Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Global insights audio-slides-07-13-11
1. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
2. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
3. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
4. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
5. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
6. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
7. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
8. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
9. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
10. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
11. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
12. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 13TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
13. This chart is from the discussion recordedJULY 11TH, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original recording for this slide at either www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights or www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights
Notas do Editor
US BUDGET TALKS FAIL - Big Deal LostIt appears the talks broke down on the weekend for a major solution. The grand standing will continue and keep the media pre-occupied. Bloomberg is reporting that House Speaker John Boehner said he will pursue a smaller deficit reduction accord than the one that President Barack Obama is seeking because the White House won’t approve "a bigger deal without tax increases". Boehner released a statement that: “He believes the best approach may be to focus on producing a smaller measure.” JAPAN'S EARTHQUAKE - Off the Coast of Fukushima ProvinceAccording to ABC News' Akiko Fujita, there was a 7.1 magnitude quake off the coast of Japan, and there is a tsunami advisory in effect for Fukushima, Iwate, and Miyagi provinces. Kyodo Wire is reporting that warnings are in effect, but that (as of yet) there are no abnormalities at the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
Public support for spending cuts as a remedy for Britain's faltering economy has fallen starkly in the past year. In the UK public support dropped from 69% to 55% while there was just as significant a rise to 45% who thought that spending cuts would harm the recovery. Nearly 9 out 10 thought spending cuts had affected their family. Ty, your London cab driver must have been in this survey! I outlined in a paper I wrote when Cameron was elected on an austerity program that when the results hit the individual things would change dramatically. As long as it was something that didn’t directly impact them, then iot was a good idea.What is that old adage: A poor economy is where people in your down get laid off. A Recession is where your neighbor gets laid off and a Depression is where you get laid off!
Absolute disaster. Total jobs per the establishment survey: +18K on expectations of 105K, Private Jobs + 57K on expectations of 132K. Last month total was revised from 54K to 25K. Combined April and May revision down 44K. The household survey was down by 445K from 139,779 to 139,334. Birth death adjustment + 131K. They just couldn’t pump the Birth Death Model any higher. Any more than 75 higher and this chart is a straight line trend up. 75 was still not enough. There is a ‘band width’ within which they can play games or the annual adjustments would be off the charts obvious.PLUS Obama on Friday blamed the UNCERTAINTY of the Debt Ceiling Negotiations as a root cause.
As bad as this looks …..Cisco announced on Tuesday it is planning to fire as many as 10,000 people. According to the plans, which have yet to be finalized, the company will can 7,000 employees by the end of August. Another 3,000 have accepted buyouts. These cuts are far greater than the ones Cisco announced on its last disastrous earnings call. They represent 14% of the company's workforce.I know Cisco is an important employer in the greater Boston area!
This is even more scary.Geithner told NBC's "Meet on Sunday morning that it's a very tough economy. He says that for a lot of people – and I quote: "it's going to feel very hard, harder than anything they've experienced in their lifetime now, for a long time to come." ...the Press"He says President Barack Obama rescued the United States from a second Great Depression and will keep working to strengthen the economy. Geithnersays hard times to continue for many - MEET THE PRESS - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says many Americans will face hard times for a long time to come.
The Jobs are not there!Remember the chart we showed last week of teenagers unable to find jobs. From 1 in 2 when I was a teenage, to 1 in 5 this summer.
Finally, clearly evident – FUDGING JUST CAN’T HIDE IT.
Euro-Zone Bonds Are the Only Answer-Politicians have been trying to achieve the impossible in Greece: They have insisted that private-sector involvement be substantial, quantifiable, voluntary and avoid triggering a default rating. The first is impossible since European banks, those most likely to participate in a rollover, hold only €30 billion (about $43 billion) of debt maturing before 2014. A truly voluntary deal, meanwhile, makes it impossible to quantify the amount; only through coercion can certainty be achieved. And even if the first three conditions could be met, ratings firms have made clear that virtually any deal would involve a default. The euro zone needs to recognize its efforts to insulate other countries from a Greek default have failed. It now needs urgently to find ways to restore their access to markets. It's increasingly clear that will require some form of euro-zone bond issuance, most likely based on the European Financial Stability Facility. EFSF borrowing costs must be reduced, and the vehicle made more flexible, including allowing it to be used as a means to buy back Greek bonds, thereby reducing its debt burden. Failure to act decisively now will put the currency bloc's survival at risk.
As if things are bad enough for the GIIPS we have another problem surfacing. Something we warned about in early February inBeware of Lurking EU Bank Runs .Ordinary bank depositors in Greece and Ireland are beginning to shift their money out of the retail banks. Fearful of bank failures, and / or the break-up of the euro followed by currency devaluations, people are either hoarding cash under the mattress, or seeking safer havens like bank accounts in Germany. Since the beginning of the crisis, the Greek and Irish banking institutions have lost about 15% of their retail deposits as the chart below illustrates.The consequence of this bank run is that the ECB has had to replace and fund this source of bank deposits as well. Though the pace of withdrawal of bank deposits in Greece and Ireland is not quite as fast as that which occurred during the 2000-2002 Argentinean crisis and as not yet showing acceleration, it adds an unpredictable and volatile element to the crisis.
EU has been NOW been forced to consider a change of strategy over Greece The latest change in tack identifies a wholly different threat: the level of Greek debt itself - i.e. SOLVENCY. The new assumption is that unless Greece can bring down its overall debt level its economy will never recover, since the government will be unable to invest and private lenders will never believe that their money is safe. Previously the biggest perceived danger was "contagion" and therefore solutions had then debt being slowly reduced BUT the public sector owning a larger share of the debt. This means European lenders will need to eliminate large swaths of the debt itself - the market is not reacting well to this.
Merkel is pressing Italy on €40bn austerity deal FT1- Italian Growth has stalled – no growth over the last 6 months2- 2nd Biggest Debt-to-GDP ratio in Europe3- Budget Cutting Doesn’t start until 20134- Political System in Fragile (an understatement – Burelsconi’s company Fininvest gets $1B savings, Finance Ministers apartment scandal)5- Labor Productivity is not rebounding – NO Structural Adjustments6- Recent Downgrades and Unicredito 26% drop and trading halt – something wrong somewhere!!!
FRANCE "We had a social elevator that worked quite well in the 1970's, 80's and 90's, but today it is no longer working. Lots of people with diplomas cannot find work."Only 8% polled thought their children would have it better. The state is "Disengaging". There is a sense that the state is withdrawing from the public services which has increased uncertainties for a middle class used to having the safety net of affordable education, transportation and healthcare. More household income is now being spent on electricity, gas, water and fuel, which take up roughly 38% of houshold spending today, against 21% in 1979. There is a strong fear of falling down the social ladder. The National Observatory of Poverty and Social Exclusion cities some 740,000 qualified fee-based workers - such as notaries, accountants and even lawyers - as poor. The fear is that the middle class status is no longer a given, not even for those who actually have good jobs.
