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Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050
1.
SustainableLifestyles2050 D4.1FutureScenariosforNewEuropeanSocialModelswithVisualisations 20152020203020402050 Scenariosfor SustainableLifestyles 2050: FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops
2.
2|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 AboutSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 ReportPrincipalAuthors:JuhaLeppänen(DemosHelsinki),AleksiNeuvonen (DemosHelsinki),MariaRitola(DemosHelsinki),InkaAhola(DemosHelsinki), SiniHirvonen(DemosHelsinki),MikaHyötyläinen(DemosHelsinki),Tuuli Kaskinen(DemosHelsinki),TommiKauppinen(DemosHelsinki),OutiKuittinen (DemosHelsinki),KaisaKärki(DemosHelsinki),MichaelLettenmeier(Demos Helsinki/D-mat),RoopeMokka(DemosHelsinki) Withinputsfromtheprojectconsortiumandprojectadvisors ReportVisualisation:FrancoisJegou(StrategicDesignScenarios/Politec- nicodiMilano),AdèleSeyrig(StrategicDesignScenarios),MartaCorubolo (PolitecnicodiMilano),AnnaMeroni(PolitecnicodiMilano),Christophe Gouache(StrategicDesignScenarios) ReportLayout:KirmoKivelä(DemosHelsinki) ProjectCoordinator: UNEP/WuppertalInstituteCollaborating CentreonSustainableConsumptionandProduction(CSCP) HagenauerStraße30.42107Wuppertal.Germany Tel+49.202.45958-17 Fax+49.202.45958-30 www.scp-centre.org CherylHicks,ProjectDirector:cheryl.hicks@scp-centre.org NoraBrüggemann,ProjectManager:nora.brueggemann@scp-centre.org ProjectConsortium: Ashoka,BelgiumandFrance DemosHelsinki(Demos),Finland EcoinstitutBarcelona(ECOI),Spain EnergyresearchCentreoftheNetherlands(ECN) EuroHealthNet PolitecnicodiMilano(Polimi),Italy RegionalEnvironmentalCenterforCEEcountries(REC),Hungary TheInternationalInstituteforIndustrialEnvironmentalEconomicsatLund University(ULUND),Sweden TheNorthernAllianceforSustainability(ANPED),Belgium ECDeskOfficer: PerlaSrour-Gandon,DomenicoRossettidiValdalbero Duration:1January2011to31December2012 Fundingscheme:EuropeanCommission’sSeventhFramework Programme(CoordinationandSupportAction): Socio-economicSciencesandHumanities Budget:EUcontribution1,423,082 Website:www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Onlinecommunity:www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/community SustainableLifestyles2050 ProjectCoordinator FundingScheme ProjectConsortium Contents WhatisSPREADSustainableLifestyles20503 Unsustainablelifestyleimpactstobeovercome by2050:Keyfindingsoftheproject’s baselineresearch4 Ourscenariosonsustainablelifestyles6 Thebackcastingmethod7 Thesustainablelifestyle=8000kgperannum8 Fourscenarios,twocriticaluncertainties10 Howdidwegethere?12 Fourscenariostosustainablelifestyles2012–2050 SingularSuperChampions15 GoverningtheCommons25 LocalLoops35 EmpatheticCommunities45 Comparingfouralternativescenarios onsustainablelifestyles Matrixonlifestyledifferencesin thefourscenarios56 HowdidtheSPREADscenariosreach lifestylesof8000kgmaterialfootprint?58 AppendixA:SPREADSustainableLifestyles 2050DelphisurveyQuestionnaires60 AppendixB:SPREADSustainableLifestyles 2050CountingBackwardsWorkshop62 References63
3.
ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|3 WhatisSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050isaEuro- peansocialplatformprojectrunningfromJanu- ary2011toDecember2012.Differentsocietal stakeholders–frombusiness,research,policy andcivilsociety–havebeeninvitedtopartici- pateinthedevelopmentofavisionforsustain- ablelifestylesin2050.Thisprocesswillresultin aroadmapforstrategicactionthatwillidentify opportunityspacesforpolicy,business,re- searchandcivilsocietytotakeactiontoenable moresustainablelifestylesacrossEurope. Howtospreadsustainablelifestyles? BasedonGeels2002 Landscapelevel Regimelevel Nichelevel Promising practicePromising practice Societalvalues, overallparadigms, megatrends Embedding Multiplying Upscaling Markets, Science, PoliciesMarkets, Science, Policies Markets, Science, Policies Howdoesitwork? Comments Comments Consuming Consuming •collectivekitchensopentofood-groupmembersarediffusedall aroundthecity.Foodfacilitiesareinfactservicesthatallowpeople tosavetimeinpreparingfoodwhileincreasingthequalityoffood prepared; •everyfoodfacilitygathersafoodgroupthatagreesonaweeklyfood scheme:eachmemberisinchargeofpreparingaspecificcourseofa meal,andcooksitforallthemembers.Inreturnhe/shereceivesthe portionsoftheothercoursespreparedbytheothermembers. “...tortillasaretheonlyfoodI’mreallyquitegoodatand, luckily,theyarequiteversatile.TodayIhavepreparedstewed vegetablesasfillingand…voilà..aperfectdish!..Philip preparedthesalad,andMariathedessert.Afulldinnerisfinally readyformeandmylittleJody:Ijustneedtopickitupfromthe foodfacilityandlaythetable.” Eduardo,41,designer,singleparentwithadaughter FOODFACILITY Howdoesitwork? •themixoffoodproductionhaschanged:domesticproduction, condominiumurbanfarmingareas,neighborhood,peri-urbanand nationalproductionandsomeinternationalimportation •itiscalledurbanfooddistrictplanning.Thecityisnowdividedinto fooddistrictsthatmustbeasself-sufficientaspossible.Eachfood districtreliesforacertainquotaonselfproductionoffoodandfor therestonlocalfarmsandproducers. •urbanneighborhoodsaretwinnedwithperi-urbanfarmsandfood- hubssothatfoodproductionandconsumptionarerelated,mutual commitmentandmutualresponsibility. •awellconnectedfoodsupplychainisnecessary,whichcanhelp consumersgettheclosestresourcesandswitchwithacertain flexibility; “…wehavethechancetoliveinacitywherethemunicipality hasdecidedtointroducethefooddistrictplanninginitiative. Ourfoodmixmustbeatleastnearly50%locallyproduced and10%self-producedamongneighbours:garlicisgrowing onthebalcony,cucumbersdownstairs,tomatoescomefrom neighbours’vegetablegardens,commutersbringfreshdairy productsfromsuburbanareasintodowntown.Istillgotolocal supermarkets,onceinawhileImaybuysomeimportedfood…” Martha,36,motherofa3childrenfamily URBANFOOD DISTRICTPLANNING Comments Comments Living Living Howdoesitwork? •sustainableactiveeducationgoesthroughthenormaleducation circle,activitybasedlearningprojectshavebecomepartofthe formaleducationmethod; ••farmingclassesandotherbasicknowledgearoundsustainablefood aremandatoryateveryeducationleveltoprepareawarecitizensable totakepartactivelyinco-productionofthefoodtheywilleat; •theclassroomisnolongertheonlyplacetolearn.Schoolcampuses aredevelopedwithfarming,foodtransformationandpreparation facilities; •schoolcanteensaresuppliedwithvegetablescultivatedinthe garden. Ivan,15-year-old,middleschoolstudent “…InourschoolthereisavegetablegardenwhereI’ve beenattendingfarmingclasssinceprimaryschool,andI’ve alwaysdoneverywell.Iknowlotsoflocalcropsandfarming knowledge.Theteachersteachushowtoplantandharvest,we haveregularfarmingworkinthevegetablegarden,andour generationfeelsthereforeperfectlycomfortablewithtaking partinurbanfarmingtoproduceonthespotpartofthefruits andveggiesweconsume...” ACTIVEFARMINGCLASSES Howdoesitwork? •jobsaredesignedasfaraspossibletoallowremoteworkingand reducecommutingincities; •neighbourhoodsareequippedwithdifferenttypesofdistant workingfacilities; •socializationisamixoflocalandremoteconnectionswithdistant workingpartnersandneighboursemployedbydifferentcompanies; •whereyouworkismoreandmoreperceivedascompletelydetached fromwhoyouworkfor; •peopleenjoychangingsocial/physicalenvironmentsespeciallyfor boringtasks. “...whereamIgoingtoworktoday?It’saquestionIaskmyself nearlyeverymorning:wehaveplentyofco-workingoptionsat awalkingdistanceinthearea.Iusedtogotosomeofthework- caféswhenIstartedmyfirstjob:amessyenvironment,lotsof peopletomeet!NowIprefertocycletoltheparktochange atmosphereorstayonthefirstfloorofthecondominiumwhere myoldmumlives2blocksaway...” WangYong,24,agentinacallcenter REMOTE CO-WORKINGSPACES Howdoesitwork?Comments Comments Society Society Howdoesitwork? •goingtopublic/privatehospitalisgettingmoreandmoreexpensive andalsocarriestheriskofcontractingdiseaseswhenstayingin hospital; •fornon-emergencies,homehospitalisthenorm:stayingathome andsupportedbyaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,rented self-medicationappliancesandneighborhoodsocialcarenetworks; •healthcareprovidersprovideongoingmedicalsupportathomeand remotetreatmentwithappropriatetechnology; •‘eHealth’helpstoincreasepublicmedicalknowledgeand participationintreatmentalsoreducinghealthcosts; •especiallychronicpatientsandelderlypeoplecanstayathomefor longer. “...goingtohospitalnowadaysmostlymeansstayingathome! ButathomeIcanmeetthedoctoronlineandgetthesupportof theneighborhoodsocialcarenetwork..Icanbesupportedalso byaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,self-medication appliancestemporarilyrentedfromthelocalhealthcarecenter, andgetadvicefromformerpatientsfromtheneighborhood...” Gianna,68-year-old,suburbaninhabitant,retired HOMEHOSPITAL •hugecostsinducedbybadsustainablemanagementand catastropherelatedincreasesinducepeopletopaymoreandmore attentiontowhatisdonewiththeirmoney; •aftermanyfinancialcrisesduetolackofinvestmentregulations, transparencyisthenormthatalsobenefitssustainableprojects; •sustainableresponsibility,ethicalwealthandfairbankingcriteria isthenormonthefinancialmarket;investmentsaremadeonlyfor sustainableproposals. “…taxesonpersonalincomeroselikemadtocoverdroughts hereandtsunamisthereandcatastrophesaftersilly urbanizationprojectsinmega-cities:nowIprefertoearnless, withgreenandfairinvestmentsbutIwanttoknowwhatmy moneyisusedforandIwanttobeabletojudgemyselfifthe projectsfinancedwillbegoodornotforthefutureofmykids…” Andrea,37-year-old,fatherofthe3childrenfamily CLEANMONEY Howdoesitwork? Comments Comments Moving Moving Howdoesitwork? •urbanplanningtowardslesscaraccessibleneighborhoods,mixed livingandcommercialzonesenablingmorewalkingandcycling; •developmentofrentingschemesfordifferentsizedtrolleysfor thetransportationofgoodsbypedestrians,fromsimpleweekly shoppingtosecondhandfurnitureexchangeormovinghomeat walkingdistance; •parkingstations,wheretrolleyscanberentedfortransportand returned,areavailableinallsuperblocksinthecity. “…normallygetourweeklyveggieboxdeliveredtoourhome, Ijusttakealittletrolleyfromthecornerstationandtakeit backtothestationjustbelowthehouse;buttoday,givenall theshoppingfortheparty,weneedatleastacargo-trolley,the sameasweusedtomovegrandmafromherformerflattothe roomnearwherewelivenow…” Tanja,29,singlemotheroftwochildren URBANMOBILITYOF GOODS •densificationofcitiesandnewurbanizationmodelslimitmegacities andurbansprawl; •promotionofmediumsizedenseurbanenvironmentswithdense publictransportsystemsinfrastructureinsidethecityandhigh- speedtrainconnectionsbetweencities; •urbanplanningstandardsbasedonsuccessionofhighdensity lodgingandzerodensitygreen/leisureareas; •newarchitecturemovementsfollowingideaslike‘downtowninthe forest’or‘thehigh-rise/urbanagriculturemix’... •changingtherelationshipbetweenparksandgreenareaswithin urbanplanningasapatternmadeofhigh-riseblocksandforests blocks. “…Iamlivinginahigh-risevillageintheforest:itlooksabitlike you’vetakensomeblocksofManhattanandsettledthemdeep intheforestinCornwall.AtthebeginningIdidintobelievethat this‘zerodensity’breathingzonesplanningwouldberespected. NowIhavetheofferofarealcityintermsofworkopportunities andculturallifeatawalkingdistanceandsurroundedbyreal woodsorwheatfields.AndItakethespeedtrainifreallyIhave togotothenexthigh-risevillage...” Misaku,31,physician HIGH-RISEVILLAGES Howdoesitwork?Comments Comments Society Society Howdoesitwork? •goingtopublic/privatehospitalisgettingmoreandmoreexpensive andalsocarriestheriskofcontractingdiseaseswhenstayingin hospital; •fornon-emergencies,homehospitalisthenorm:stayingathome andsupportedbyaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,rented self-medicationappliancesandneighborhoodsocialcarenetworks; •healthcareprovidersprovideongoingmedicalsupportathomeand remotetreatmentwithappropriatetechnology; •‘eHealth’helpstoincreasepublicmedicalknowledgeand participationintreatmentalsoreducinghealthcosts; •especiallychronicpatientsandelderlypeoplecanstayathomefor longer. “...goingtohospitalnowadaysmostlymeansstayingathome! ButathomeIcanmeetthedoctoronlineandgetthesupportof theneighborhoodsocialcarenetwork..Icanbesupportedalso byaseriesofremotehealthmeasuredevices,self-medication appliancestemporarilyrentedfromthelocalhealthcarecenter, andgetadvicefromformerpatientsfromtheneighborhood...” Gianna,68-year-old,suburbaninhabitant,retired HOMEHOSPITAL •hugecostsinducedbybadsustainablemanagementand catastropherelatedincreasesinducepeopletopaymoreandmore attentiontowhatisdonewiththeirmoney; •aftermanyfinancialcrisesduetolackofinvestmentregulations, transparencyisthenormthatalsobenefitssustainableprojects; •sustainableresponsibility,ethicalwealthandfairbankingcriteria isthenormonthefinancialmarket;investmentsaremadeonlyfor sustainableproposals. “…taxesonpersonalincomeroselikemadtocoverdroughts hereandtsunamisthereandcatastrophesaftersilly urbanizationprojectsinmega-cities:nowIprefertoearnless, withgreenandfairinvestmentsbutIwanttoknowwhatmy moneyisusedforandIwanttobeabletojudgemyselfifthe projectsfinancedwillbegoodornotforthefutureofmykids…” Andrea,37-year-old,fatherofthe3childrenfamily CLEANMONEY Howdoesitwork? Howdoesitwork? Comments Comments Consuming Consuming •meatonceaweekinavegetariandietisthenorm; •theweeklymeatfeast,Sundayisthecelebrationdayformeat,feasts areorganizedathome; •meatisgettingmoreexpensive,soitisactuallyapleasureandluxury thatcanbeaffordedonlyonceaweek; •alow-animalproteindiethasbeenpromotedbybothgovernments andsocialcommunitiesduetofoodcrisis,economicreasonsand necessaryshifttomoresustainablefoodconsumption. “…allthefamilygatherstogetheringrandma’shouseon Sundaymorning,tocelebratethemeatfeast.Grandmacooks sometraditionalmeatdishesthatIdon’teatsooften...Usually athomewedonoteatmeatandatschoolwehaveagreen- vegetablecanteen...Itisgoodtoenjoysomemeatonceina while.I’lltrynottoeattoomuchtoday...” Lily,10yearold,primaryschoolgirl,describingSundaymeat feastatgrandma’splace THEMEATFEAST •theWisePersonalFoodShoppersystemcananalyzeuser’sgenetic dataandfitahealthydiettohis/herfoodchoices; •thesystemcanbeaccessedfromanyportabledeviceineveryfood retailplaceandrestaurant; •thedevicedisplayspropertiesoffoodtheuserwouldliketoeator purchase;includesitinthedietbalance;showsquantityneeded/ allowed; •ithelpstomakesmartandrightpurchasechoices,toraiseindividual awarenessofresponsiblediet,consumelesshigh-caloriefood,more localfood,organicfood…andenhancesustainablelifestyles… “...Ihavejustrecoveredfromsurgeryandwiththemixofdrugs foraftertreatmentIcanonlyeatcertainkindsoffood...The hospitalleasemeaWisePersonalFoodShoppersettomy exactdietandit’sareliefwhendoingmyshopping.Ifeelsafe forobservingmydietandwithcombinedrecipessuggested, cookinglessonsandinformationonfoodoriginsit’salsomuch easiertoachieveasustainablediet.IthinkIwilluseitalsoafter theendofthetherapyasaguideinmydailylife…” Elisa,58-year-old,citizen W.P.F.S.WISEPERSONAL FOODSHOPPER Howdoesitwork? Comments Comments Living Living •sustainabilityeducationisembeddedindailylivingintheformof activeeducation,projectbasedlearning...; •friendlyperiodsspentincontactwiththerealworldformthebasisof ‘learningforlife’education; •‘learningforlife’,meaningacquiringbasicknowledgeonnatural cycles,bio-diversity,regenerationprocesses,self-production... takesplaceonthefield,incontactwithcommunities,families, professionals...; •manypublicandprivateinstitutionsdealingwithsustainableissues providebasiceducationontopoftheirmainactivities. “...Thecurriculumforsustainableeducationinourschoolis basedon25micro-internshipsperyearconsistingindayorhalf- daytripstoorganicfarms,re-designandrecyclingcompanies, newtraditionalcraftsmanworkshops,wildlifeprotection projects,humanitarianprograms...wherewegetintouchand learnthebasicsaboutgrowingfood,providinggoodsand service,self-production,naturepreservation…” Jenny,9yearold,primaryschoolpupil SUSTAINABLE COMPANIONSHIP Howdoesitwork? •strivingtosteergeneralbehaviourtowardssustainablelifestyles constitutesadiffuseddynamiccontextprovidinglearning opportunitiesatanymomentindailyliving; •thesystemworksbyrewardinggoodbehaviour •pervasiveITinproductsandaugmentedenvironmentsprovides feedbacktostimulatesustainableliving,whichplaysasateaching environmentthatchangesaccordingtoageandsituation; •distancelearning,usingmoretraditionalformsofeducation,enables stillopenquestionstobeansweredandintegratesalltheknowledge inthestudentportfolio; •thislearningprocessstartswithprimaryeducationandgoesonfor life. “...kidsnolongerrelyonlyonschoolsfortheireducation: thelayerofITembeddedinourdailylifeisprovidingavery responsiveanddiffuseddidacticenvironmentforthemand sustainabilityissuesarepresenteverywhereintheday-to-day environment,fromtheenergysmartmeterdisplayathometo thewaterharvestingcontrolsystemintheneighborhood,from theintermodalmobilityorganizertothedistributedairquality controlscheme...Everythingworksforthemjustlikeareward- basedgametoplay.” Arold,44yearsold,primaryschoolcoach LIFE-LONG SUSTAINABILITYLEARNING Howdoesitwork?Comments Moving •automaticcarswithoutdriver; •dedicatedonlineandmobileapplicationforfullypersonalizedpath; •market-basedservice:partnershipbetweentelecommunications companies,privatetaxisandlocaltransportcompanies “..IlovemyworkandIlovetohaveandgiveallthebestIcan. I’musedtoreachingclientsandIlovetobeefficientandto spendwithcustomersallthetimeneededtogetintuneandin ordertoestablishapleasantrelationship.That’swhyIusually movearoundthecitybytheLuxurytaxiservice,itisbrilliant! Myproviderofferstheserviceincludedinthebusinessmobile account:automaticsupercarswithoutdriversbringyou everywhereaccordingtopersonalizedpathsthatyoucanplan andredefinealongtheway…” Cinthia,45,prêtaporterstylist LUXURYTAXISERVICE CommentsHowdoesitwork? Moving •multi-sitspedal-poweredschoolbusandtransportserviceswith differentseatsandratesfortheneighborhood; •cleanenergyproductionfortransportation; •eco-mindedschoolbusandeducationalaspectoftheservice (strengtheningawareness). “…IhurtmyselfplayingandIhavemyleginplaster.Every morning,whenIgotoschoolwithmyschool-matestheyride thepedalvehicleasusualproducingalotofenergy,whileI’m sittingintheseatswithoutpedalsnearMissMarple,theold neighbourwiththatstrangesmell…I’mlookingforwardto goingriding!...” Fabio,5yearsold,disabledchild MULTI-SITSPEDAL VEHICLES Howdoesitwork? Howdoesitwork? Comments Comments Society Society •findhelpfromthosearoundyou:whoiswhereandavailabletodo what; •localboundsarestrengthenedbymeansofcommunicationtools, intelligentsensorsandgeo-localizationdevices; •activateinstantsupportandclosehelpincaseofneed; •districtpersonalnetworksareestablished. “Imovedyesterday,everythingseemsfreshtome,sadlyagain, mydesklampwasbrokenthismorning,Ishouldchangethe lightbulbimmediately,comeon,Istillhavecommitmentsto fulfillbeforetomorrow.WherecanIbuyabulbnearby?Ijoined thecommunitynetworkwhenImovedhere.MaybeIcanaskfor helpthere…” Li,25 SELFEMPOWERMENT CIRCLES •personalisationofmedicinesisnowadaysastandardpractice; •everybodyhasapersonalID_DNAcardthatcontains:theirgenetic mapandbiologicaldata,butalsotheirdailydiet,theirhabits,their sportingaptitudeandthehistoryoftheirfamily; •everydoctororspecialisthasaccesstoitinordertogetacomplete overviewofthepatient’life; •thecardenablesfullpersonalisationofmedicinesandhealing solutions,combiningpharmaceuticalandsocialremedies. “...MymumsaysthatwhenIwasborn,justbeforegoinghome fromthehospital,shereceivedmypersonalID_DNAcard.Itis averyspecialIdcard:itcontainsallthehistoryofmyfamily anditwillcontainalsomyhistory.SowhenIwillneedsome medicines,thedoctorswillalreadyknoweverythingandthey willbuildaspecialtherapyjustforme...” Paolo,9,primaryschoolstudent ID-DNACARD Promising practice Inrecentyears,wehavewitnessedtheemer- genceofmoresustainableproducts,services andexperimentalbottom-upinitiatives.They havesignalednewhopethatmoresustainable waysoflivingareachievableforall,whilecel- ebratingdiversity,inpost-industrialsocieties. Despitethesedevelopments,existingpromising sustainablelivingpracticesarenotenough.They remaindwarfedbytheunsustainableimpactsof theaverageEuropean’scurrentlifestyles. Toovercomethecurrentchallengesofourun- sustainablelifestyles,theSPREADprojecthas developedfuturescenariosofpossiblesocieties thatsupportmoresustainablewaysofliving.
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4|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 Unsustainablelifestyleimpacts tobeovercomeby2050: Keyfindingsoftheproject’s baselineresearch TheSPREADproject’sjourneytofuturesce- nariosformoresustainablelifestylesbeganby takingstockofexistingknowledgeonsustain- ablelifestyles.Throughthisinitialresearchwe identifiedthechallengesandbarrierstomore sustainablelivingtoday,aswellaspromising trends,driversandopportunitiestoencourage moresustainablewaysoflivinginthefuture. Theresultsofthisbaselineresearchcanbe foundinourprojectreport,“SustainableLife- styles:Today’sFactsandTomorrow’sTrends”. ModernEuropeanlifestylesareunsustainable. Theyhavebecomeassociatedwithoverproduc- tionandoverconsumption.Theimpactsofour lifestylesareputtingtoomuchpressureonour naturalresourcesandhaveadverseenvironmen- tal,economic,socialandhealtheffects. Thereportrevealsthatlifestyleandhousehold consumptionformasignificantpartofsociety’s environmentalburdenasawhole.Inrecent years,sustainablelifestylechoiceshavestarted tobecomeamorerelevantandaccessibleop- tionforsomeEuropeanconsumersthankstoa riseinlocalisedsocialinnovationexperiments, theimprovedsupplyofeco-efficientgoodsand services,andincreasedcoverageofsustainabil- ityissuesinthemediaraisingawarenessinthe publicdebate.Wecallthesesignalsofprogress,
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|5 “promisingpractices”ofmoresustainableliving practices,andtheyformagoodfoundationfor exploringthefutureofsustainablelifestyles. SPREADingsustainablelifestylesinthefuturewill require,ontheonehand,adeeperunderstanding ofhowtoscaleupcurrentpromisingpractices. Ontheother,weneedtoknowhowfarthese practiceswilltakeustowardssustainableliving forall,andwhatkindsofnewcreativesolutions, currentlyunknownor“unthinkable”,mightgetus there. Ourresearchsuggeststhatinordertomake progressintheseareas,thatfocusshouldbe placedonstrategiestoassist,motivateand inspirebehaviouralchange,aswellastherole ofinfrastructureandenablingsustainableliving environments. Thescenariosforsustainablelifestyles2050 presentfourdifferentprototypesofpossible futuresocietiesthatallsupportmoresustainable lifestyles.Ourlifestylescenariosarebasedonthe foundationsofsustainablesystems,andexplore differentoptionsinanattempttoacknowledge thediversityamongEuropeancitizens. ThecriticalimpactsofcurrentEuropean lifestylesare: Foodanddrink,privatetransportandhous- ingtogetheraccountfor70-80%ofEurope’s environmentalimpactsstemmingfromfinal consumption(Tukker,A.,G.Huppes,etal. (2006)). Meatanddairyconsumptionaloneaccount foralmostonequarter(24%)ofallfinalcon- sumptionimpacts–byfarthelargestshare inthefoodanddrinksector(Weidemaetal. 2008). Domesticheating,waterconsumption,appli- anceandelectronicsuseaccountsfor40% ofEurope’stotalenergyconsumption(with heatingaloneaccountingfor67%ofhouse- holdenergyconsumptionintheEU-27)(EEA 2010). CarownershipintheEU-27increasedby morethanonethird(35%)intheperiod between1990and2007(EEA2010)andEU driverscurrentlyownonethirdoftheworld’s 750millioncars(IEA2010). IntheEU-27,approximately60%ofadults andover20%ofschool-agechildrenare overweightorobese.Coronaryheartdiseases (CHD)oftenassociatedwithfattyfoodsand smoking,remainthesinglemostcommon causeofdeathintheEU(WHO2011). Reference:Formoreinformation,pleasereadthefullSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050baselinereport,availabletodownloadfromwww.sustainable-lifestyles.eu. Consuming Society LivingMoving
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6|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 Ourscenariosonsustainablelifestyles TheSPREADSustainableLifestyles2050pro- jectusesascenariomethodologytoexplore thediversewaysforpotentiallifestylepatterns toevolve,andhowthisevolutioncanovercome currentharmfulenvironmentalandsociallife- styleimpacts.Oursustainablelifestylescenarios arestoriesofpossiblefutureswheresocieties supportmoresustainablewaysofliving.The scenariospresentdifferentoptionsforsustaina- blelivingchoicesthatwillsuitthediverseneeds, desiresandculturalconsiderationsofcitizens fromacrossEurope.Thefourscenariospresent differingpathwaystoreachalternativesocieties wheresustainablewaysoflivingaresupported. Scenariosarenotpredictionsorforecastsbut insteadseektoexplorethemostextremepos- sibilities,inordertohelpdecision-makersplanfor thecurrently“unthinkable”.Inordertodevelop storiesofthefuture,wefirstidentifiedthemost criticalvariables–thecriticaldriversnecessary tocreatesustainablelifestyles.Someofthe elementsofourscenariostoriesmightsound improbableatfirst.Theaimofourscenariosisto helpthinktheunthinkableandplanforsustain- ableoptionsinthefuture. Thefocusofourscenariosliesprimarilyon people’slifestyles.Aspeoplelivewithinasoci- ety,andwithinglobalandlocalsystems,wealso identifysystemboundariessuchas,geopolitics, nationalpolitics,ortechnologyrelatedtoeach futurescenario.Itisclearthatthesefactorshave immensedirectandindirectinfluenceonlife- styles.However,heretheyaredealtwithonlyto theextentthattheydirectlyexplainchangesin lifestylepatterns. Wehavechosenaspecificscenariomethodol- ogytoexploredifferentoptionsfornewEuropean socialmodelsthatencouragesustainablelife- stylesin2050.Wefurtheroutlineourmethodol- ogyhere: 1.Ourscenariosaimtodemonstratehow varioussituationalandbehaviouralfactors contributetothedevelopmentofsustainable lifestyles.Scenariosformapowerfultoolfor translatinghowmegatrends,suchasclimate change,rapidtechnologicaladvancements, andchangingdemographicpatternscould changeoureverydaylivesandthedecisions wemakeconcerninghowwelive,moveand consumeinthefuture. 2.Ourscenariosenableustoanalysethe potentialofcurrentpromisingsustainableliv- ingpracticeinrelationtothevariousfactors Situationalandbehaviouralfactorsinfluencinghumanbehaviour Source:Defra,SustainableLifestylesFramework,2011. Influencinghuman behaviour Environmental change BehaviouralfactorsSituationalfactors Geography Culture Infrastructure SocialLearning SocialNetworks Information Accessto Capital Institutional Framework Leadership Altruism Awareness Self-efficacy Values Perceptions Norms Beliefs Experience Attitudes Habits Identity Knowledge
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|7 Thebackcastingmethod Inordertoestablishfoursustainablelifestylescenarios forEuropein2050,wehaveusedamethodologycalled backcasting.Thebackcastingmethodallowsustoad- dresstheriskthatstartingfromthepresentmayleadto concentratingonchallengesthatareirrelevantforthe futureweaimtoachieve. Backcastinghelpsustosetourcompassestowards sustainablefuturesbydefiningsustainablelifestyles, andtheirelements,asfixedvariablegoals.Thisnorma- tivegoalasastartingpointforthescenarioshelpsus toseethediscrepanciesbetweencurrentrealitiesand desirablefutures,butalsohelpsustounderstand,where disruptivechangesaremostneeded.Backcastingex- ploresalternativepathwaystosuccessfullyreachingthe desiredfuturegoals. Ourpremiseisthattherearefactorsthatsetlimitsto meaningfulfuturelivingsuchas: limitedglobalcrudeoilreservesthatforceproduc- tiontodeclineatsomepoint(peakoil) alimited“carbonbudget”ofgreenhousegas concentrationintheatmosphere Exceedingtheseorotherrelevantlimitswouldcre- atefeedbackeffectsthatwouldverylikelyreducethe resourcesandcapabilitiesavailabletopeoplelivingin thecomingdecades.Hencethescopeofdesirable,but achievablefutureswouldalsobemorelimitedinthefu- ture.Togeneratefuturelifestylescenariosthatarerele- vantandrobust,itisimperativetorecognizetheselimits. Cylindermodelofconstructingpossiblefuturescenarios Conemodelofconstructingmeaningfulfuturescenarios drivingalternativesustainable futures.Throughscenarios weaimtoexplorethewaysin whichpromisingnichestrate- giesformoresustainableliving couldgrowintowidespread practicesthathavethepo- tentialtodecreasetheoverall environmentalstressonour societies. 3.Ourscenariosprovideastart- ingpointforidentifyingoppor- tunityspacesforthedevelop- mentofcreativestrategiesto notonlymainstreamcurrent sustainablepractices,butalso todevelopnewsolutionsfor moresustainablelivingso- cieties.Thescenariosoffer insightsintohowdifferentdriv- ersofchangeinteract,shape lifestylesandhelpinidentifying theroleofvariousgatekeep- erswhofacilitatethechange throughscalingupandmulti- plyingthecurrent,promising practicesondifferentstagesof development. Spaceofopportunities Usualfutureperspective Futureperspectivewithsystemboundaries Spaceofopportunities 2050Now 2050Now Carbonbudget Peakoil Core vision
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8|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 Thesustainablelifestyle=8000kgperannum Inordertocreatescenariosforsustainablelife- stylesin2050,weneeddefinitionsandcommon targetstospecifywhatismeantby”sustainable lifestyles”.IntheSPREADprojectwehavede- finedthematerialfootprintofasustainablelife- styleat8000kgperannum(p.a.)foroneperson. Thisquantifiedtargetformsthefundamental assumptiononwhicheachofourfourdeveloped andpreviouslydescribedscenariosisbuilt.Our scenariosdescribewhat8000kglivingcanlook likeinfourdiversefuturesocieties. The8000kgp.a.ofmaterialfootprintperperson isbasedontheworkofMichaelLettenmeier, StefanBringezu,FriedrichSchmidt-Bleeketal fromtheWuppertalInstituteforClimate,Environ- mentandEnergyonasafeandsustainablelevel ofnaturalresourceuse. Thematerialfootprintisatooltomeasureand manageoroptimizetheresourceconsumptionof ourlifestyles,includingtheproductsandproduc- tionprocessesbehindthem(i.e.intheareasof consuming,moving,housingandhealth).Inthis context,oursustainablelifestylematerialfootprint meanstheuseofrenewableandnon-renewable materialresources(excl.waterandair)plusthe erosioncausedbyagricultureandforestry.Itcov- ersthewholelifecyclefromtheextractionofraw materialstotheprocessingindustry,distribution, consumption,recycling,anddisposal. Theideaofthematerialfootprintistoprovide acomprehensiveandunderstandabletoolto reducedifferentkindsofpresentandfutureenvi- ronmentalchallenges(forexampleintheareasof food,mobility,housingandhealth). WhenthematerialfootprintofanaverageEu- ropeanlifestyledropsfrom27000–40000(ap- proximatecurrentaveragelifestylefootprintper person)to8000kgperyear,theenvironmental andresultingsocialimpactsofourlifestyleswill dropandchangeconsiderably.Thematerial footprintthusservesasatooltocomprehensively directlifestylestolevelswithinplanetarybounda- riesasdescribede.g.byJohanRockströmand otherscientists(seebelow).Italsoprovidesaway tomeasureprogressandmilestonesofsuccess towardsourfuturesustainablelifestylegoals. Thematerialfootprintof8000kgp.a.consists ofhouseholdgoods,foodandbeverages,eve- rydaymobilityandtourism,electricity,heating andhousing.However,thecompositionofthe footprintisnotsimilarforeveryone.Theshareof consumptioninamaterialfootprintof8000kg p.a.candifferbasedonthevalues,needsand aspirationsofeachperson’suniquelifestyle.For example,somepeoplemayaccumulatemoreof theirfootprintthroughmobilitywhileothersmove less,butliveinalargerapartment.Noteveryone needstolivethesameway,but–atleastonaver- age–everyonemustlivewithinboundariesofour planetarysysteminordertorealizeoursustain- ablefuture.
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|9 Earth-systemprocess Current value Boundary value Climatechange Atmosphericcarbondioxide concentration(ppmbyvolume) 387350 Biodiversityloss Extinctionrate(numberof speciespermillionperyear) >10010 Biochemical Anthropogenicnitrogen removedfromtheatmosphere (millionsoftonnesperyear) 12135 Landuse Landsurfaceconvertedto cropland(percent) 11,715 Freshwater Globalhumanconsumption ofwater(km3 /yr) 26004000 Ozonelayer Stratosphericozone concentration(Dobsonunits) 283276 Reference:RockströmJ.etall.(2011) Humandevelopment Current Value Goal2050 HumanDevelopedIndex (measureoflifeexpectancy, literacy,educationand standardsofliving) 0,630,77 Yearsofeducationinless developedcountries (averageyears) 68 Lifeexpectancy (globalaverage) 70>75 GINIcoefficient (Measureoftheinequality: avalue0expressingtotal equalityandavalue1 maximalinequality.) 0,70,55 Globalpopulation (billion) 78,9 Reference:UNDP(2011) Environmentalandsocial indicatorsincludedin the8000kgp.a.lifestyle: EnvironmentalboundariesSocialboundaries 2.Socialboundaries Weusepopulationgrowthandhumandevelop- mentindicesbasedonstatisticsandresearchby UNDPandUNPopulationDivision.Thesesocial systemboundaries(thegoalsfor2050)arethe minimumrequirementsforsociallysustainable development.Thematerialfootprintboundaryof 8000kgp.a.foroneperson’slifestyleisbasedon theworldwiderecognitionofthesesocialsystem boundaries. 1.Environmentalboundaries Wedrawontheplanetaryboundariesframe- workdevelopedbyagroupofearthsystemand environmentalscientistsledbyJohanRockström fromtheStockholmResilienceCentre.Duetothe complexityofquantifyingtheseplanetarybound- aries,weonlyincludedsixoftheoriginalninein thebackgroundconsiderationsforthescenarios. Asthequantificationoftheindicatorsusedby Rockström’sgrouponalifestylelevelwouldhave beenextremelycomplex,weusedthematerial footprint(seeabove)asanindicatorforthevari- ouskindsofenvironmentalimpactscausedby anykindofmaterialandenergyuse.
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10|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 Fourscenarios,twocriticaluncertainties Pandemictechnology Globallythereareafewdominanttechnologiesforanytaskorhuman need.Technologiesforbuilding,transportation,energyproduction, andcommunicationexisteverywhereandlooksimilar.There’sfierce competitionontheglobalmarketsandcommercialdominanceyields hugerewards.Technologyin2011couldbecalledpandemic.Every- one’sonfacebookanddrivesacar(producedbyafewglobalmanu- facturers)thatrunsonpetrolordieselfuel(globallyexchangedgoods). Human-centrism Ahuman-centricsocietypivotsaround wideningtheuseofhumancapitalinall itsforms.Bothcivicandpublicuseof skillsisvalued.Everyonehassomething valuabletogiveortodo.Society’ssuc- cessdependsoneveryonecontributing andoneveryone’sabilitytobegood citizens,familymembers,neighbours andprofessionals.Thereissomedivi- sionoflabour,butself-improvement throughleisureisalsoverymuchappre- ciated:e.g.throughfamilytime,active consumption,civicactivities,handicraft, arts.Youdowhatyoucan–andwhat youfeelmotivatedtodo. Meritocracy Ameritocraticsocietycirclesaround professionalskills.Themostcom- merciallyvaluableprofessionalskills aretheenginesoftheeconomy. Membersofthoseprofessionsare paidaccordingly.Policiesandstruc- turesarecustomizedtofacilitatethe workoftheleadingindustriesand professions.Divisionoflabourisat itsextreme.Youdoonlywhatyou’re reallygoodat. Endemictechnology Thetools,infrastructures,andsolutionsweusearebornandgrown locally:technologyemergesoutoflocalconditions,resources,and peculiarities.Locallivingconditionsruletechnology.Wherethereis wood,housesarebuiltoftimber–wherethedaysareextremelyhot, peopleliveintents.Thecorpusofglobalscienceandtechnologyis wide,yetapplicationsarehighlylocal.Theeconomyisdrivenbyef- ficiencyandinnovationsgainedthroughthinkingandactinglocally. Inordertoestablishfourscenariosthatwould significantlydifferfromeachother,wedefined attheoutsetfourfuturelandscapesthrough whichthescenarioswouldbeconstructed. Thiswasdonebycombiningthetwocriticalvari- ables,whichwecalluncertainties.Weusethese uncertaintiestodefinelifestylesandsocieties. Thetwouncertaintiesandassumptionsabout themunderliningourworkwerethat: Technologyiseitherpandemicorendemic. Society’sgoverningprincipleiseitherhuman- centricormeritocratic. Bycombiningthesetwosetsofalternatives,we reachedourfourpossiblefuturelandscapes.The followingaredescriptionsofwhatthesefuture landscapeswouldlooklikeonthesocietallevel. Thesetwocriticaluncertaintiesdefinedthemain driversshapingthescenariosandthescenario process.Atlaterstageoftheworkwedefined fouradditionaldriversforeachscenario.Withthe helpofthesedriverswewereabletogivearea- sonableexplanationonhowsustainablelifestyles andthesustainablesocietycanbereachedin eachscenario.
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|11 Singular SuperChampions LocalLoops Governing theCommons Empathetic Communities Pandemictechnology Human-centrismMeritocracy Endemictechnology
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12|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 Thedevelopmentoffuturescenariosformore sustainablelifestylesin2050buildsonallprevi- ousworkintheproject.Theresearchconducted oncriticallifestyleimpactsaswellasthebarri- ersanddriversimpedingandencouragingmore sustainablewaysoflivingprovideasolidbasis forcreatingpathwaystowardspossiblefutures wherethesechallengescanbeovercomeand opportunitiesforimprovedlivingrealised. Sustainablelifestyle scenarios2050–the“makingof” Thecreationofalternativefuturesforsustainable lifestylestoasfaras2050wascompletedinfive phases. 1.Definingtheframework(axesofcriticalun- certainties)forthecreationofthescenario quadrants:Baselineresearchandfindingsof theSPREADDelphisurveyofexpertviews. 2.Definingfourscenariolandscapes. 3.Exploringthepathwaystosustainableliving: BackcastingworkshopinTuusula,Finland. 4.Qualifyingandquantifyingthescenariosand pathways:Research&2ndDelphisurvey. 5.Finalisingthescenariostoriesandvisualisa- tions. Howdidwegethere? PhaseOne: Definingthescenarioframework Thedevelopmentofourscenarioframework includedtheanalysisoftheproject’sbaselinere- searchandidentificationofpromisingpracticeon sustainablelifestyles,aswellasfurtherinputand analysisfromacrosscuttinggroupofrelevant stakeholdersandexperts. InNovember2011,followingthebaselinere- search,aselectiveDelphiSurveywasconducted amongstacrosscuttinggroupofrelevantstake- holdersandexperts.Thesurveyaimedatfinding afeasibleframeworkforthebackcastingwork- shop.Thesurveyquestionnairewasformulated basedonthefindingsoftheSPREADbaseline report,theSPREADlaunchconferencereport andpromisingpracticescardsfromtheSPREAD Visioningworkshop.Around40peopleoutof110 invitedrespondedtothesurvey. Thesurveyquestionnaireincludedaformulation ofassumptionsor“arguments”thatparticipants wereaskedtoevaluate(basedonassumptions probability,desirabilityandimportance)andcom- ment(explainingwhatdriverswouldcausean assumptiontoberealisedorfailtoberealised). Insteadofaskingforcommentsoncurrenttrends, therespondentswererequestedtodescribe thingstheyseeinplacein2050,inaworldwhere sustainablelifestylesarethenormacrossEurope. Phasetwo: Definingfourscenariolandscapes Basedontheanalysisoftheresearchand thesurvey,wewereabletodefinetwocritical variablesoruncertaintiesthatwecombinedto producefouralternativefuturelandscapes.We didthisusingtheprinciplesofsystemsthinking, whichhelpedusmaptherelevantsituationaland behaviouralfactorsinfluencinghumanbehaviour. Thetwocriticaluncertaintiesaretechnologyand asociety’sgoverningprinciple.Wewereableto dividetechnologyintoeitherpandemicorendem- ic,andthegoverningprincipleofthesocietyinto eithermeritocraticorhuman-centred.Bycombin- ingtheseuncertainties,wecreatedthescenario quadrants.Thesewereelaboratedintofouralter- nativefuturelandscapes,whichformedthebasis forourworkinthebackcastingworkshop. Phasethree: Exploringthepathwaystosus- tainableliving:Backcastingwork- shopinTuusula,Finland The”Countingbackwardsworkshop”washeld onthe24-25thofNovember2011inTuusula, Finland.There,fouralternativescenariopathways from2012to2050werecreatedwiththehelpof
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|13 54participantsfrom16countries,representing stakeholdergroupsfromstart-upbusinessesto governments,multinationalcompanies,NGOs, researchers,entrepreneurs,designersand independentpolicyexperts.Theseparticipants weredividedintofourgroupsandeachdefined analternativescenarionarrativeandpathways tosustainablelifestylesinEuropebetween2012 and2050. Intheworkshopthebackcastingmethodwas usedtoexplorethepathwaystomoresustaina- blelivingandtofurtherdefineeachalternativefu- turescenario.Startingwiththealternativefuture landscapescreatedinphasetwo,participants “countedbackwards”fromthe2050futuresto today.Eachgroupwaschallengedtoco-create thepathwaystotheiralternativefuturewhere sustainable8000kglifestylesaresocietalnorms –Whatwouldhavetohavehappened2040,2025 and2015inordertoreachdifferent8000kglife- stylesinthisscenario?Specialfocuswasputon criticallifestyleimpactissues(e.g.food,mobility, housingandhealth)aswellasdriversoflifestyle choices,suchasenablinginfrastructureandbe- haviorchangestrategiesthatwerehighlightedin theSPREADbaselineresearch. Phasefour: Qualifyingandquantifyingthe scenariosandpathways: Research&Delphisurvey Toqualifythescenariostoriesandpathwaysfor- mulatedinphasethree,asecondDelphisurvey, withstakeholdersandexperts,wasconducted. Theaimofthesecondsurveywastogather additionalassumptionsandargumentsforeach scenario.Respondentswereaskedtocomment fromtheperspectiveofhisorherexpertise. Surveyresultswerefedintoareviseddraftofthe scenarios. Thescenariodraftswerefurthertestedand quantifiedthroughtheSPREADPeople’sForum, whichwecall“iFuture”.iFutureenabledusto explorethescenarioswith“realpeople”from acrossEurope,withfocusgroupsassembled infourEuropeancountriesfromJanuary-March 2012(Finland,Germany,HungaryandSpain).In theiFutureworkshopstheSPREADprojectwas abletoconnectthescenariostoriestopeo- ples’realassumptions,aspirationsandideas about“thegoodlife”andtheirownsustainable lifestyles,wherethesizeofindividualmaterial footprintsdonotexceed8000kgp.a. Phasefive: Finalisingthescenariostories andvisualisations Inthefinalphase,thescenarioswereadvanced tofinalstoriesandvisualisationstoshowwhat sustainablelifestylesin2050couldlooklikewere created.Atthisstage,thescenarioswerefurther elaboratedontomakethedifferencesineach alternativefuturesocietyexplicitwiththeidentifi- cationoffourdriversofchangeforeachscenario. Furtherfocuswasputondefiningwhatlifeislike fordifferentpeopleineachscenarioandhow environmentalandsocialchangeshaveimpacted theirlives,orbecomecatalystsforbehaviour change.
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14|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 Fourscenariosto sustainablelifestyles 2012–2050
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|15 SingularSuperChampions
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16|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 SingularSuper Champions AnageingEuropereceivesatransformativeand rejuvenatingspark,inordertosurviveasChina beganitsstridestowardsgainingtotalglobal dominanceincleantechmarketsatthestartof the2010decade.Atalmostthelastmoment,in 2015,theEUwageredallofitspoliticalpower andpublicresourcestoforcecompaniesand consumersintotheeraofanewindustrialrevo- lution.Developingnewmaterialsandbringing aboutarevolutioninproductiontechnologies comesaboutthroughincentivesandpolitical measures.Europeannationsagreetoremoveall subsidiesfromindustriesoperatingwithinef- ficientlegacytechnologiesintheenergyand resourceintensivefields.Allavailablebudgetin thememberstatesisinvestedinmassiveR&D centres,demonstrationprojectsandespeciallyin education. Thiswasnotapain-freeroadtosuccess.Revo- lutionisingtechnologicallyandecologicallyout- datedproductionprocesses,aswellas,cutting subsidiesfromfuelandmanyothercommodities meansthatmanypeoplelosttheirjobs.Alltrans- portation,andespeciallysinglecarusebecame muchmoreexpensiveandallassociatedhous- ingcostsrose.Thebigreformdidn’ttreatevery citizenorregionequally.Thiscreatedturmoilin decliningregionsinthe2020’sbut,themasses wereforcedtoadapt.Simultaneousreformsin welfareprovisionsduetobudgetcutsdrovemany Europeanstomigrateandsearchforincomeop- portunitiesfromthrivingmetropolitanregionsthus speedinguptheconcentrationofthepopulation andsourcesofwealth. Biginvestmentspaidoff:Scientificbreakthroughs inmaterialtechnologymadetheup-cyclingof rawmaterialsprofitable.Firmsinthecradleto cradlebusinessstartedtomakesolidprofitsin thelatterhalfof2020’s.Accesstotheconsump- tioncycleandwhatwaspreviouslycalledwaste becamethekeydeterminantofsuccesstothe largemultinationalfirms.Newserviceanddis- tributionmodelswerecreated.Theyputnew emphasisonbuildinglastingrelationshipswith customers.Thiswastheonlywaytomakethe valuableresourcesstoredinmaterialproducts returntoproduction.Consumersexperiencedthis throughservicesthatequippedthemconstantly withup-to-datemodelsofthegoodstheyhave onceboughtaccessto.Forsome,thesetechno- logicallydrivenlifestylegoodscompensatedand replacedtheirpastneedsforspacioussingle- familyhousesandmodestlypricedcars. SingularSuperChampionsisasocietyinwhich success,bothforindividualsandsocietiesalike, isgainedthroughpersistentfaithineducation andenterprise.Injobmarketsexpertiseiseve- rythingbecausetechnologydevelopsfastand theonlysourceofsuccessintheeraofresource scarcityisexpertknowledge. Everyonehasaccesstobasiceducation,learn- ingandknowledge.Butbeyondthatthereisa moralobligationforcontinuousdevelopmentof personalandprofessionalskillsthatdrivesus- tainablesocieties.Leisuretimeisthereforequite differentfromleisuretimein2012.Itisspenton learningandeducationthatisself-centredyet AlternativeSustainableSociety1: Supporting8000kgSustainable Lifestyles InthescenarioSingularSuperChampionsEu- ropehasmadetheleaptoanewtypeofsus- tainable,competitiveandequitableeconomy: aresultofnumeroustreaties,declarationsand officialgoalsstartingfrom2035.Theleapis achievedwiththedeploymentofmarketinstru- mentsthatalsoradicallyreformmanycondi- tionsthathaveshapedEuropeanlifestylesover thepastdecades.Cleantechandupcycling businessesflourishassustainabilityhasbecome thebusinessopportunityofthecentury.Europe ofSingularSuperChampionsisasocietythat celebratesanethosoflearning,achievingand self-mastery. Singular SuperChampions LocalLoops Governing theCommons Empathetic Communities Pandemictechnology Human-centrism Meritocracy Endemictechnology
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|17 Whatchangesbetween2012and2050? EducationEmbeddedintoeverydaylifeandpractices,lifelong insteadofshortcyclesinthebeginningoflife. Individualizedandcommoditisized.Basisofwelfare provision. WorkHumanresourceshighlightwork.Talentisconcen- tratedinglobalorganizations.Entrepreneurvs.super talentedmultinationalsclass. City10-15highlyurbanizedmetropolisesinEurope. Extremelydense.Lotsofnewinfrastructure.New specialisedareasofexcellence. HealthPreventativepublichealthcare.Rationaldiets.Self- diagnosis. LivingLocationcompensatessizeoftheflat.Newmaterials anddesign.Pricedrivesdensity. FoodPriceandhealthefficientdiet.Largescaleorganic production. MobilityNewrailsystemswithinandbetweenmetropolises. Personalizedrapidtransportsystems.Smartmobility solutions.Highprices. ConsumingMeaningsandsymbolsgetconsumedmorethan products.Educationandself-projectedme.Price mechanism. EconomyLargemultinationalfirms.Efficiency.Competition. Eco-industrialrevolution.Standardizedtransparent data Senseof security Fromtechnologicalprogress.Transparency.Surveil- lance.Individualchoices.Thoughtleaders. Leasure time Investinginowneducationandtraining. pragmatic.Themostaffluentpeople,TheSingu- larSuperChampions,havetranscendedmaterial consumption.Insteadofconsuming,theymake investmentsinthemselvesthroughstudyingnew skills,bothtoimproveprofessionallyandtobe- comechampionsoftheirindividuallifestyle. Howaresustainable lifestylesachieved? Theroadtowardssustainabilitystartedwithpeo- plehavingtopaymoreforthenecessitiesand luxuriesthatarelessexpensivein2012. Duetoextremeurbanisation,peopleliveineven moredensecitiesthantheydidinthe2010’s.As theimportanceofcitiesandtheircentresriseat thesametime,themosttalentedpeopleaspireto beinthedowntownareasofprogressintheme- tropolis.Thisraisesthepricesofapartmentsand locationstartstocompensateforspace–which leadstomoresustainablehousingalternativesfor themainstream. Withregardstomobility,risingresourceprices startedtoinfluencepeople’sbehaviourevenmore directly.Asthepriceofgashitnewpeaks,someof thepooresthouseholdsendedupsacrificingsig- nificantamountsoftheirincomefortheirpersonal mobility.Thisdroveurbanisation,whichagain ledtopeopleneedingtousetheirresourcesfor mobilityless.Onlythemostwealthypeoplehad thepossibilitytotravelexceedinglyasairtravel wasoutofreachformany.Mobilityingeneralhas decreaseddramaticallyovertheyears.Thepainful measuresprovidedacatalystforrapidchange. Sustainabilityhasbecomethebusinessopportu- nityofthecentury.Itbreathesnewlifeintoentre- preneurship,newbusinessmodels,andpeople experimentwithvariousaspectsofsustainable livingathomewhichsavesmoneyintheshort termandprovesresilientinthelongterm. Aspeoplestartedtogetaccesstodetailed dataontheirownbehaviourthroughtheirsmart phonesinrealtime,andscienceprovidesin- creasingamountsofinformationregarding healthyandsustainablealternatives,people startedrationalizingtheirdiets.Insteadoftaste, nutritionbecamethekeydriverofday-to-day foodchoices. Inadditiontopricedriverschangingtheways peoplebehave,technologicalinnovationhas providedmanysustainablechoicesandalterna- tivesnotavailablein2012.Newmaterialsmade itpossibletobuildhousesthatareextremely energyefficient.Breakthroughsintechnology enableretrofittingandnewconstructionasvi- ablewaystoprovidesustainablelivingpossibili- ties.Thepost-oilera,inturn,changedcarsinto mobilesolutionsforelectricity.Locallyproduced renewableenergyisstoredinidlecarbatteries whencarsareparkedInasocietyofSingular SuperChampionssustainabilityisaccomplished throughchangesinbehaviourpatternsandcon- sumptionpracticesandconsumerchoicesalong withtechnologicalinnovations. SingularSuperChampionsscenario narrative–howdiditallhappen? »TheEuropeanGreenNewDeal »Transparencygetsthepricesright »Theupcyclingeconomy »Learning,notearning Thesedriversaredepictedaseventsonthetimeline. Whatislifelikein SingularSuperChampions
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18|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 TheEuropeanGreenNewDeal Transparencygetsthepricesright Theupcyclingeconomy Learning,notearning 2015:EUprimeministersconcludethatreformsofunprecedented scopeneedtobeimplementedinallEUcountriestopreventthem fromfallingintoapermanentstateofzerogrowth.Evidence-based policy-makinggainsprominenceandbringspoliticsandresearch closertogether. 2015:InChina,there’sanoutbreakof problemsrelatedtoclimatechange. Naturalcatastrophes,includingdrought, eliminateagrowingshareofcrops,caus- ingfoodpricestorisedramatically. 2015:Thebeginningofthefinancialyear startedwitharemarkableboominrenewa- blesinemergingmarkets.Thevitalityof renewablescomeslargelyfromavibrant privatesector. 2019:Afraidofcitizensgrowingrestless,leaders oftheCommunistpartyinChinaannounceanew five-yearplanwhichisaboutinvestingagreat shareofChina’smassivedollarreservesinthe clean-techsector,intowhichithasalreadypoured aconsiderableamountofmoneyoverthepast10 years. 2020:Thereispressuretorevolu- tionisetechnologicallyandecologi- callyoutdatedproductionprocesse andeliminateexpensiveandharmf incentives.Economicsubsidies(e.g fuel)willbecutandecologicalcost willbeinternalizedinprices. “Educationis everywhereindaily life.Kidscanlog intoanyobject andaccessthe so-called‘situated educationpro- grammes’and learnflexiblyall throughtheday.” “Wouldyouliketolearn somethingnew”asksthe newcomputerprogram Ijustbought.Allaround Europewelearnthesame thingsfromstate-of-the-artsoftware. 2016:InDenmarkandNorwaycom- prehensiveeducationalreformsaimat improvinglearningcapacitythrough movingprimaryeducationpartlyout- sidetheclassroom. Meandmywifearehappy thatour5-year-olddaugh- tergotacceptedintoa specialistmathsschool fortheverytalented.This meanstalenthunterswill noticeherinnotime. 2015 Ijustboughtanappthat allowsmetotrackmy consumption.Mypersonal purchasehistoryismyown propertynow! 2018:Peopleallaround Europeinvestinlarge firmsthatcompeteover hegemonyinsustainable technologies. 2018:Acoalitionofthe5000 biggestenterprisesbasedin theEUlaunchesaninitiativeto awardjointdegrees.Leadership andcompetitivenessarenur- turedthroughinternationalex- amsandotherlearningevents includinge.g.competitions, whichareseenasthebestway toprovidestudentswiththe skillstheyneed. Schoolprogramsintegrating indailyactivities Diffusedlearningembedded ineverydayproducts It’ssocoolthatthelunch cafeatourworkserves foodforhealthyandcost- efficientdiets.It’sthehot- testfoodtrendaroundand nowIdon’thavetovisit thecoolestareasintown toenjoyit.It’righthere, whereIwork!
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|19 2021:Newcompetitivenessmechanismsareintroducedinthe Eurozone.GovernmentssupportR&Dactivitiestoexploreeco- logicalproductionmethods. 2022:Desertecattractssolarcompaniesalloverthe worldtoconquerspotsintheSahara.Oneofthelargest firmsinthesectorannouncesthattheywillstartproviding transparentinformationontheproductioncycle,energy andnaturalresourceconsumptiononalltheirproducts. 2024:Planstoshifttheemphasisofwelfareprogrammes graduallytowardssupportingyoungpeopleandeducation passesatanEUsummit.Onthebasisofgoodexamplesfrom Denmark,itisalsoagreedthatbasiceducationshouldbe reformedtoincludemoretrainingonskillsforlife,e.g.adopt- inghealthylifestyles. 2022:ThemajorityofEUmemberstates introducenewcross-cuttingroadpricingfor allroadsduetotheneedtocompensatefor lossesinfueltaxrevenuesthatareattrib- utedtoincreasedvehicleenergyefficiency andashifttoelectriccars.Asaresult, peoplestarttoprefershortcommuting distances,service-richneighborhoodsand goodlocationoverlargelivingspace. 2024:Possessinghalfofworld’sphospho- rusreserves,Moroccostartstoregulate salesofthis“newgold”.Thisinturnleads tounforeseenhikeinfertilizerprices. Decreaseduseeventuallystartstoaffect annualcropyields. 2025:Thebiggestcompaniesinfood,construc- tion,ICT,manufacturingandcarindustriesagree ontransparencystandardsondataconcerning theenergyandnaturalresourceconsumptionof theirproductionprocesses.TheEUcountries, ChinaandUSAsoonadoptthesestandardsas basisforlegislation,whichmeansthatpractically allproductionandserviceshavetomeetsimilar transparencystandards. “Formeronlinegameslike BiodivBattleorSimSust turnedouttobepopular sustainabilitygamesthat spreadeco-consciousness betterthananycampaign everdid.” Throughtransparentin- formationandincreased education,I’mveryknowl- edgeableaboutwhatis healthytoeat,howmuch exerciseisneededandwhat arethesymptomsofdifferent diseases.Healthcareismore preventative. Someofmyemploy- eeshavetospend 40%ontravelaslong distancecommut- ingandrisinggaspriceshave reallyhittheirbudgets.Most ofthemhavealreadymadethe movetopublictransportand manyareconsider- ingmovingcloser toouroffice. 2020:Peoplecelebratethe launchofthehigh-speedrail networkthathasbeenexpanded tocoverallroutesbetweenEu- rope’smajorcities.Thesetrains starttopushairlinecompanies outofthemarket. 20202025 MycousinMichaelbought afarmlastweek.The globalriseoffoodpricesis turningpeopleto- wardsagricultural careers. Educativesimula- tiongames Assistedfamily learningprocesses Banksstarttoprovidenewenergysolu- tionsforpeopletofinancetheenergy retrofittingoftheirhouse. 2023:Globaldigitalintegrationbringsproductcyclesandsystemscloser together,enablingnewinnovationstobeintroducedeasilyacrosstheglobe. Thisappliestohouseholds,too,asspecifictechnologicalmonitoringpro- grammessupportindividualsinreducingfoodwastetopracticallyzero.
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20|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 TheEuropeanGreenNewDeal Transparencygetsthepricesright Theupcyclingeconomy Learning, notearning 2028:Withthehelpoftransparentproduct datapeoplelearntounderstandhowindi- vidualconsumerchoicesinfood,housing, mobilitybuildtheiroveralllifestyle. 2025:Thankstomajorleapsintechnology,thefirst cost-effectivelarge-scaleupcyclingprocessesare launchedintheEuropeanmarkets.Newenterprises starttodeveloparoundtheprovisionanddistribution ofresources.Theyleaseproductsinordertomake surethattheyretainownershipofresourcesusedin production.Cradle-to-cradleisthefastestgrowing businessandareaofresearch. “…Wehave carefullypre- paredasus- tainabletripto China.Weare goingbyboat andarestart- ingtolearn thelanguage sothatwecan communicate withthepeo- plewhowill hostusthere.” 2028:China,USAandtheEUmakemassiveinvestments inclean-techthattogetherwithdrasticpricehikesin scarcenaturalresourcesbringthepricesofecologically sustainablegoodsbelowthepricesoftheirunsustain- able,resource-intensiverivalsacrossallsectors.These threeglobalpowersdrivesustainableindustry. OneofthesuburbsinBilbao wasrebuiltwiththenew- eststate-of-the-artenergy efficientmaterials.Afriend ofminejustmovedthere. Itisattractingpeoplewho previouslycouldnothave imaginedlivinginsucha location. 20252030 Ieatonlyfoodthat’shyper- efficientintermsofnutrition levels.Cabbages, lentilsandberriesarekey elementsinmydiet.Itjust makessense! 2026:Flyingchangesdramaticallyasthemajor airlinesagreeonminimumserviceefficiency standards.Planescannowonlyflywithover 90%passengercapacity;otherwisetheymust re-scheduleorpostponetake-off–unless someoneiswillingtopayfull-priceforthe vacantseats. WhenIflewtoBerlinlast month,Ihadtowait11 hoursuntiltheflightwas fullyoccupied.Regardless, itcostmeamonths’ssal- ary,asaviationtaxationis steeperthanever. Slowtourismactivities Vacationsarelongerbut lessfrequent 2025:Anewsmartgridsolutionisan- nouncedthatconnectstheUK,Germany andFrance’senergyconsumption.The amountofenergyusedinhouseholds dropssignificantly. 2030:Mostofthemajoreconomicpapersacknowledgethat cradle-to-cradleisthemostefficientproductionmethodre- gardlessofproductionsectorormaterialsrequired.Itquickly reachesallpartsofproductionsystems.Asasignificant proportionofusableresourcesisownedbyusers,theyalso becomepartofthesenetworks. 2030:Thankstoinformaticsapps, educationalsoftwareandonline learningnetworks,peopleare empoweredtomakeexcellentra- tionalchoicesandtheirdesirefor materialgoodsdeclines.material goodsdecline.
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|21 “Iamsurethatfrom clothingcaretofood preparationeverything isdoneinourfamilyin themostsustainable way.Ourhomeusesits sensorstocontroleve- rythingsoitisenergy efficient.” Intelligentandsmartpackagingof foodfortransparency,awarenessand lesswaste. Welivedinthe suburbswhenI wasachildand droveeverywhere. Ican’timagine livingsofaraway andhavingso muchspaceat homenow.My parentssoldtheir housesevenyears agoandnowlive twoblocksfrom usinaniceone livingroomapart- ment. There’sadentalclub forthosewhowant tolearnandtake careoftheirteethInmy apartmentbuilding. Igothereeverymonth tolearnself-dentistry. Anewwaste mineopened nearby.They collectwaste fromoldlandfills andprovidejob opportunities forthelocals. 2034:Austrianchildrenwiththemostpotential tobecomemembersofthefuturechampions areidentifiedatanearlyageandhand-picked forfuturetraining,i.e.theirskillsareimproved inlearningstudiosandtopschools. 2035 2037:There’sare-allocationofnon-productive leisuretimeintoanopportunitytolearn,includ- ingsubconsciouslearning(e.g.computer gamesthatarelinkedwiththecityenviron- ment).Schoolsthathoneskillsareestablished, nourishingandnurturingindividualskills. I’msoproudofmydaughter.She’s socuriousaboutherenvironment andenjoysthepossibilitiesofthe embeddededucationeverywhere. Tobehonest,Ienjoyitpersonallyas well.Ilearnnewthingseveryday! Controlboardfor householdservices Greendiet deliveryservices 2035:NewconcentrationsofR&Dand productionclustersbasedaroundlarge firms,andcloselylinkedtooneanother, emergearoundEurope.Oneofthebest examplesofthesenewclustersislocated inPortugal.
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22|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 TheEuropeanGreenNewDeal Transparencygetsthepricesright Theupcyclingeconomy Learning,notearning TheNo-WasteWorld Cupcontesthas beenoneofthemost popularleisure timeactivi- tiesinrecent years. 2043:Ahandfuloflargefirms dominatecradle-to-cradlebusi- ness.Thesesuper-firmsdrive sustainabledevelopment. 2039:Productionbusinessesarecompetingoverrights toexploitwasteconcentrations,e.g.thatofthePacific Ocean.Largeproductionentitiesenjoyeconomiesof scaleandpossessresourcesextensiveenoughtolead largewasteminingprocesses. 2042:AccordingtotheEuroFactsSurvey,time spentdoingphysicalexerciseamongyoung peopleandyoungadultsissoaring.Thanksto educationreformanditsnewfocusonhealth promotion,thereareveryfewyoungpeople smokingandoverall,thehealthdifferencesbe- tweendifferentsocialgroupshavediminished. 2040 2040:Duetoashiftintaxregula- tion,informationtransparency andpublicpressure,mostofthe businesseshaveturnedintosocial enterprises,whicharebeneficialto theenvironmentandsociety. “Myaluminiumusage istaxed!”criesouta womaninDenmarkas thecountryprepares fortaxationbased onnaturalresource usage.Agroupof peoplegetsmargin- alisedfromsocietyas theyfailtoadaptto changingconsump- tionpatterns. Iwanttospendmy leisuretimedoing somethingproductive. Igotoschools foreveryonetohone myskills. Copenhagen–Barcelona,4,5 hours!readsanadvertise- mentforhigh-speedtrainline thatjustopenedinMay. 2039:AllaroundEurope,technologicalbreakthroughsallow informationtocirculatewithoutbarriers.Thedevelopment ofstocksofnaturalresourcescanbetrackedinrealtime byeveryone.Resourcepricesincreasehandinhandwith decreasingstocks,furtherencouragingthesmartuseof resources.Thankstothetransparentinformation,speculation onnaturalresourcesinthefinancesectordecreases. ID-DNACardspersonalisemedicinefor individuals.Everybodyhasacardthat containstheirgeneticmap,biological data,aswellasinformationabouttheir dietandhabits,inordertoprovideall informationnecessaryfordoctorsand othercaregiverstoprovidepersonalised healingsolutions. Personalrapidtransit railshaverevolution- isedthewaywetravel hereinUlm.Thereis atwominutewalkto thestopwherethe pre-routedcartawaitsme.Ican reachtherailwaystationinsix minutes.Wejustgotridofthe familycarandourlivesarenow mucheasier. Personalwateraccounts makesurethatthewaterI useforshoweringalways staysataround38degrees.
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|23 2050:Over2/3ofthepopulationinEuropean countriesspendatleast10hoursaweekof theirfreetimeinlearninginstitutionsinorder tonetworkwiththeirfield’ssustainabilityelite. 2049:Aglobalresearchandknowledgebank createsstandardsforallnationalandlocal levelpoliticaldecision-making.Itguaranteesa scientificbasisforallgovernmentaction,and canbeusedtovetoanydecisionthatiseco- nomically,ecologicallyorsociallyirresponsible. 2047:Accesstowastebecomesoneofthekeydeter- minantsofsuccessforcompanies.Themostvaluable resourcesextractedfromwaste,e.g.rareearthmetals,are amongtheitemsthatcirculateglobally. 20452050 “…Inordertoliveecologically andeconomically,Ihavecho- senthe‘energybudgetcard’of masterShashangShrinivadu. Iwillfollowhistrainingso thatmyecologicalfootprintbe- comesaslightashis,andIwill savemoneywhiledoingso.” Myhometownisrathersegregatednowa- daysasSuperChampiongroupsformtheir ownsuburbs.Theydon’thavemoremate- rialwealththanothersasthey’remore awareofsustainability.Instead,theyhave morepoliticalandeconomicpowerand bettereducation. Globalenergy consumptiontarget fixedbyuser Ireturnedmyold shoestotheshoe storeandgotmystore creditreturnedbydo- ingso.Icannowget brandnewshoesand Iknowthatit’sgreat fortheenvironmentas well!
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Mobility(dailyandtourism) 11000kg Housing:building 2400kg Product consumption 2600kg Leisuretime 1500kg Food 7300kg Housing: electricity 3300kg Others 900kg 24|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 Gatekeepersforlifestylechanges Manufacturingand retailcompanies …providetransparentlifecycle dataontheirproducts. Newdigitalservice providers …helpconsumerstotranslate openlifecycleandfootprintdata intosmartconsumerchoices. SuperChampion leadusergroup …changethestatussystem behindconsumercultureand spreadbestpracticeson sustainablelifestyles. Urbanplanners …createurbanenviron- mentsthatattractpeople andenabledense,sus- tainableliving. Dietaryexperts …providedetailedinforma- tiononnutrition,resource andcost-effectivediets. Six-packofmostinfluentiallifestyletriggers 1.Transparentproductdataallowspeopletounderstandtheenvironmentalcostoftheirpersonal consumerchoicesandtheiroveralllifestyle.Comparingthesustainabilityofchoicesoffood,hous- ing,mobilityandconsumergoodsin2050isaseasyascomparingpriceswasin2012. 2.Roadpricingandtheoverallriseoftransportationcostschangehousingpreferences.People prefershortcommutingdistances,well-servicedneighbourhoodsandabetteraccesstospacious- ness. 3.Improveddesignofpublicspacesandflatsdrawspeopletodenselypopulatedareas.Inallcoun- tries,areasaroundcitycentresturnintothemostdesirableplacestolive.Peoplearewillingto tradeoffaspaciousdwellingforthestatusandcomfortprovidedbyaflatinacentrallocation. 4.Newdietaryalternativesemergefromacombinationofrisingfoodpricesandincreasedhealth consciousness.Media,primaryeducationandcateringcompanieshelpenvironmentallyrational dietsbecomeamainstreamlifestyleoption. 5.Appsforpersonalinformatics,educationalsoftware,onlinelearningnetworksandadiversified educationalservicessectorbecomeattractiveandinfluencepeople’sspending.Asaresult,there islessdesireformaterialgoods,asmorepeoplehaveexcellentskillsinmakingrationalchoices. 6.Newupcyclingapproachestoconsumergoodshavechangedproductlifecycles.Allmaterial goodsaresoldwithanadditionaldepositontheirmaterialresources,whichencouragespeopleto returnusedmaterialstotheretailer. TheaveragematerialfootprintofaEuropeanin 2050intheSingularSuperChampionsscenario (8000kgperpersoninayear)comparedtothe averagematerialfootprintin2007(29000kg). Mobility (dailyandtourism) 2800kg Food 2500kg Housing: building 1300kg Others 300kg Housing: electricity 300kg Product consumption 500kg Leisure time 300kg
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|25 Criticalchallengesandsolutionsin thescenarioSingularSuperChampions Q1.Howtodoawaywithunsustainablestatussymbols? 1.Apricemechanismincludesandquantifieseverything:resourceuse, pollution,health,biodiversity,etc.Itisatopmotivatorofbehaviourand influenceslifestyles. 2.Low-cost,low-impactoptionsintermsofbothenvironmentandhealth havebecomethesocialnorminfoodandleisureactivities.Healthymo- bilitypatternsareamajorpartofdailyexercise.Improvedinfrastructure, goodavailabilityandcompetitivepriceshavemadeiteasyforpeopleto choosehealthyoptions. Q2.Howtomanageincreasedurbanconcentrationwhile decreasingresourceuse? 1.EU-widepolicyincentivesandrisingenergypriceshavemadezeroen- ergybuildingthenorm.Peoplearepersuadedtoretrofittheirhomeswith taxincentivesandproliferationofDo-it-Yourselfretrofitkits. 2.Buildingsandinfrastructurewhicharenotusedanymore(duetoin- creasedenergyandmobilitycosts)areupcycledintonew,highlyefficient anddenseurbancentres.Peoplearethereforeincentivisedtorecycle allthematerialfromstructurestheydeconstructwhilerefurbishingtheir homes. 3.Progressivepropertytaxesandsubsidiesforconstructionofsmallflats provideincentivesforpeopletoreducetheirdomesticspace.Thisleads toincreasedleisureactivityoutsidethehome. 4.Theshiftininnovationandurbaninfrastructurepolicyfromcartrafficto smartmobilityincludingPRTsystems.Thesenewmobilityoptionsare byfarthemostconvenientonesindenseurbanareaswithhighlifestyle status. 5.Pricesreducebothlong-andshort-distancetravelling. Q3.Howtomanagetheconsumptionofresourcesinterms ofpowerproductionandICTproduction? 1.Duetoadoptionoftaxincentives,alltheappliancesandconstruction materialproductsavailableinthemarketsarehighlyenergyandresource efficient.Asaresult,peoplehaveincreasedtheenergyandresourceef- ficiencyoftheirhomes,applicationsandmobilitypatterns. 2.Highlyresource-efficientwindandsolarpowerproductiondominatesen- ergyproductionastheoldenergymodeshavedisappearedduetoheavy taxationandphasingoutofsubsidies. 3.Innovationpolicyacceleratestheuseofabundantinsteadofscarce materialsforICTincombinationwithsophisticatedrecycling.Pricing motivatespeopletoadoptnewinnovativesolutions. 4.ExtremelyefficientICTsolutions(sensors,centralizedcomputing,cloud farms)haveenabledpeopletorealisepersonaloptimisation.Optimisation ofconsumptionlevelsisalsoasourceofsocialandprofessionalreward. Governing theCommons
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26|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 Governing theCommons Youcanmanufactureproductsbasedonyour veryowndesignatthenearestcornershop!The riseof3Dprintersmadeitpossibleforthefirst timeforpeopletocontroltheirownproduction andconsumption.In2015,3Dtechnologywas seenassomethingofaniche,butfromtheearly 2030sithasalteredlifestyles,andmanybusi- nessespermanently.Thedriversofmasscon- sumptioninthelatterhalfofthe20thcenturyare replacedbyacultureof“self-creation”assisted by3Dprintersandothersimilartools.Itoffers endlesspossibilitiestomouldandre-createone’s identity.Peoplegrowmoreawareofwhatistheir own,eitherpurchasingcarefullyselecteditems theylikeorconstantlymoldingthesamematerial intonewversionsofgoods.Newformsofdo- it-yourselfmanufacturingwouldnotbepossible withouttherichpresenceofthedigitalspace. Theentirebuiltenvironmentcanbeseenthrough twoseparatelayers,adigitalandanactual, physicalone.Billionsofmicrochipsembeddedin machines,wallsandpavementbringanewtype ofdatatousersandcreatenewopportunitiesto livesmart,sustainablelifestylesthroughpowerful feedbackmechanisms.Socialnetworkscontinue togainpowerandverysoontraditionalinstitu- tionsthatareoutsideofmeaningfulnetworks nearlyvanishfromsightformanypeople. IntheworldofGoverningtheCommons,people havefoundnewrelationshipswiththeirpeers bothinvirtualandmaterialreality.Thisoffers immenseopportunitiesfordifferenttypesof meaningfulinteraction,botheconomicandnon- economicalike.Peoplestarttolookformore AlternativeSustainable Society2:Supporting8000kg SustainableLifestyles GoverningtheCommonsisascenariomostly indigitalrealitythathelpspeopletobreakfree frommanyculturalconstraintsand,eventually, toreachsustainability.Ubiquitouscomputing enablesthesmartuseofresourcesand,atthe sametime,redirectspeople’sbehaviourand focusofattentionfrommaterialconsumption andtheirphysicalsurroundingstointeractionin thedigitalrealm.Peopleabandonmanyinstitu- tionsofthe20thcentury,liberatethemselvesin ordertoleadmoremeaningfullivesandengage innewformsofcollaboration. meaninginjobsandlifeingeneral.Learningnew skillsiseasywithalloftheinformation,digitally assistedtrainingtoolsandpeersupport.This givesrisetoanewkindofentrepreneurshipin whichthenextgenerationstartstoredefinetheir expertiseandsourceofmotivation. Multi-professionalself-employmenthasreplaced asteadyincomeandemploymentinacompany orpublicinstitution:Thepeer-to-peer(P2P)ser- viceeconomyhasreplacedbigcorporationsand theirofferings.Newmodelsofworkandwelfare havebeenformed. Oncepeoplestartedseeingthecollectivepoten- tialofthenewcombinationofhighlyskilledself- starterswithdigitalcommunication,newpolitical movementsstartedtogainpower.Networksof peoplewithenthusiasmtowardsasharedissue gatheredtheirskillsandresourcesanddirected theireffortstoexperimentingwithnewsolutions, insteadofjustcampaigningforchangethrough politicalstructures. Experimentingwiththehelpofthousandsof volunteersturnedouttohavepersuasivepower inthefieldofpolitics.Therefore,”interestnet- works”,combiningpolicywithdoingthingsgrad- ually,replacedtraditionalpartiesaspowerhouses ofrepresentativedemocracy.Asaresultofthis newcollaborationandtools,manypartsofthe politicalagendaaretotallyreformedandpolitical participationisbroughtbackintopeoples’daily lives.Thistypeof”wikidemocracy”hasrevived trustinpoliticsanditscapabilityofchanging societytowardspositivesocialchange. Singular SuperChampions LocalLoops Governing theCommons Empathetic Communities Pandemictechnology Endemictechnology Human-centrism Meritocracy
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|27 Howaresustainable lifestylesachieved? Thetransitiontopeople-powerthroughdifferent networks,modelsofwikidemocracyandubiqui- toustechnologyarebecomingpartofeveryday life,alteringbehaviourtowardsmoresustainable lifestylesinthe21stcentury. Theimpactsofubiquitoustechnologycontinueto shapepeople’sday-to-daypracticesevenmore stronglythanmanythoughtintheearly2000s. Differentapplicationsandpersonalservicesinflu- encelifestyledecisions,consumerchoicesand motivatebehaviourchangethatsupportsthe 8000kggoals.Takemobilityforinstance–once personalizeddigitalservicesareinplace,co- usingofcarsandpublictransitstartstowork, basedonwhatismostpracticalforitsusers. Energyefficienthousingbecamethenorminthe early2020sasanewwaytocollectandmine data.Openenergyconsumptiondatagaveabig boosttoretrofitmarkets.Companiescouldeas- ilyidentifyinhabitantswithsignificantpotential forefficiencygainsandsavings.Homesturned intosmartsystemswitheasytousegadgetsto controlenergyconsumptionfromlighting,heat- ing,useofappliancesandeventhecontentsof thefridge.Ubiquitoustechnologystartedprovid- inginstantfeedbackloopsthathelpedtochange behaviouralchoicestowardsonesthatsupport 8000kgsustainablelifestyles. Asthevirtualenvironmentismoreandmore prominent,physicalconsumptiondecreasessig- nificantly.Urbanspaceisfreedoutofoldunused officesandremoteworkbecomesamainstream alternative.Infrastructurebecomesaclosedloop systemcombinedwithservicestakenoverbythe virtualworld.Augmentedrealityservices,along with3Dprinters,makeconsumptionmoresus- tainablethroughthepersonalisationanddigitali- sationoflifestyles. WhatislifelikeinGoverningtheCommons? Whatchangesbetween2012and2050? EducationThemainfocusofeducationisonPeer-to-Peerskillssharing.Learningbydoingisemphasized,initerativeways.Pandemictechnol- ogyenablesinstantfeedbackloops,whichacceleratesharingofknowledge.Focusoninformaleducationwhereclassroomsdon’t exist. WorkPeople’ssourcesofincomehavefragmented.Comprehensiveuseofskillsarevalued.Everyonehassomethingtooffertosociety. Keywordsdescribingworkincludemicro-tasks,crowdsourcingandbeingusefultoone’speers. CityCitiesarebasedonalreadyexistinginfrastructure.Officeandschoolbuildingshavebeenconvertedintoflatsandpublicspaces. Urbanexperiencesareenrichedbyaugmentedreality.Peoplefindpersonalizedsolutionstofulfiltheirneedsandaspirationsonboth thephysicalandvirtuallayers. HealthPeer-to-Peernetworksupportischaracteristicofbothpreventativeandreactivehealthcare.Publicfundingisprovidedforhealth- carecooperatives.Awidevarietyofhealthylifestyleshavebecomeroutinized.Digitalfeedbacktoolsareusedbyeveryone. LivingPeopleliveinsmallflatsandworkinnewofficelofts.Thedigitallayeriskeytoprovidepeoplewithqualityintheirlives. Smarthomes,austerefurnitureanddigitalservicescharacterizedomesticity. FoodFoodproductionanddistributionaremanagedbyglobalfoodsystemsandsmartfoodstoragemechanismsareinplace. Amultitudeofdietsareofferedandenergyintakeisreduced.Vegetablechoicesandsyntheticmeatsformdifferentiationsindiets. MobilityMobilityisgreatlyreducedbytheuseofdigitaltools.Commutingisminimizedandtheconstructionofnewtrafficinfrastructurehas becomeunnecessary.Smartpublictransitandcarandridesharingarethemainformsoftransport. Consuming3D-printingpersonalizesconsumption.Materialconsumptionisreducedbyusingmodularappliances,whichenabledo-it-yourself (DIY)repairandupgradeofproducts.Highdegreesofappliancepersonalization,virtualconsumptionandrecyclablegenericmateri- alsformnewdesignandproducercultures,helpingtoreducetheoverallnumberofappliances. EconomyMicro-taskscharacterizeeconomicorganization.Newbusinessesarecreatedinandbydata-richenvironments.Opensource,open dataandfreedistributionofinformationdrivenewinnovation.Personaloptimization,DIY,peerservicesandmanufacturingaredriv- ersoftheneweconomy. Senseof security SenseofsecurityisheightenedbymembershipinPeer-to-Peercommunities.Democratizeddataempowerspeople.Easyaccessto services,productsandglobalknowledge-basespromoteequality.Personalizedappliancesanddirectparticipationincreaseasense ofbelongingandsecurity. LeisuretimeLeisuretimeisformedaroundamultitudeofdigitalinteractions.Homeconsumption,highqualityhouseholdcapabilitiesanddigital crowdexperiencesarethemainwaysofspendingfreetime. GoverningtheCommonsscenario narrative–howdiditallhappen? »The3rdindustrialrevolution »Ubitecheconomy »Betterworkcreateswell-being »Wikidemocracy Thesedriversaredepictedaseventsonthetimeline.
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28|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 The3rdindustrialrevolution Ubitecheconomy Betterworkcreateswell-being Wikidemocracy 2014:Socialmediadominatesglobalnarratives.Peer-producedcontentstartsto emergeintheglobalmedia.Theeventsofthe2011ArabSpringhighlightthegrow- ingimportanceofaccessibleglobalinformationnetworks.Peoplegetincreasingly acclimatedtotheideaofexistingonlineandbuildingtheirpersonalidentitythrough virtualmeans.Mediamoderatedrealityhitsnewheightsastheinternetstartsto defineeverydaylifeandconnectcommunitiesworldwide,producingmoreinterest- basedsocialgroupsthatonlyeverconnectinthevirtualrealm. 2013:Boycottsofpoliticstakingworld- widehelptackleclimatechange.Global treatiesareoutofreach,whichdrives peopletoexpresstheirfrustrationwith governments’andcorporations’inability togenuinelyinterveneintheincreasingly apparenteffectsofclimatechangeand risingresourceprices. 2015:Thecrisesthatstartedin2008eventually changesproductionstructuresandpeople’sworking patterns,especiallyinmanyEuropeancountries. Fewerandfewerpeopleworkpermanentlyforone company.Diversificationinworkpatternsincreases. 2016:Companiespromotingsustainabilitybeginto dominatethemarkets:Severaltechnologycompa- niesintroduceGreenEarthpoliciesandsustainability indexes,astheyareseenasastheonlywaytogainaa positionasmarketleader. 2017:Theuseofmeshnetworks(community datasystems)isspreadingtorecyclingand green“interestgroups”.Initiallythesesub- networksweredevelopedinLivingLabsand wereusedbytheanti-corporateactivistsof the2010seconomicdownturn. 2015:Thefirst3Dprintersforthemass marketarrive.Atfirst,consumershave tobuyspecificallypackedmaterialsfor theprinterstowork.Theyareinspiredby workatMIT’sFabLabs.Soonconsumers starttocomeupwiththeirownsolutions. 2017:TheChristmasmarketsseeaflurryofexcitementover3Dprinting. 2017:AEurope-wide studyrevealsthatsus- tainabilityandethicsare themainmotivational driversforworkers. 2018:Thankstocrowd-sourcing,weknow thattheeconomicimpactofnearlyevery- thing:Ecopidiaiscreated.Eventuallythis transformsintoGEKS,theGlobalExchange andKnowledgeSystem,atoolthatcon- nectsinformationandhelpssupportsus- tainabilityworldwide. 2018:Customised3Dprintersthatcan userecycledmaterialsstarttodominate themarketsandmoretraditionalcom- paniesstruggletocompetewithgoods producedathome. 2015:Aglobalnetworkofenergy- consciousconsumersstartsopenly usingelectriccars,smartconsumption solutionsandtomonitortheirpersonal everydayclimateimpact.Theseearly adoptershelpcreategrowingplatforms foremergingtechnologiesandmomen- tumforsupportivepolicies. 2019:Companieshaveembracedsustain- ablepracticesinordertoincreaseemploy- eemotivation.Stepbystepthisleadstoa behaviourchangeinpeoples’livesaswell. Workandhomebehavioursstarttooverlap witheachother. 2019:Earth treatyby UN:national democ- racyhasto respectthe limitsofthe earth. 2015 Mysonneverbuys anythingthatismass- produced.Hewants tocustomiseitallby himself.Ithinkallof hisclothesarecustom made. “Ifoundyourflattobeveryinef- ficientinenergyuse,”statesan energyrepairservicethathasmoni- toredmyapartment. Icanusethehighlyefficienturbanmobilitysys temtobuygroceriesandhavethemdelivered straighttomyhome. WhenIlookoutsidethewindow,I canenjoygreenwallsbloomingwith flowers,thepumpcleaningthewa- ter,thesolarpanelsslowlyturningto thesun.
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|29 2020:Thebiggestcompanyonlinelaunchesits“smartlife”and“smartcities”servicesofferingseveral programmesthathelpmakesmartchoicesregardingthingslikehealthyandresourceefficientfood, identifyingthemostsustainablemobilitychoices,settingtheoptimaltemperatureandlightinglevelsin yourhomeordecidingwhentoretrofityourhouseorcallsomeonetorepairyourinefficientfridge. 2020:Companiesredesigntheir humanresourcesstrategiesas anincreasingnumberoftalented individualsstartlookingforentre- preneurialopportunities. 2021:Anetworkofenergyconsciousconsumers whohaveopenlypublishedtheirclimateimpact information,proposeasacitizens’acttoscaleup theirbehaviour.Hackathoneventspowersimilar citizeninitiativesacrossallEUcountries.Thegoal istoreformtaxationsothatitsupportssustainable consumerchoices. 2024:Consumerbrandsthathavenotyetstartedto operatesustainablystarttooverproduce.Thiscycle dramaticallydecreasesthequalityoftheproductsand morepeopleturntowardsself-customization. 2023:Augmented-realityservicesbecomeavail- ablein300Europeancities.Theseservicesalter world-viewsandlifestylessignificantlyasthe needtotravelandconstructdecreases. 2025:Peopleacrossdiffer- entnetworksfindawide rangeofmeanstosecure anincomebydoingdiffer- entkindsofmicrowork. 2025:Basedonthecitizens’actsoftheearly 2020s,allEUcountriesreformtheirtaxation toincludeenvironmentalimpactsinprices. 2024:City3.0andthe“internetofthings”:sending informationtoapartmentblock-based3Dprint- ersinordertocreateanyobjectse.g.computers. Reproductionstartsatcitylevel,whichdefinesthe structureofthephysicalspace. Afriendofminecameto takealookatmyapart- mentwithhisheatcamera. Shecheckedmyenergy consumptionandIordered energyretrofittingfromher onthespot! 20202025 I’mapartofaNo-Impact Groupthatwasformed 5yearsago.Itreally showedpeoplethatit ispossibletolivewithin planetarylimits. “Mykidssay thereare enoughexcit- ingthingsto discoverin digitalschools, virtualtourism servicesand augmented realitygames. Youdon’t needtotravel tohavenew experiencesas Ioncedid.” Everyvillageandsuburbhasaremoteco-workingspace thatallowspeopletogettogether,sharethoughtsand reducetheneedtocommute.Everymunicipalitysets upthesespacesforpeopletoworkoreventogetnew jobs,basedonearliersharedbrainstormingsessionand cooperation. 2019:ThankstoGEKS, diversedataregarding peoples’homesisgath- ered.Basedonthisdata, inhabitantsreceivefeed- backwhichencourages homerepairesthathelpto maximizeenergyefficiency. Multi-players open-airgames Augmented realityglasses
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30|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 The3rdindustrialrevolution Ubitecheconomy Wikidemocracy 2027:Acarsharingcompanythatuses an“access”businessmodelrivals traditionalmarketleadersinmobility andacquiresoneofthetraditionalcar companies. 2027:Theexampleofpeerpowerthatproducedthefamouscitizen movementforsustainabilityintheearly2020s,inspiresmanymoreof thesecitizens’acts.Largenumbersofpeopledraftcitizenmovements thatarebasedonnotedbestpractices–thesemovementssoonstart toshapemainstreamlifestyles. 2027:Recognitionisgivento peopleinwaysthatdonot makenarrowassumptions aboutindividual’swork. 2029:80%ofEstoniancitizensownaper- sonalappliancethatoptimizestheirmobility, dietsandelectricityconsumptionthrough constantrecognitionandfeedbackoftheir consumerchoices.Thesepersonalappli- ances,forexample,helppeopletooptimise publictransportationuseandenabledifferent typesofvehicleandridesharingschemes. 2030:Universaltransla- torappsmakeitpos- sibleforcommunities worldwidetocommu- nicatewitheveryone everywhere. 2031:Smarttechnologiesandaugm serviceshaveproducedanewbusin doublesitssizeeachyearforthene Accordingtostudiesthissectorem peopleEurope-wide. 2026:Duetothe3D-print- ingmarket,theNasdaq succeedstheDowJones asthegloballyrelevant marketindex. 2026:Anewcompanythat facilitatesdifferentmicrowork opportunities,isamongthebig- gestcompaniesinEurope. 2026:Usergrouporiented hospitalsemergeandpeople whosharesimilargeneticrisk profilesforcertaindiseases helpprovidebestpossible care,knowledgeandreaction timeforitscustomers. Ionlybuybooks withvirtualmoney. Itmakesnosense formetouse“real” currenciesanymore tobuybooks. 2030 There’sahighefficiencyinter-modalitysystemthat letsmetravelbybike,trainandsharedcar–all withinthesamenetwork. TheWisePersonalFoodShopper -applicationanalysesuser’sgenetic dataandproposeshealthydiets. Tobehonest,Ihaven’tseen anewbuildingconstructed inmytowninthepastfive years.Instead,alloftheoffice buildingshavebeenretrofit- tedforresidentialuse. “YoushouldmeetuponWednes- dayinsteadofTuesdayasthere’s verylittledifferenceinyour preferences,butahugegapin efficiencyinregardtomobility,for instance.”saysmyphonewhenI setupameetingwithmyfriend. “Ioftenlogontotheseparticipative governanceprogramsinordertomeet peoplewithwhomIsharecommon Betterworkcreateswell-being Deliberativeproce onlocalgovernan
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|31 2035 nted-reality sssectorthat tthreeyears. loyseightmillion 2032:Copyrightisfoundtoberedundant,asthebestmethodto mapsolutionsistocrowdsourceinputstoproblemsfromrelevant onlinecommunities.Anexplosionofimmaterialcreativityfollows. 2033:Valueiscrowdsourcedthrougheverypiece ofmeaningfulormeaninglessaction.Itisgath- eredthroughdifferentsensorsandnowexceeds theamountoftimepeoplespendexplicitlywork- ing.Thevirtualenvironmenthasmadeitpossible forneighboursnottocompetewithinthematerial realm,whichleadsto,incredibleamountsofnew onlinecontentcreation. 2036:Peoplemovebeyondthedivisionbetweenreal- lifeandvirtualidentities;whateverhappensinone automaticallyfollowsintotheotheraswell.People -notcorporations-areinchargeofthenetworks. “WhenIfinish pickingup andcustomis- ingitemsfrom virtualcata- logues,Ican justgodown- stairsandpick themupfrom the3Dprinter space.” Anewbookcomesout describinghowthelastof thepoliticalpartiesisstill hangingoninthere.Ifind thesepartiestobearem- nantofpast.Nowpolitical decisionsstartfrom,and areintimatelylinkedto, everydaypractices. Thisoldofficebuild- ingisrenovatedand willbecomeahighly energyefficienthome formanyfamilies. Theseareamongthe mostwantedhomes available! 3Dprintingandself- prototypingfacilities. 2034:Theclimatechangedenialof the21stcenturyisviewedassome- thingcomparabletothewitchhunts ofthe17thcentury. Myfriendwho’s beenpartially disabledforthe past10yearsis anactiveparticipantinso- ciety,asdigitaltoolshave empoweredhimtoaccess informationandservices asefficientlyasanyone couldimagine. Idon’tevenhavetouse repairservicesasIcan justupgrademy modularappliance byprintingoffanew partforit. “Ispendmost ofmytimevery efficiently.Even whentravelling,I’m completingamul- titudeofdifferent microtasks.” 2033:Usergrouporientedhospitals initiateacitizens’acttoallocatemost availablehealthcarefundstosupport- ingthesehospitalsspecifically. interests.Weregularlypropose initiativesthatlaterbecomethe basisofnewpolicies.” Local citizenship networks sses
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32|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 The3rdindustrialrevolution Ubitecheconomy Betterworkcreateswell-being Wikidemocracy 2044:Citizenmovementsreplace traditionalpoliticalmechanismsin decision-making.Peer-to-peerpower formsthebasisof“wikidemocracy.” 2045:Newlysetstandardsare formedfordigitalnetworksto serveasaplatformforprovid- ingmanufacturingblueprints. Theinternetisoneofthese ad-hocnetworksofknowledge exchange. 2042:Aglobalactforself-surveil- lancetakesplace,initiatedbymany ofthepeer-to-peernetworks.Every digitalitemconnectedtotheglobal networkoperateswithinsustainable parameters.Exceedingthesepa- rametersisonlypossibleoutsidethe digitalrealm(whichforthemajority ofthepeopleisimpossible). “OurActiveHouseisconstantly optimisingthewaywelive,from suggestinggreencookingreci- pesandautomaticallyprevent- ingfoodwastetoimplementing EnergyWatcherdietingpro- gramsforthefamily.” 2040:Differentinterestgroups provideblueprintsforindividuals togatherresourcesand“print” theirownitems,althoughinhighly customisedways.Mostcorpora- tionshavebeensucceededby suchinterestgroups. 2040:Sustainabilityisnoteventalkedaboutanymoreasby2034global knowledgeofwhatcanandcannotbedonewithintheboundariesof oneEarthbecameapparenttoeveryone.Whatwereseenassustainable lifestylesin2012aresimplyrationalchoicesin2040. 20402045 Iamamemberofahealthcen- trewithmypeers.Thisspecific centreisoptimisedforpeople whohavethesamegeneticrisk profilesasIdo. Sensorsandfeed- backsystems Situatedadviseon energyconsumption Imonitormyhealthconstantly throughthesesensorsthatare installedinmyarm.It’sarelief. Whateverhappens,myhospital isawareofmyconditionandI savealotofmoney,energyand effortsinceIdon’thavetodothe evaluationsmyself.Icantrustmy doctorstodothem–nomore futilevisitstothehospital!
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|33 2046:Thevalueoflifecomesfromnetworks.Toexististobepartof aspecificnetwork.Peoplebuildtheirreputationsvirtuallyandthose withagoodreputationcanjoinnetworksmoreeasilythanothers. Whiletherulesandguidelinesofdifferentcommunitiesdiffer,interact- inginthevirtualrealmisoneofthebasicformsofhumanbehaviour. 2049:Consumersrecycleeverythingin their“printers.”Theonlytraditionalfactory leftinEuropeproducesapartmentblock- scale3Dprinters. Idesignmyhome’snew interiorbyputtingmyold chairintomy printersothat Icangetanew oneasaresult. 2050 TheDomesticFeedbackService allowsseniorsinhouseholdstouse userfriendlysmarthomesolutions tocontrolandeducatetheirfami- liesonsustainableliving. MywifeandIhavesomeoldcooking booksthatweuseforhomedecoration aswehavenootherpracticalusefor them.Itamusesusthatsomuchem- phasiswasonceplacedontheprepara- tionoffood.Instead,wejustuseour3D printerstoprintsyntheticfoodthathas veryhighnutritionvalue. “Myfatherstudiedbio-engineeringandorganicfarmingandnowheisacook.Every morninghelooksformicro-joboffershecanrespondto,fromcoachingyoungfarmers todoingsustainableassessmentsofthefoodchain.Andhelovesit!” Workingagenda composedeveryday. Onlinetaskoffers
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34|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 Mobility(dailyandtourism) 11000kg Housing:building 2400kg Product consumption 2600kg Leisuretime 1500kg Food 7300kg Housing: electricity 3300kg Others 900kg Leisuretime Consumernetworks …firstorganiseintodecision makersthataffectlocaland globalpolicies. Agilemarketingagencies …makeuseofthepeerinformation availableinpurchasingdecisions. Constructioncompanies …startsellingsmallscaleenergy retrofittingservicestohomeowners Gamingindustry …growsinsignificanceand turnsintoagiantcrowdsourc- ingmechanismthatcombines playingandwork. Smartmobilitycompanies …comeupwithpersonalizedsolu- tionsthatletpeopleoptimizetheir mobilitybasedontheirneeds. Gatekeepersforlifestylechanges Six-packofmostinfluentiallifestyletriggers 1.Allappliancesandbuildingsareequippedwiththetechnologytoadvisetheirusersonsmartuse andmaintenancerequirements.Smart,energyefficientuseisthedefaultoption.Withthehelpof diverseandplentifuldataabouttheirownandtheirpeers’homes,peoplereceivefeedbackthat encouragesthemtorepairtheirhomessotheyreachmaximumenergyefficiency. 2.Smartmobilityserviceschangethewaypeopleplantheirtime,andhowtheycombineroutesand modesoftransport.Theseserviceshelptooptimizepublictransportationuseandenablethede- velopmentofvehicleandridesharingschemes. 3.UbiquitoustechnologiesgiverisetoanewecosystemofPeer-to-Peer—servicesthatareavailable forpeoplewhenevertheyneedorwantthem.Theseserviceswithretrofittinghomesorchoosing sustainabledietaryoptions,amongotherthings. 4.Anewgenerationofvirtualrealityandonlinecommunitiesbecomespopular,whichmeansade- creaseinneedsforlargelivingspaces,furnitureandevenfoodstuffs. 5.Thescaleupof3D-printingchangesthewaypeopleseekself-actualisation.Consuminggoods designedandmadebysomeoneelseisnolongerthemostelaboratewaytoexpressone’sidentity andstyle.Instead,peoplecollectivelydesignthegoodstheydesireandwanttobeidentifiedwith. 6.Onlinenetworksbuiltonasharedinterestinlifestyleissuesenablepeopletorealisetheirpotential andtoconstitutethemselvesasgroupswithpoliticalpower.Theexampleandsupportofothernet- workmembersencouragesexperimentationwithnewsustainablelifestylepatterns.Graduallythese networksandexperimentsgrowintomovementsthatstartreformingthepoliticalagenda. TheaveragematerialfootprintofaEuropeanin 2050intheGoverningtheCommonsscenario(8000 kgperpersoninayear)comparedtotheaverage materialfootprintin2007(29000kg). Mobility (dailyandtourism) 2700kg Food 2500kg Housing: building 1400kg Others 200kg Housing: electricity 300kg Product consumption 500kg Leisure time 400kg
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|35 LocalLoops Criticalchallengesandsolutionsinthe scenarioGoverningtheCommons Q1.Howtominimizetheconsumptionofresourcesin termsofpowerproductionandICTproduction? 1.Energyisproducedfromdiverserenewablesourcesand distributedwiththehelpofaEurope-widesupergrid. 2.Fossilfuelsphasedoutfollowingaglobaltreaty.Lotsof playersinenergymarketsharnessingvarioussources. 3.Virtualservices,entertainmentandcommunitiesare soattractivethatithasreducedtheneedforspacein homes.Ubiquitoustechnologieshaveenabledgrowthof servicesthatincreasesmartandefficientuseofhomes. 4.PeopleuselessICTappliances,becausethereisonly needforonedeviceyoualwayscarry.Modularappli- ancesandcentralizedcloudfarmswithoptimallocation ensurelonglife-cycleforappliances,aswellasefficient resourceuse. Q2.Howtolimitmobilityandtheenvironmentalimpacts ofinformationtechnologyinaubiquitoussociety? 1.Virtualconsumption,personaloptimizationanddirect behaviouralfeedbackreducecommutingandtravel needs.Meetingvirtuallyischeaper,smarterandcooler. 2.Althoughpeopledon’tfeelthereismuchneedfor travellinganymore,smartandflexiblepublictransport, car-sharingandslowairtravel(e.g.solarZeppelines)are inusetosomeextent. 3.Citiesaredense.Therearefewnewbuildingsand retrofittedflats.Thebasicinfrastructureofthe2010’s remains. 4.Changingproductionandemploymentpatternsmake alargepartofofficebuildingstockredundantintheir previoususe.Thishasenabledsmarturbangrowth:af- fordablenewhomesincentrallocations. Q3.Howtomakesurethatdecentralizedproduction ofitemspromotessustainability? 1.Although3Dcomponentprintingand3Dshoppingcul- turehavebecomepopular,virtualconsumptionensures thatpeopleownonlyasmallamountoftailoredpersonal goods.Thesearemainlymadeoutofrecycledmateri- alsinordertocomplywiththeglobaltreatyonresource efficiency.
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36|SPREADSustainableLifestyles2050 LocalLoops Thedramaticriseofresourcepricesandthescar- cityofoilfinallyarrivesinlate2010s,thoughit comesasagreatsurprisetomany.Severalcom- panies,politiciansandcitizenswereill-prepared foraneraofradicalriseofresourcepricesand oilscarcity.Theriseoflogisticscostsmeanta shifttowardslocalproduction.Thismakespeople viewlocalresources,likesoil,inanewlight. Asareactiontotheneweraofgrowingresource pricesinthe2020s,therewasacitizenuprising, whichforcedseveralEuropeanstatesandtheEU tolaunchnewprogrammestore-definepolicy structurestosupporttheresourceconstrained reality.Thenewprogrammeswerebasedonan ideaof“localresourceloops”,referringtolocal regionsthatareself-sufficientinkeyresources. Theseprogrammesfoundinspirationintransi- tiontownandeco-villageexperimentsthathad beengrowingsteadilyinthepreviousdecades. Thisdoesnotmeanthatallproductionoffoodor energynecessarilyhappenswithinthecitylimits, butratherthatcitieshavemanagementsystems helpingtomapresourceflowsandmaintainclose tieswithproductionfacilitiescreatingaLocal Loopwiththem. IntheworldofLocalLoopsscientificexpertise stilldominatesglobalstructures.Thetechnologi- calandscientificknowledgebaseisglobaland evenlydistributed.Buttheemphasisofmany businessesandprofessionsisonuser-centred designthatproducessmartandcreativelocal adaptations.Intheirheartsandmindspeoplestill recognizetheirdependenceonglobalnetworks, buttheyvaluelocalproductsandculturemore thanperhapsprecedinggenerationsdid.Con- sumerchoicesbecomemoreuniform–onlya fewwouldbuyfurniture,clothes,cheeseorcere- alsproducedoutsidetheirLocalLoop.Foreign designsandflavoursjustarenotappealingtothe averageconsumeranymore.Thisallmarksanew phaseofglobalcultureandglobalization. Allloopshavetheirowncombinationofinflu- entialprofessionalgroups.Localprofessional guildsformthecoreoflocalinnovationsystems andcompetitiveness.Theyarealsoanextremely importantforceinpoliticshelpingtoprepareleg- islationthatisbasedonlocalresources,medical practicesandtheboundarieswithinwhichglobal sustainabilityispossible. InsocietiesofLocalLoopsworkhasaspecial value,partlybecauselocalvaluechainsarevery clear.Peopleunderstandthattheyaredepend- entoneachothers’skills.Thisunderlinesthat everyone’sworkismeaningful.Othersknowthat theyneedyourwork;yourworksolvescommon issues.Theboundariesofworkandfreetimeare unclear. Howaresustainable lifestylesachieved? Peoplespendmostoftheirtimeaddingvalueto theircommunities,whichissomethingtheycan bestdothroughengaginginguildsasmembers. Aflourishingservicesectorwithintheloopshelps peopletooutsourceeverydayroutinessuchas Singular SuperChampions LocalLoops Governing theCommons Empathetic Communities Pandemictechnology Endemictechnology Human-centrism Meritocracy AlternativeSustainable Society3:Supporting8000kg SustainableLifestyles LocalLoopsisascenarioinwhicharadical energycrisisforcessocietiestore-evaluatefun- damentallythefoundationsoftheirwell-being. Energyandresourcesystemsareincreasingly seenthough“LocalLoops”,whichisatechni- calconceptthatcanbeappliedinthecontext oflocalandregionalproductioncycles.Peo- plebuildtheirlifestyleandwaysofbelonging aroundtheirwork,whiletechnologyisbetter adaptedthroughlocaldesignsolutions,which createroomfornewkindsofprofessionalism. Anewethosofcraftsmanshipandprofessional communitiesshapethewaypeoplelive,organ- izetheirworkandspendtheirleisuretime.
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ScenariosforSustainableLifestyles2050:FromGlobalChampionstoLocalLoops|37 cookingordoinglaundry,whichinturnreleases timeforcollaboration.Thecentralizedexecution oftheforementionedhouseholdtasksreducesthe materialfootprintatthecommunitylevel,byen- suringthereislessfoodwasteandmoreefficient useofappliancesandindoorspaces. Abreakthroughinsolarpaneltechnologyandef- ficientneighbourhoodcombinedheatandpower (CHP)systemshelpstobringcarbonemissions oflivingspacesdown.Aspeoplespendmostof theirtimeinworkinghubs,collaboratingwiththeir guildpeers,lessspaceisneededforhomesthan in2012.Collaborativeconsumptionispersonified asmosthomeappliancesaresharedamongst neighbours,andarelocatedinthesharedspaces ofbuildings.Realizingthatthelocallydesigned goodsmeettheirneedsbetter(technologicalin- novationshavefocusedonlocalsolutions),people preferthemovertheirinternationalsubstitutes.Lo- caladaptationsareveryappealingtopeople,their maintenanceiseasierandconvenientrecycling andup-cyclingservicesareinplace. Thereisnoneedtoleaveone’sneighborhood oftenaspeoplelivenearbytheirwork,familyand peers.Cyclingroutesandwalkinglanesarein goodconditionandarebuiltaroundthebestpos- siblescenerytomeetmultipleuserneeds.This easyaccesstoconvenientandhealthymobilityled toresilientbehaviourchanges,nudgingpeopleto walkandcycletogetaroundinsteadofusingcars orotherimpactfultransport. Forholidaysandleisuretime,newsocialnorms incentivisepeopletostayclosetohome.Local WhatislifelikeintheLocalLoops? Whatchangesbetween2012and2050? EducationEducationisabouttransmittingandsharingskills. Craftsmanshipandspecializationarepromotedthroughmutualteachingandproblem-basedlearning. WorkWorkischaracterizedbyengagementwithissuesandcollaborationwithinandamongguilds. Needsmetbyapplyingdesignthinkingandformulatinglocalsolutions. CityCitiesaremulticentredandformedintotheirownloops. Guildsworkingandlivingintheloopslaytheirownstrongcharacteristicsontheirloops. HealthWorkplacesprovidehealth-careandskilleddoctors. Therearebasicrightsthatallregionsagreetoprioritizewithregardtohealth-care. LivingLivingintheloopsischaracterizedbysharedspaces,existinginfrastructureandco-workingspaces. Guildmembersoftenliveinthesameneighbourhood FoodFoodproductionanddistributionaremarkedbylocality,minimizedtransportationandneighbourhoodcanteens. Energyusedforfoodproductionisoptimized. MobilityTransportationisaboutwalkabilityandcycling.Existinginfrastructureisoptimized. Intercitymobilityisneededlessandservicesarehome-delivered.Localtourismandlongvacationsarefavouredbypeople. ConsumptionConsumptiondriversincludeamassquesttoreducetheoverallvolumeofappliancesneededthroughsharingschemesand replacementservices.Productsaremadewithhigh-qualitylocalmaterialsanddesign.Availabilityofforeigngoodsislimited.All productsarerepairable. EconomyTheeconomyisbasedaroundlocaluser-centricadaptationsandefficientlocalclustering. SenseofsecuritySenseofsecurityisgeneratedthroughguildsandunderstandingofhowthesystem,i.e.theclosedcycles,work. Peopleidentifythemselvesprimarilyaspartoftheirworkcommunities. LeisuretimePeoplehaveoutsourcedtheirhouseworkinordertobeabletomaximizetheirinputsinworkcommunities. Leisuretimeismostlyspentwithguildmembers. LocalLoopsscenarionarrative –howdiditallhappen? »Peak-oilgame-changer »Rediscoveryoflocalresources »Localturn »Craftsmanattitude Thesedriversaredepictedaseventsonthetimeline. touristdestinationshaveincreasedinnumber andprovidedesirablerecreationalvaluesuchas localbiodiversityreservesorfarmsproducing theirfavouritefoodproducts.In2050,membersof somefamiliesmightstillliveindifferentcities.To seeeachother,familymembersmaytakelonger holidaystogetherinoneofthelocaltourismdesti- nations.
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