SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 12
Baixar para ler offline
PBT Consulting
        Strategic Marketing, Business Planning, Research, Venture Capital and Financing




      Home      Archives       Profile    Subscribe

                                                  « SOCIAL COMMERCE MAY BE ON THE MINDS OF RETAILERS, BUT BUYING
       ABOUT                                                                                                                                       MOST RECENT PHOTOS
                                                THROUGH FACEBOOK IS FAR FROM MAINSTREAM | Main | FOURSQUARE'S CEO
                                                HYPES HIS LBS SITE, REVEALS GROWTH ISSUES, AND WHAT HE WANTS FROM
                                                                        BRAND PARTNERSHIPS »
                                               07/10/2011

                                               THE ROOT CAUSES BEHIND TODAY'S HIGH
                                               UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION, AND WHY THIS
                                               MAY NOT CHANGE ANYTIME SOON




       MY OTHER ONLINE SITES

          LinkedIn: turk5555
          MySpace: tooshyniceguy
           Other...:
       http://www.pointblankbusinesstechnology.com/BusinessPlanInquiry.htm
          Twitter: turk5555
          YouTube: cabrone5555



       RECENT POSTS                            Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Jobs Created
       GOOGLE VENTURES                         One July 8, 2011, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Employment Situation
       INCREASES ITS FUND BY AS                Report - June 2011, and reported that the US Unemployment Rate increased from 9.1%
       MUCH AS $200 MILLION A YEAR             to 9.2% between May and June 2011. The June Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) payroll
       AND ADDS ‘GOOGLERS IN
                                               employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000).  The second half of this year is 
       RESIDENCE’ 
                                               likely to show only marginal growth. The numbers were bad, but they could've been much 
       Q2 2011 VC FIRM FUNDRAISING             worse.  I am no economist, but the report is more clear evidence that the economy is 
       UP 29%, THE NUMBER OF                   slowind down.  
       FUNDS THAT RAISED MONEY
       DOWN 23%, VC INDUSTRY
       UNDERGOES CONSOLIDATION
       HOW MIT'S SENSEABLE CITY
       LAB REVEALS UNIQUE TIES
       BETWEEN STATES BY THEIR
       CELLPHONE USAGE
       THE INCREDIBLE TERRAFUGIA
       TRANSITION FLYING CAR
       APPROVED FOR ROAD USE BY
       THE NHTSA
       Satellite control of company and
       DOLLAR STORE REVENUE
       GROWTH SLOWS, PRICE OF
       GAS BLAMED, BUT                                                         Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics
       CONSUMERS ARE STILL
       FRUGAL                                  What most American's don't understand is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures
                                               the unemployment rate six different ways (U-1 through U-6).  The unemployment rate that 
       FOURSQUARE'S CEO HYPES HIS
       LBS SITE, REVEALS GROWTH                is reported in the news is U-3 (total unemployed or regular unemployment rate).  However, 
       ISSUES, AND WHAT HE WANTS               U-3 is just the tip of the iceberg.  U-3 DOES NOT present the true unemployment rate
       FROM BRAND PARTNERSHIPS                 because it does not include the following categories of workers:  
       THE ROOT CAUSES BEHIND                         l   Discouraged workers - Persons not in the labor force who want and are available 
       TODAY'S HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
                                                          for a job and who have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since
       SITUATION, AND WHY THIS
       MAY NOT CHANGE ANYTIME
                                                          the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but who are not
       SOON                                               currently looking because they believe there are no jobs available or there are none
                                                          for which they would qualify.
       SOCIAL COMMERCE MAY BE ON
                                                      l   Marginally attached workers - Persons not in the labor force who want and are 
       THE MINDS OF RETAILERS, BUT
       BUYING THROUGH FACEBOOK                            available for work, and who have looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months
       IS FAR FROM MAINSTREAM                             (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but
                                                          were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4
       FEDERAL REGULATORS
       STRUGGLE TO COLLECT FINES
                                                          weeks preceding the survey. Discouraged workers are a subset of the marginally
       AND PENALTIES RESULTING                            attached.
       FROM THE FINANCIAL                             l   Employed part-time for economic reasons - Persons who work less than 35
       MELTDOWN OF 2008                                   hours per week. 

                                               When you include the above three classes of workers into the regular unemployment rate



http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html                                                                Page 1 / 12
(U-3), the result is U-6 (Total unemployed, polus all marginally attached workers, plus
       RECENT COMMENTS
                                           total employed part-time for economic reasons).  At the end of June 2011, U-6 was
       Double Glazing on RUMOR: THE        nearly 17.5%. This is nearly twice the regular unemployment rate of 9.2% reported
       APPLE IPAD 2 IS COMING TO           by the BLS at the end of June 2011.   
       TOYS "R" US, THAT'S GREAT,
       BUT WILL CHILDREN REALLY
       LEARN?
       buy twitter followers on
       EMARKETER SAYS FACEBOOK
       NOW ACCOUNTS FOR MORE
       THAN 25% OF U.S. ONLINE
       DISPLAY ADS
       buy twitter followers on IMBEE,
       A SOCIAL NETWORKING SITE
       FOR TWEENS, RELAUNCHES
       WITH A LOT OF FANFARE AND
       TIGHTER CHILDREN'S SECURITY
       web hosting on HOW SONAR IS
       TRYING TO CONNECT MULTIPLE
       USERS FROM MULTIPLE SOCIAL
       NETWORKS, CAN THEY GET IT
       TO WORK?
       web hosting on FORRESTER                                       Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics
       AND SHARETHIS SAY SAME
       THING: GO SOCIAL AND MOBILE         Not only has the unemployment rate remained high for a long period of time,
       TO INCREASE ENGAGEMENT              but the average duration of unemployment is skyrocketing without any hint of 
       AND TRAFFIC TO YOUR
                                           slowing down.  This truly scary chart shows this quite clearly.
       WEBSITE
       Website Design Company on
       AVOID THE TOP 10 INTERNET
       MARKETING MISTAKES BY
       SOFTWARE COMPANIES
       Jamie Shellman on FIVE KEY
       BUSINESS FINANCE TRENDS
       FOR 2010, STARTUP CAPITAL
       WILL BE TIGHT
       fruit machine games on
       ATLANTIC CITY'S TROPICANA
       CASINO AND RESORT LOSES
       $11 MILLION TWO GAMBLER'S
       IN A MATTER OF TWO MONTHS
       Dante Mallet on TESLA MOTORS'
       ENDS PRODUCTION OF ITS
       ROADSTER ELECTRIC
       SPORTSCAR, BUT TESLA NOT
       DONE WITH ELECTRIC
       SUPERCARS
       Robert on NOKIA'S NEW N9
       SMARTPHONE OFFERS A COOL
       MODERN DESIGN, LARGE                                           Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics
       SCREEN, SLICK MEEGO OS AND
       A UNIQUE GUI WITH THREE             The problem has become so acute, that the Obama Administration has had to extend
       VIEWS                               unemployment benefits from 26 weeks to 52 weeks and now 99 weeks, coining the term
                                           "Ninety-Niner's" for those individuals out of work two years.  
                                           According to the BLS, there are now 6.289 million workers (see graph below) who
       ARCHIVES
                                           have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was up from
       July 2011                           6.2 million in May.  This is very high, and long term unemployment is one of the defining 
                                           features of this recession. 
       June 2011
       May 2011
       April 2011
       March 2011
       February 2011
       January 2011
       December 2010
       November 2010
       October 2010

                                 More...



       CATEGORIES

       Advertising
       Aeronautics and Space
       Agriculture
       Apparel and Accessories
       Archaeology
       Architecture and Construction
       Armaments and Weapons                                          Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics
       Art and Design
                                           Percentage of Jobs Lost During The Great Recession
       Automobiles and Transportation
                                           After the miserable Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report - June
       Baby Products
                                           2011 (see above), the pace of the recovery is really starting to look dimmer.  



http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html                                Page 2 / 12
Beauty and Hair
                                           If you are like me, you are probably asking yourself a series of questions:
       Bicycles
       Bioscience                               "Why does the regular unemployment rate remain so high?"
       Blogs                                    "Why do unemployed workers remain out-of-work so long?"
       Boats and Yachts
                                                "Where did the jobs go?"
       Books
                                                 "Is there any hope for the future?"
       Branding
       Celebrities and Personalities       In order to answer the above questions, it is important to understand the emensity of the
                                           job situation. The chart that follows shows the job losses from the start of the Great
       Censorship
                                           Recession of 2007, in percentage terms - this time aligned at the start of the recession.  
       Childrens Social Development        In terms of lost payroll jobs, the Great Recession is by far the worst since WWII.  As 
       Computer Viruses and Cyber          a percentage of the US work force, we have lost 6.6% of the total jobs.  Making 
       Attacks                             things worse was the effect of the financial meltdown of September 2008 on
       Computers and Accessories
                                           business owners who reacted to the fear and uncertainty by laying off employees in
                                           extraordinary numbers, far greater than in past recessions.   Job losses were so deep 
       Consumer Electronics and            during the Great Recession that it's no wonder the unemployment remains high.
       Accessories
       Consumer Packaged Goods
       Consumers
       Counterfeiting
       Crime
       crowdfunding and
       crowdsourcing
       Current Affairs
       Demographics and Lifestyle
       Segmentation
       Dictators and Rulers
       Digital and Video Content Sharing
       Diseases and Infections
       Earth and Environment
       eCommerce
       Economy
       Economy and Employment
       Education and Information
       Email
       Employment
       Energy and Green Technology
       Engineering                                                       Source:  calculatedriskblog.com

       Entertainment                       The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 or Stimulus Plan which was
       Espionage                           enacted in early January 2009, poured $787 billion in to the economy and lifted
                                           employment by roughly 2.5 million jobs, outside analyses have found, but that has not
       Fashion and Style
                                           been enough to reduce the unemployment rate substantially. Nor are there signs that
       Film                                business investment or consumer demand will do so soon.
       Finance
                                           Where Did All The Jobs Go?
       Firearms and Armaments
                                           This is a question that has haunted many economists.  There is no single reason, but it 
       Food and Drink
                                           appears that job losses began to accelerate after the year 2000.   Several reasons for the 
       Food and Nutrition                  incredible loss in jobs have been given, including job destruction forces from
       Foodservice                         computerization (faster computers, the internet, software productivity tools and
       Foreign Cultures
                                           applications) and globalization (outsourcing jobs, especially NAFTA).

       Franchising                         Outsourcing of jobs to foreign countries is one of the great hidden economic issues
       Funerals, Burials and Gaskets
                                           of recent years. It is big business, with multinational corporations actively shifting jobs out 
                                           of the United States and around the globe in search of the cheapest possible labor.  But, 
       Furniture                           following popular outcry against the practice in 2004, corporations have done their best to 
       Gambling                            hide the details even as they expand their offshoring activities. As a result, outsourcing 
       Games                               has by and large fallen out of the headlines.

       Geography                           According to a study titled, "Sending Jobs Overseas: The Cost to America’s Economy 
       Government and Regulatory           and Working Families", was co-produced by the AFL-CIO and Working America to
                                           determine the economic impact of outsourcing jobs.  Some of the findings of the study 
       Health and Medical
                                           were as follows:  
       History
                                               l   Collapse of Manufacturing Jobs - US manufacturing jobs dropped high of 19.5
       Hospitality
                                                   million workers in June 1979 to 11.5 workers in December 2009, a drop of 8 million 
       Household Consumer Items                    workers over 30 years. Between August 2000 and February 2004, manufacturing 
       Information Technology                      jobs were lost for a stunning 43 consecutive months—the longest such stretch
                                                   since the Great Depression. During the Great Recession, which began December
       Insurance
                                                   2007 and ended November 2010, an estimated 2.5 million manufacturing jobs were
       International                               lost.  According to the Alliance for American Manufacturing (AAM, the US lost
       Internet                                    5.5 million jobs and at least $245 billion in manufacturing wages since the start of
                                                   2000.
       Inventions
       IPO's and Investments
       Jewelry, Watches and
       Accessories
       Legal
       Luxury Goods
       Magazines, Newspaper and


http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html                                      Page 3 / 12
Publications
       Mail and Freight Shipping
       Management and Human
       Resources
       Manufacturing and Prototypes
       Marine and Aquatic Mammals
       and Fish
       Market Intelligence and Data
       Analytics
       Marketing
       Mental Health and Psychology
       Mergers and Acquisitions
       Military and Wars
       Mining, Metals and Minerals
       Mobile
       Motorcycles and Scooters
       Music
       Natural Catastrophe's and
       Events
       Natural Resources
       News and Information
       Nuclear Energy and Radiation
       Oil
       Online Dating and Relationships
       Outdoor Products
       Parenting
       Pet Products and Accessories
       Pet Products and Health Care
       Pharmaceuticals
       Philanthropy, Foundations and
       Charities
                                                    
                                             l   Destruction of Manufacturing Sector - The number of manufacturing firms has
       Photography                               declined sharply since 1999, after growing steadily earlier in the decade. The total 
       Physics                                   number of manufacturing establishments of all sizes grew by nearly 26,000 
       Politics                                  between 1990 and 1998 but shrank by more than 51,000 (12.5 percent) between 
                                                 1998 and 2008. An additional 5,730 establishments disappeared in 2009, bringing 
       Product Design and Development
                                                 the total net decline to more than 57,000 since 1998.
       Public Relations                      l   Jobs Outsourced Overseas Skyrocket - Since 2000, the United States has lost
       Radio Frequency Identification            more than 5 million manufacturing jobs and 850,000 information sector jobs, many
       RFID                                      of which have been shipped overseas. Faulty trade and tax policies continue to
                                                 lead to outsourcing as corporate executives boast record-breaking profits and
       Real Estate
                                                 salaries.
       Relationships and Marriage            l   Job Outsourcing Is Big Business - Plunkett’s Outsourcing & Offshoring
       Religion                                  Industry Almanac 2010, estimates that job outsourcing was a $500 billion global 
       Restaurants
                                                 industry in 2009 that involved more than 350 prominent organizations operating in 
                                                 61 distinct industry groups.
       Retailing                             l   Corporate Profits Soar - While 26.1 million Americans were unemployed, 
       Robotics                                  underemployed, marginally attached to the labor market or involuntarily working at 
       Science                                   part-time jobs as of Labor Day 2010, according to the Economic Policy Institute, 
                                                 corporate profits increased (at an annualized rate) to $1.64 trillion dollars during the 
       Search Engines
                                                 second quarter of 2010.
       Security Systems and Devices
                                         The study determined that since 2000 the US has lost more than 5 million manufacturing 
       Sex and Mature Content
                                         jobs and 850,000 information sector jobs, many of which have been shipped overseas.
       Social Causes                     Faulty trade and tax policies continue to lead to outsourcing as corporate executives
       Social Networks                   boast record-breaking profits and salaries.
       Software                          Manufacturing isn't the only sector hurt by outsourcing.  A 2002 study conducted by 
       Sports                            the Forrester Research concluded that 3.3 million white-collar U.S. jobs—including
                                         500,000 information technology jobs—will shift offshore to countries by 2015 at a cost of 
       Stock Prices
                                         over $136 billion in wages.
       Technology
                                         There are several arguments for and against the outsourcing of American jobs.
       Telecommunications
                                          Corporations claim this is the only way they can compete in the global economy.  Labor 
       Television                        and environmental experts say American manufacturer's go overseas because foreign
       Textiles                          countries have less restrictive employment and environmental laws and regulations. 
       Toys
       Transportation
       Travel
       UFO's and Extra-Terrestrial
       Beings
       Utilities
       Venture Capital and
       Entrepreneuring
       Videoconferencing and
       Telepresence
       Water
       Wealth



http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html                                     Page 4 / 12
Weather
       Web/Tech
       Weblogs
       World Affairs
       World Records



       Add me to your TypePad People
       list                                                                                                                       

                                       By the way, Working America's Job Tracker tracks the hiring, layoffs and outsourcing
                                       activities of over 400,000 American companies.  You can access the Job Tracker HERE.
       Subscribe to this blog's feed
                                       However, this is not the complete answer to this job loss puzzle.

          Blog powered by TypePad      According to Barry Lynn and Phillip Longman, two research writers for the Washington
                                       Monthly, blame jobs losses not on job destruction forces, but a lack of job creation. And
          Blog powered by TypePad      the engine of job creation is small businesses.  
            Member since 09/2010
                                       Msrrs Lynn and Longman, propose a third job destruction force: CONSOLIDATION.
                                        Starting in the early 80s, the Reagan administration began deregulating many industries 
                                       and decided to quit enforcing antitrust laws.  Big companies began merging in earnest, 
                                       and by the early 2000's it was common for three or four firms to control upwards of half or
                                       more of entire sectors.  It happened in banking, retail, transportation, pharmaceuticals, 
                                       medical and health, broadcasting and automobile industries, accounting, and advertising,
                                       just to name a few. And not only do big firms innovate less than small firms, they also
                                       prevent innovative small firms from ever getting a chance to grow in the first place by hiring
                                       the smartest and the brightest, controlling channels of distribution, generating economies
                                       of scale, litigation to prevent small company innovation, and exercising monopoly power.   

                                       The job growth of the 80s and 90s, Lynn and Longman suggest, was largely powered by
                                       companies that were founded in the 70s — companies like Apple, Microsoft, Oracle, and
                                       Genentech. By the time the 2000's rolled around, consolidation was largely complete and
                                       the pipeline of small, innovative companies was drier than it had been in decades.  The 
                                       following chart shows just how rapidly we began to lose jobs during the 2000's.




                                       To see just how widespread the job losses have been across the country, Tip Strategies,
                                       Inc, an economic development consulting firm in Austin, Texas, has designed an online
                                       animated map showing how jobs have come and gone, on a rolling 12-month from January
                                       2004 to July 2009.  If you thought the above graphs were scary, wait till you see this one. 




http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html                                Page 5 / 12
[Click The Map To View An Animated Map]
                                       The above map shows that JOBS GAINED rapidly turned into JOBS LOST beginning in
                                       the third quarter 2007, began to accelerate in 2008, and exploded after the Financial
                                       Meltdown of September 2009.  In mid-2005, Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans with a
                                       vengence and that part of the country was immediately hit with job losses.  Job losses 
                                       finally began to subside after Barack Obama came into office and enacted the Stimulus
                                       Bill in 2009.  During this tumultous period, the biggest job losses occurred in California, 
                                       Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Georgia, New York and Pennsylvannia. 

                                       Part-Time Workers For Economic Reasons 
                                       From the BLS report: 
                                               The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons
                                               (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially
                                               unchanged in June at 8.6 million. These individuals were working part time
                                               because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find
                                               a full-time job.

                                       The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for
                                       economic reasons) increased slightly to 8.552 million in June.

                                       These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that
                                       increased to 16.2% in June from 15.8% in May. This is the highest level this year (highest
                                       since December 2010).
                                       In a blog article dated April 8, 2011, I commented on the huge number of part-time
                                       workers (see graph below) which began trending upwards in January 2002, and
                                       really began to accelerate with the beginning of the Great Recession in December
                                       2007.  As of January 2011, the number of part-time workers is now over 9 million,
                                       continuing the trend that began in 2002.




                                                                   Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

                                       Recap of the NFP Data 
                                       Note that there is no category that was not under street expectations.  Things are much 
                                       worse in employment land than anyone thought.




                                                                   Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

                                       Labor Force Participation (LFP)
                                       The LFP  is now at levels not seen in a decade. The LFP rate is the percentage of
                                       working-age persons in an economy who:

                                           l   Are employed.
                                           l   Are unemployed but looking for a job.

                                       Typically "working-age persons" is defined as people between the ages of 16-64. People
                                       in those age groups who are not counted as participating in the labor force are typically
                                       students, homemakers, and persons under the age of 64 who are retired. In the United
                                       States the labor force participation rate is usually around 67-68%.



http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html                              Page 6 / 12
A look at the below chart confirms that as of Friday, July 8, 2011, the labor force
                                       participation hit a new record low of 64.1%.  The previous high LFP rate was 66.4% at 
                                       the end of December 2006.




                                                                   Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

                                       A LOOK AT WHAT'S INSTORE FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY
                                       The manufacturing sector has always been the engine for the U.S. economy, creating
                                       stable employment and good paying jobs so that America can maintain its high standard
                                       of living and maintain a strong middle class.  The loss of millions of jobs due to 
                                       computerization, outsourcing and industry consolidation, may have permanently damaged
                                       the structure of the U.S. economy, resulting in continuing high rates of unemployment,
                                       lower manufacturing activity, a stagnant and unstable economy unable to create sufficient
                                       jobs, and lower GDP growth rates.  Economists have already warned of the potential for a 
                                       "double dip" recession.  The fragile nature of the U.S. economy makes it especially 
                                       susceptible to inflation, high interest rates, bubbles (real estate, technology, etc.), wars,
                                       natural disasters and sovereign debt problems like those in Europe.  

                                       The following charts make these points abundantly clear.

                                       ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) 
                                       Unemployment rates remain high becase we have become a nation of consumers not
                                       makers of things.  The graph below charts the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM)
                                       Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which measures the economic activity in the U.S. 
                                       manufacturing sector. The graph also includes several regional PMI's for different regions
                                       of the U.S. 

                                       Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the 23rd consecutive
                                       month, with a PMI of 55.3%, and the overall economy grew grew for the 25th consecutive
                                       month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On
                                       Business®




                                                                Source:  Institute of Supply Management

                                       The best single gauge of manufacturing comes from the ISM.  The PMI rate on June 30, 
                                       2011 was 55.3%.  A fall below 50% (PMI at the end of July 2008), which occurred just 
                                       prior to the financial meltdown, would signal a contraction. Are we headed in that
                                       direction?  This chart suggests we might:


http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html                               Page 7 / 12
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
                                       On June 17, 2011, The Conference Board released its Leading Economic Index (LEI)
                                       (see below) for the United States, and the LEI increased to 114.7 (2004=100) in May
                                       2011, an increase of 0.4 percent, following no change in April (113.3), and a 1.4
                                       percent rise in March (113.1).  The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an 
                                       American economic leading indicator intended to forecast future economic activity.

                                       The LEI has been trending upwards for 26 straight months since the March 2009 when it
                                       was at 98, just three months before the Great Recession ended (June 2009 - See above
                                       GDP graph).  The US GDP managed to grow in Q3/2009 (+1.6% annualized), reversing a 
                                       trend that had been in place since the start of the "Great Recession" (December 2007).
                                       Things started to accelerate in future quarters - Q4/2009 saw the economy grow at a 5%
                                       pace (annualized), while Q1/2010 clocked in at 3.7%. It seemed, for a time, that the
                                       economy was on the mend. 
                                       Since the first quarter of 2010, the wheels have come off and the US economy is
                                       seemingly running in place.   

                                       Bart van Ark, chief economist of The Conference Board said.

                                            “The index points to continued, though slower, U.S. growth for the rest of this
                                            year.  The LEI for the United States has been rising since April 2009, and 
                                            though its growth rate has slowed in 2010, it is well above its most recent peak
                                            in December 2006.” 




                                                                    Source: The Conference Board




http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html                        Page 8 / 12
Source: The Conference Board

                                       Note:  The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®  for the U.S. include:
                                       1) Average weekly hours, manufacturing, 2) Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, 
                                       3) Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials, 4) Index of supplier deliveries – vendor
                                       performance, 5) Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods, 6) Building permits, new private 
                                       housing units, 7) Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 8) Money supply (M2), 9) Interest rate spread, 10-
                                       year Treasury bonds less federal funds, and 10) Index of consumer expectations

                                       The Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
                                       The United States economy grew for the 7th straight quarter, although the rate of growth
                                       was disappointing. 
                                       The United States economy grew up 2.9 percent in 2010. Real GDP in the U.S.
                                       increased due to positive contributions from inventories, exports, consumer spending,
                                       business investment, and federal government spending. The overall contributions from
                                       these areas was offset by an increase in imports.

                                       The economy grew by 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, compared to a 3.1% growth
                                       the previous quarter, the United States Department of Commerce reported.  The 
                                       slowdown in the growth of real GDP in the first quarter of 2011 showed that the
                                       economy is not gaining momentum, dampening prospects for a meaningful
                                       reduction in unemployment in the near future.




                                       The Housing Crisis and Construction Industry
                                       The US is one of the few western industrialized nations where the dream of home
                                       ownership has become a reality for many Americans.  The era of cheap money (2003 
                                       through 2005), low or no down payment mortgages, real estate speculation, and reckless
                                       lending practices of banks and mortgage companies, resulted in highly inflated real estate
                                       prices.  A real estate bubble was eminent and it hit with a vengence beginning in 2006.  




                                       The resulting collapse of the US housing industry has resulted in levels of bank
                                       foreclosures that are unprecedented since the Great Depression.  The result was a 
                                       catastrophic decline in real estate prices and massive buildup of unsold properties and


http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html                                        Page 9 / 12
bank REO's (properties held by banks).  In a blog article dated December 10, 2010, at
                                       the end of August 2010, the inventory of visible and "shadow inventory" (see blog
                                       article for explanation) of unsold homes totaled 6.1 million units--a two year supply.
                                        




                                       According to First American CoreLogic, at the end of September 2009, the 
                                       proportion of U.S. homeowners who owed more on their mortgages than the
                                       properties were worth swelled to about 23% or 10.9 million homes (click to view 
                                       interactive map by state).  Not much has changed since that time. At the end of 
                                       December 2010, there were 11.1 million mortgage properties underwater. At the end
                                       of March 2011 the number declined to 10.9 million. 
                                       Since January 2009, new housing starts are stuck at an all-time low of about 500,000
                                       annualized units, compared to 2.250 million units in January 2006.  At the end of May 
                                       2011, new housing starts remain stuck at 500,00 annualized units, and there is no relief in
                                       sight.




                                       By every real estate construction and construction employment economic
                                       measurement used to determine the condition of real estate construction and 
                                       employment, the only bit of good news are interest rates, which for a 30-year fixed
                                       mortgage have remained under 5.50% over the last two years.  The interest rate for a 30-
                                       year fixed mortgage in California as of today is 4.75%.

                                       The collapse of the US housing industry has devastated the construction industry
                                       employment. The unemployment rate for experienced workers in construction was 
                                       24.7 percent in January 2010.  Total construction payroll employment has dropped 
                                       by 2.1 million jobs since 2006, with residential construction down by 1.3 million, or
                                       38 percent.  The following charts put things into perspective:




http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html                             Page 10 / 12
Conclusion
                                       If you are unemployed, I know this has been painful to read, as it was painful for me to
                                       research and write.  If you are lucky to be employed, this material should give you a lot to 
                                       think about.  65% of American's live paycheck-to-paycheck.  Having said this, it is my 
                                       honest opinion that today's unemployment situation is structural in nature due to the three
                                       job destruction forces mentioned previously, a shift from full-time to part-time workers, a
                                       lack of sufficient job creation businesses, and practice of employer's not to hire workers's
                                       over 50 years of age, and high unemployment among minorities and college graduates.
                                        The new Digital Economy has also played a key role in the shift from blue collar to white 
                                       collar jobs.

                                       Political infighting, the federal deficit, federal debt ceiling and state budget deficits have
                                       compounded the unemployment problem, resulting in additional layoffs among government
                                       sector workers. Solving the job problem is not going to be an easy task.  Jobs outsourced 
                                       to other countries are not coming back and corporations are content to operate with less
                                       employees while relying on part-time workers and temporary workers, instead of hiring
                                       new full-time workers.    

                                        Courtesy of an article dated July 8, 2011 appearing in Business Insider, an article dated
                                         July 8, 2011 appearing in Business Insider, an article dated July 9, 2011 appearing in
                                          Business Insider, an article dated February 23, 2010 appearing in Mother Jones, an
                                         article dated October 23, 2009 appearing in WallepPop, an article dated July 8, 2011
                                       appearing in Calculated Risk, and an article dated May 12, 2009 appearing in Spring Life,
                                       an article dated January 20, 2011 appearing in The Market Oracle, and an announcement
                                        dated June 9, 2009 by Plunkett Research, the Alliance for American Manufacturing
                                                                   and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

                                       Posted at 03:32 PM in Current Affairs, Economy, Economy and Employment, Politics, Real Estate | Permalink
                                       Technorati Tags: bureau of labor statistics, construction industry, economy, employment, housing industry,
                                       U.S. economy, unemployment, unemployment rate
                                           Favorite          Reblog (0)




                                       Comments
                                         You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.



                                       Post a comment

                                       Name:




http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html                                            Page 11 / 12
Email address:


                                       URL:



                                       Comment:
                                                                                              5



                                                                                              6
                                         Submit

        PBT Consulting    Powered by TypePad




http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html   Page 12 / 12

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Semelhante a The Root Causes Behind Todays High Unemployment Situation, And Why This May Not Change Anytime Soon

Unempolyment in india
Unempolyment in indiaUnempolyment in india
Unempolyment in indiaPriya Gupta
 
Module 3 Lecture (Ch. 15) Jobs & UnemploymentWHAT IS ‘UNEMPLOYM.docx
Module 3 Lecture (Ch. 15) Jobs & UnemploymentWHAT IS ‘UNEMPLOYM.docxModule 3 Lecture (Ch. 15) Jobs & UnemploymentWHAT IS ‘UNEMPLOYM.docx
Module 3 Lecture (Ch. 15) Jobs & UnemploymentWHAT IS ‘UNEMPLOYM.docxkendalfarrier
 
Moonlighting as ‘Coping Strategy’ for Irregular Payment of Salaries in Nigeri...
Moonlighting as ‘Coping Strategy’ for Irregular Payment of Salaries in Nigeri...Moonlighting as ‘Coping Strategy’ for Irregular Payment of Salaries in Nigeri...
Moonlighting as ‘Coping Strategy’ for Irregular Payment of Salaries in Nigeri...AJSSMTJournal
 
Bersin HR Predictions 2022
Bersin HR Predictions 2022Bersin HR Predictions 2022
Bersin HR Predictions 2022ssuser01a0ad1
 
Government Policies - Labour Market - Canada
Government Policies - Labour Market - CanadaGovernment Policies - Labour Market - Canada
Government Policies - Labour Market - Canadapaul young cpa, cga
 
NEPC Topic Talks: Understanding a K-Shaped Economy
NEPC Topic Talks: Understanding a K-Shaped EconomyNEPC Topic Talks: Understanding a K-Shaped Economy
NEPC Topic Talks: Understanding a K-Shaped EconomyNEPC, LLC
 
First Friday November 2011
First Friday November 2011First Friday November 2011
First Friday November 2011JCianciolo
 
This Week in HR People Management (to 20 May)
This Week in HR People Management (to 20 May)This Week in HR People Management (to 20 May)
This Week in HR People Management (to 20 May)People Management
 
"Information Literacy Skills and Your Success in the Current Troubled Economy...
"Information Literacy Skills and Your Success in the Current Troubled Economy..."Information Literacy Skills and Your Success in the Current Troubled Economy...
"Information Literacy Skills and Your Success in the Current Troubled Economy...Charlene Shotwell
 
First Friday112012 Joe J
First Friday112012 Joe JFirst Friday112012 Joe J
First Friday112012 Joe JJoe Jiamachello
 
Eric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement Strategies
Eric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement StrategiesEric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement Strategies
Eric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement StrategiesPearson North America
 
Policom: (Cities) Economic Strength Rankings
Policom: (Cities) Economic Strength RankingsPolicom: (Cities) Economic Strength Rankings
Policom: (Cities) Economic Strength RankingsBob Lowery
 
Hiring Trends and Jobs of the Future: A Recruiter's Perspective
Hiring Trends and Jobs of the Future:  A Recruiter's PerspectiveHiring Trends and Jobs of the Future:  A Recruiter's Perspective
Hiring Trends and Jobs of the Future: A Recruiter's PerspectiveLynn Hazan
 
Navigation Employment Trends: A Monster Intelligence briefing
Navigation Employment Trends: A Monster Intelligence briefingNavigation Employment Trends: A Monster Intelligence briefing
Navigation Employment Trends: A Monster Intelligence briefingMonster
 
Empowering work - the changing nature of jobs
Empowering work - the changing nature of jobsEmpowering work - the changing nature of jobs
Empowering work - the changing nature of jobsAngus Nelson
 
Minneapolis–St. Employment Update | December 2015
Minneapolis–St. Employment Update | December 2015Minneapolis–St. Employment Update | December 2015
Minneapolis–St. Employment Update | December 2015Carolyn Bates
 
First friday july 2013
First friday july 2013First friday july 2013
First friday july 2013JCianciolo
 

Semelhante a The Root Causes Behind Todays High Unemployment Situation, And Why This May Not Change Anytime Soon (20)

Unempolyment in india
Unempolyment in indiaUnempolyment in india
Unempolyment in india
 
Module 3 Lecture (Ch. 15) Jobs & UnemploymentWHAT IS ‘UNEMPLOYM.docx
Module 3 Lecture (Ch. 15) Jobs & UnemploymentWHAT IS ‘UNEMPLOYM.docxModule 3 Lecture (Ch. 15) Jobs & UnemploymentWHAT IS ‘UNEMPLOYM.docx
Module 3 Lecture (Ch. 15) Jobs & UnemploymentWHAT IS ‘UNEMPLOYM.docx
 
It’s the economy stupid
It’s the economy stupidIt’s the economy stupid
It’s the economy stupid
 
Moonlighting as ‘Coping Strategy’ for Irregular Payment of Salaries in Nigeri...
Moonlighting as ‘Coping Strategy’ for Irregular Payment of Salaries in Nigeri...Moonlighting as ‘Coping Strategy’ for Irregular Payment of Salaries in Nigeri...
Moonlighting as ‘Coping Strategy’ for Irregular Payment of Salaries in Nigeri...
 
Bersin HR Predictions 2022
Bersin HR Predictions 2022Bersin HR Predictions 2022
Bersin HR Predictions 2022
 
Government Policies - Labour Market - Canada
Government Policies - Labour Market - CanadaGovernment Policies - Labour Market - Canada
Government Policies - Labour Market - Canada
 
National Solar Jobs Census 2010
National Solar Jobs Census 2010National Solar Jobs Census 2010
National Solar Jobs Census 2010
 
NEPC Topic Talks: Understanding a K-Shaped Economy
NEPC Topic Talks: Understanding a K-Shaped EconomyNEPC Topic Talks: Understanding a K-Shaped Economy
NEPC Topic Talks: Understanding a K-Shaped Economy
 
First Friday November 2011
First Friday November 2011First Friday November 2011
First Friday November 2011
 
This Week in HR People Management (to 20 May)
This Week in HR People Management (to 20 May)This Week in HR People Management (to 20 May)
This Week in HR People Management (to 20 May)
 
"Information Literacy Skills and Your Success in the Current Troubled Economy...
"Information Literacy Skills and Your Success in the Current Troubled Economy..."Information Literacy Skills and Your Success in the Current Troubled Economy...
"Information Literacy Skills and Your Success in the Current Troubled Economy...
 
First Friday112012 Joe J
First Friday112012 Joe JFirst Friday112012 Joe J
First Friday112012 Joe J
 
Eric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement Strategies
Eric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement StrategiesEric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement Strategies
Eric Winegardner: Recruiting & Placement Strategies
 
Policom: (Cities) Economic Strength Rankings
Policom: (Cities) Economic Strength RankingsPolicom: (Cities) Economic Strength Rankings
Policom: (Cities) Economic Strength Rankings
 
Hiring Trends and Jobs of the Future: A Recruiter's Perspective
Hiring Trends and Jobs of the Future:  A Recruiter's PerspectiveHiring Trends and Jobs of the Future:  A Recruiter's Perspective
Hiring Trends and Jobs of the Future: A Recruiter's Perspective
 
Navigation Employment Trends: A Monster Intelligence briefing
Navigation Employment Trends: A Monster Intelligence briefingNavigation Employment Trends: A Monster Intelligence briefing
Navigation Employment Trends: A Monster Intelligence briefing
 
Empowering work - the changing nature of jobs
Empowering work - the changing nature of jobsEmpowering work - the changing nature of jobs
Empowering work - the changing nature of jobs
 
Minneapolis–St. Employment Update | December 2015
Minneapolis–St. Employment Update | December 2015Minneapolis–St. Employment Update | December 2015
Minneapolis–St. Employment Update | December 2015
 
First friday july 2013
First friday july 2013First friday july 2013
First friday july 2013
 
Networks and Work in Society30
Networks and Work in Society30Networks and Work in Society30
Networks and Work in Society30
 

Mais de Tommy Toy

Corona Virus - FDA News Release of Feb 4, 2020
Corona Virus - FDA News Release of Feb 4, 2020Corona Virus - FDA News Release of Feb 4, 2020
Corona Virus - FDA News Release of Feb 4, 2020Tommy Toy
 
Snap Q1 2017 earnings report
Snap Q1 2017 earnings reportSnap Q1 2017 earnings report
Snap Q1 2017 earnings reportTommy Toy
 
Data Science And Analytics Outsourcing – Vendors, Models, Steps by Ravi Kalak...
Data Science And Analytics Outsourcing – Vendors, Models, Steps by Ravi Kalak...Data Science And Analytics Outsourcing – Vendors, Models, Steps by Ravi Kalak...
Data Science And Analytics Outsourcing – Vendors, Models, Steps by Ravi Kalak...Tommy Toy
 
Facebook Q3 2015 Earnings Call With Analysts Transcript of November 4, 2015
Facebook Q3 2015 Earnings Call With Analysts Transcript of November 4, 2015Facebook Q3 2015 Earnings Call With Analysts Transcript of November 4, 2015
Facebook Q3 2015 Earnings Call With Analysts Transcript of November 4, 2015Tommy Toy
 
Facebook Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call Investor Slideshow
Facebook Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call Investor SlideshowFacebook Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call Investor Slideshow
Facebook Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call Investor SlideshowTommy Toy
 
Facebook q2 2013 earnings conference call of july 24, 2013
Facebook q2 2013 earnings conference call of july 24, 2013Facebook q2 2013 earnings conference call of july 24, 2013
Facebook q2 2013 earnings conference call of july 24, 2013Tommy Toy
 
State of the market location-based power mobile advertising report for 2012...
State of the market   location-based power mobile advertising report for 2012...State of the market   location-based power mobile advertising report for 2012...
State of the market location-based power mobile advertising report for 2012...Tommy Toy
 
Facebook q4 2012 earnings call
Facebook q4 2012 earnings callFacebook q4 2012 earnings call
Facebook q4 2012 earnings callTommy Toy
 
Apple inc (nasdaq.appl) earnings call report - fiscal 1st quarter ending de...
Apple inc (nasdaq.appl)   earnings call report - fiscal 1st quarter ending de...Apple inc (nasdaq.appl)   earnings call report - fiscal 1st quarter ending de...
Apple inc (nasdaq.appl) earnings call report - fiscal 1st quarter ending de...Tommy Toy
 
Quantum Stealth; The Invisible Military Becomes A Reality By Guy Cramer, Pre...
Quantum Stealth; The Invisible Military Becomes A Reality  By Guy Cramer, Pre...Quantum Stealth; The Invisible Military Becomes A Reality  By Guy Cramer, Pre...
Quantum Stealth; The Invisible Military Becomes A Reality By Guy Cramer, Pre...Tommy Toy
 
Scarborough Millennials Infographic
Scarborough Millennials InfographicScarborough Millennials Infographic
Scarborough Millennials InfographicTommy Toy
 
State of the Media: The Social Media Report 2012 - Nielsen
State of the Media: The Social Media Report 2012 - NielsenState of the Media: The Social Media Report 2012 - Nielsen
State of the Media: The Social Media Report 2012 - NielsenTommy Toy
 
IBM BLACK FRIDAY REPORT 2012
IBM BLACK FRIDAY REPORT 2012IBM BLACK FRIDAY REPORT 2012
IBM BLACK FRIDAY REPORT 2012Tommy Toy
 
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ.FB) Q3 2012 Earnings Call October 23, 2012
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ.FB) Q3 2012 Earnings Call October 23, 2012Facebook Inc (NASDAQ.FB) Q3 2012 Earnings Call October 23, 2012
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ.FB) Q3 2012 Earnings Call October 23, 2012Tommy Toy
 
Facebook Mobile App for iPhone, iPad and Android Phones
Facebook Mobile App for iPhone, iPad and Android PhonesFacebook Mobile App for iPhone, iPad and Android Phones
Facebook Mobile App for iPhone, iPad and Android PhonesTommy Toy
 
Apple Earnings Call for Q2 2012
Apple Earnings Call for Q2 2012Apple Earnings Call for Q2 2012
Apple Earnings Call for Q2 2012Tommy Toy
 
A Tour of Facebook's New Corporate HQ in Menlo Park, CA
A Tour of Facebook's New Corporate HQ in Menlo Park, CAA Tour of Facebook's New Corporate HQ in Menlo Park, CA
A Tour of Facebook's New Corporate HQ in Menlo Park, CATommy Toy
 
Facebook Readies IPO Filing - Facebook in Photos
Facebook Readies IPO Filing - Facebook in PhotosFacebook Readies IPO Filing - Facebook in Photos
Facebook Readies IPO Filing - Facebook in PhotosTommy Toy
 
Apple Production Supplier Report - 2012 Progress Report
Apple Production Supplier Report - 2012 Progress ReportApple Production Supplier Report - 2012 Progress Report
Apple Production Supplier Report - 2012 Progress ReportTommy Toy
 

Mais de Tommy Toy (20)

SEC Form C
SEC Form CSEC Form C
SEC Form C
 
Corona Virus - FDA News Release of Feb 4, 2020
Corona Virus - FDA News Release of Feb 4, 2020Corona Virus - FDA News Release of Feb 4, 2020
Corona Virus - FDA News Release of Feb 4, 2020
 
Snap Q1 2017 earnings report
Snap Q1 2017 earnings reportSnap Q1 2017 earnings report
Snap Q1 2017 earnings report
 
Data Science And Analytics Outsourcing – Vendors, Models, Steps by Ravi Kalak...
Data Science And Analytics Outsourcing – Vendors, Models, Steps by Ravi Kalak...Data Science And Analytics Outsourcing – Vendors, Models, Steps by Ravi Kalak...
Data Science And Analytics Outsourcing – Vendors, Models, Steps by Ravi Kalak...
 
Facebook Q3 2015 Earnings Call With Analysts Transcript of November 4, 2015
Facebook Q3 2015 Earnings Call With Analysts Transcript of November 4, 2015Facebook Q3 2015 Earnings Call With Analysts Transcript of November 4, 2015
Facebook Q3 2015 Earnings Call With Analysts Transcript of November 4, 2015
 
Facebook Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call Investor Slideshow
Facebook Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call Investor SlideshowFacebook Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call Investor Slideshow
Facebook Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call Investor Slideshow
 
Facebook q2 2013 earnings conference call of july 24, 2013
Facebook q2 2013 earnings conference call of july 24, 2013Facebook q2 2013 earnings conference call of july 24, 2013
Facebook q2 2013 earnings conference call of july 24, 2013
 
State of the market location-based power mobile advertising report for 2012...
State of the market   location-based power mobile advertising report for 2012...State of the market   location-based power mobile advertising report for 2012...
State of the market location-based power mobile advertising report for 2012...
 
Facebook q4 2012 earnings call
Facebook q4 2012 earnings callFacebook q4 2012 earnings call
Facebook q4 2012 earnings call
 
Apple inc (nasdaq.appl) earnings call report - fiscal 1st quarter ending de...
Apple inc (nasdaq.appl)   earnings call report - fiscal 1st quarter ending de...Apple inc (nasdaq.appl)   earnings call report - fiscal 1st quarter ending de...
Apple inc (nasdaq.appl) earnings call report - fiscal 1st quarter ending de...
 
Quantum Stealth; The Invisible Military Becomes A Reality By Guy Cramer, Pre...
Quantum Stealth; The Invisible Military Becomes A Reality  By Guy Cramer, Pre...Quantum Stealth; The Invisible Military Becomes A Reality  By Guy Cramer, Pre...
Quantum Stealth; The Invisible Military Becomes A Reality By Guy Cramer, Pre...
 
Scarborough Millennials Infographic
Scarborough Millennials InfographicScarborough Millennials Infographic
Scarborough Millennials Infographic
 
State of the Media: The Social Media Report 2012 - Nielsen
State of the Media: The Social Media Report 2012 - NielsenState of the Media: The Social Media Report 2012 - Nielsen
State of the Media: The Social Media Report 2012 - Nielsen
 
IBM BLACK FRIDAY REPORT 2012
IBM BLACK FRIDAY REPORT 2012IBM BLACK FRIDAY REPORT 2012
IBM BLACK FRIDAY REPORT 2012
 
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ.FB) Q3 2012 Earnings Call October 23, 2012
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ.FB) Q3 2012 Earnings Call October 23, 2012Facebook Inc (NASDAQ.FB) Q3 2012 Earnings Call October 23, 2012
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ.FB) Q3 2012 Earnings Call October 23, 2012
 
Facebook Mobile App for iPhone, iPad and Android Phones
Facebook Mobile App for iPhone, iPad and Android PhonesFacebook Mobile App for iPhone, iPad and Android Phones
Facebook Mobile App for iPhone, iPad and Android Phones
 
Apple Earnings Call for Q2 2012
Apple Earnings Call for Q2 2012Apple Earnings Call for Q2 2012
Apple Earnings Call for Q2 2012
 
A Tour of Facebook's New Corporate HQ in Menlo Park, CA
A Tour of Facebook's New Corporate HQ in Menlo Park, CAA Tour of Facebook's New Corporate HQ in Menlo Park, CA
A Tour of Facebook's New Corporate HQ in Menlo Park, CA
 
Facebook Readies IPO Filing - Facebook in Photos
Facebook Readies IPO Filing - Facebook in PhotosFacebook Readies IPO Filing - Facebook in Photos
Facebook Readies IPO Filing - Facebook in Photos
 
Apple Production Supplier Report - 2012 Progress Report
Apple Production Supplier Report - 2012 Progress ReportApple Production Supplier Report - 2012 Progress Report
Apple Production Supplier Report - 2012 Progress Report
 

Último

Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine KG and Vector search for enhanced R...
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine  KG and Vector search for  enhanced R...Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine  KG and Vector search for  enhanced R...
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine KG and Vector search for enhanced R...Neo4j
 
A Call to Action for Generative AI in 2024
A Call to Action for Generative AI in 2024A Call to Action for Generative AI in 2024
A Call to Action for Generative AI in 2024Results
 
GenCyber Cyber Security Day Presentation
GenCyber Cyber Security Day PresentationGenCyber Cyber Security Day Presentation
GenCyber Cyber Security Day PresentationMichael W. Hawkins
 
Kalyanpur ) Call Girls in Lucknow Finest Escorts Service 🍸 8923113531 🎰 Avail...
Kalyanpur ) Call Girls in Lucknow Finest Escorts Service 🍸 8923113531 🎰 Avail...Kalyanpur ) Call Girls in Lucknow Finest Escorts Service 🍸 8923113531 🎰 Avail...
Kalyanpur ) Call Girls in Lucknow Finest Escorts Service 🍸 8923113531 🎰 Avail...gurkirankumar98700
 
Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024The Digital Insurer
 
A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)
A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)
A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)Gabriella Davis
 
2024: Domino Containers - The Next Step. News from the Domino Container commu...
2024: Domino Containers - The Next Step. News from the Domino Container commu...2024: Domino Containers - The Next Step. News from the Domino Container commu...
2024: Domino Containers - The Next Step. News from the Domino Container commu...Martijn de Jong
 
Driving Behavioral Change for Information Management through Data-Driven Gree...
Driving Behavioral Change for Information Management through Data-Driven Gree...Driving Behavioral Change for Information Management through Data-Driven Gree...
Driving Behavioral Change for Information Management through Data-Driven Gree...Enterprise Knowledge
 
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdfhans926745
 
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking MenDelhi Call girls
 
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt RobisonData Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt RobisonAnna Loughnan Colquhoun
 
Salesforce Community Group Quito, Salesforce 101
Salesforce Community Group Quito, Salesforce 101Salesforce Community Group Quito, Salesforce 101
Salesforce Community Group Quito, Salesforce 101Paola De la Torre
 
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...Neo4j
 
Injustice - Developers Among Us (SciFiDevCon 2024)
Injustice - Developers Among Us (SciFiDevCon 2024)Injustice - Developers Among Us (SciFiDevCon 2024)
Injustice - Developers Among Us (SciFiDevCon 2024)Allon Mureinik
 
The Codex of Business Writing Software for Real-World Solutions 2.pptx
The Codex of Business Writing Software for Real-World Solutions 2.pptxThe Codex of Business Writing Software for Real-World Solutions 2.pptx
The Codex of Business Writing Software for Real-World Solutions 2.pptxMalak Abu Hammad
 
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptx
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptxEIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptx
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptxEarley Information Science
 
Finology Group – Insurtech Innovation Award 2024
Finology Group – Insurtech Innovation Award 2024Finology Group – Insurtech Innovation Award 2024
Finology Group – Insurtech Innovation Award 2024The Digital Insurer
 
From Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time Automation
From Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time AutomationFrom Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time Automation
From Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time AutomationSafe Software
 
Automating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps Script
Automating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps ScriptAutomating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps Script
Automating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps Scriptwesley chun
 
Boost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivity
Boost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivityBoost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivity
Boost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivityPrincipled Technologies
 

Último (20)

Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine KG and Vector search for enhanced R...
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine  KG and Vector search for  enhanced R...Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine  KG and Vector search for  enhanced R...
Workshop - Best of Both Worlds_ Combine KG and Vector search for enhanced R...
 
A Call to Action for Generative AI in 2024
A Call to Action for Generative AI in 2024A Call to Action for Generative AI in 2024
A Call to Action for Generative AI in 2024
 
GenCyber Cyber Security Day Presentation
GenCyber Cyber Security Day PresentationGenCyber Cyber Security Day Presentation
GenCyber Cyber Security Day Presentation
 
Kalyanpur ) Call Girls in Lucknow Finest Escorts Service 🍸 8923113531 🎰 Avail...
Kalyanpur ) Call Girls in Lucknow Finest Escorts Service 🍸 8923113531 🎰 Avail...Kalyanpur ) Call Girls in Lucknow Finest Escorts Service 🍸 8923113531 🎰 Avail...
Kalyanpur ) Call Girls in Lucknow Finest Escorts Service 🍸 8923113531 🎰 Avail...
 
Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Tata AIG General Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
 
A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)
A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)
A Domino Admins Adventures (Engage 2024)
 
2024: Domino Containers - The Next Step. News from the Domino Container commu...
2024: Domino Containers - The Next Step. News from the Domino Container commu...2024: Domino Containers - The Next Step. News from the Domino Container commu...
2024: Domino Containers - The Next Step. News from the Domino Container commu...
 
Driving Behavioral Change for Information Management through Data-Driven Gree...
Driving Behavioral Change for Information Management through Data-Driven Gree...Driving Behavioral Change for Information Management through Data-Driven Gree...
Driving Behavioral Change for Information Management through Data-Driven Gree...
 
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
[2024]Digital Global Overview Report 2024 Meltwater.pdf
 
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
08448380779 Call Girls In Friends Colony Women Seeking Men
 
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt RobisonData Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
Data Cloud, More than a CDP by Matt Robison
 
Salesforce Community Group Quito, Salesforce 101
Salesforce Community Group Quito, Salesforce 101Salesforce Community Group Quito, Salesforce 101
Salesforce Community Group Quito, Salesforce 101
 
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...
Neo4j - How KGs are shaping the future of Generative AI at AWS Summit London ...
 
Injustice - Developers Among Us (SciFiDevCon 2024)
Injustice - Developers Among Us (SciFiDevCon 2024)Injustice - Developers Among Us (SciFiDevCon 2024)
Injustice - Developers Among Us (SciFiDevCon 2024)
 
The Codex of Business Writing Software for Real-World Solutions 2.pptx
The Codex of Business Writing Software for Real-World Solutions 2.pptxThe Codex of Business Writing Software for Real-World Solutions 2.pptx
The Codex of Business Writing Software for Real-World Solutions 2.pptx
 
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptx
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptxEIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptx
EIS-Webinar-Prompt-Knowledge-Eng-2024-04-08.pptx
 
Finology Group – Insurtech Innovation Award 2024
Finology Group – Insurtech Innovation Award 2024Finology Group – Insurtech Innovation Award 2024
Finology Group – Insurtech Innovation Award 2024
 
From Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time Automation
From Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time AutomationFrom Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time Automation
From Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time Automation
 
Automating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps Script
Automating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps ScriptAutomating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps Script
Automating Google Workspace (GWS) & more with Apps Script
 
Boost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivity
Boost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivityBoost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivity
Boost PC performance: How more available memory can improve productivity
 

The Root Causes Behind Todays High Unemployment Situation, And Why This May Not Change Anytime Soon

  • 1. PBT Consulting Strategic Marketing, Business Planning, Research, Venture Capital and Financing Home Archives Profile Subscribe « SOCIAL COMMERCE MAY BE ON THE MINDS OF RETAILERS, BUT BUYING ABOUT MOST RECENT PHOTOS THROUGH FACEBOOK IS FAR FROM MAINSTREAM | Main | FOURSQUARE'S CEO HYPES HIS LBS SITE, REVEALS GROWTH ISSUES, AND WHAT HE WANTS FROM BRAND PARTNERSHIPS » 07/10/2011 THE ROOT CAUSES BEHIND TODAY'S HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION, AND WHY THIS MAY NOT CHANGE ANYTIME SOON MY OTHER ONLINE SITES LinkedIn: turk5555 MySpace: tooshyniceguy Other...: http://www.pointblankbusinesstechnology.com/BusinessPlanInquiry.htm Twitter: turk5555 YouTube: cabrone5555 RECENT POSTS Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Jobs Created GOOGLE VENTURES One July 8, 2011, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Employment Situation INCREASES ITS FUND BY AS Report - June 2011, and reported that the US Unemployment Rate increased from 9.1% MUCH AS $200 MILLION A YEAR to 9.2% between May and June 2011. The June Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) payroll AND ADDS ‘GOOGLERS IN employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000).  The second half of this year is  RESIDENCE’  likely to show only marginal growth. The numbers were bad, but they could've been much  Q2 2011 VC FIRM FUNDRAISING worse.  I am no economist, but the report is more clear evidence that the economy is  UP 29%, THE NUMBER OF slowind down.   FUNDS THAT RAISED MONEY DOWN 23%, VC INDUSTRY UNDERGOES CONSOLIDATION HOW MIT'S SENSEABLE CITY LAB REVEALS UNIQUE TIES BETWEEN STATES BY THEIR CELLPHONE USAGE THE INCREDIBLE TERRAFUGIA TRANSITION FLYING CAR APPROVED FOR ROAD USE BY THE NHTSA Satellite control of company and DOLLAR STORE REVENUE GROWTH SLOWS, PRICE OF GAS BLAMED, BUT Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics CONSUMERS ARE STILL FRUGAL What most American's don't understand is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures the unemployment rate six different ways (U-1 through U-6).  The unemployment rate that  FOURSQUARE'S CEO HYPES HIS LBS SITE, REVEALS GROWTH is reported in the news is U-3 (total unemployed or regular unemployment rate).  However,  ISSUES, AND WHAT HE WANTS U-3 is just the tip of the iceberg.  U-3 DOES NOT present the true unemployment rate FROM BRAND PARTNERSHIPS because it does not include the following categories of workers:   THE ROOT CAUSES BEHIND l Discouraged workers - Persons not in the labor force who want and are available  TODAY'S HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT for a job and who have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since SITUATION, AND WHY THIS MAY NOT CHANGE ANYTIME the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but who are not SOON currently looking because they believe there are no jobs available or there are none for which they would qualify. SOCIAL COMMERCE MAY BE ON l Marginally attached workers - Persons not in the labor force who want and are  THE MINDS OF RETAILERS, BUT BUYING THROUGH FACEBOOK available for work, and who have looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months IS FAR FROM MAINSTREAM (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 FEDERAL REGULATORS STRUGGLE TO COLLECT FINES weeks preceding the survey. Discouraged workers are a subset of the marginally AND PENALTIES RESULTING attached. FROM THE FINANCIAL l Employed part-time for economic reasons - Persons who work less than 35 MELTDOWN OF 2008 hours per week.  When you include the above three classes of workers into the regular unemployment rate http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 1 / 12
  • 2. (U-3), the result is U-6 (Total unemployed, polus all marginally attached workers, plus RECENT COMMENTS total employed part-time for economic reasons).  At the end of June 2011, U-6 was Double Glazing on RUMOR: THE nearly 17.5%. This is nearly twice the regular unemployment rate of 9.2% reported APPLE IPAD 2 IS COMING TO by the BLS at the end of June 2011.    TOYS "R" US, THAT'S GREAT, BUT WILL CHILDREN REALLY LEARN? buy twitter followers on EMARKETER SAYS FACEBOOK NOW ACCOUNTS FOR MORE THAN 25% OF U.S. ONLINE DISPLAY ADS buy twitter followers on IMBEE, A SOCIAL NETWORKING SITE FOR TWEENS, RELAUNCHES WITH A LOT OF FANFARE AND TIGHTER CHILDREN'S SECURITY web hosting on HOW SONAR IS TRYING TO CONNECT MULTIPLE USERS FROM MULTIPLE SOCIAL NETWORKS, CAN THEY GET IT TO WORK? web hosting on FORRESTER Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics AND SHARETHIS SAY SAME THING: GO SOCIAL AND MOBILE Not only has the unemployment rate remained high for a long period of time, TO INCREASE ENGAGEMENT but the average duration of unemployment is skyrocketing without any hint of  AND TRAFFIC TO YOUR slowing down.  This truly scary chart shows this quite clearly. WEBSITE Website Design Company on AVOID THE TOP 10 INTERNET MARKETING MISTAKES BY SOFTWARE COMPANIES Jamie Shellman on FIVE KEY BUSINESS FINANCE TRENDS FOR 2010, STARTUP CAPITAL WILL BE TIGHT fruit machine games on ATLANTIC CITY'S TROPICANA CASINO AND RESORT LOSES $11 MILLION TWO GAMBLER'S IN A MATTER OF TWO MONTHS Dante Mallet on TESLA MOTORS' ENDS PRODUCTION OF ITS ROADSTER ELECTRIC SPORTSCAR, BUT TESLA NOT DONE WITH ELECTRIC SUPERCARS Robert on NOKIA'S NEW N9 SMARTPHONE OFFERS A COOL MODERN DESIGN, LARGE Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics SCREEN, SLICK MEEGO OS AND A UNIQUE GUI WITH THREE The problem has become so acute, that the Obama Administration has had to extend VIEWS unemployment benefits from 26 weeks to 52 weeks and now 99 weeks, coining the term "Ninety-Niner's" for those individuals out of work two years.   According to the BLS, there are now 6.289 million workers (see graph below) who ARCHIVES have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was up from July 2011 6.2 million in May.  This is very high, and long term unemployment is one of the defining  features of this recession.  June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 More... CATEGORIES Advertising Aeronautics and Space Agriculture Apparel and Accessories Archaeology Architecture and Construction Armaments and Weapons Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics Art and Design Percentage of Jobs Lost During The Great Recession Automobiles and Transportation After the miserable Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report - June Baby Products 2011 (see above), the pace of the recovery is really starting to look dimmer.   http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 2 / 12
  • 3. Beauty and Hair If you are like me, you are probably asking yourself a series of questions: Bicycles Bioscience "Why does the regular unemployment rate remain so high?" Blogs "Why do unemployed workers remain out-of-work so long?" Boats and Yachts "Where did the jobs go?" Books  "Is there any hope for the future?" Branding Celebrities and Personalities In order to answer the above questions, it is important to understand the emensity of the job situation. The chart that follows shows the job losses from the start of the Great Censorship Recession of 2007, in percentage terms - this time aligned at the start of the recession.   Childrens Social Development In terms of lost payroll jobs, the Great Recession is by far the worst since WWII.  As  Computer Viruses and Cyber a percentage of the US work force, we have lost 6.6% of the total jobs.  Making  Attacks things worse was the effect of the financial meltdown of September 2008 on Computers and Accessories business owners who reacted to the fear and uncertainty by laying off employees in extraordinary numbers, far greater than in past recessions.   Job losses were so deep  Consumer Electronics and during the Great Recession that it's no wonder the unemployment remains high. Accessories Consumer Packaged Goods Consumers Counterfeiting Crime crowdfunding and crowdsourcing Current Affairs Demographics and Lifestyle Segmentation Dictators and Rulers Digital and Video Content Sharing Diseases and Infections Earth and Environment eCommerce Economy Economy and Employment Education and Information Email Employment Energy and Green Technology Engineering Source:  calculatedriskblog.com Entertainment The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 or Stimulus Plan which was Espionage enacted in early January 2009, poured $787 billion in to the economy and lifted employment by roughly 2.5 million jobs, outside analyses have found, but that has not Fashion and Style been enough to reduce the unemployment rate substantially. Nor are there signs that Film business investment or consumer demand will do so soon. Finance Where Did All The Jobs Go? Firearms and Armaments This is a question that has haunted many economists.  There is no single reason, but it  Food and Drink appears that job losses began to accelerate after the year 2000.   Several reasons for the  Food and Nutrition incredible loss in jobs have been given, including job destruction forces from Foodservice computerization (faster computers, the internet, software productivity tools and Foreign Cultures applications) and globalization (outsourcing jobs, especially NAFTA). Franchising Outsourcing of jobs to foreign countries is one of the great hidden economic issues Funerals, Burials and Gaskets of recent years. It is big business, with multinational corporations actively shifting jobs out  of the United States and around the globe in search of the cheapest possible labor.  But,  Furniture following popular outcry against the practice in 2004, corporations have done their best to  Gambling hide the details even as they expand their offshoring activities. As a result, outsourcing  Games has by and large fallen out of the headlines. Geography According to a study titled, "Sending Jobs Overseas: The Cost to America’s Economy  Government and Regulatory and Working Families", was co-produced by the AFL-CIO and Working America to determine the economic impact of outsourcing jobs.  Some of the findings of the study  Health and Medical were as follows:   History l Collapse of Manufacturing Jobs - US manufacturing jobs dropped high of 19.5 Hospitality million workers in June 1979 to 11.5 workers in December 2009, a drop of 8 million  Household Consumer Items workers over 30 years. Between August 2000 and February 2004, manufacturing  Information Technology jobs were lost for a stunning 43 consecutive months—the longest such stretch since the Great Depression. During the Great Recession, which began December Insurance 2007 and ended November 2010, an estimated 2.5 million manufacturing jobs were International lost.  According to the Alliance for American Manufacturing (AAM, the US lost Internet 5.5 million jobs and at least $245 billion in manufacturing wages since the start of 2000. Inventions IPO's and Investments Jewelry, Watches and Accessories Legal Luxury Goods Magazines, Newspaper and http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 3 / 12
  • 4. Publications Mail and Freight Shipping Management and Human Resources Manufacturing and Prototypes Marine and Aquatic Mammals and Fish Market Intelligence and Data Analytics Marketing Mental Health and Psychology Mergers and Acquisitions Military and Wars Mining, Metals and Minerals Mobile Motorcycles and Scooters Music Natural Catastrophe's and Events Natural Resources News and Information Nuclear Energy and Radiation Oil Online Dating and Relationships Outdoor Products Parenting Pet Products and Accessories Pet Products and Health Care Pharmaceuticals Philanthropy, Foundations and Charities     l Destruction of Manufacturing Sector - The number of manufacturing firms has Photography declined sharply since 1999, after growing steadily earlier in the decade. The total  Physics number of manufacturing establishments of all sizes grew by nearly 26,000  Politics between 1990 and 1998 but shrank by more than 51,000 (12.5 percent) between  1998 and 2008. An additional 5,730 establishments disappeared in 2009, bringing  Product Design and Development the total net decline to more than 57,000 since 1998. Public Relations l Jobs Outsourced Overseas Skyrocket - Since 2000, the United States has lost Radio Frequency Identification more than 5 million manufacturing jobs and 850,000 information sector jobs, many RFID of which have been shipped overseas. Faulty trade and tax policies continue to lead to outsourcing as corporate executives boast record-breaking profits and Real Estate salaries. Relationships and Marriage l Job Outsourcing Is Big Business - Plunkett’s Outsourcing & Offshoring Religion Industry Almanac 2010, estimates that job outsourcing was a $500 billion global  Restaurants industry in 2009 that involved more than 350 prominent organizations operating in  61 distinct industry groups. Retailing l Corporate Profits Soar - While 26.1 million Americans were unemployed,  Robotics underemployed, marginally attached to the labor market or involuntarily working at  Science part-time jobs as of Labor Day 2010, according to the Economic Policy Institute,  corporate profits increased (at an annualized rate) to $1.64 trillion dollars during the  Search Engines second quarter of 2010. Security Systems and Devices The study determined that since 2000 the US has lost more than 5 million manufacturing  Sex and Mature Content jobs and 850,000 information sector jobs, many of which have been shipped overseas. Social Causes Faulty trade and tax policies continue to lead to outsourcing as corporate executives Social Networks boast record-breaking profits and salaries. Software Manufacturing isn't the only sector hurt by outsourcing.  A 2002 study conducted by  Sports the Forrester Research concluded that 3.3 million white-collar U.S. jobs—including 500,000 information technology jobs—will shift offshore to countries by 2015 at a cost of  Stock Prices over $136 billion in wages. Technology There are several arguments for and against the outsourcing of American jobs. Telecommunications  Corporations claim this is the only way they can compete in the global economy.  Labor  Television and environmental experts say American manufacturer's go overseas because foreign Textiles countries have less restrictive employment and environmental laws and regulations.  Toys Transportation Travel UFO's and Extra-Terrestrial Beings Utilities Venture Capital and Entrepreneuring Videoconferencing and Telepresence Water Wealth http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 4 / 12
  • 5. Weather Web/Tech Weblogs World Affairs World Records Add me to your TypePad People list    By the way, Working America's Job Tracker tracks the hiring, layoffs and outsourcing activities of over 400,000 American companies.  You can access the Job Tracker HERE. Subscribe to this blog's feed However, this is not the complete answer to this job loss puzzle. Blog powered by TypePad According to Barry Lynn and Phillip Longman, two research writers for the Washington Monthly, blame jobs losses not on job destruction forces, but a lack of job creation. And Blog powered by TypePad the engine of job creation is small businesses.   Member since 09/2010 Msrrs Lynn and Longman, propose a third job destruction force: CONSOLIDATION.  Starting in the early 80s, the Reagan administration began deregulating many industries  and decided to quit enforcing antitrust laws.  Big companies began merging in earnest,  and by the early 2000's it was common for three or four firms to control upwards of half or more of entire sectors.  It happened in banking, retail, transportation, pharmaceuticals,  medical and health, broadcasting and automobile industries, accounting, and advertising, just to name a few. And not only do big firms innovate less than small firms, they also prevent innovative small firms from ever getting a chance to grow in the first place by hiring the smartest and the brightest, controlling channels of distribution, generating economies of scale, litigation to prevent small company innovation, and exercising monopoly power.    The job growth of the 80s and 90s, Lynn and Longman suggest, was largely powered by companies that were founded in the 70s — companies like Apple, Microsoft, Oracle, and Genentech. By the time the 2000's rolled around, consolidation was largely complete and the pipeline of small, innovative companies was drier than it had been in decades.  The  following chart shows just how rapidly we began to lose jobs during the 2000's. To see just how widespread the job losses have been across the country, Tip Strategies, Inc, an economic development consulting firm in Austin, Texas, has designed an online animated map showing how jobs have come and gone, on a rolling 12-month from January 2004 to July 2009.  If you thought the above graphs were scary, wait till you see this one.  http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 5 / 12
  • 6. [Click The Map To View An Animated Map] The above map shows that JOBS GAINED rapidly turned into JOBS LOST beginning in the third quarter 2007, began to accelerate in 2008, and exploded after the Financial Meltdown of September 2009.  In mid-2005, Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans with a vengence and that part of the country was immediately hit with job losses.  Job losses  finally began to subside after Barack Obama came into office and enacted the Stimulus Bill in 2009.  During this tumultous period, the biggest job losses occurred in California,  Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Georgia, New York and Pennsylvannia.  Part-Time Workers For Economic Reasons  From the BLS report:  The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged in June at 8.6 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) increased slightly to 8.552 million in June. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 16.2% in June from 15.8% in May. This is the highest level this year (highest since December 2010). In a blog article dated April 8, 2011, I commented on the huge number of part-time workers (see graph below) which began trending upwards in January 2002, and really began to accelerate with the beginning of the Great Recession in December 2007.  As of January 2011, the number of part-time workers is now over 9 million, continuing the trend that began in 2002. Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics Recap of the NFP Data  Note that there is no category that was not under street expectations.  Things are much  worse in employment land than anyone thought. Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics Labor Force Participation (LFP) The LFP  is now at levels not seen in a decade. The LFP rate is the percentage of working-age persons in an economy who: l Are employed. l Are unemployed but looking for a job. Typically "working-age persons" is defined as people between the ages of 16-64. People in those age groups who are not counted as participating in the labor force are typically students, homemakers, and persons under the age of 64 who are retired. In the United States the labor force participation rate is usually around 67-68%. http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 6 / 12
  • 7. A look at the below chart confirms that as of Friday, July 8, 2011, the labor force participation hit a new record low of 64.1%.  The previous high LFP rate was 66.4% at  the end of December 2006. Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics A LOOK AT WHAT'S INSTORE FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY The manufacturing sector has always been the engine for the U.S. economy, creating stable employment and good paying jobs so that America can maintain its high standard of living and maintain a strong middle class.  The loss of millions of jobs due to  computerization, outsourcing and industry consolidation, may have permanently damaged the structure of the U.S. economy, resulting in continuing high rates of unemployment, lower manufacturing activity, a stagnant and unstable economy unable to create sufficient jobs, and lower GDP growth rates.  Economists have already warned of the potential for a  "double dip" recession.  The fragile nature of the U.S. economy makes it especially  susceptible to inflation, high interest rates, bubbles (real estate, technology, etc.), wars, natural disasters and sovereign debt problems like those in Europe.   The following charts make these points abundantly clear. ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)  Unemployment rates remain high becase we have become a nation of consumers not makers of things.  The graph below charts the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which measures the economic activity in the U.S.  manufacturing sector. The graph also includes several regional PMI's for different regions of the U.S.  Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the 23rd consecutive month, with a PMI of 55.3%, and the overall economy grew grew for the 25th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Source:  Institute of Supply Management The best single gauge of manufacturing comes from the ISM.  The PMI rate on June 30,  2011 was 55.3%.  A fall below 50% (PMI at the end of July 2008), which occurred just  prior to the financial meltdown, would signal a contraction. Are we headed in that direction?  This chart suggests we might: http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 7 / 12
  • 8. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) On June 17, 2011, The Conference Board released its Leading Economic Index (LEI) (see below) for the United States, and the LEI increased to 114.7 (2004=100) in May 2011, an increase of 0.4 percent, following no change in April (113.3), and a 1.4 percent rise in March (113.1).  The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an  American economic leading indicator intended to forecast future economic activity. The LEI has been trending upwards for 26 straight months since the March 2009 when it was at 98, just three months before the Great Recession ended (June 2009 - See above GDP graph).  The US GDP managed to grow in Q3/2009 (+1.6% annualized), reversing a  trend that had been in place since the start of the "Great Recession" (December 2007). Things started to accelerate in future quarters - Q4/2009 saw the economy grow at a 5% pace (annualized), while Q1/2010 clocked in at 3.7%. It seemed, for a time, that the economy was on the mend.  Since the first quarter of 2010, the wheels have come off and the US economy is seemingly running in place.    Bart van Ark, chief economist of The Conference Board said. “The index points to continued, though slower, U.S. growth for the rest of this year.  The LEI for the United States has been rising since April 2009, and  though its growth rate has slowed in 2010, it is well above its most recent peak in December 2006.”  Source: The Conference Board http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 8 / 12
  • 9. Source: The Conference Board Note:  The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®  for the U.S. include: 1) Average weekly hours, manufacturing, 2) Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,  3) Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials, 4) Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance, 5) Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods, 6) Building permits, new private  housing units, 7) Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 8) Money supply (M2), 9) Interest rate spread, 10- year Treasury bonds less federal funds, and 10) Index of consumer expectations The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The United States economy grew for the 7th straight quarter, although the rate of growth was disappointing.  The United States economy grew up 2.9 percent in 2010. Real GDP in the U.S. increased due to positive contributions from inventories, exports, consumer spending, business investment, and federal government spending. The overall contributions from these areas was offset by an increase in imports. The economy grew by 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, compared to a 3.1% growth the previous quarter, the United States Department of Commerce reported.  The  slowdown in the growth of real GDP in the first quarter of 2011 showed that the economy is not gaining momentum, dampening prospects for a meaningful reduction in unemployment in the near future. The Housing Crisis and Construction Industry The US is one of the few western industrialized nations where the dream of home ownership has become a reality for many Americans.  The era of cheap money (2003  through 2005), low or no down payment mortgages, real estate speculation, and reckless lending practices of banks and mortgage companies, resulted in highly inflated real estate prices.  A real estate bubble was eminent and it hit with a vengence beginning in 2006.   The resulting collapse of the US housing industry has resulted in levels of bank foreclosures that are unprecedented since the Great Depression.  The result was a  catastrophic decline in real estate prices and massive buildup of unsold properties and http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 9 / 12
  • 10. bank REO's (properties held by banks).  In a blog article dated December 10, 2010, at the end of August 2010, the inventory of visible and "shadow inventory" (see blog article for explanation) of unsold homes totaled 6.1 million units--a two year supply.   According to First American CoreLogic, at the end of September 2009, the  proportion of U.S. homeowners who owed more on their mortgages than the properties were worth swelled to about 23% or 10.9 million homes (click to view  interactive map by state).  Not much has changed since that time. At the end of  December 2010, there were 11.1 million mortgage properties underwater. At the end of March 2011 the number declined to 10.9 million.  Since January 2009, new housing starts are stuck at an all-time low of about 500,000 annualized units, compared to 2.250 million units in January 2006.  At the end of May  2011, new housing starts remain stuck at 500,00 annualized units, and there is no relief in sight. By every real estate construction and construction employment economic measurement used to determine the condition of real estate construction and  employment, the only bit of good news are interest rates, which for a 30-year fixed mortgage have remained under 5.50% over the last two years.  The interest rate for a 30- year fixed mortgage in California as of today is 4.75%. The collapse of the US housing industry has devastated the construction industry employment. The unemployment rate for experienced workers in construction was  24.7 percent in January 2010.  Total construction payroll employment has dropped  by 2.1 million jobs since 2006, with residential construction down by 1.3 million, or 38 percent.  The following charts put things into perspective: http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 10 / 12
  • 11. Conclusion If you are unemployed, I know this has been painful to read, as it was painful for me to research and write.  If you are lucky to be employed, this material should give you a lot to  think about.  65% of American's live paycheck-to-paycheck.  Having said this, it is my  honest opinion that today's unemployment situation is structural in nature due to the three job destruction forces mentioned previously, a shift from full-time to part-time workers, a lack of sufficient job creation businesses, and practice of employer's not to hire workers's over 50 years of age, and high unemployment among minorities and college graduates.  The new Digital Economy has also played a key role in the shift from blue collar to white  collar jobs. Political infighting, the federal deficit, federal debt ceiling and state budget deficits have compounded the unemployment problem, resulting in additional layoffs among government sector workers. Solving the job problem is not going to be an easy task.  Jobs outsourced  to other countries are not coming back and corporations are content to operate with less employees while relying on part-time workers and temporary workers, instead of hiring new full-time workers.     Courtesy of an article dated July 8, 2011 appearing in Business Insider, an article dated July 8, 2011 appearing in Business Insider, an article dated July 9, 2011 appearing in Business Insider, an article dated February 23, 2010 appearing in Mother Jones, an article dated October 23, 2009 appearing in WallepPop, an article dated July 8, 2011 appearing in Calculated Risk, and an article dated May 12, 2009 appearing in Spring Life, an article dated January 20, 2011 appearing in The Market Oracle, and an announcement dated June 9, 2009 by Plunkett Research, the Alliance for American Manufacturing and the Bureau of Labor Statistics Posted at 03:32 PM in Current Affairs, Economy, Economy and Employment, Politics, Real Estate | Permalink Technorati Tags: bureau of labor statistics, construction industry, economy, employment, housing industry, U.S. economy, unemployment, unemployment rate Favorite Reblog (0) Comments You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post. Post a comment Name: http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 11 / 12
  • 12. Email address: URL: Comment: 5 6 Submit PBT Consulting Powered by TypePad http://tommytoy.typepad.com/tommy-toy-pbt-consultin/2011/07/the-scariest-unemployment-picture-ever-.html Page 12 / 12