Ecological Niche Modeling Course - Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, 17-19 May 2016.

1. Climate, Land Use, and Sea Level Rise:
Diverse Drivers of Biodiversity Change in the
Face of Climate Change
A. Townsend Peterson
University of Kansas

6. Studying Drivers of Biodiversity Change
• Many potential drivers: land use change, direct
exploitation, climate change, sea level change…
• Anticipate future change: requires present-day
model, and future projections of drivers
• Document change to date: requires detailed
before-and-after views of distributions,
abundances, and/or conservation status
• We will explore both of these approaches…

7. PROJECTIONS TO FUTURE CLIMATE
CONDITIONS…

13. ADD EFFECTS OF LAND USE CHANGE

19. ADD EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL CHANGE

20. Sea Level Rise and Coastline Effects

21. US Effects

25. MEASURING AVIFAUNAL TURNOVER
IN RECENT HISTORICAL TIMES…

28. Well-sampled Recent Grid Squares

29. Species Gains

30. Species Losses

31. Overall Species Turnover

32. Overall Species Turnover

33. Significant Drivers of Turnover
• Observed precipitation change – NO
significant effect
• Observed temperature change – YES – strong
significant effects
• Human impact on landscapes – NO significant
effect
• BUT – results are coarse in nature …

35. Land Use Change
Climate Change (direct)
Sea Level Rise

36. Summary
• Biodiversity is highly dynamic, but the natural
dynamics are augmented by anthropogenic
change in recent decades
• Studying biodiversity change is complex:
– Future projections are hypothetical and hard to test
– Assessments of change already realized are highly
dependent on before-and-after datasets
• Land use and temperature change effects appear
dominant, but other factors (e.g., sea level rise)
can be important in some cases
• Creativity is key in making these studies possible

39. town@ku.edu