Typical Accident Pattern Detection
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Toru Nakata AHFE 2017
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Typical Accident Pattern Detection
- 1. Detection of Typical Progress Patterns of Industrial Incidents by Text Mining Technique Toru Nakata, Mohammad Sohrab National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japan. 1
- 2. Progress of Accident 2 An incident Initial Situation Environm ent State 1 State 2 Damage
- 3. Progress of Accident 3 An incident Initial Situation Environm ent State 1 State 2 Damage Another incident Initial Situation Environm ent State 1 State 2 Protection Measure Safe Result
- 4. Progress of Accident 4 Initial Situation Environm ent State 1 State 2 Damage Protection Measure Safe Result Merged Two Progress Flows
- 5. Causality Patterns accidents 5 Merged Many Progress Flows Motivation By merging many progress flows, we can find typical patterns of accident and key factors to prevent accidents.
- 6. State 6 A particular incident State 1 State 2 State 3
- 7. State = Sentence 7 A particular incident State 1 State 2 State 3 Its report Sentence 1 Sentence 2 Sentence 3 Strongly Reflected Hard to analyze numerically
- 8. State = Sentence (= Bug of Words) 8 A particular incident State 1 State 2 State 3 Its report Sentence 1 Sentence 2 Sentence 3 Strongly Reflected Bugs of words Loosely connected Hard to analyze numerically Easy to analyze numerically
- 9. ASRS's Incident reports • Aviation Safety Reporting System of NASA • Authors: Pilots and other crews who were involved in incidents. • Amount of Reports in 2013 – 4,469 report. 1,365,260 words. 110,963 sentences. • In average, a report has 305 words in 25 sentences. 9
- 10. An example of ASRS report I told her that it was 11 minutes until scheduled departure. I had also informed the gate agents twice during boarding that oversized carry-on baggage was entering the aircraft. The agent Supervisor stated that the cargo bin had already closed. 10 (This is a fragment. The original report is much longer.)
- 11. Split into sentences 11 1. << Beginning of Story>> 2. I told her that it was 11 minutes until scheduled departure. 3. I had also informed the gate agents twice during boarding that oversized carry-on baggage was entering the aircraft. 4. The agent supervisor stated that the cargo bin had already closed. 5. <<End of Story>>
- 12. Each sentence stands for a state 12 I told her that it was 11 minutes until scheduled departure. BoS I had also informed the gate agents twice during boarding that oversized carry-on baggage was entering the aircraft. The agent supervisor stated that the cargo bin had already closed. EoS
- 13. Drop 'stop words' (= less specific words) and syntactic information 13 {tell, minute, schedule (verb), departure} BoS {inform, gate, agent, twice, board (verb), oversize, carry- on, baggage, enter,aircraft} {agent, supervisor, state, cargo, bin, close} EoS
- 14. Transition between a pair of words 14 {tell, minute, schedule (verb), departure} BoS {inform, gate, agent, twice, board (verb), oversize, carry- on, baggage, enter,aircraft} {agent, supervisor, state, cargo, bin, close} EOS
- 15. Transition Matrix, T 15 Following Word tell minute inform gate agent ... Preced ing Word tell 0 0 1 1 1 ... minute 0 0 1 1 1 ... inform 0 0 0 0 0 ... gate 0 0 0 0 0 ... agent 0 0 0 0 0 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
- 16. Word Feature 1: Word Order Ranking 16 • Tij : Frequency of transition from word i to word j • ai = sum (Tij for all j) - sum (Tji for all j) – Balance of departures versus arrivals around word i. • This score is unstable. • bi = sum (aj for all j of Tij> 0) - sum (aj for all j of Tij< 0) – Improved score of word order of word i based on its neighbors' balance.
- 17. Word Feature 2: Commonality 17 • cij =Tij + Tji : Commonality between word i to word j. • vi : vector representation of word i. – Similar meaning words should have similar content in their vector. – Calculated by iteration of – Number of Dimension set as 2.
- 18. Result on ASRS Reports 4469 Reports in 2013. 18
- 19. Vi versus Tij 190-2 2-3 -1 1 3-2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 0 -6 -4 -2 2 4 6 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 Topic Position (X) WordOrderIndex aircraft runway flight foot approach time pilot landingaltitude airport engine departure traffic fuel emergency arrival procedure clearance takeoff problem descentmile crew speed situation minute passenger pointturn gear controller control checklist area ground position issue gatefrequency number airplane taxi climb knot weather maintenance event plane system light flap power call message condition course incident day autopilot cabin line way radio degree change company indication airspace side destination level vector ATC Tower Captain FirstOfficer Maintenance QRH CONTROL Aircraft Controller Center StoryEnd fly make get go tell ask call see say clear turn take give continue land leave use head start need come notice think checklook know descend advise climb follow receive work begin feeltry return inform cross find stop depart report run believe declare request hear contact complete require happen set issue hold show state want appear maintain causeput miss decide taxi indicate enter perform StoryStart
- 20. Vi versus Tij 200-2 2-3 -1 1 3-2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 0 -6 -4 -2 2 4 6 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 Topic Position (X) WordOrderIndex aircraft runway flight foot approach time pilot landingaltitude airport engine departure traffic fuel emergency arrival procedure clearance takeoff problem descentmile crew speed situation minute passenger pointturn gear controller control checklist area ground position issue gatefrequency number airplane taxi climb knot weather maintenance event plane system light flap power call message condition course incident day autopilot cabin line way radio degree change company indication airspace side destination level vector ATC Tower Captain FirstOfficer Maintenance QRH CONTROL Aircraft Controller Center StoryEnd fly make get go tell ask call see say clear turn take give continue land leave use head start need come notice think checklook know descend advise climb follow receive work begin feeltry return inform cross find stop depart report run believe declare request hear contact complete require happen set issue hold show state want appear maintain causeput miss decide taxi indicate enter perform StoryStart Words tend to appear earlier. (= cause) Words tend to appear later. (= result)
- 21. Vi versus Tij (zoomed-up) 210-2 2-1 1-2.4 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.6 0 -2 2 -1 1 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 Topic Position (X) WordOrderIndex aircraft runway flight foot approach time pilot landingaltitude airport engine departure traffic fuel emergency arrival procedure clearance takeoff problem descentmile crew speed situation minute passenger point turn gear controller control checklist area ground position issue gatefrequency number airplane taxi climb knot weather maintenancemaintenancemaintenance event plane system light flap power call message condition course incident day autopilot cabin line way radio degree change company indication airspace side destination level vector ATC Tower Captain FirstOfficer Maintenance QRH CONTROL Aircraft Controller Center fly make get go tell ask call see say clear turn take give continue land leave use head start need come notice think checklook know descend advise climb follow receive work begin feel try return inform cross find stop depart report run believe declare request hear contact complete require happen set issue hold show state want appear maintain cause put miss decide taxi indicate enter perform Words tend to appear earlier. (= cause) Words tend to appear later. (= result)
- 22. View from Another Dimension 22 0-2 2-3 -1 1 3-2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 0 -6 -4 -2 2 4 6 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 Topic Position (X) WordOrderIndex aircraft runway flight foot approach time pilot landingaltitude airport engine departure traffic fuel emergency arrival procedure clearance takeoff problem descentmile crew speed situation minute passenger pointturn gear controller control checklist area ground position issue gatefrequency number airplane taxi climb knot weather maintenance event plane system light flap power call message condition course incident day autopilot cabin line way radio degree change company indication airspace side destination level vector ATC Tower Captain FirstOfficer Maintenance QRH CONTROL Aircraft Controller Center StoryEnd fly make get go tell ask call see say clear turn take give continue land leave use head start need come notice think checklook know descend advise climb follow receive work begin feeltry return inform cross find stop depart report run believe declare request hear contact complete require happen set issue hold show state want appear maintain causeput miss decide taxi indicate enter perform StoryStart Word Order Topic Position (Primal component)
- 23. View from Another Dimension 23 0-2 2-3 -1 1 3-2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 0 -6 -4 -2 2 4 6 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 Topic Position (X) WordOrderIndex aircraft runway flight foot approach time pilot landingaltitude airport engine departure traffic fuel emergency arrival procedure clearance takeoff problem descentmile crew speed situation minute passenger pointturn gear controller control checklist area ground position issue gatefrequency number airplane taxi climb knot weather maintenance event plane system light flap power call message condition course incident day autopilot cabin line way radio degree change company indication airspace side destination level vector ATC Tower Captain FirstOfficer Maintenance QRH CONTROL Aircraft Controller Center StoryEnd fly make get go tell ask call see say clear turn take give continue land leave use head start need come notice think checklook know descend advise climb follow receive work begin feeltry return inform cross find stop depart report run believe declare request hear contact complete require happen set issue hold show state want appear maintain causeput miss decide taxi indicate enter perform StoryStart 0-2 2-3 -1 1 3-2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 0 -2 2 -1 1 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 Topic Position (X) TopicPosition(Y) aircraftrunway flightfoot approach timepilot landingaltitude airport enginedeparturetraffic fuelemergencyarrival procedureclearance takeoff problemdescentmile crewspeed situationminute passengerpointturn gearcontroller control checklistarea groundposition issue gatefrequency numberairplanetaxiclimbknot weather maintenanceeventplane systemlightflappowercall messageconditioncourse incident dayautopilot cabinline wayradiodegree change company indicationairspace side destinationlevelvector ATCTower CaptainFirstOfficer MaintenanceQRHCONTROLAircraftController Center StoryEndfly makegetgotellask callseesayclearturn takegive continuelandleaveusehead startneed comenoticethink checklook knowdescend adviseclimb followreceive workbegin feeltry returninformcross findstopdepartreport runbelieve declarerequesthear contact completerequirehappensetissue hold showstate wantappearmaintain causeputmiss decidetaxiindicateenter performStoryStart Word Order Topic Position (Primal component) Topic Position (Primal component) Topic Position (Second component)
- 24. Word Distribution (2-dimensional vi) 0-2 2-3 -1 1 3-2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 0 -2 2 -1 1 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 Topic Position (X) TopicPosition(Y) aircraftrunway flightfoot approach timepilot landingaltitude airport enginedeparturetraffic fuelemergencyarrival procedureclearance takeoff problemdescentmile crewspeed situationminute passengerpointturn gearcontroller control checklistarea groundposition issue gatefrequency numberairplanetaxiclimbknot weather maintenanceeventplane systemlightflappowercall messageconditioncourse incident dayautopilot cabinline wayradiodegree change company indicationairspace side destinationlevelvector ATCTower CaptainFirstOfficer MaintenanceQRHCONTROLAircraftController Center StoryEndfly makegetgotellask callseesayclearturn takegive continuelandleaveusehead startneed comenoticethink checklook knowdescend adviseclimb followreceive workbegin feeltry returninformcross findstopdepartreport runbelieve declarerequesthear contact completerequirehappensetissue hold showstate wantappearmaintain causeputmiss decidetaxiindicateenter performStoryStart 24
- 25. 0-2 2-3 -1 1 3-2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 0 -2 2 -1 1 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 Topic Position (X) TopicPosition(Y) aircraftrunway flightfoot approach timepilot landingaltitude airport enginedeparturetraffic fuelemergencyarrival procedureclearance takeoff problemdescentmile crewspeed situationminute passengerpointturn gearcontroller control checklistarea groundposition issue gatefrequency numberairplanetaxiclimbknot weather maintenanceeventplane systemlightflappowercall messageconditioncourse incident dayautopilot cabinline wayradiodegree change company indicationairspace side destinationlevelvector ATCTower CaptainFirstOfficer MaintenanceQRHCONTROLAircraftController Center StoryEndfly makegetgotellask callseesayclearturn takegive continuelandleaveusehead startneed comenoticethink checklook knowdescend adviseclimb followreceive workbegin feeltry returninformcross findstopdepartreport runbelieve declarerequesthear contact completerequirehappensetissue hold showstate wantappearmaintain causeputmiss decidetaxiindicateenter performStoryStartPose Control Communication with controller Avoiding other traffic General Verbs Scene at Airport Trouble on Aircraft Reporting
- 26. Detected Topic Clusters No. contents and meaning Typical word 1 general verbs work, stop, call, feel, hear, run, declare 2 control of airplane posture and direction head (verb), descend, climb, cross 3 communication controller, tower, call, radio, frequency 4 avoiding near-miss traffic, clearance, turn, mile 5 events at an airport runway, takeoff, departure, landing 6 mechanical troubles engine, gear, system, maintenance, 7 incident reporting incident, day, company, control (noun) 26
- 27. Visualization of Causality Graph 27 0-2 2-1 1-2.4 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.6 0 -2 2 -1 1 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 Topic Position (X) WordOrderIndex aircraft runway flight foot approach time pilot landingaltitude airport engine departure traffic fuel emergency arrival procedure clearance takeoff problem descentmile crew speed situation minute passenger point turn gear controller control checklist area ground position issue gatefrequency number airplane taxi climb knot weather maintenancemaintenancemaintenance event plane system light flap power call message condition course incident day autopilot cabin line way radio degree change company indication airspace side destination level vector ATC Tower Captain FirstOfficer Maintenance QRH CONTROL Aircraft Controller Center fly make get go tell ask call see say clear turn take give continue land leave use head start need come notice think checklook know descend advise climb follow receive work begin feel try return inform cross find stop depart report run believe declare request hear contact complete require happen set issue hold show state want appear maintain cause put miss decide taxi indicate enter perform
- 28. Conclusion • We have huge among of accident report, so it is difficult to read all of them and to find typical progress pattern of accidents. • By using NLP (word order and word commonality analysis), common progress pattern of aviation incidents are visualized. • Future Work: How common accident patterns can be generated as sentence- format? (What we showed is word-wise network style.) 28
- 29. 29
- 30. Why text data? • We have much information of accidents/incidents. • Most of them are in text format. – Accident Reports, daily operation log book, etc. • To use the data, natural language processing (NLP) is required. 30
- 31. Result of conventional method (Classification of reports with respect to containing words) 31 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Distribution of Incident Reports (PCA, Nomarized Data) Landing Airport Tower Attitude Runway Controller Engine Maintenance CrewTraffic