life Financial Inc., offers a formidable protection for its customers’ future. With an experience of over 10 years, BSLI has contributed significantly to the growth and development of the life insurance industry in India and currently ranks amongst the top 5 private life insurance companies in the country. It is known for its innovation and creating industry benchmarks, BSLI has several firsts to its credit. It was the first Indian Insurance Company to introduce “Free Look Period” and the same was made mandatory by IRDA for all other life insurance companies. Additionally, BSLI pioneered the launch of Unit Linked Life Insurance plans amongst the private players in India. To establish credibility and further transparency, BSLI also enjoys the prestige to be the originator of practice to disclose portfolio on monthly basis. These category development initiatives have helped BSLI be closer to its policy holders’ expectations, which gets further accentuated by the complete bouquet of insurance products (viz. pure term plan, life stage products, health plan and retirement plan) that the company offers. Add to this, the extensive reach through its network of 600 branches and 175,000 empanelled advisors. This impressive combination of domain expertise, product range, reach and ears on
  • 12. 12 | P a g e ground, helped BSLI cover more than 2 million lives since it commenced operations and establish a customer base spread across more than 1500 towns and cities in India. To ensure that our customers have an impeccable experience, BSLI has ensured that it has lowest outstanding claims ratio of 0.00% for FY 2008-09. Additionally, BSLI has the best Turn Around Time according to LOMA on all claims Parameters. Such services are well supported by sound financials that the Company has. The AUM of BSLI stood at Rs. 8165 crores as on February 28, 2009, while as on March 31, 2009, the company has a robust capital base of Rs. 2000 crore. VISION To be a leader and role model in a broad based and integrated financial services business. MISSION To help people mitigate risks of life, accident, health, and money at all stages and under all circumstances. Enhance the financial future of our customers including enterprises. VALUES  Integrity  Commitment  Passion  Seamlessness  Speed A US $28 billion corporation, the Aditya Birla Group is in the league of Fortune 500 worldwide. It is anchored by an extraordinary force of 100,000 employees, belonging to 25 different nationalities. The group operates in 25 countries across six continents – truly India's first multinational corporation.
  • 13. 13 | P a g e Aditya Birla Group through Aditya Birla Financial Services Group (ABFSG), has a strong presence across various financial services verticals that include life insurance, fund management, distribution & wealth management, security based lending, insurance broking, private equity and retail broking. The seven companies representing ABFSG are Birla Sun Life Insurance Company, Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company, Aditya Birla Money, Aditya Birla Finance, Birla Insurance Advisory & Broking Services, Aditya Birla Capital Advisors and Apollo Sindhoori Capital Investment. In FY 2008-09, the consolidated revenues of ABFSG from these businesses crossed Rs. 4763 crore, registering a growth rate of 36%. Sun Life Financial is a leading international financial services organization providing a diverse range of protection and wealth accumulation products and services to individuals and corporate customers. Chartered in 1865, Sun Life Financial and its partners today have operations in key markets worldwide, including Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, India, China and Bermuda. As of December 31, 2008, the Sun Life Financial group of companies had total assets under management of $381 billion. SWOT ANALYSIS STRENGTH: 1. Has Network of 600 branches and advisors spread over 1500 towns in India having over 130,000 advisors 2. Backed by Aditya Birla Brand and Sun Life financial services. 3. Emphasis on customer satisfaction through transparent functioning. 4. Strong capital base. WEAKNESS: 1. Low presence in rural market. 2. Lesser advertising as compared to competitors. OPPORTUNITY: 1. Growing potential in the rural market. 2. Alignment with Government Schemes. 3. Better awareness amongst people for getting insurance.
  • 14. 14 | P a g e AWARDS At Birla Sun Life Insurance, winning is a way of life. Our innovative solutions and customer- friendly services have been admired, appreciated and rewarded by customers and the industry at large.  Recruiting and Staffing Best in Class Awards.  Outlook Money Awards 2004 BSLI - Best Life Insurer (Runner Up) 2004 TROPHY  The 8th Asia Insurance Industry Awards 2004 - Birla Sun Life Insurance was among the top five nominees in the category.  The Indo-Canadian Business Chamber- BSLI awarded for its 'Successful Performance' for 4 years April 2005.  Birla Sun Life Insurance was presented 'The Hewitt Best Employers in India Awards 2004' Trophy.  Birla Sun Life Insurance was awarded 'The Great Place to Work Seminar Series 2007’ Presented by Anil Sachdev (Chairman & MD of Grow Talent Company Ltd) Robert Levering (Co-founder Great Place to Work Institute) and Jehangir Pocha (Business World Magazine).  The Bhartiya Shiromani Puraskar awarded to BSLI at the seminar on "Economic Development” New Delhi, on February 13, 2006. This is a Certificate of Excellence for Enhancing the image of India presented by Dr. Bhishma Narain Singh (Former Governor of Tamil Nadu & Assam) in association with the "Institute of Economic Studies (IES)".  Hewitt Best Employers in India 2004.  Sponsorship Acknowledgement for - The Asia Insurance Review.
  • 15. 15 | P a g e FUTURE BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLAN Birla Sun Life Insurance is one of the few Indian companies to have a fully operational Business Continuity Plan (BCP) to ensure minimal impact to the organization, its people, and most importantly, its customers. Our Business Continuity Planning (BCP) Program is a response plan which would ensure that in the event of a disaster we would be able to restore and recover operations for critical processes within a predetermined time after the disaster. BSLI’S BUSINESS CONTINUITY MANAGEMENT POLICY To have a planned response in the event of any contingency ensuring recovery of critical activities at agreed levels within agreed timeframe thereby complying with various regulatory requirements and minimizing the potential business impact to BSLI. Additionally, to create a system that fosters continuous improvement of business continuity management. BUSINESS CONTINUITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OBJECTIVES (BCMS): The objectives of BSLI's BCMS are as follows  Ensuring a Proactive response to any contingency  Ensuring recovery of identified critical activities within agreed timeframe.  Ensuring that we adhere to our clients, contractual, legal & regulatory requirements. PROGRAMME OVERVIEW As part of our Business Continuity Plan, we have a documented crisis response and recovery procedure for quick response and stabilization of the situation, and a business continuity procedure to ensure recovery.
  • 16. 16 | P a g e HIGHLIGHTS OF OUR PLAN DOCUMENT:  Alternate recovery sites if primary location is unavailable  Assurance to customers that they will continue to receive optimum customer services at all times  Communication with customers, employees and other stakeholders  Crisis Management & incident response  Data back-up, data and system recovery  Recovery of all mission-critical business functions and supporting systems.
  • 17. 17 | P a g e 1.3 Details about PharmaceuticalSector The number of purely Indian pharma companies is fairly low. Indian pharma industry is mainly operated as well as controlled by dominant foreign companies having subsidiaries in India due to availability of cheap labor in India at low cost. In 2002, over 20,000 registered drug manufacturers in India sold $9 billion worth of formulations and bulk drugs. 85% of these formulations were sold in India while over 60% of the bulk drugs were exported, mostly to the United States and Russia. Most of the players in the market are small-to-medium enterprises; 250 of the largest companies control 70% of the Indian market. Thanks to the 1970 Patent Act, multinationals represent only 35% of the market, down from 70% thirty years ago. Most pharma companies operating in India, even the multinationals, employ Indians almost exclusively from the lowest ranks to high level management. Homegrown pharmaceuticals, like many other businesses in India, are often a mix of public and private enterprise. In terms of the global market, India currently holds a modest 1–2% share, but it has been growing at approximately 10% per year. India gained its foothold on the global scene with its innovatively engineered generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), and it is now seeking to become a major player in outsourced clinical research as well as contract manufacturing and research. There are 74 US FDA-approved manufacturing facilities in India, more than in any other country outside the U.S, and in 2005, almost 20% of all Abbreviated New Drug Applications (ANDA) to the FDA are expected to be filed by Indian companies. Growth in other fields notwithstanding, generics are still a large part of the picture. London research company Global Insight estimates that India’s share of the global generics market will have risen from 4% to 33% by 2007.The Indian pharmaceutical industry has become the third largest producer in the world and is poised to grow into an industry of $20 billion in 2015 from the current turnover of $12 billion. Objective: The main objective of this project to understand that proper analysis of a company minimizes the risk of losing money in stock market of any investor. The other objective is to make people aware that other than cash market there is future and option which is well known as derivative market to invest. In this they can earn profit even if they are in loss in cash market.
  • 18. 18 | P a g e Scope: The scope of project is limited to Understanding the basics of Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis and apply it to take a decision of investing in Pharmaceutical Sector Stocks and F&O strategies for the same. Assumptions: This project is prepared on the assumption that most of the investment in stock market is done by the brokers and not by the common man and on the other hand there are many people who want to invest in stock market but fears as they think that it is luck game which is not totally true and this might change their way of thinking.
  • 19. 19 | P a g e CHAPTER –2 LITERATURE REVIEW Pharmaceuticalindustry would grow at 19% in 2013:MorganStanley January 10, 2013 | Jwalit Vyas, ET Bureau MUMBAI: According to report by Morgan Stanley, Indian pharmaceutical industry would grow at 19% in 2013. “They expect the intellectual property investments in the past few years to start bearing fruits in US and EU markets in FY13. There will be new drug launches, new drug filings and Phase II clinic trials throughout the year. ", said Samir Baisiwala, senior analyst with Morgan Stanley in his report. Healthcare and pharmaceuticalindustry stimulating demand for hiring talent October 1, 2012 TimesJobs.com Bureau Where global market slowdown has affected the major employment generators such as IT/Telecom, BFSi and ITeS, Healthcare/Pharmaceutical sector reported enhanced hiring activity during the first half of 2012, reveals TimesJobs.com Biannual Recruite X. "The Indian Healthcare sector is expected to reach US$ 100 billion by 2015 from the current US$ 65 billion, growing at around 20 % a year, according to rating agency Fitch. Government may ease FDInorms in pharmaceuticalindustry July 25, 2012 | Khomba Singh & Deepshikha Sikarwar, ET Bureau NEW DELHI: The government is likely to take a less harsh stand on foreign direct investment (FDI) in pharmaceutical companies to ensure a balance between public health concerns and the need to attract investments. An intermenstrual group set up by the finance ministry has favored that all brown field FDI in pharmaceuticals up to 49% stake should be allowed under the automatic route, two officials familiar with the development told ET.
  • 20. 20 | P a g e Government to make pharma marketing code mandatory: Hansraj GangaramAhir March 15, 2016 | PTI NEW DELHI: Government has decided to make Uniform Code of Pharmaceutical Marketing Practice (UCPMP) mandatory in order to control unethical practices in the industry, Parliament was informed today. In a written reply to the Lok Sabha, Minister of State for Chemicals and Fertilizers Hansraj Gangaram Ahir said the government had prepared a draft UCPMP which was adopted voluntarily with effect from January 1, 2015 for 6 months by the pharmaceutical industry. Union Budget 2012:Pharmaceuticalindustry seekshigherexpenditure on R&D March 16, 2012 | Agencies NEW DELHI: The pharmaceutical industry in its prebudget wish list has asked the Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee to incentivise the sector to promote higher spending in research and development. The industry has also sought a reduction in taxes and duties on life saving drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) to provide a fillip to its growth. Budget at ET: Budget 2012 | Union Budget. Mostpharma stocks couldbecome 5 to 10 baggers in 57 years;Buy on declines:Experts March 11, 2015 | Kshitij Anand NEW DELHI: Analysts at top brokerage firms remain confident that rally in most of the pharma stocks is justified, and there is also room for further upside. Long term investors should look at buying top pharma stocks on every decline in markets, they say. "I am very believer in a pharmaceutical story and as I keep saying for years now that this is one story which you do not sell. This is a story where correction means a buy. Sun PharmaceuticalIndustries Q3 net profit surges threefold to Rs 1,417 crore February 12, 2016 | PTI NEW DELHI: Sun Pharmaceutical Industries today posted over threefold jump in consolidated net profit at Rs 1,416.60 crore for the third quarter ended December 31. The drug major had posted a net profit of Rs 395.33 crore during the same period of previous fiscal. Net sales of the company rose to Rs 7,046.57 crore for the third quarter as against Rs 6,885.46 crore in the same period of previous fiscal, Sun Pharma said in a regulatory filing.
  • 21. 21 | P a g e James Clausen(2009),in this article he barfly express about the liquidity ratio. He Pronounce that it is analysis of the financial statements is used to measure company performance. It also analyses of the income statement and balance sheet. Investors and lending institutions will often use ratio analyses of the financial statements to determine the 11 company’s profitability and liquidity. If the ratios indicate poor performance, investors may be reluctant to invest. Therefore, the current ratio or working capital ratio, measures current assets against current liabilities. The current ratio measures the company’s ability to pay back its short-term debt obligations with its current assets. He thinks a higher ratio indicates the company is better equipped to pay off short- term debt with current assets. Wherefore, the acid test ratio or quick ratio, measures quick assets against current liabilities. Quick assets are considered assets that can be quickly converted into cash. Generally, they are current assets less inventory.
  • 22. 22 | P a g e CHAPTER –3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Types of researchdesign It is an exploratory research design. It is a research conducted for a problem that has not been clearly defined. The name states merely to explore the research questions and does not intend to offer final and conclusive solutions to existing problems. This research gives an overview of fund allocation of media companies, fundamental analysis and technical analysis and ratio analysis. 3.2 Sources ofData Secondarydata Exploratory research is often secondary research such as reviewing available data and analyzing the current situation. Data is been extracted through secondary sources such as web, journals, relevant books etc. In this research, company financials, charts and graphs are been extracted from various web sources such as Equity masters, Money control, IBEF and stock exchange websites.
  • 23. 23 | P a g e PART B
  • 24. 24 | P a g e CHAPTER –4 ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION PharmaceuticalSectorAnalysis • The Indian Pharmaceutical market (IPM) accounts for approx. 1.4% of the global pharmaceutical industry in value terms and 10% in the volume terms. The IPM is valued at Rs 860bn for the year ending March 2015. The growth in 2015 stood at 12.9%. Owing to robust historical growth and future prospects, many MNC companies have active presence in the Indian pharmaceutical space. • The IPM is highly fragmented with about 24,000 players (330 in the organized sector). The top ten companies including domestic and MNC companies make up for more than a third of the market. The market is dominated majorly by branded generics, which constitutes nearly 70% to 80% of market. • Besides the domestic market, Indian pharmaceutical companies also have a large chunk of their revenues coming from exports. Major companies are focusing on the generics market in the US, Europe and semi-regulated markets; others are focusing on custom manufacturing for innovator companies. Biopharmaceuticals is also increasingly becoming an area of interest given the complexity in manufacture and limited competition. • The past few years have been glorious ones for the Indian companies, as major blockbusters lost their patent protection, paving way for generics. However, every passing year is leaving lower patented drug opportunities for the Indian companies for the launch of generics. Thus, Indian pharmaceutical companies have increased their R&D expenses. The companies are spending more to establish niche product portfolios for the future. • The year gone by was one where M&A activity continued to attract interest of companies globally. This included many Indian names too. Indian companies such as Lupin, Cipla, Dr Reddy’s and others also showed keen interest. Lupin announced a mega deal worth US$ 800 m for acquiring Gavis. On the other hand, Cipla and Dr Reddy’s too made acquisitions in the US and India respectively.
  • 25. 25 | P a g e RATIOS Net Profit Margin (Return on Sales) a measure of net income dollars generated by each dollar of sales. Formula: Net Income Net Sales Debt to Equity Indicates how well creditors are protected in case of the company's insolvency. Formula: Total Debt Total Equity Interest Coverage Ratio (Times InterestEarned) indicates a company's capacity to meet interest payments. Uses EBIT (Earnings before Interest and Taxes) Formula: EBIT Interest Expense Sales to Total Assets Ratio Sales to Total Assets ratio indicate how efficiently the firm generates sales revenue on each dollar of assets. It is defined as the total assets divided by the turnoverof the firm. Formula: Sales to Total Assets = Sales / Total Assets
  • 26. 26 | P a g e
  • 27. 27 | P a g e FUNDAMENTALANALYSIS Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing its financial statements and health, its management and competitive advantages, and its competitors and markets. When applied to futures and forex, it focuses on the overall state of the economy, interest rates, production, earnings, and management. When analyzing a stock, futures contract, or currency using fundamental analysis there are two basic approaches one can use; bottom up analysis and top down analysis. The term is used to distinguish such analysis from other types of investment analysis, such as quantitative analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis is performed on historical and present data, but with the goal of making financial forecasts. There are several possible objectives:  To conduct a company stock valuation and predict its probable price evolution.  To make a projection on its business performance,  To evaluate its management and make internal business decisions,  To calculate its credit risk. Fundamental analysis includes: 1. Economic analysis 2. Industry analysis 3. Company analysis On the basis of this three analysis the intrinsic value of the shares are determined. This is considered as the true value of the share. If the intrinsic value is higher than the market price it is recommended to buy the share but if it is equal to market price hold the share and if it is less than the market price sell the shares. 4.1 Valuation of Stock We have considered only large cap stocks from pharma sector (i.e. companies having market capitalization more than 5000 crore rupees) for investment purpose. Then we can decide whether stock is undervalued or overvalued based on sectorial P/E ratio. If P/E ratio of company is less than sectorial P/E ratio, then stock is considered undervalued else it is overvalued
  • 28. 28 | P a g e Table-1 Valuation of Companies BasedOn P/E Sr No Company name Market Cap (Rs. Cr.) Last Price P/E Sector P/E UV/OV 1 SunPharma 186,258.69 773.90 39.11 34.23 OverValued 2 Lupin 66,652.10 1478.40 23.06 34.23 Under Valued 3 Dr ReddysLabs 55,379.53 3240.65 40.80 34.23 OverValued 4 AurobindoPharma 42,298.98 722.85 26.07 34.23 Under Valued 5 Cipla 39,296.27 489.00 28.09 34.23 Under Valued 6 CadilaHealth 32,759.76 320.00 16.57 34.23 Under Valued 7 GlaxoSmithKline 29,429.64 3474.45 78.43 34.23 OverValued 8 DivisLabs 29,281.18 1098.75 26.33 34.23 Under Valued 9 Piramal Enter 24,069.10 1394.80 22.68 34.23 Under Valued 10 TorrentPharma 22,529.47 1331.35 12.78 34.23 Under Valued 11 Glenmark Pharma 21,987.80 779.25 14.90 34.23 Under Valued 12 Biocon 15,142.00 757.10 30.00 34.23 Under Valued 13 AjantaPharma 13,068.30 1484.95 31.53 34.23 Under Valued 14 Alembic Pharmaceuticals 10,289.20 545.80 14.74 34.23 Under Valued 15 Natco Pharma 10,272.80 589.80 57.60 34.23 OverValued 16 Wockhardt 9,927.01 898.30 31.22 34.23 Under Valued 17 Sanofi India 9,703.26 4227.35 30.28 34.23 Under Valued 18 AbbottIndia 9,587.69 4514.10 36.95 34.23 OverValued 19 StridesShasun 9,508.54 1068.25 54.78 34.23 OverValued 20 Pfizer 8,495.35 1861.25 38.22 34.23 OverValued 21 Ipca Labs 5,928.20 469.75 64.79 34.23 OverValued 34.23 As on 26 August 2016 After comparing power sector P/E with individual company P/E we found stocks Sun Pharma, Dr Reddys Labs, GlaxoSmith Kline, Nacto Pharma, Abbott India, Stride Shasun, Pfizer, Ipca Labs are overvalued because their P/E ratio is more than average P/E for power sector. Whereas remaining companies are undervalued stocks since their P/E ratio is less than sectorial P/E for pharma sector.
  • 29. 29 | P a g e 4.2 Value picks After valuation of stocks and bifurcating them into undervalued and overvalued stocks, to pick value stocks we consider undervalued stocks only. Then we check whether EPS of these stocks is increased or not compared to last year performance. If EPS is increased, then we consider it as value pick for portfolio. Table-2 Sr No. UndervaluedCompanies EPS 2015 EPS 2016 % Changes Value Pick 1 Lupin 53.41 64.1 20.01% Yes 2 AurobindoPharma 52.01 27.73 -46.68% 3 Cipla 14.71 17.41 18.35% Yes 4 CadilaHealth 62.08 19.31 -68.89% 5 DivisLabs 63.82 41.73 -34.61% 6 Piramal Enter 21.60 61.49 184.68% Yes 7 TorrentPharma 36.83 104.20 182.92% Yes 8 Glenmark 37.14 52.31 40.85% Yes 9 Biocon 18.06 40.44 123.92% Yes 10 AjantaPharma 34.84 47.10 3518.94% Yes 11 AlembicPharma 15.20 37.03 143.62% Yes 12 Wockhardt 30.17 2.97 -90.16% 13 Sanofi India 114.46 139.59 21.96% Yes From table, we can see that there is EPS growth for stocks Lupin, Cipla, Piramal Enter, Torrent Pharma, Glen mark, Biocon, Ajanta Pharma, Alembic Pharma, Sanofi India hence we selected them as value stocks.
  • 30. 30 | P a g e 4.3 Long Term Price Target Long term price target gives investor idea till which point he/she should hold the share. Long term price target is product of sectorial P/E and EPS of company. Sectorial P/E we have calculated in table 1. Here in the following table we have considered market price of share as on 24 June, 2016. Table-3 Sr No. Value Pick Stock Last Price Sector P/E EPS LTPT 1 Lupin 773.9 34.23 64.1 1532.95 2 Cipla 489.00 34.23 17.41 501.3 3 Piramal Enter 1394.80 34.23 61.49 791.55 4 TorrentPharma 1331.35 34.23 104.20 1352.8 5 Glenmark 779.25 34.23 52.31 1400.95 6 Biocon 757.10 34.23 40.44 1384.2612 7 AjantaPharma 1484.95 34.23 47.10 1516 8 AlembicPharma 545.80 34.23 37.03 545.45 9 Sanofi India 4227.35 34.23 139.59 4271 So,this givesinvestorideathatatwhichpointtheyshouldsell the value stocksinwhichtheyinvested theirmoney.Investorscancalculate theirapproximate profitusingandcompare itwiththeir expectation.Itgivesthemroughideawhetherthe stockinwhichtheyare investingwillfulfiltheir expectationornot.
  • 31. 31 | P a g e 4.4 Growth Picks For selecting growth picks we consider overvalued stocks only. Then we calculate PEG ratio for each stock. If PEG ratio is below 1 then we take it as growth stock in our portfolio. Table-4 Sr No. Over Valued P/E EPS 2015 EPS 2016 EPS growth PEG Growth Pick (peg< 1) 1 SunPharma 39.11 26.50 24.23 -856.60% -4.565704846 2 Dr ReddysLabs 40.80 98.60 79.42 -1945.23% -2.097638077 3 GlaxoSmithKline 78.43 55.7 44.3 -2046.68% -3.832063384 4 Natco Pharma 57.60 46.17 10.24 -7782.11% -0.740129081 5 AbbottIndia 36.95 107.75 122.18 1339.21% 2.758811341 6 StridesShasun 54.78 89.36 19.50 -7817.82% -0.700733482 7 Pfizer 38.22 15.26 48.70 21913.50% 0.174407041 Buy 8 Ipca Labs 64.79 20.29 7.25 -6426.81% -1.008168765 So, from PEG ratio calculation in above table we can see that for Pfizer PEG is below one so ideally Pfizer should be selected as growth pick. But Natco Pharma has negative P/E hence it is discarded. While stock of Abbott India have PEG more than 1 hence not considered in our growth pick portfolio.
  • 32. 32 | P a g e 4.5 Ranking of stocks inportfolio After selecting value picks and growth picks we will rank them based on four parameters ie. Valuations, profit margin, return on equity and P/E ratio. As ranking is based on P/E ratio lesser the P/E ratio highest is the rank, higher the P/E ratio lowest is the rank. Table-5 Rank Company Name P/E LTPT No. of Share Allocationof Fund 1 TorrentPharma 12.78 1352.8 16800 22,727,272 2 AlembicPharma 14.74 545.45 37500 20,454,540 3 Glenmark 14.9 791.55 22970 18,181,818 4 Piramal Enter 22.68 1400.95 11356 15,909,091 5 Lupin 23.06 1532.95 8896 13,636,364 6 Cipla 28.09 501.3 22668 11,363,637 7 Wockhardt 31.22 914.1 9945 9,090,910 8 Sanofi India 30.28 4271 1596 6,818,183 9 AjantaPharma 31.53 1516 2998 4,545,456 10 Pfizer 38.22 1867.15 1217 2,272,729 AUM 125,000,000 TorrentPharmaceutical isrankedfirstsince ithaslowestP/Eratioi.e.12.78 as amongstall whereas Pfizerisrankedlastsince ithas highestP/Eratio i.e.38.22 as. So fromthisrankingof stocks we understandpriorityinwhichwe shouldallocate fundforstocksinourportfolio.
  • 33. 33 | P a g e 4.6 SectorialMutual Fund After ranking stocks, we need to prepare sectorial mutual fund. For this we assumed Asset under management (AUM) is 125000000 crore rupees and we created 12.5 crore number of units. Then, Net asset value (NAV) will be AUM/Number of units=INR 10. Then we allocated INR 125000000 Crore based on the total points we obtained for each stock in ranking section table. Table-6 Rank Stock in Portfolio Amount in Rs allocatedon 24-6-16 CMP on 24-6-16 No of shares CMP on 29-6-16 AUM on 29-6-16 CMP on 05-7-16 AUM on 05-7-16 1 TorrentPharma 22,727,272 1352.8 16800 1343.4 22569120 1398.65 23497320 2 AlembicPharma 20,454,540 545.45 37500 547.95 20548125 578.1 21678750 3 Glenmark 18,181,818 791.55 22970 792.3 18199131 824.9 18947953 4 Piramal Enter 15,909,091 1400.95 11356 1399.7 15894993.2 1506.85 17111788.6 5 Lupin 13,636,364 1532.95 8896 1532.9 13636678.4 1562.9 13903558.4 6 Cipla 11,363,637 501.3 22668 502.45 11389536.6 507 11492676 7 Wockhardt 9,090,910 914.1 9945 914.85 9098183.25 956.4 9511398 8 Sanofi India 6,818,183 4271 1596 4295 6854820 4662.95 7442068.2 9 AjantaPharma 4,545,456 1516 2998 1513.05 4536123.9 1586.2 4755427.6 10 Pfizer 2,272,729 1867.15 1217 1874.2 2280901.4 1935.25 2355199.25 AUM 125,000,000 125007612.8 130696139.1
  • 34. 34 | P a g e TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Despite all the fancy and exotic tools, it employs, technical analysis really just studies supply and demand in a market in an attempt to determine what direction, or trend, will continue in the future. In other words, technical analysis attempts to understand the emotions in the market by studying the market itself, as opposed to its components. If you understand the benefits and limitations of technical analysis, it can give you a new set of tools or skills that will enable you to be a better trader or investor. Technical analysts seek to identify price patterns and trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns. While technicians use various methods and tools, the study of price charts is primary. Technicians especially search for archetypal patterns, such as the well-known head and shoulders or double top reversal patterns, study indicators such as moving averages, and look for forms such as lines of support, resistance, channels, and more obscure formations such as flags, pennants, balance days and cup and handle patterns. Technical analysts also extensively use indicators, which are typically mathematical transformations of price or volume. These indicators are used to help determine whether an asset is trending, and if it is, its price direction. Technicians seek to forecast price movements such that large gains from successful trades exceed more numerous but smaller losing trades, producing positive returns in the long run through proper risk control and money management. Technical Analysis is of two types: 1. Short Term Analysis: Based on candle sticks. 2. Long Term Analysis: Based on line graph.
  • 35. 35 | P a g e Short Term Analysis Originating in Japan over 300 years ago, candlestick charts have become quite popular in recent years. For a candlestick chart, the open, high, low and close are all required. A daily candlestick is based on the open price, the intraday high and low, and the close. White (green) candlesticks form when the close is higher than the open and black (red) candlesticks form when the close is lower than the open. The white and black portion formed from the open and close is called the body (white body or black body). The lines above and below are called shadows and represent the high and low. Doji Doji are important candlesticks that provide information on their own and also feature in a number of important patterns. Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary and the resulting candlestick looks like a cross, inverted cross or plus sign. Alone, doji are neutral patterns. Any bullish or bearish bias is based on preceding price action and future confirmation. The word "Doji" refers to both the singular and plural form.
  • 36. 36 | P a g e The Hanging Man The hanging man is a bearish signal that appears in an uptrend and warns of a potential trend reversal. The candlestick pattern is called the hanging man because the candlestick resembles a hanging man with dangling legs. The long lower shadow of the hanging man is generally a bullish signal, indicating that demand for the underlying security forced the price into the upper third of the price range for that period. For this reason, confirmation of a trend reversal is should be sought. At the very least, the candlestick following the hanging man should close below the real body of the hanging man. Confirmation may also The hanging man and hammer patterns are trend reversal patterns that consist of the same type of candlestick, which are called umbrella lines because of their shape. In other words, both the hanging man and the hammer pattern have the same shape, though the one is bearish while the other is relatively bullish. What distinguishes the two is the nature of the trend that they appear in. If the umbrella line appears in an uptrend then it is known as the hanging man pattern, and if it appears in a downtrend, then it is known as the hammer pattern. Both are a single candlestick pattern in which the candlestick consists of a real body that is located at the top of the candlestick with little or no upper shadow and a relatively long lower shadow, which should be at least twice the length of the real body. The color of the hanging man or hammer candlestick is not important. The Hammer The Japanese name for the hammer pattern is takuri, which means testing the water for its depth. The hammer pattern is quite similar in appearance to the hanging man pattern but it occurs in a downtrend and is a bullish signal that warns of a possible trend reversal. The candlestick is called a hammer because it hammers out a base at the bottom of the downtrend. The long lower shadow of the hammer is a bullish signal regardless of the color of the candlestick's real body. It indicates that the underlying sold off sharply but demand returned, forcing the price back up to close at or near the high for that period. The Inverted Hammer The inverted hammer and shooting star look exactly alike, but have different implications based on previous price action. Both candlesticks have small real bodies (black or white), long upper shadows and small or non-existent lower shadows. These candlesticks mark potential trend reversals, but require confirmation before action. The Shooting Star The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after an advance and in the star position, hence its name. A shooting star can mark a potential trend reversal or resistance level. The candlestick forms when prices gap higher on the open, advance during the session and close well off their highs. The resulting candlestick has a long upper shadow and small black or white body. To indicate a substantial reversal, the upper shadow should relatively long and at least 2 times the length of the body. Bearish confirmation is required after the shooting star and can take the form of a gap down or long black candlestick on heavy volume.
  • 37. 37 | P a g e The inverted hammer looks exactly like a shooting star, but forms after a decline or downtrend. Inverted hammers represent a potential trend reversal or support levels. After a decline, the long upper shadow indicates buying pressure during the session. However, the bulls were not able to sustain this buying pressure and prices closed well off of their highs to create the long upper shadow. Because of this failure, bullish confirmation is required before action. An inverted hammer followed by a gap up or long white candlestick with heavy volume could act as bullish confirmation. Now let us see the candlestick pattern for the stocks in our portfolio and observe whether these candlesticks are there in this pattern or not. The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. If this candlestick forms during an advance, then it is called a Hanging Man. After hanging man there is a white candle hence the trend changes.
  • 38. 38 | P a g e The graph shows Doji. Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary, and the resulting candlestick looks like, either, a cross, inverted cross, or plus sign. In case of Cipla after Doji trend changes but in Pfizer trend doesn’t change as the same trend is followed.
  • 39. 39 | P a g e The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. If this candlestick forms during an advance, then it is called a Hanging Man. After hanging man there is a white candle hence the trend changes.
  • 40. 40 | P a g e In the graph of Lupin it shows Inverted Hammer. It shows one-day bullish reversal pattern. In a downtrend, the open is lower, and then it trades higher, but closes near its open, therefore looking like an inverted lollipop. After inverted hammer the trend remains same. . The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. If this candlestick forms during an advance, then it is called a Hanging Man. Afterhangingmanthere isa white candle hence the trendchanges.
  • 41. 41 | P a g e The graph shows Doji as well as Shooting Star.  Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary, and the resulting candlestick looks like, either, a cross, inverted cross, or plus sign. In case of Sanofi after Doji the trend changes.  The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after an advance and in the star position, hence its name. A shooting star can mark a potential trend reversal or resistance level. Before Shooting Star there is a black candle and after Shooting Star there is white candle hence the trend changes.
  • 42. 42 | P a g e The graph shows Doji. Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary, and the resulting candlestick looks like, either, a cross, inverted cross, or plus sign. In both the cases after Doji trend changes.
  • 43. 43 | P a g e In the graph of Torrent Pharam it shows Inverted Hammer. It shows one-day bullish reversal pattern. In a downtrend, the open is lower, and then it trades higher, but closes near its open, therefore looking like an inverted lollipop. After inverted hammer there is white candle stick hence the trend changes. The graph shows Doji. Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. In case of Piramal Enter after Doji trend changes.
  • 44. 44 | P a g e Long Term Analysis In technical analysis we analyze trend of stock price for last 1 year and look for patterns which will help us to understand present trend of stock and as per trend we can take position buy or sell. Basically it gives us idea about business cycle phase. Rounding Bottom(Reversal) The rounding bottom is a long-term reversal pattern that is best suited for weekly charts. It is also referred to as a saucer bottom, and represents a long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish bias. Cup with Handle The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. As its name implies, there are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance. Bump and Run Reversal(BARR) The Bump and Run Reversal pattern can be applied to daily, weekly or monthly charts. As stated above, the pattern is designed to identify speculative advances that are unsustainable for a long period. Because prices rise very fast to form the left side of the bump, the subsequent decline can be just as ferocious. Double Top (Reversal) The double top is a major reversal pattern. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in between. While the double top formation may seem straightforward, technicians should take proper steps to avoid deceptive double tops. The peaks should be separated by about a month. If the peaks are too close, they could just represent normal resistance rather than a lasting change in the supply/demand picture.
  • 45. 45 | P a g e Triple Top (Reversal) Triple top is a reversal pattern made up of three equal highs followed by a break below support. In contrast to the triple bottom, triple tops usually form over a shorter time frame and typically range from 3 to 6 months. Generally speaking, bottoms take longer to form than tops. Triple Bottom (Reversal) The triple bottom is a reversal pattern made up of three equal lows followed by a breakout above resistance. While this pattern can form over just a few months, it is usually a long-term pattern that covers many months. Because of its long-term nature, weekly charts can be best suited for analysis. Head and Shoulders (Reversal) A head and shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline. Here are the patterns for each stock in our portfolio. Ajanta Pharma shows the Up- trend as it is Bump and Run Reversal (Reversal) BARR
  • 46. 46 | P a g e As in above graph point between 1 and 2 is called as prig hence it is Head & Shoulders Bottom. The above graph represents a long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish bias. Hence it is Rounding Bottom (Reversal).
  • 47. 47 | P a g e As the above graph shows a side way stock that forms after an extended uptrend hence it is Double Tap (Reversal). Above graph shows variation of rounding bottom. Hence it is Cup with Handle a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout.
  • 48. 48 | P a g e As the above graph shows long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish bias. Hence it is Rounding Bottom (Reversal). As the above graph shows a side way stock that forms after an extended uptrend hence it is Double Tap (Reversal).
  • 49. 49 | P a g e As in above graph point shows the reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline. Hence it is Head & Shoulders (Reversal). As in above graph shows trend of stocks when it goes down buy the stock and as it reach at higher trend sell the stock.
  • 50. 50 | P a g e As the above graph shows the Up- trend as it is Bump and Run Reversal (Reversal) BARR
  • 51. 51 | P a g e 4.7 Mutual fund with diverse sectors In our team we have allotted different sectors for which each team member has selected different stocks for their sectors and allotted fund as per ranking. Then we concatenated stocks from all sectors and created mutual fund. Then we have observed performance of mutual fund. Sectoral Mutual Fund Sr No. Sectors Ranks stock pick CMP No. of shares Rs alloted initially Amount (Cr.) 1 AUTO Sector 1 Hero Motocorp 3,185.80 9,809.00 31,249,512.20 125,000,020.55 2 Bajaj Auto 2,675.90 10,010.00 26,785,759.00 3 Maruti Suzuki 4,170.95 5,351.00 22,318,753.45 4 AshokLeyland 98.85 180,752.00 17,867,335.20 5 Amara Raja Batt 868.35 15,424.00 13,393,430.40 6 Exide Ind 168.45 52,974.00 8,923,470.30 7 WABCOIndia 5,840.00 764.00 4,461,760.00 2 Private Bank Sector 1 AxisBank 541.45 51,302.00 27,777,467.90 125,000,038.75 2 DCB Bank 97.20 250,057.00 24,305,540.40 3 CityUnionBank 116.40 178,981.00 20,833,388.40 4 Yes Bank 1,117.50 15,536.00 17,361,480.00 5 Karur VysyaBank 496.40 27,979.00 13,888,775.60 6 Lakshmi Vilas 98.95 105,272.00 10,416,664.40 7 SouthIndianBank 19.55 355,215.00 6,944,453.25 8 KarnatakaBank 140.80 24,661.00 3,472,268.80 3 IT Sector 1 Wipro 555.60 112,491.00 62,499,999.60 125,000,103.20
  • 52. 52 | P a g e 2 MphasiS 580.25 71,807.00 41,666,011.75 3 Cyient 491.15 42,419.00 20,834,091.85 4 Tires Sector 1 Tvs srichakra 2,357.00 8,485.00 19,999,145.00 124,999,987.90 2 MRF 33,656.65 594.00 19,992,050.10 3 CEAT 863.15 23,170.00 19,999,185.50 4 PTL enterprises 125.50 129,480.00 16,249,740.00 5 Apollotyres 154.75 105,000.00 16,248,750.00 6 Balkrishna Industries 673.00 24,150.00 16,252,950.00 7 Jk tyre and Industries 90.05 180,546.00 16,258,167.30 5 Oil & Gas Sector 1 RIL 972.00 51,441.00 50,000,652.00 124,999,730.00 2 IOCL 1,019.60 36,779.00 37,499,868.40 3 BPCL 1,089.25 22,951.00 24,999,376.75 4 HPCL 457.35 27,331.00 12,499,832.85 6 Real Estate Sector 1 Marathon Realty 218.05 95,544.00 20,833,369.20 124,999,863.35 2 SunteckRealty 229.55 82,506.00 18,939,252.30 3 Pnc Infratech 558.65 30,512.00 17,045,528.80 4 Brigade Ent 157.15 96,414.00 15,151,460.10 5 HDIL 99.35 133,443.00 13,257,562.05 6 Obroi Realty 270.10 42,072.00 11,363,647.20 7 DLF 143.65 65,922.00 9,469,695.30 8 Hubtow 98.60 76,833.00 7,575,733.80 9 Phoenix Mills 345.00 16,469.00 5,681,805.00 10 Vasconengineer 32.40 116,910.00 3,787,884.00
  • 53. 53 | P a g e 11 IndiabullsRear 88.90 21,304.00 1,893,925.60 7 Pharma Sector 1 TorrentPharma 1,352.80 16,800.00 22,727,040.00 124,999,935.90 2 Alembic 545.45 37,500.00 20,454,375.00 3 Glenmark 791.55 22,971.00 18,182,695.05 4 Piramal 1,400.95 11,356.00 15,909,188.20 5 Lupin 1,532.95 8,896.00 13,637,123.20 6 Cipla 501.30 22,668.00 11,363,468.40 7 Wockhardt 914.10 9,945.00 9,090,724.50 8 Sanofi India 4,271.00 1,596.00 6,816,516.00 9 Ajanta 1,516.00 2,999.00 4,546,484.00 10 Pfizer 1,867.15 1,217.00 2,272,321.55 8 Consumer Durables 1 Whirlpool 823.00 101,256.00 83,333,688.00 124,999,752.00 2 Blue Star 438.00 95,128.00 41,666,064.00 9 Cash In Hand 568.35 1,000,000,000.00
  • 54. 54 | P a g e CHAPTER –5 CONCLUSION Equity research is important for every investor in order to do wise investment. Relative valuation model is simplest method for fundamental analysis. Also, one can use long term and short term technical analysis along with fundamental analysis. Calculating long term target price investor can achieve maximum profit and they also get an idea for how much period they should hold the stock. Sectoral mutual fund of power sector and mutual fund consisting of diverse sectors will give idea about how the mutual funds NAV are calculated and their performance is analyzed with respect to market. If mutual fund is outperforming market, it indicates that stocks selected in portfolio are good. From this report we can conclude that by doing proper analysis of the stock and then investing in it would minimize the risk involved in losing money in stocks. After all this analysis an investor can lose money because at last the market behavior i.e. whether it is bullish or bearish depends on the buying and selling of the stocks. At the end I want to conclude this project again by saying this that by doing this analysis we would reduce risk in stock market it does not guarantee us that we will not lose money.
  • 55. 55 | P a g e CHAPTER –6 RECOMMENDATION As per my recommendation I will suggest peoples should invest in stock market after studying the market, as it will be a secondary source of income along with their primary income. While investing every investor must have a diversified portfolio so that he get good returns. Stock market is place where we can earn lots of money if we invest smartly. We should always invest after doing self research rather than investing blindly as someone else has invested in that particular Stock. The last and the one of the most important suggestion while playing with stocks is keep emotions aside and are realistic and invest it in for long term rather than short term. So one should have a high level of patience while dealing with stock. We should look after the stocks as our child which will give us the return in future and not as soon as we bought it. STOCK MARKET IS SUBJECTED TO HIGH RISK SO PEOPLE WITH WEAKER HEART DON’T EVEN TRY TO DEAL WITH IT AND PEOPLE WHO LOVE TO TAKE RISK IN LIFE IT’S THE BEST WAY OF EARNING MONEY LEGALLY
  • 56. 56 | P a g e CHAPTER –7 LIMITATIONS 1. The study is limited only to pharmaceutical sector and only large cap companies. 2. I have used only 2 technical tools to predict the movement scripts. 3. Fundamental Analysis is used to analyze only financial performance of the companies. 4. Only Technical Analysis is used to predict the stock prices of the companies.
  • 57. 57 | P a g e CHAPTER –8 BIBLIOGRAPHY Websites www.birlasunlife.com economictimes.indiatimes.com www.equitymaster.com www.torrentpharma.com www.ibef.org www.moneycontrol.com
  • 58. 58 | P a g e FinancialTearSheet Corporate profile: Torrent Pharma is a flagship company of Torrent Group, is ranked amongst the top pharma companies with a market cap of over Rs. 20000 cr. It is a dominant player in the therapeutic areas of cardiovascular (CV) and central nervous system (CNS) and has achieved significant presence in gastro-intestinal, diabetology, anti-infective and pain management segments. It has also forayed into the oncology and nephrology segments while also strengthening its focus on gynecology and nutraceuticals segments. Torrent Pharma’s competitive advantage stems from its world-class manufacturing facilities located at Indrad and Dahej in Gujarat, Baddi in Himachal Pradesh and Sikkim in North East, advanced R&D capabilities, extensive domestic network and a widespread global presence over 40 countries with over 1200 product registrations. Stock Performance: Exchange: NSE Price: INR 1415.3 Change: INR-26.60 (-1.85%) Volume: 122162 52 Week Low/High: INR 1190.00/1720.00 Market Cap: 239545 EPS: 106.6 PE Ratio: 13.3 Shares Outstanding: 169.22 Crore INR (Date as on 15/07/2016 4:16p.m. IST)
  • 59. 59 | P a g e Events: The Award’ is conferred upon two best employees, from across the Group, for their excellent performance. Every year the theme of the event is based on his philosophy that emphasis on the concern for the society. Management Team: Samir Mehta: CEO Ashok Modi: CFO & Executive Director Ashish Nanda: Director Ownership structure: % of Share holding Indian Promoters: 71.5% Foreign collaborators: 0.0% Indian institution/Mutual Fund: 7.0% FIIs: 12.6% ADR/ GDR: 0.0% Free float: 8.8% Financial Highlights: Particulars 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 SALES, PROFIT & DIVIDEND Revenue 4653 4185 3211 2696 226 EBDITA 1291 962 702 512 417 EBIT 1100 875 619 431 355 Profitbefore Exceptional Items&Tax (PBT) 940 844 619 424 342 ProfitafterTax & MinorityInterest(PAT) 751 664 433 284 270 Dividend(Amount) 190 169 195 72 68 Total DividendPerShare (RS) 11.25 10 23 8.5 8 Special DividendPerShare (RS) - - 10 - - Normal DividendPerShare (RS) 11.25 10 13 8.5 8 Normal DividendPerShare (RS)- AdjustedforBonus 11.25 10 6.5 4.25 4
  • 60. 60 | P a g e