1. IP traffic explosion and
network neutrality
Toshiya Jitsuzumi, Dr.
Kyushu University

2. Moore’s Law
a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware
• Over the history of
computing hardware, the
number of transistors on
integrated circuits
doubles approximately
every two years.
• The period often quoted as
"18 months" is due to Intel
executive David House.
• This trend has continued
for more than half a
century. Sources in 2005
expected it to continue
until at least 2015 or
2020.
(wikipedia) Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore

3. Increased traffic in the network
1,200
Nov. 2011
Nov. 2010
1,000 Nov. 2009
Nov. 2008
800 Nov. 2007
Gbps 600
400
200
0
Source: MIC (2012)

4. Congestion in the core
download
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2551/4114774698_0e6c37e653.jpg
upload

5. Degraded QoS
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Japan (Nov. 2009) 25.6%
Japan (Jan. 2011) 27.2%
Japan (Mar.-Apr. 2012) 24.0%
US (2009, average) 51.3%
US (2009. median) 44.3%
UK (May 2010) 46.0%
Australia (2008Q4) 65.5%
Ireland (2008) 60.2%
Source: Jitsuzumi (2013), FCC （2010）, Ofcom（2010）, and Epitiro
（2009a, 2009b）

6. Basis of the problem
Rich contents and
applications
Powerful servers
ISPs’ core network
Internet backbones
Super fast access network
Powerful terminal
equipment

7. Framework of the NN problem
Content Provider
End users
Application Provider
Short-term solution
Congestion control Monopoly leverage
Unique business
How to balance efficiency How to restrain the ISPs
practices
and equality? with market dominance?
Internet
Service
Long-term solution Provider
Low barrier
Build an optimal capacity to entry
How to determine the capacity?
How to finance the investment?
Natural Monopoly leverage
monopoly
High barriers How to discipline the market
to entry power of network operators?
Network Operator

8. Before introducing NN rules…
Any competitive equilibrium or
Walrasian equilibrium leads to a
Pareto efficient allocation of
resources.
http://communities.vmware.com/servlet/JiveServlet/do
wnloadImage/38-17661-25817/bigstock-Competition-
concept-5232812.jpg

9. Status quo of the ISP market 1
Japan U.S.
BB ISP market ISP ISP ISP ISP
Service
-based
Operators Service
-based
BB access market Access
Operators
Wholesaler
Facility-based
Operators
(cables)
BB access line Facility-based Facility-based
wholesale market NTT-east/west Operators
Operators
(telco)
Local Loop Unbundling Local Loop Unbundling (dry copper)
(dark fiber, dry copper, and line-sharing)
Structural Separation

10. Status quo of the ISP market 2
Estimated market share in Japan Estimated market share in the US
BB ISP market 29.1% 3.8% 36.3% 44.2%
Others Others
BB access market 49.1% 5.8% 36.7% 53.9%
Other telcos
Powercos
BB access line
wholesale market 78.6% 13.5% 43.6% 53.9%
NTT Group RBOCs Cablecos
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Cablecos
Estimated market share Estimated market share
Municipalities
NTT group Power company Cables
Other telcos Municipalities Others RBOC Cables Others

11. Status quo of the ISP market 3
1752.3yen
NTT-ISP Telco-ISP
2050.0yen 4627.6yen 3683.0yen
3192.7yen 1314.1yen 3096.9yen
2874.2yen 2589.4yen
2088.4yen
4469.5yen
3535.8yen 3667.1yen
5009.6yen
2311.8yen
Vender ISP Cable ISP
3427.7yen 4186.5yen
4050.9yen
3245.1yen 3067.3yen

12. Obstacles against the competitive solution 1
• Supply side
• No ISP can control the end-to-end QoE.
• Positive externality of individual ISP’s effort
• No central authority in the Internet backbone
• No bilateral contractual obligation in interconnection
• Impact of dynamic routing technology
ISP ISP ISP
Local Content Server
ISP ISP The Internet
ISP
ISP
ISP ISP

13. Obstacles against the competitive solution 2
• Lack of market discipline from the consumer side
• Insufficient QoE literacy among end users
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
FTTH, single home
FTTH, apartment
cable, over 100 Mbps
cable, 35-100 Mbps
cable, 20-35 Mbps
cable, up to 20 Mbps
ADSL, over 35 Mbps
ADSL, 20-35 Mbps
ADSL, up to 20 Mbps Download %
self-estimation
average
As of Dec. 2010

14. For “effective” competition
Advertised speed
Price
+ ISP ranking
Maximum speed achieved
Average speed
Jitters
Latency
Packet loss
Down time
http://web.securityinnovation.com/Portals/49125/images/Disclosure.jpg