Bridge apr 2014
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Cost Analysis by retired engineer Bob Hamilton looking at why New Forth Crossing is the most expensive in the world.
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Bridge apr 2014
- 2. 2 THIS TALK DEALS WITH ONLY ONE ASPECT OF THE FRC THE £1.5Bn COST
- 3. 3 First – a wee bit history 4th April 2000 – Holyrood Building Debate – A presentation was arranged prior to the debate ONLY SIXTEEN MSPs TURNED UP 15th January 2009 - Forth Replacement Crossing Debate – Scotland’s biggest ever project. ONLY SEVENTEEN MSPs TURNED UP So before we start let’s deal with the politicians
- 4. 4 SCOTLAND’S RECENT MAJOR PROJECTS RECORD UK average motorway cost per mile is £30m M8 motorway missing link and other work to cost £415m M8 was £70m per mile
- 5. 5 EDINBURGH TRAMS Now over £1,000 million The TIE Directors who made a mess of this resigned They were awarded severance payment totalling £406,635. Originally 2003 cost was £375 million
- 6. 6 SKYE BRIDGE cost £25m now £93m BORDERS RAILWAY Was £155m now £295M Edinburgh Infirmary Cost £185m Repayment £1,000+ Stirling-Kincardine Railway line-just finished needs to be rebuilt Would you like to see some more disasters for the taxpayer?
- 7. 7 Wendy AlexanderSarah Boyack Iain Gray Nicol Stephen Tavish Scott Jack McConnell Stewart Stevenson Keith Brown Holyrood started business in 1999 How many Ministers of Transport do you think have been appointed ? Less than two years in office????
- 8. Alex S “870 of the 1,041 orders have gone to Scottish companies” (84%) Something’s missing Alex!! “118 Subcontracts awarded to Scottish firms from the total of 155” (76%) First Minister’s Questions 2 Feb 2012
- 9. Who is actually building the bridge CONTRACT COMPANY NATIONALITY CONSTRUCTION CONSORTIUM DRAGADOS SPANISH HOCHTIEF GERMAN AMERICAN BRIDGE USA MORRISON CONSTRUCTION ENGLISH (Now) 9 CONTRACT COMPANY NATIONALITY MAJOR MANUFACTURERS Zhenhua Heavy Industries CHINA Tecade-Megusa SPAIN Crist-Gdansk POLAND Cleveland Bridge ENGLAND Scottish contractor awards = £143 million (1%) “870 of the 1,041 orders have gone to Scottish companies” (84%) “118 Subcontracts awarded to Scottish firms from the total of 155” (76%)
- 11. Cable Stayed Bridge 11 Before we begin you should be you should be aware of the difference between these structures A SUSPENSION BRIDGE A CABLE STAYED BRIDGE A MULTIMODAL BRIDGE SUSPENSION BRIDGE STRUCTURE ORIGINAL FORTH ROAD BRIDGE
- 12. 12 Cable Stayed Bridge The New Forth Bridge
- 13. 13 PROPOSED FRC STRUCTURE WAS MULTIMODAL
- 14. 14 LET’S START WITH A LOOK AT THE GOVERNMENT’S COST OF THE 1965 FORTH ROAD BRIDGE Their 1965 cost is £19.5m Their 2005 inflation figure is £250 My 2016 inflation figure is £340m Their data can be verified on their web
- 15. 15 STRUCTURE COST COMPARISON The old bridge is a SUSPENSION BRIDGE The new bridge is a CABLE STAYED BRIDGE Structural engineers will tell you that suspension bridges are 10% more expensive than cable stayed bridges SO WHY IS THE NEW BRIDGE 5 TIMES MORE EXPENSIVE Made in UK Made in China 16 miles of road 24 other bridges 8 miles of road No other bridges
- 16. 16 NOWADAYS – Can a cable stayed bridge of similar structure be built for around £340m OF COURSE IT CAN - IT HAS BEEN DONE AND by one of the main contractors involved with Scotland’s FRC
- 17. Hong Kong’s Stone Cutters Bridge Examine the location Over one of the world’s busies sea routes Land prices 10 times the cost Located over a built up area Please examine the access roads... And the cost?? £245m
- 18. 18 THE COST FLUCTUATION FARCE • THE COST REVISIONS ARE QUITE STAGGERING • DESIGN CHANGES ARE MINIMAL • ONE CHANGE ILLUSTRATES THE POINT
- 19. 19 No Date Source Cost 2 Jan 05 Faber and Maunsell £500m 1 Jun 04 FETA £500m 3 Feb 07 Scottish Government £1,000+m 4 Dec 07 Scottish Government £2,790 to £3,630m 5 Jan 08 Scottish Government £3,250 to £4.220m 7 Mar 11 Scottish Government £1,470 to £1.620m 6 Sep 09 Scottish Government £1,700 to £2,300m £4,220m
- 20. 20SKYSCRAPERCITY.COM Scotland to build the World's most expensive bridge This pretty average 2km bridge has a budget of up to £4.2 billion This is a larger amount than even the entire Fehmarn Belt project. Scottish Finance Secretary, John Swinney, announced … "Forth Replacement Crossing",
- 21. 21 The FRC cost here are when the quoted price was £4,220m World Bridge Graphs Let’s compare.
- 22. 22 COST of VARIOUS TYPES TYPES OF WORLD BRIDGES -£M The FRC was the world’s most expensive bridge. £36 £84 £102 £106 £136 £146 £163 £198 £319 £357 £367 £392 £497 £498 £510 £561 £567 £576 £796 £854 £941 £1,081 £1,081 £4,050 £4,109 £4,220 £- £500 £1,000 £1,500 £2,000 £2,500 £3,000 £3,500 £4,000 £4,500
- 23. 23 36 84 102 106 146 163 319 367 392 497 561 567 576 796 941 1,081 4,220 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 COST of ONLY CABLE STAYED BRIDGES -£m Again – the FRC was by far the most costly
- 24. 0240 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100103106109112115118121124127 COMPARATIVE LENGTH of WORLD BRIDGES The FRC is tiny: a mere 127th in world ranking..
- 25. 25 £- £200 £400 £600 £800 £1,000 £1,200 £1,400 £1,600 £1,800 WORLD AVERAGE COST PER METRE £200K The FRC COST PER METRE WAS £1,500 LET’S NOW EXAMINE THE COST PER METRE WE’VE SEEN TOTAL COST LET’S NOW CHECK THE COST PER LENGTH £1,563
- 26. 26 US CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY DATA (Jan 2004) Between $4k and $5K per square metre The FRC cost- $60k per sq m. COST OF (Cable Stayed) BRIDGES PER SQUARE METRE
- 27. 2009 THE WORLD’S THREE MOST EXPENSIVE BRIDGES 27 1st - Scotland’s Multimodal FRC 2nd - Japan’s Pearl Bridge 3rd - Sweden/Denmark’s -Oresund Crossing Cost over £4,000m+ world crossings
- 28. 028 2nd -The Pearl Bridge Japan Opened in 1998 for $4,300m The world’s longest suspension bridge -3,910m Tornadoes (180mph) – hinged-girder system Fierce sea currents & deep water Why is it so expensive Earthquakes (8.5 Richter scale) –TMD pendulums tuned mass damper
- 29. 3rd - THE ORESUND CROSSING 29 WORLD’S LARGEST MULTIMODAL CROSSING An Island A Bridge and A Tunnel
- 30. 30 Bridge Tunnel DENMARK SWEDEN Island SATELLITE VIEW The Oresund Project Let’s build it in Fife!!!!!
- 31. 31 A 4 km Artificial Island
- 32. 32 A 4 km multimodal tunnel Road & Rail Tunnel 4050 metres
- 33. 33 A 8 km multimodal bridge Road & Rail Bridge 8km long
- 34. 34 Oresund Crossing cost £4,100m * Oresund Project 8 times the size of the FRC Built in 5 ½ years; and the FRC??? 5 ½ years * Transport Scotland data says £4,400m Forth Crossing cost £4,220m
- 35. 35 Professor John Kay. Do you know this man? Chosen Financial Adviser to the SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT. Public lecture – Sept 2007 on the FRC “Expressed astonishment” “..more than 4 times the final cost of the Oresund bridge”
- 36. 36 THE NEW MERSEY GATEWAY BRIDGE England’s MULTI-MODAL Comparison COMPLETION 2016 STRUCTURE MULTI-MODAL TYPE CABLE STAYED LENGTH 2.3 Km TOWERS 3 LANES 6 COST UNDER £600 million
- 37. 37 The Occasion Project Director Steve Nicholson Feb. 27th, 2012 The Statement “ Dropping the double deck and other measures will save ..£30m
- 38. 38 The Occasion Finance Secretary John Swinney Scottish Parliament Dec. 19th, 2007 The Statement “The tram section removed..” “A revised saving will be…” ..£580m
- 39. 39 Dec 2009 cost is now ± £1,600m Let’s compare it with another UK crossing THE SEVERN BRIDGE
- 40. AN EXCELLENT COMPARISON Both UK projects Similar environments Contemporary Cable Stayed Structures 40
- 41. 041 Second Severn Crossing FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING “MADE IN CHINA”“MADE IN UK” Six+hs Lanes Four+hs 5,200 m Length 2,700 18.5 km Roads 4.5 km 4 years Build time 5.5 years £810 m Cost ± £1,500 *Transport Scotland have it at £890m Hard Shoulder FRC IS HALF THE SIZE & TWICE THE PRICE
- 42. 42 Three ‘ICONIC’ world bridges. Is the FRC really so expensive?
- 43. Greece -Rio Antirio Bridge WORLD’S MOST DIFFICULT BRIDGE TO BUILD
- 44. 44 2,880 Metres Cable Stayed No bedrock 64 metre deep Sea crossing Seismic & Tsunami
- 46. 200 STEEL PIPES 2 METRE IN DIAMETER 30 METRE IN LENGTH BURIED IN THE SEA BED 46 800 pipes –200 per pier - 2m diameter – 25/30 m long
- 47. 47 Four gigantic CAISSONS installed over the pipes
- 48. 48
- 49. 049 Length m Lanes Towers Build Time Cost 2016 Rio Antirio 2880 6 4 6.0 £576m Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £1,600m Rio Antirio Opened in 2004 at a cost of €630M WORLD’S MOST DIFFICULT BRIDGE
- 50. WORLD’S HIGHEST BRIDGE MILLAU VIADUCT France Opened in 2004 €350m Length m Lanes Towers Build Time Cost 2016 Millau 2460 4 7 3 £400m Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £1,600m
- 51. 051 VASCO de GAMA Opened in 1998 at a cost of $1000m Length m Lanes Towers Build Time Cost 2016 Vasco de Gama 17200 6 2 1.5 £941m Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £1,600m EUROPE’S LONGEST BRIDGE
- 52. 52 THE TUNNEL OPTION The best till last!! If YOUR credibility has been stretched THE FINAL DATA IS (ALMOST) UNBELIEVABLE worst
- 53. COULD IT BE SOMEONE DIDN’T WANT A TUNNEL?
- 54. THEIR LIST IN FAVOUR OFA TUNNEL
- 55. 1. 5km more roadway 3. 4 million tonnes of spoil 4. Multi-modal option needs another tunnel 5. Prohibited goods (like whisky) 8. More expensive 7. No pedestrians or cyclists 6. Would take 7.5 years 2. Special Protection Areas GOVERMENT LIST AGAINST A TUNNEL An underground tunnel has less environmental impact. The bridge is 2.7km the tunnel is 8km –why more The Eurotunnel used their spoil to prevent erosion. The tram link was dropped – simply not valid. London’s M25 tunnel escort goods- we still have a bridge How come - the 31 mile Channel Tunnel was built in 6 years Tourists would prefer the bridge stupid LET’S EXAMINE THIS CLAIM IN DETAIL……..
- 56. The best means available to assess this cost is again by comparison You are about to see why!!!! Gotthard Base Tunnel A single comparison here will suffice We’ll use the world’s longest tunnel
- 58. Its very deep too!!!
- 59. ROUTE LENGTH 58 km+ Additional shafts 152 km Construction Time 17 Years Construction Team 2,600
- 60. 4 Giant borers used simultaneously
- 61. Tunnel lining
- 62. Cement cladding
- 63. MAIN SHAFT 58 kM AUXILIARY SHAFTS 152 kM Let’s build it across the Forth for comparison Oor wee tunnel Now the Swiss one
- 64. TOTAL COST AS OF NOV 2010 £ 6,300m
- 65. Now the Forth’s Bored Tunnel Option FETA commissioned this study in JAN 2005
- 66. 66 This detailed 80 page report was commission to examine FRC options FORTH ESTUARY TRANSPORT AUTHORITY Second Forth Road Crossing Consolidated report Jan 2005 FABER MAUNSELL
- 67. Page 23 ..Bored Tunnel cost..
- 68. £598M Why did FETA remove this document from their web site???
- 69. SCALE MODELS Forth tunnel 8km You won’t believe it!!! Cost £6,300m
- 70. 70 The Occasion Finance Secretary John Swinney Scottish Parliament Dec. 19th, 2007 The Statement “I have the cost estimates..” “A bored tunnel would cost.”. ..£6,600m
- 71. 71 BACK TO HOLLYROOD I'm still awaiting an answer to the following simple question Quote to me “.. Remember we are just laymen” Not one MSP has questioned these outrageous costs Labour started this cost fiasco SNP continued AUDIT SCOTLAND has never investigated these costs “Please provide a list of more expensive comparable bridges” YOU JUDGE
- 72. 72 “Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” Aldous Huxley
- 73. 73 Thank you
Notas do Editor
- COSTING -costing history
- COSTING -costing history
- COSTING - Do you want to review the costs: look at the alterations?
- GRAPH 1 - Let’s now look at some graphs on contemporary bridges of various designs .America, Far East & Europe Note the costs are all inflated to 2016 prices; that is when the FRC is meant to be finished and is priced accordingly. One can see the costs vary widely BUT the FRC is the most expensive
- CABLE STAYED ONLY - As the FRC is to be a Cable stayed design this slide illustrates these bridges only. Again a huge discrepancy.
- LENGTH - If we now look at the lengths of bridges; not the sole criteria environmental and geographic conditions are obviously contributory factor on cost. I agree but obviously the larger the structure the more likely it is to be more expensive. i.e. is size the reason the FRC is so expensive – afraid not –it’s tiny.
- COST per M - Extrapolating the bridge size to a cost per meter basis – we have an even more astonishing comparator. Why?? I do have some of the answers but will deal with them later. I have to say these slides only illustrate a few of the bridges I examined. I promise you the selected ones on the slides are typical and not selected to show the FRC in the worst light.
- AKASHI KAIKYO - This is the most expensive bridge ever built; a suspension bridge; fierce river currents and earthquake proof with huge hydraulic dampers.
- Lets now examine the biggest contemporary structure ever built – it is recent and European Crossing where labour/ material costs are comparable with the UK. The Øresund project. One of the Engineering Megastructure of the world. Some of you may have seen it on the BBC.
- ORESUND CROSSING Now let’s look at the price. I have it at £3.75 billion against the Oresund at £3.75 Billion. When I first contacted Transport Scotland they said it was not possible to compare bridges; the geology, environment etc were all so different. Later Holyrood was presented with an answer to a similar question –The major part of that response was the cost of comparative bridge.
- ORESUND CROSSING It’s not just me – Prof John Kay, you may have seen him on newsnight from time to time. He is even more scathing than I am - and he’s a government advisor.
- SEVERN- Let’s move on to the Severn Bridge- it is even more apt for a comparison. You may recall the FRC was reduced last year from a multimodal to a road only crossing with a very much reduced access road now it is a similar structure to the 2nd Severn Crossing
- SEVERN Here we have a UK project –similar labour material costs, identical geology and both replacement cable stayed bridges.
- SEVERN Before we leave it – look again at the difference in specification. Laigns built the bridge while Belfour’s did the English motorway access and Costain did the Welsh side. Again it was on time and on price and a PPP project. Its longer, its wider and access roads are 4 times longer and at a THIRD of the COST
- WORLD BRIDGES - I have 5 world bridges to show you – I actually have many more but these will suffice
- VASCO DA GAMA - The Portuguese don’t only produce good footballers. (Eusebio) and win world cups. Look at the construction time; life and wind shielding
- VASCO DA GAMA - The Portuguese don’t only produce good footballers. (Eusebio) and win world cups. Look at the construction time; life and wind shielding
- TUNNEL -I know some advocate a tunnel; I am looking only at cost but do have the most astonishing figure to reveal
- TUNNEL -This was no small project; but an in depths study of all the options to be considered for the replacement crossing. It included locations, all types of structures and costs.