Et110902 nl 110711_round_table_f

Dutch Chemical Industry Vision 2030/50
Round Table

11 July 2011, Den Haag

Today’s objectives

• Present a summary of the current situation and key trends in the European and Dutch chemical industry

• Present summary of possible scenario‟s (2030/50) for the future of the chemical industry

• Discuss the impact of the scenarios on the vision for the Dutch Chemical industry

1 © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

Agenda

13:00 Introduction

13:15 The VNCI Vision 2030/50 project

13:30 The Chemical Industry - Today

14:00 Scenarios for the Future of the Dutch Chemical Industry

14:30 Break-out discussions

15:30 Break

15:45 Break-out feedback and plenary discussion

17:00 Adjourn


Introductions

Round Table Participants

• Don Huberts (Linde Gas) • Peter Bertens (Nefarma)

• Fer Klinckhamers (Tronox Pigments) • Rein Coster (VNCI)

• Hans Vreeswijk (Croda) • Theo Olijve (LyondellBasell)

• Jaap Oldenziel (Air Liquide) • Thomas Deman (ExxonMobil)

• Jan Smook (MSD) • Wim Pielage (Elementis Specialties)

• Joost Berting (Eastman) • Vincent Oomes (Deloitte)

• Joke Driessen (Shell) • Willem Vaessen (Deloitte)

• Jos van Damme (Yara Sluiskil) • Peter Sanders (Deloitte)

• Marc van Doorn (OCI Agro) • Eva Warnaar (Deloitte)

• Mark Vester (Sabic)

• Melt de Haas (ARKEMA)

• Paul Evers (BASF)


Agenda

13:00 Introduction





15:30 Break


17:00 Adjourn


VNCI wants to create a shared view on the Dutch Chemical Industry in
2030/50 within the European context

• The Chemical Industry is critical for the Dutch economy, but is going through profound changes

• The VNCI wants to ensure that key players inside and outside the sector remain committed to it

• This requires alignment around a common long term view on the industry, going beyond the current
asset base

• The VNCI Vision 2030/50 should include:
- Current position and importance of the Dutch Chemical Industry
- Scenarios for 2030/50 related to
- Macro trends
- Innovation and Knowledge
- Products and Applications
- Feedstock and Assets
- A description Dutch Chemical Industry in 2030/50


Today’s workshop provides critical input for the VNCI Vision 2030/50

VNCI Vision 2030/50 development process

Project set-up, Strategic Radar Round tables Interviews key VNCI Conference
desk research and workshops with all VNCI players in Dutch
interviews with Members Chemical Industry
thought leaders
AkzoNobel
DSM
1. Innovation
Round table 1 Shell
and knowledge
SABIC
Dow
2. Products and ExxonMobil
Round table 2
applications

3. Feedstock and
Round table 3
assets

Current situation Scenarios for the First vision for the Validated vision for Final vision for the
and views from NL Chemical industry in 2030/50 the industry in industry in 2030/50
others Industry 2030/50 2030/50


In the roundtables we would like to discuss the potential impact of trends on
the Dutch Chemical industry
The VNCI Radar Screen

Business
models Enabling
Raw technologies
materials
outlook Regulation

Renewable 3. Feed- 1. Innova-
feedstock stock and tion
assets and R&D infra-
know- structure
Global The future of
ledge
logistics the NL and
EU Chemical
Industry? Open
Sustain-
innovation
ability

2. Products and
Demand applications Competing
by sector technologies

Demand by New users,
geography New usage

Population


Agenda

13:00 Introduction





15:30 Break


17:00 Adjourn


De chemische industrie in NW-EU bekleedt een sterke positie in een snel
veranderende omgeving

Chemische industrie nu
Beschrijving • NW EU bekleedt een sterke positie op de wereldmarkt voor chemie, gebaseerd op een belangrijke
exportrelatie met in het bijzonder de VS
• Het sterk geïntegreerde NW EU-cluster produceert een heel breed spectrum van chemische producten,
wat een voortdurende focus op de ontwikkeling van specialiteitschemicaliën mogelijk maakt
Macro Innovatie en kennis Producten en Grondstoffen en
toepassingen bedrijfsmiddelen
Enkele trends • BBP-verschuiving • Convergeren van • Toenemende focus op • Nieuwe groei van
voor de periode naar het oosten technologieën duurzaamheid petrochemische
tot 2030/50 • Groeiende en • Nieuwe • Producten die bedrijfsmiddelen in Azië
vergrijzende hulptechnologieën aansluiten bij en het Midden-Oosten
bevolking komen op macrotrends • Diversificatie van
• Toenemende (materiaaltechniek en (vergrijzende bevolking, grondstoffen
nano- en voedselschaarste, (schaliegas, teerzand,
schaarste van energietechnologie ,
hulpbronnen koolstofarme technologie
duurzaamheid, enz.) biomaterialen etc.)
(energie, grond, en biotechnologie en • Nieuwe technologieën • Schaliegas in VS zou
water, zeldzame farmaceutica, enz.) (biotechniek, gevolgen kunnen
aardschatten) • Veranderend gebruik supermoleculaire chemie, hebben voor
procesintensificatie)
• Toenemende druk van intellectueel exportpositie EU
eigendom en • Convergentie van
op het milieu en • Miniaturisatie van
opkomende open eindmarkten
klimaatverandering nieuwe bedrijfsmiddelen
innovatiemodellen • Eindmarkt verschuift gestimuleerd door de
• ...
• ... naar het oosten trend naar
• ... specialiteitsproducten
• ...

De Nederlandse chemische industrie heeft de afgelopen twintig jaar haar
relatieve aandeel in de Europese markt vergroot

Omzet chemische industrie* (€ miljard)
2.043
CAGR ‟91-‟09 CAGR ‟91-‟09
1.925
1.871
1.790
4,8% Afrika 3,5%
1.636
Oceanië 3,6%
1.450 1.416 1.438 Latijns-Am 5,5%
1.362 1.329
Noord-Am 3,7%
1.157 1.105 1.166 VS 3,2%
1.000 1.021 Europa 3,7%
951
880
810 815 NL 3,0%
FR 1,6%
DE 1,4%
Azië 7,5%
JP 0,5%
CN 15,9%

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
NL 2,7% 2,6% 2,1% 2,2% 2,4% 2,2% 2,2% 2,2% 2,1% 2,3% 2,2% 2,4% 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,6% 2,0%
Aandeel van totaal
EU 38% 39% 35% 36% 37% 37% 35% 36% 35% 33% 34% 35% 36% 35% 33% 32% 32% 31% 27%

Bron: Cefic Chemdata International
* Omzet wordt bepaald aan de hand van de productiewaarde


Europa heeft haar sterke positie in de wereldwijde chemische industrie
opgebouwd als netto-exporteur van chemische producten...
Chemische handelsbalans EU* (€ miljard)
600
Export buiten de EU
Export binnen de EU
500
Binnenlandse omzet 126 130
120
Import buiten de EU 109
400 95 105 117
100 104 104
70 70 78
300 55 59
45 46 54 241 263 268
48
117 130 133
159 159 162
163 189 220
60 98 99 222
200 63 79
65

100 190 181 168 177 183 182 181 170 164 180 177 167 161 159
153 150 143 150
109
0 -29 -30 -28 -33 -37 -37 -45 -49 -50 -61 -63 -63 -62 -66 -72 -81 -90 -91 -75
-100
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Buiten
15% 16% 17% 17% 16% 17% 19% 19% 21% 22% 23% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 26%
(%)
Binnen
20% 22% 23% 25% 29% 29% 32% 35% 36% 37% 37% 37% 38% 42% 46% 47% 50% 49% 50%
(%)
* Europese Unie
Bron: Cefic Chemdata International


...naar de VS, Latijns-Amerika, Afrika en het Midden-Oosten

Chemische handel 2009 in miljard US$

60

96 83
45
59 73
19
17
19

16 17

20
3

2

Interregionale handel
19
Intraregionale handel

Bron: Wereldhandelsorganisatie
Opmerking: bij Europa is de handel van het Gemenebest van Onafhankelijke Staten inbegrepen


De traditionele grondstoffen zijn sterk geconcentreerd in het Midden-Oosten
waardoor chemische fabrieken daar concurrentievoordeel hebben...

Olievoorraden Gasvoorraden Koolvoorraden
1.333 187 826.001
42 8 15.006
33.399
1.22173 172 9
41 7
1.106 61199 15
154 8
40 103 7 14 16

Biljoen kubieke meter
1.029 246.097
1.004
39 69 137 8
36 13
89 98 117 128 6 12
Duizend miljoen vaten

126 9

Miljoen ton
96
84 93 5 12
772
72 143137 10 10
39 59 72 109 9 11 63
667 102 81 82 95 57
10
34 3 259.253
81 10 56
92 63 3 6
27 57 10 8 57
53 79
6 55
99 4
756
754
660 663 697 40
33
73 76
432 59 272.246
362 45
38
25 28

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 2010

Latijns-Amerika Noord-Amerika Afrika Azië-Pacific Europa* Midden-Oosten
* Inclusief Eurazië
Bron: BP Statistics


...samen met de eindmarktontwikkelingen verklaart dit de toenemende
ethyleenproductie in het Midden-Oosten en Azië

Midden-Oosten (x1000 ton) West-Europa (x1000 ton)
100 100

75 75

50 50 0%
+11% 37 39 40
34 33 33 33 31
27 30 31 31 32 33 33 30 29 29 29
25 21 25
16 18 19
11 13 13 14 15

0 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010E 2012E 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010E 2012E
Noord-Amerika (x1000 ton) Azië (x1000 ton)
100 100
87 89 90
83
+7%
75 75 72
67
-1% 62
56
51
50 45 46 46 45 45 46 47 46 46 45 44 43 42 42 50 43 46
36 38 41

25 25

0 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010E 2012E 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010E 2012E
Bron: Deloitte-analyse PVC HDPE LLDPE LDPE Styreen Ethyleenglycol Etheenoxide



Binnen Europa bevindt Nederland zich echter in een goede positie en
kan het aandeel veroveren op andere Europese producenten

Ethyleenproductiekosten (US$/ton)

2.100

Nederland
1.400
Noordoost-
Noord- Azië
Amerika
Europa

Zuidoost-Azië
700

Midden-
Oosten
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Cumulatieve ethyleencapaciteit (miljoen ton)

Bron: APIC CMAI, gesprekken met deskundigen, Deloitte-analyse

Deze positie op de kostencurve is te danken aan sterk onderling
samenhangende productiefaciliteiten... RAPL (ruwe olie)

Stoomkraker PALL (nafta)
Productiecapaciteit voor ethyleen in 2010 Pijpleiding voor industriële
Olefineverbruiker(s)
gassen
NL-BE-DE Raffinaderij
Raffinaderij + olefineproducent Pijpleiding voor ethyleen
vertegenwoordigt
44% van de capaciteit Pijpleiding voor propyleen

Rest van Europa

Noorwegen

Zweden Rotterdam
Pernis
Marl
Nederland Moerdijk
Verenigd Koninkrijk Gelsenkirchen
Vlissingen Rheinberg

België Terneuzen
Polen Antwerpen
Tsjechische Republiek Meerhout Tessenderlo
Duitsland Duinkerke Keulen
Geleen
Roemenië
Frankrijk Oostenrijk Beringen
Hongarije
Spanje Feluy Jemeppe
Wesseling
Italië
Frankfurt

3.000 MT
Ludwigshafen
Bron: CMAI, Deutsche Bank, Deloitte-analyse


...en relatief grote fabrieken

Alkanen (butaan/propaan/ethaan) Ontvlambare vloeistoffen (op naftabasis)
2.500 2.500

2.000 2.000
Capaciteit, x1000 ton

NL
1.500 1.500 BE
NL
DE
1.000 1.000 NL

500 500

0 0
Azië Latijns-A. MO NA W-EU Azië Latijns-A. MO NA W-EU
Liquevicaties (procesgestuurd in plaats van opslag) Gas, mengsels en overig
2.500 2.500

2.000 2.000


1.500 1.500
DE
1.000 1.000 DE

500 500

0 0
Azië Latijns-A. MO NA W-EU Azië Latijns-A. MO NA W-EU
Bron: CMAI Deloitte-analyse

Macrotrends
In de toekomst zal de economische macht naar verwachting verschuiven naar het
oosten; in 2050 zal Azië bijna 50% van de wereldeconomie vertegenwoordigen

Bevolking in miljard Energieverbruik in biljard Btu Reëel BBP in biljoen US$ (2005)*
3,7 7,0 9,5 473 591 739 12 38 160
4% 4% 4% 2% 4%
10% 5% 3%
15% 6% 6% 3% 3% 4%
21%
8%
6% 9% 22% 20%
26% 24% US
5% 8% 35% 34%
18% 5%
11%
8% 20%
23% 3%
6% 5%
28% 3%
4% 6%
7% 4% JP
7%
11% 6% 10% IN
58% 61% 58%
50% 8%
45%
37% 12%
29% CN
14%
9%

1970 2010 2050 2005 2020 2035 1970** 2009** 2050
Afrika Latijns-Amerika Noord-Amerika Europa Azië-Pacific

* Inclusief G20-landen, exclusief de Europese Unie als geheel
** In 1970/2007 vertegenwoordigde de G20 (excl. EU) respectievelijk 80% en 79% van het totale BBP
Bron: United Nations World Populations Prospects 2009, Worldbank, Carnegie World Order in 2050, EIA


Macrotrends
De toenemende bevolking vergrijst en zal voor het merendeel in stedelijke
gebieden wonen, waardoor de vervuilingsdruk groter wordt…

Verstedelijking (%) per regio Bevolking per leeftijdsgroep
80-99 60-79 40-59 20-39 0-19

1970 2010 2050 Afrika Azië

14% 10% 9%
14% 16% 19%
21% 23%
27% 30% 27% 26%
32% 32%
90 26%
89 55% 51% 51%
84 36% 35% 24%
82
80
74 75 1970 2010 2050 1970 2010 2050
73
71 70
Europa Latijns-Amerika
65
62 63 14% 9% 9%
18% 15% 20%
57 23% 25% 21%
29% 26% 27%
28% 24% 32%
28% 22% 25%
42 53%
40 34% 37%
21% 20% 23%

1970 2010 2050 1970 2010 2050
24 23
Noord-Amerika Oceanië

12% 15% 9% 13%
20% 21% 17%
23% 24%
28% 24%
25% 28%
27% 28%
27% 25% 26%
Afrika Azië Europa Latijns- Noord- Oceanië
39% 42% 32%
Amerika Amerika 27% 23% 26%

Bron: United Nations World Populations Prospects 2009 1970 2010 2050 1970 2010 2050


Macrotrends
...en mogelijk tekorten aan water en belangrijke hulpbronnen ontstaan

Wateronttrekking in % van totaal beschikbaar Hulpbronnen (aantal jaar tot uitputting)
Top 3 Marktaandeel
1995 producenten van top 3 (%)

Soda 180 CN, VS, IN Onbeduidend

Aluminium 161 CN, RU, CA 55%

Kolen 148 CN, VS, IN 69%

Fosfaat 75 CN, VS, MA 75%

2025 IJzererts 64 CN, AU, BR 50% ***
Koper 44 CL, VS, PE 47%

Antimonium 30 CN, BO, SA 95%

Zilver 29 PE, MX, CN 44%

Indium 13 CN, JP, KO 78%

Meer dan 20% - 10%
40%
40% - 20% Minder dan 10% Zeldzame
metalen
Bron: UNEP, VGG group, Deloitte-analyse


Het Europese bestand van grondstoffen en bedrijfsmiddelen moet worden
uitgebreid met nieuwe grondstoffen en Europa moet inspelen op de nieuwe
mogelijkheden op het gebied van innovatie

Innovatie en kennis

• Explosieve toename van • Nieuwe procestechnologieën • Explosieve toename van
materialen en producten • Nieuwe moleculaire selectie materialen en producten
• ... en modellering • Cradle to Cradle-ontwerpen
• Procesintensificatie en • ...
• productie met weinig
bedrijfsmiddelen
• ...

Producten en
Grondstoffen Bedrijfsmiddelen
toepassingen

• Uitbreiding van bedrijfsmiddelen • Verschuiving naar het oosten
• Schaarste van hulpbronnen
voor basischemicaliën in Azië • Groeiende en vergrijzende
stimuleert nieuwe bevolking
en het MO
grondstoffen, zoals biomassa- • Toenemend bewustzijn van
• Focus op klimaatverandering en
afval duurzaamheid klimaatverandering en
• ... • Verschuiving bedrijfsmiddelen duurzaamheid
op basis van biomassa naar • Convergentie van eindmarkten
herkomst van grondstoffen • ...
• ...
Macrotrends


We will use the scenario planning in the next section to determine the
impact of the key uncertainties that have been identified

Key Industry drivers

High Decreasing GDP Shift
EU export Global
GDP growth
Polarisation : Governance*
Ageing Slow EU end Local for local Scarcity of Awareness
population market growth bulk – global energy Talent Technological Environment.
specialty shortage developments** change
Population Water Possibility of
shift Food
Increasing scarcity scarcity2 Convergence new energy
role of of end- sources
Impact

Global
clusters Rare metals markets1
Land scarcity Regulation
Education scarcity
Consolidation Role of IP
shift
bulk chemicals
EU in NW-EU CO2 Emis-
population Continuing sion growth
ageing first specialisation of
NW-EU chem.
Urbanisation
Low
Key uncertainties for scenarios

Low Uncertainty High

Driving Forces Key Uncertainties
* Protectionist vs cooperative ** Effect of super moculair modelling, nano technology, synthetic biology, process intensification, increased computing
power etc 1) Food, agro, nutrition, health etc 2) Scarcity is expected to drive up prices


Agenda

13:00 Introduction





15:30 Break


17:00 Adjourn


Based on desk research, expert interviews and workshops 4 possible
industry scenarios have been identified...
Dutch Chemical Industry Scenarios
Fragmented
Future
Scenarios • The world will fragment
in order to ensure self
• Scenarios are alternative future sufficiency
environments in which todays
decisions may be played out Green
• Scenarios are not predictions Revolution
but descriptions of different • High climate change
futures specifically designed to and sustainability
highlight the uncertainties awareness in society
inherent in specific strategic Today
Solar
issues Revolution
• Alternative scenarios provide a • Solar PV decreases
way of focusing on the future energy prices
without locking in on one
forecast to the exclusion of Technological
other possibilities Revolution
• Rapid technological
developments

Time


...which differ around six dimensions

Fragmented Green Technological
Dimension Description Solar Revolution
Future Revolution Revolution
Growth development Low High
and international
Economy
alignment of
economic growth Decoupled Coupled

Global
Governance Global governance Protectionism
coordination*
and model and its
regulation strength Loose Strict

Energy and (international)
commodity availability of energy Abundance Scarcity
availability and feedstock

Way in which climate Local Global
Climate and
and environmental
environment
issues are addressed Focused Broad

Ethics, Social acceptance of No focus Focus
culture and new technologies and sustainability sustainability
(customer) focus on climate and Slow Fast
behaviour environment change acceptance Acceptance

Focused Diversified
Science and The orientation and
Technology speed of tech. dev.
Slow Fast
* Including free trade

In summary, potentially there will be significant overlap in the keys to
success in the different scenarios
Dutch Chemical Industry Scenarios Directional
Oil Bio Re-use

Current 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
Scenario Fragmented Future Green revolution Solar revolution Technical revolution
Description • The world will fragment in • High climate change and • Solar fuel decrease energy • Rapid technological
order to ensure self sustainability awareness in prices developments
sufficiency society
Impact on • Bio and re-use feedstock will • Societal pressure will force • Bio and re-use feedstock only • Technological possibilities
feedstock mix grow in order to become self the use of biomass and re- for new functionalities, drive use of biomass and re-
sufficient use feedstock naphtha remains dominant use feedstock
Impact on • Slow investments in current • Significant investments in • Slow investments in new • Significant investments in
assets assets to support mixing in both current and new assets , assets for specialty both current and new assets
bio and gas due societal pressure chemicals based on biomass due to technical and
economic opportunities
NW-EU • Current asset cluster will • Strongly developed biomass • Large global players will be • Further integration of the
chemistry have to integrate biomass and recycled feedstock complemented by a set of value chain to include bio and
industry and waste and scale down based production smaller players focussing on recycled feedstock
due to limited possibility to bio based and recycling incorporating new players
export players
Potential key • Create strong investment • Logistics to support full • Operational excellence for • Create a strong investment
to success for climate for biomass and integration of the cluster to the NW-EU cluster as climate to support high speed
NW-EU recycling include new feedstock and process cost-efficiency will of innovation and exploit the
adapt to convergence of agri, become dominant convergence of agriculture,
(bio)chemistry and health chemistry and health industry

Fragmented future – Scarcity of resources makes local for local markets
dominating in a fragmented world

Description Impact on Dutch Chemical Industry

Description • The world will fragment in order to secure local demands, Feedstock and Assets
local for local markets arise to ensure self sufficiency • The fragmentation of the world will disturb the global
commodity market, so alliances and trade agreements
Economy • Historical below average growth rates; Europe is decoupled
will be installed in order to secure access to feedstock
from the global economy
• Need of self sufficiency will push the use of biomass as
Governance • Self sufficiency leads to protectionism as dominant paradigm a feedstock especially the 2nd and 3rd generation
and for developing regulation biomass
regulations • The above can create conflicts between and within regions • Biomass chemical industry will growth relatively fast
as will recycling to limit the dependency on import of
Energy and • Local for local markets drive high energy and commodity
feedstock
Commodity prices on the distorted international market place
prices
Industry Structure
Climate and • Concerns for climate and pollution arise locally especially in • The global chemical industry will be affected by trade
environment wealthy regions with energy dependency barriers and nationalistic protectionism, forcing local for
local production
Ethics, • Local and regional debates about the availability of food and
culture and energy are dominant, of course depending on local resource • Protection of new technologies and conservative
(customer) availability investment climate could favour incumbents, however
behaviour being a global company looses significance
• Social values strong local focus
• Need to grow biomass production could lead to
Science and • Technological developments are guarded and protected by decentralisation of assets
Technology regions
• Efficiency will dominate over innovation and
• Local policies force technological developments into relevant sustainability, which enables the Netherlands to supply
(local) solution areas the rest of Europe for traditional petro chemicals
• New „sustainable‟ technologies will arise in energy and
commodity dependent regions
Products and Applications
• The end market growth will be relatively slow in EU,
trade barriers limit export position


Green Revolution – High social awareness will force very fast transition
towards a sustainable world


Description • High awareness for climate change, sustainability and Feedstock and Assets
energy efficiency dominates the future stimulated by • Traditional petro based feedstock will be complemented
scientific evidence linking climate change to changes in and partly replaced with 2nd and 3rd generation
rainfall, weather patterns, sea levels and new diseases biomass and strong focus on re-use / recycling
Economy • Low to average growth rates • The availability of biomass will be the limiting factor
• Traditional petro chemical industry will integrate
Governance • Increased compliance with regulations for sustainability, biomass into the current cluster
and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and safety
• Additional focus on biomass can drive decentralisation
regulations • Carbon credits and greenhouse gas emissions are installed and miniaturisation of (new supporting) assets, this will
• Protectionism in trade increased to create global compliance be supported by the decentralised energy supply
Energy and • Energy costs increase due to policies on carbon and
Commodity greenhouse gas emissions which are priced in Industry Structure
prices • Commodity prices increase due to protectionism • The consumer pressure for sustainability in combination
with the integration with the agrofood and health sector
Climate and • Evidence force market to shift gears, awareness for climate will potentially introduce new players into sector (e.g.
environment and environmental changes increase van Gansewinkel, Danisco)
• This creates focus to reduce waste across other industries as • Further development of clusters and ecosystems to
agriculture, animal production and manufacturing close energy and product loops in production systems
Ethics, • Social values place greater emphasis on environmental
culture and sustainable products Products and Applications
(customer) • Customer greatly value sustainable products, practices and • Cradle to cradle design will dominate new product
behaviour companies incorporating climate change considerations design and development potentially further integration
of the global supply chain
Science and • Demand for clean, energy-efficient and sustainable products
Technology in response to the climate change requires investment in • Consumer values will allow premiums to be paid for
basic and applied research products forcing a tipping point to scale up production

• Technological innovation will focus on broad range of fields as
the increase of crop yields are developed to minimise the
conflict between food and feedstock and to scale up bio based
29 chemistry (e.g. pyrolysis process) © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

Solar Revolution – Solar fuel will break through on a large scale


Description • Solar fuel (or other energy solutions) will break through Feedstock and Assets
on large scale decreasing the costs of electricity • Low electricity costs will push the break through of the
electric vehicles limiting the demand of the transport and
Economy • Global economy will develop in a highly coupled way at above
energy sector for oil
growth rates through increased globalised demand due to
lower transport costs • Oil and gas prices will decrease making petro
chemistry attractive in comparison to bio based
Governance • Free trade – as result of negotiated and agreed policies for chemistry this will limited the push for up scaling of bio
and production, trade, H&S and environmental sustainability - is based assets
regulations stimulated by lower transport costs. • Additionally the petro chemistry in NW-EU will become
Energy and • Lower energy, commodity and feedstock prices as result of more cost competitive as feedstock price differences by
Commodity the technical break-through region will decrease and process efficiency becomes
prices leading (again)
• Economies of scale and scope (products) will determine
Climate and • Environmental concerns de-emphasize energy-efficiency and the competitiveness of the NW-EU petro-chemicals
environment will focus on mitigating effects of toxics allowed by decent plants.
profits
• Development of bio based chemicals will remain
Ethics, • Consumers keep focus on the effects of toxics on important to create new functionalities for new product
culture and environment and debate on ethics of biotechnology, development
(consumer) nanotechnology and genetically modified products is
behaviour negotiated due to increased demand for products Industry Structure
Science and • Solar photovoltaics (or other energy solution) has increased • Given the staying power of the NW-EU petro chemical
Technology its efficiency and realises low cost energy availability industry large global players will be complemented by a
throughout the world, opening opportunities for high energy set of smaller players focussing on bio based and re-use
use technologies / recycling
• Strong GDP stimulates innovation of environmental
sustainable products with focus on limiting the effects of toxics Products and Application
• Strong GDP growth combined with a more globalised world • The cost competitive position of NW-EU will relief the
will continuously strain the availability of talent in Europe pressure on the export position
• Key transportation and automotive sectors will go
30 through major transformation © 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

Technological Revolution – Rapid technological developments create an
explosion of new materials and supporting process technologies


Description • Rapid technological development dominates future Feedstock and Assets
• The trend towards asset light production and
Economy • Global economy will develop in a coupled way at above
miniaturisation of assets combined with new feedstock
average growth rates with increased globalised demand
possibilities could lead to asset decentralisation.
Governance • Trade policies will move to free trade - health, safety and • Relative free global trade will lead to regional
and environmental regulation are negotiated and strict. specialisation for bulk chemical industry making the EU
regulations • The above leads to predictable and long-term policy direction bulk chemical less prominent supported by the continued
supporting technological innovation and investment (expected) reliance on import for naphtha based
feedstock and biomass
Energy and • Economic and population growth strain supply and lead to
• New asset in the Netherlands and Europe will be
Commodity increased costs for fuel and traditional petrochemicals
producing speciality chemicals based on biomass and
prices • High food, commodity and energy prices recycled feedstock
Climate and • Strong industrialisation and urbanisation in emerging markets • Artificial photosynthesis provides new (feedstock for)
environment create concern for energy consumption, climate change and chemicals , decreasing oil and biomass dependency
pollution
Industry Structure
Ethics, • Consumers are relatively fast in adopting new products and
culture and society looks for technological innovation to meet the need for • Technology enabled inclusion of different feedstock
(consumer) clean products potentially allows new industry players to enter
behaviour • Ethical concerns for biotechnology, nanotechnology and GMP • Technology driven end market cluster will leverage
are pushed to the background their knowledge and innovation capability globally to
create an export position
Science and • Technologies as artificial photosynthesis can mitigate the CO2
• Traditional players and new-comers will co-exist
Technology effect and produce hydrocarbons for chemicals
• Rapid technological breakthroughs and innovation using new
feedstock, new production methods and making new products Products and Application
using: converged biosciences, materials sciences, self • New product explosion will continue to create higher
assembly and nano technologies. added value products in combination with growing global
• This is supported by a highly connected IP free world leading demand could lead to stable European export position
to increasing speed of innovation • This export position is build on high added value markets
as nutrition, health and personal care

Agenda

13:00 Introduction





15:30 Break


17:00 Adjourn


Break-out objectives

• Participants provide their view on the scenarios for the Dutch Chemical Industry and their impact

• Participants share and discuss their view with others

• Groups summarize views from everyone on the industry scenarios and their impact

• Identify shared conclusions and on element that should be included in vision for the Dutch Chemical
Industry


To capture everybody’s thinking, we propose to have the following structure
for our discussions

Break-out process
Scenarios Discussion Topics

Fragmented Future
What will be the What determines the
impact of the success under the
scenarios on the different scenarios?
North- Western
European/NL Importance of Cluster
Green Revolution chemical industry?
Investment Climate
Knowledge & Elements
Innovation Environment, Health for the
and Safety Industry
Products & Vision
Applications Regulation
Electric Future
Feedstock & Talent
Assets
Image
Industry
Infrastructure ....
Technological Revolution

• Write your main conclusions on flipcharts

• Be prepared to give a ten minute summary to the plenary group


We would like to start today’s discussion in three smaller groups

Proposed composition of the break-out group

Group 1 – 3.02 Group 2 – 3.13 Group 3 – 3.14
• Fer Klinckhamers (Tronox • Hans Vreeswijk (Croda) • Don Huberts (Linde Gas)
Pigments)
• Joost Berting (Eastman) • Jaap Oldenziel (Air
• Jan Smook (MSD) Liquide)
• Marc van Doorn (OCI
• Jos van Damme (Yara Agro) • Joke Driessen (Shell)
Sluiskil)
• Peter Bertens (Nefarma) • Mark Vester (Sabic)
• Melt de Haas (ARKEMA)
• Wim Pielage (Elementis • Theo Olijve
• Rein Coster (VNCI) Specialties) (LyondellBasell)

• Thomas Deman • Vincent Oomes (Deloitte) • Paul Evers (BASF)
(ExxonMobil)
• Willem Vaessen (Deloitte)
• Peter Sanders (Deloitte)


Agenda

13:00 Introduction





15:30 Break


17:00 Adjourn


Feedback and discussion

• Discuss group outcomes
‒ 10 minutes presentation
‒ 20 minutes response and discussion

• Synthesise findings
‒ Elements for the vision
‒ Conclusions


Agenda

13:00 Introduction





15:30 Break


17:00 Adjourn


Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms,
each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms.

Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally
connected network of member firms in more than 140 countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and deep local expertise to help clients
succeed wherever they operate. Deloitte's approximately 169,000 professionals are committed to becoming the standard of excellence.

This publication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, Deloitte Global Services Limited, Deloitte
Global Services Holdings Limited, the Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Verein, any of their member firms, or any of the foregoing‟s affiliates (collectively
the “Deloitte Network”) are, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional
advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or
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sustained by any person who relies on this publication.


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