1. The Process of Human Resource Planning
• Organizations need to do human resource
planning so they can meet business objectives
and gain a competitive advantage over
competitors.
– Human resource planning compares the present state
of the organization with its goals for the future
– Then identifies what changes it must make in its
human resources to meet those goals
3. Human Resource Forecasting
• HR Forecasting attempts There are three major
to determine the supply steps to forecasting:
and demand for various
types of human resources, 1. Forecasting the demand
and to predict areas for labor
within the organization 2. Determining labor
where there will be labor supply
shortages or surpluses. 3. Determining labor
surpluses and shortages
5. Forecasting the Demand for Labor
Trend Analysis
• Constructing and applying statistical models that predict
labor demand for the next year, given relatively objective
statistics from the previous year.
Leading Indicators
• Objective measures that accurately predict future labor
demand.
7. SIMULATION MODEL/REGRESSION FORECAST
TARGET STORES STAFFING FORECAST
MODEL
Y = 8 + .0011(X1) + .00004(X2) + .02(X3)
Y = Number of employees needed to staff the store
X1 = Square feet of sales space
X2 = Population of metropolitan area
X3 = Projected annual disposable income in millions of dollars
Y = 8 + .0011(50,000sq ft) + .00004(150,000popul) + .00000002($850 million)
Y = 8 + 55 + 6 + 17
Y = 86 employees needed at this store
9. Determining Labor Supply
Predicting Worker Flows and Availabilities
• Succession or Replacement Charts
Who has been groomed/developed and is ready for promotion right NOW?
• Human Resource Information Systems (HRIS)
An employee database that can be searched when vacancies occur.
• Transition Matrices (Markov Analysis)
A chart that lists job categories held in one period and shows the proportion of
employees in each of those job categories in a future period.
It answers two questions:
1. “Where did people in each job category go?”
2. “Where did people now in each job category come from?
• Personnel / Yield Ratios
How much work will it take to recruit one new accountant?
10. SUCCESSION PLANNING
REPLACEMENT CHART
FOR EXECUTIVE POSITIONS
POSITION REPLACEMENT CARDS
FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL POSITION
------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION WESTERN DIVISION SALES MANAGER
DANIEL BEALER Western Division Sales Mgr Outstanding Ready Now
PRESENT PROMOTION
POSSIBLE CANDIDATES CURRENT POSITION PERFORMANCE POTENTIAL
SHARON GREEN Western Oregon Sales Manager Outstanding
Ready Now
GEORGE WEI N. California Sales Manager Outstanding
Needs Training
HARRY SHOW Idaho/Utah Sales Manager Satisfactory Needs Training
TRAVIS WOOD Seattle Area Sales Manager Satisfactory Questionable
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
11. HUMAN RESOURCE INFORMATION SYSTEMS
(HRIS)
PERSONAL DATA
Age, Gender, Dependents, Marital status, etc
EDUCATION & SKILLS
Degrees earned, Licenses, Certifications
Languages spoken, Specialty skills
Ability/knowledge to operate specific machines/equipment/software
JOB HISTORY
Job Titles held, Location in Company, Time in each position, etc.
Performance appraisals, Promotions received, Training & Development
MEMBERSHIPS & ACHIEVEMENTS
Professional Associations, Recognition and Notable accomplishments
PREFERENCES & INTERESTS
Career goals, Types of positions sought
Geographic preferences
CAPACITY FOR GROWTH
Potential for advancement, upward mobility and growth in the company
14. MARKOV ANALYSIS – 2
(Captures effects of internal transfers)
(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX
FROM/ TO: TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT
TOP 100 .80 .02 .18
MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10
LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15
SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15
ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07
---------------------------------------------------------
END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left]
NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 240* 368 tot
NEED LAYOFFS ? (10)* (10) tot
KEEP STABLE 100 200 600 600 2000 = 3500 Tot
15. MARKOV ANALYSIS – 3
(Anticipates Changes in Employment Levels)
Employment needs are changing. We need a 10% increase in skilled workers
(660), and a 15% decrease in assembly workers (1700) by year’s end.
-------------------------------------------------------
(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX
FROM/ TO: TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT
TOP 100 .80 .02 .18
MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10
LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15
SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15
ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07
---------------------------------------------------------
END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left]
NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 50*
NEED LAYOFFS ? (60)*
NEW LEVELS 100 200 600 600 1700 = 3260 tot
16. Determining Labor Surplus or Shortage
• Based on the forecasts for labor demand and
supply, the planner can compare the figures to
determine whether there will be a shortage or
surplus of labor for each job category.
• Determining expected shortages and surpluses
allows the organization to plan how to address
these challenges.
17. PERSONNEL / YIELD RATIOS
Past experience has developed these yield ratios for recruiting a Cost Accountant:
FOR EVERY 12 APPLICATIONS RECEIVED, ONLY 1 LOOKS
PROMISING ENOUGH TO INVITE FOR AN INTERVIEW
OF EVERY 5 PERSONS INTERVIEWED, ONLY 1 IS ACTUALLY
OFFERED A POSITION IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF EVERY 3 JOB OFFERS MADE, ONLY 2 ACCEPT THE POSITION
OF EVERY 10 NEW WORKERS WHO BEGIN THE TRAINING
PROGRAM, ONLY 9 SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETE THE PROGRAM
THUS: 100 APPLICATIONS MUST BE RECEIVED, so that
8.33 JOB INTERVIEWS CAN BE HELD, so that
1.67 JOB OFFERS CAN BE MADE, and
1.11 PEOPLE MUST BE TRAINED, so that we get
ONE NEW COST ACCOUNTANT!!!
Notas do Editor
Trends and events that affect the economy also create opportunities and problems in obtaining human resources. To prepare for and respond to these challenges, organizations engage in human resource planning – defined in Chapter 1 as identifying the numbers and types of employees the organization will require to meet its objectives.
Figure 5.1 shows the human resource planning process. The process consists of three stages: Forecasting Goal setting and strategic planning Program implementation and evaluation
The first step in human resource planning is forecasting. The primary goal is to predict which areas of the organization will experience labor shortages or surpluses.
Usually an organization forecasts demand for specific job categories or skill areas. After identifying the relevant job categories or skills, the planner investigates the likely demand for each. The planner must forecast whether the need for people with the necessary skills and experience will increase or decrease. There are several ways of making such forecasts.
Once a company has forecast the demand for labor, it needs an indication of the firm’s labor supply.
Table 5.1 is an example of a transitional matrix. Matrices such as this one are extremely useful for charting historical trends in the company’s labor supply.
Issues related to a labor surplus or shortage can pose serious challenges for the organization.
