Public Lecture Presentation Slides (6.11.2013): Robert Dujarric: Understanding the US "pivot" to Asia

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Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies (ICAS) at TUJ

Educação Negócios

Rotating to Asia?
ICAS Seminar
Tokyo, 11 June 2013
Robert Dujarric
Director, Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies
Temple University, Japan Campus, Tokyo
robertdujarric@gmail.com
www.tuj.ac.jp/icas
1Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan
http://hidayaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/earth-rotation.png 9 June 2013

US wars East Asia
• 1850s-1860s: Threats vs. Japan.
• 1898: Philippines invaded.
• 1900: Beijing occupied (with allies)
• 1941-45: Pacific War.
• 1945-1949: Chinese Civil War.
• 1945-1989: Cold War.
• 1950-1953+: Korean War.
• 1954-1975: Vietnam War.
• 1989(?)-present: semi-Cold War with China.
Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 2
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_inwdIe1giWk/RwEzOBzMOlI/AAAAAAAAD10/M4nxdWIIdi8/s320/Filipino-American+war+1899.jpg 9 June 2013
http://www.losalamoshistory.org/images/hiroshima.jpg 9 June 2013 Hiroshima

Is the Pivot new?
• US and Asia before the Pivot:
– Big military presence since 1945 (and before).
– Pre-Pivot upgrades with Japan, Australia, SE Asia, India.
– Focus on China threat since 1990s.
Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 3
http://www.thepeacefulsea.com/pics/great-white.jpg 9 June 2013 Great White Fleet visits Japan

Constraints on the Pivot:
Global Balkans on Fire
Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 4
See Notes for image source

Short sample of Global Balkans crises
• Internal: Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Turkey…
• Religious: theocrats/secularists, Shia/Suni…
• Ethnic: Kurd/Arab, Arab/Jew, Turkish/Kurd...
• International: Israel/Palestine, Iran/Arab
States, Iran/Israel, India/Pakistan…
• Ongoing war: Afghanistan.
• Lots of oil/gas.
• Past/present/future wars.
Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 5
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Environment/Pix/columnists/2010/8/4/1280932648978/Saudi-Arabian-oil-field-006.jpg 9 June 2013

Meaning of Pivot
• Deterring/planning war with China.
• Potential for (very) big war(s).
• East Asia vital to US global role, US won’t leave.
• Signals US effort to contain China.
Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 6
http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/infocus/animals081911/a25_RTR2PEZ0.jpg 9 June 2013 panda
http://i67.servimg.com/u/f67/11/37/47/81/09021710.jpg 9 June 2013 prison guard

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Public Lecture Presentation Slides (6.11.2013): Robert Dujarric: Understanding the US "pivot" to Asia

1. Rotating to Asia? ICAS Seminar Tokyo, 11 June 2013 Robert Dujarric Director, Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies Temple University, Japan Campus, Tokyo robertdujarric@gmail.com www.tuj.ac.jp/icas 1Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan http://hidayaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/earth-rotation.png 9 June 2013

2. US wars East Asia • 1850s-1860s: Threats vs. Japan. • 1898: Philippines invaded. • 1900: Beijing occupied (with allies) • 1941-45: Pacific War. • 1945-1949: Chinese Civil War. • 1945-1989: Cold War. • 1950-1953+: Korean War. • 1954-1975: Vietnam War. • 1989(?)-present: semi-Cold War with China. Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 2 http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_inwdIe1giWk/RwEzOBzMOlI/AAAAAAAAD10/M4nxdWIIdi8/s320/Filipino-American+war+1899.jpg 9 June 2013 http://www.losalamoshistory.org/images/hiroshima.jpg 9 June 2013 Hiroshima

3. Is the Pivot new? • US and Asia before the Pivot: – Big military presence since 1945 (and before). – Pre-Pivot upgrades with Japan, Australia, SE Asia, India. – Focus on China threat since 1990s. Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 3 http://www.thepeacefulsea.com/pics/great-white.jpg 9 June 2013 Great White Fleet visits Japan

4. Constraints on the Pivot: Global Balkans on Fire Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 4 See Notes for image source

5. Short sample of Global Balkans crises • Internal: Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Turkey… • Religious: theocrats/secularists, Shia/Suni… • Ethnic: Kurd/Arab, Arab/Jew, Turkish/Kurd... • International: Israel/Palestine, Iran/Arab States, Iran/Israel, India/Pakistan… • Ongoing war: Afghanistan. • Lots of oil/gas. • Past/present/future wars. Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 5 http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Environment/Pix/columnists/2010/8/4/1280932648978/Saudi-Arabian-oil-field-006.jpg 9 June 2013

6. Meaning of Pivot • Deterring/planning war with China. • Potential for (very) big war(s). • East Asia vital to US global role, US won’t leave. • Signals US effort to contain China. Robert Dujarric - Temple University Japan 6 http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/infocus/animals081911/a25_RTR2PEZ0.jpg 9 June 2013 panda http://i67.servimg.com/u/f67/11/37/47/81/09021710.jpg 9 June 2013 prison guard

Notas do Editor

http://hidayaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/earth-rotation.png 9 June 2013
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_inwdIe1giWk/RwEzOBzMOlI/AAAAAAAAD10/M4nxdWIIdi8/s320/Filipino-American+war+1899.jpg 9 June 2013http://www.losalamoshistory.org/images/hiroshima.jpg 9 June 2013 Hiroshima
http://www.thepeacefulsea.com/pics/great-white.jpg 9 June 2013 Great White Fleet visits Japan
Map from http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_OUrLYJV_zc0/SSomzmoM4EI/AAAAAAAAAEM/-8TbjIYluwY/s400/global_balkans.jpg 3 June 2013. Term coined by Z. Brzezinski. http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/39936000/gif/_39936447_pakistan_missile_map416.gif 9 June 2013 – missiles capabilitieshttp://nationalpostnews.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/redline.jpg?w=620 9 June 2013 Netanyahu UN http://www.awesomestories.com/images/user/107b7d5d54.gif 9 June 2013 oil maphttp://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65996000/jpg/_65996636_29dd9870-253a-4259-8fa8-3309f5332bc0.jpg explosion 9 June 2013
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Environment/Pix/columnists/2010/8/4/1280932648978/Saudi-Arabian-oil-field-006.jpg 9 June 2013
http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/infocus/animals081911/a25_RTR2PEZ0.jpg 9 June 2013 pandahttp://i67.servimg.com/u/f67/11/37/47/81/09021710.jpg 9 June 2013 prison guard

Public Lecture Presentation Slides (6.11.2013): Robert Dujarric: Understanding the US "pivot" to Asia

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Public Lecture Presentation Slides (6.11.2013): Robert Dujarric: Understanding the US "pivot" to Asia

Notas do Editor