An overview of climate science and North Carolina's particular climate. Includes information on possible climate changes in NC.

1. Ryan Boyles
State Climatologist
North Carolina State University
ryan_boyles@ncsu.edu
Extreme Weather Preparedness at the Regional Level
Greensboro, NC
June 11, 2013
Climate Change -
What it means for North Carolina

2. About the State Climate Office
• Public Service Center at NCSU
• Statewide public resource for weather
and climate information and services
– Extension of research to community
applications
– Research on NC weather and climate
– Outreach
– Education
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3. Definitions
• Global warming describes an average
temperature increase of the Earth over time
• Climate change describes how weather
patterns will be affected around the globe
– Changes in climate averages or in extremes of
temperature and precipitation
– Location specific
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4. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 4•4
Latitude
Topography
Proximity to Oceans

5. RESULT – We get it all
• Insert collage of hazards photos
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6. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 6
Variations in Climate
• Short-term – Earth’s surface
– Winter
– Summer
• Longer-term
– Atmospheric composition
– Earth’s surface

7. Long-term Changes
• Atmospheric Composition
• Cloud type and amounts
• Surface land/ocean
– land use
– vegetation
– ice cover
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8. Climate Change: NC vs. Global
Temperature Trends - NC vs Global
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Departurefrom1901-2000Avg(F)
NC Temp Anomaly Global Temp Anomaly Linear (Global Temp Anomaly)
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9. Climate Change: NC vs. Global
Temperature Trends - NC vs Global
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Departurefrom1901-2000Avg(F)
NC Temp Anomaly Global Temp Anomaly
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10. Climate Change: NC vs. Global
Temperature Trends - NC vs Global
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Departurefrom1901-2000Avg(F)
NC Temp Anomaly Global Temp Anomaly
Linear (NC Temp Anomaly) Linear (Global Temp Anomaly)
Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 11

12. Tree Ring Proxy
NC Apr-Jun Rainfall Anomaly (estimated from Tree Rings)
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
933 983 1033 1083 1133 1183 1233 1283 1333 1383 1433 1483 1533 1583 1633 1683 1733 1783 1833 1883 1933 1983
Year
DifferencefromMean(in)
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13. How do we predict?
• Models
– Weather
– Seasonal climate
– Long-term climate
– Downscaling
– Validation
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14. Daily temperature bell curve
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•Source: 2012 IPCC Special Report

15. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 16
•Source: 2012 IPCC Special Report

16. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 17
•Source: 2012 IPCC Special Report

17. What does it mean for NC?
• NC is sensitive to weather
– Lots of Hazards
– Enormous exposure in agriculture,
natural resources, tourism
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18. • Changes in Precip
• NCA precip fig
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19. Future Winters in NC
• Probably more warm days in winter
• Probably fewer very colds days
• Probably fewer days with snow at
lower elevations
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20. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 21

21. Future Springs Seasons
• More warm days
• Possibly more intense thunderstorms
– We don’t think they will get weaker
• Perhaps more tornadoes, hail
– Much less certain
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22. Future Summers in NC
• Likely more hot days, warm nights
• Perhaps fewer days with rain
– More days with intense rain
• Perhaps more drought?
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23. Extreme Weather Preparedness - Greensboro, NC - June 13, 2013 24

24. Ag Impacts
• Heat, moisture stress
– Timing, frequency of rain is critical
– Increase need for irrigation
• When it rains, it pours
– Ponding in fields
– More soil preparation
• Pest impacts
– Lower fungal risks?
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25. Future Autumns in NC
• More intense hurricanes
– Decrease in frequency
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26. Future Coastline of NC
• Sea level rise
– Sea will continue to rise
• likely to speed up
– Depends on ice loss at poles, thermal
expansion
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27. So what?
• North Carolina is vulnerable
– Action to deal with today’s hazards will
help with future risk
• If we’ve seen it in the past, we’ll see it
in the future
– And maybe worse with global warming
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28. What do we do about it?
• NC is vulnerable to climate hazards
• Climate science informs society
– Society manages risk, not science
– Actions come from societal discussion
• We make these choices
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29. ryan_boyles@ncsu.edu
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu
919-515-3056 or 877-718-5544

30. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 31
Needs: Data
• All science develops with good data
collection
– Need for better environmental, climate
monitoring
• Data quality is critical
– MUST be useful for decision makers

31. Needs: Research
• Models need to be calibrated to
regional climate patterns
– Requires focus on state-level dynamics
• Statistical and dynamic downscaling
have limitations
– A new hybrid approach needed?
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32. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 33
Need: Applications
• Climate science, data must get used
– Not just by scientists
• Need extension of science, data
– To state, local agencies
– To businesses
– To all sectors sensitive to weather
• Decision support tools
– Driven by data, designed for end users
– Calibrated climate forecasts for guidance

33. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 34
Need: Education
• Lots of climate awareness, very little
climate education
• End users don’t know what models,
data are appropriate to use
• Climate education program needed
– Sector policy makers, K-12
– No state agency leading
• Can University system do this?

34. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC - June 14, 2012 35
Need: Collaboration
• Scientists, users need to work more
closely
– Among various user sectors
– Among various scientific arenas
• Service connections
– Climate scientists
– Extension specialists
– Field specialists