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Military Decision Making Process (Mar 08) 1



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Military Decision Making Process (Mar 08) 1

  1. 1. The Military Decision Making Process March 2008 FM 5-0, June 2005 FM 34-130, 1994
  2. 2. Military Decision-Making Process FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-1 thru 3-3 <ul><li>A planning model that establishes procedures for analyzing a mission, developing, analyzing, and comparing courses of action against criteria of success and each other, selecting the optimum course of action, and producing a plan or order </li></ul><ul><li>Applies across the spectrum of conflict and range of military operations </li></ul><ul><li>Helps organize the thought process of commanders and staff </li></ul>Receipt of Mission (Initial Assessment) Mission Analysis COA Development COA Comparison COA Analysis (War-game) Orders Production COA Approval
  3. 3. Roles of Commander & Staff <ul><li>The commander is in charge of the military decision-making process and decides what procedures to use in each situation. </li></ul><ul><li>The commander’s personal role is central: he disciplines the staff to meet the requirement of time, planning horizons, simplicity, and level of detail </li></ul><ul><li>Commanders do this by visualizing (operational framework), describing (commanders intent, guidance, and CCIR), and directing (COA selection) operations </li></ul><ul><li>Staff sections prepare and continuously update estimates and make sound recommendations to help the commander make decisions </li></ul><ul><li>The CofS or XO manages, coordinates, and disciplines the staff’s work and provides quality control </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-4 thru 3-10
  4. 4. Commander’s Actions in MDMP Staff Estimates (continual) <ul><li>Reinforces initial guidance to subordinate commanders </li></ul><ul><li>Receives feedback on Warno 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Reinforces guidance </li></ul><ul><li>Receives feedback on Warno 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Discusses approved COA w/ subordinate commanders </li></ul><ul><li>Receives initial backbrief / feedback on Warno 3 </li></ul>Commander’s Estimate (continual) <ul><li>RECEIPT OF MISSION </li></ul><ul><li>Issue Cdr’s Initial Guidance </li></ul><ul><li>MISSION ANALYSIS </li></ul><ul><li>Approve Restated Mission </li></ul><ul><li>State Commander’s Intent </li></ul><ul><li>Approve Initial CCIR </li></ul>COA DEVELOPMENT COA ANALYSIS (War-game) COA COMPARISON <ul><li>COA APPROVAL </li></ul><ul><li>Approve COA </li></ul><ul><li>Refined CDRs Intent/CCIR </li></ul><ul><li>HPT List </li></ul><ul><li>ORDERS PRODUCTION </li></ul><ul><li>Approve Order </li></ul>REHEARSAL EXECUTION & ASSESSMENT WARNO 1 WARNO 2 WARNO 3
  5. 5. Receipt of Mission <ul><li>MDMP begins with the receipt or deduction of a new mission by the commander and staff </li></ul><ul><li>Purpose of this step it to plan the preparation </li></ul><ul><li>Steps in receipt of mission are as follows . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Operations Section issues a warning order staff to alert them of the pending planning process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Staff prepares for mission analysis by gathering the tools </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Staff updates estimates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commander and staff conduct a quick initial assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commander issues his initial guidance and operational timeline </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Headquarters issues a warning order to subordinate and supporting units </li></ul></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-12 thru 3-15 MDMP Step 1
  6. 6. Prepare for Mission Analysis <ul><li>Gather the tools . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher headquarters’ order </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maps of the area of operations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Own and higher headquarters’ SOPs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Appropriate Field Manuals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Existing staff estimates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other materials and products required </li></ul></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-13
  7. 7. Conduct an Initial Assessment <ul><li>Determine the time available from mission receipt to mission execution </li></ul><ul><li>Determine the time needed to plan, prepare for, and execute the mission for own and subordinate units </li></ul><ul><li>Determine the intelligence preparation of the battlefield </li></ul><ul><li>Additional factors to consider . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ambient light requirements for planning, rehearsals, and movement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The staff’s experience, cohesiveness, and level of rest or stress </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The critical product of this assessment is an initial allocation of available time </li></ul><ul><li>Staff estimates already current and those that need updating </li></ul><ul><li>Time required to position critical elements-to include C2 nodes-for the upcoming operation </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-13
  8. 8. Issue Commander’s Initial Guidance <ul><li>How to abbreviate the MDMP, if required </li></ul><ul><li>Initial time allocation </li></ul><ul><li>Necessary coordination to perform, including LNOs to dispatch </li></ul><ul><li>Initial IR or CCIR </li></ul><ul><li>Authorized movement </li></ul><ul><li>Additional tasks the commander wants the staff to do </li></ul><ul><li>Collaborative planning times and locations </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-15
  9. 9. Issue a Warning Order <ul><li>Issued to subordinate and supporting units </li></ul><ul><li>Uses the five-paragraph format </li></ul><ul><li>Includes as a minimum . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Type of operation (such as offensive or defensive) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>General location of the operation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Initial time line </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Movement or reconnaissance to initiate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Any collaborative planning sessions directed by the commander </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Initial IR or CCIR, and ISR tasks </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Mission Analysis <ul><li>Allows the commander to begin his battlefield visualization </li></ul><ul><li>The result is to define the tactical problem and beginning the process of determining feasible solutions </li></ul><ul><li>The commander conducts his own mission analysis so that he has a frame of reference </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipation and prior preparation are keys to a timely mission analysis </li></ul><ul><li>A thorough mission analysis is crucial to planning </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-15 MDMP Step 2
  11. 11. Mission Analysis Steps <ul><li>1. Analyze the higher headquarters' order. </li></ul><ul><li>2. Conduct initial IPB. </li></ul><ul><li>3. Determine specified, implied & essential tasks. </li></ul><ul><li>4. Review available assets. </li></ul><ul><li>5. Determine constraints. </li></ul><ul><li>6. Identify critical facts and assumptions. </li></ul><ul><li>7. Conduct risk assessment. </li></ul><ul><li>8. Determine initial CCIR. </li></ul><ul><li>9. Determine initial recon annex. </li></ul><ul><li>10. Plan for available time. </li></ul><ul><li>11. Write the restated mission. </li></ul><ul><li>12. Conduct a mission analysis briefing. </li></ul><ul><li>13. Approve the restated mission. </li></ul><ul><li>14. Develop the initial commander’s intent. </li></ul><ul><li>15. Issue the commander’s guidance. </li></ul><ul><li>16. Issue a warning order. </li></ul><ul><li>17. Review facts & assumptions. </li></ul>FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-16 thru 3-29
  12. 12. Analyze the Higher HQ’s Order <ul><li>Thoroughly analyze the higher headquarters' order to establish horizontal and vertical nesting, not just for maneuver, but also for all combat support and combat service support </li></ul><ul><li>Misinterpretation results in wasted time; seek clarification immediately </li></ul><ul><li>Commander and staff must ensure they completely understand . . . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher and two-higher headquarters’ . . . </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Commander’s intent </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mission </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Concept of operation, including deception plan </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Time line for mission execution </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Available assets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Area of Operations </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Missions of adjacent units </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assigned area of operations </li></ul></ul>Mission Analysis Step 1 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-16
  13. 13. Conduct Initial IPB <ul><li>IPB is the systematic, continuous process of analyzing the threat and the effects of the environment of the unit </li></ul><ul><li>Designed to support the staff estimate and MDMP </li></ul><ul><li>Analytical methodology employed as part of intelligence planning to reduce uncertainties concerning the enemy, environment, and terrain for all types of operations </li></ul><ul><li>Staff officers must assist the S-2 in developing IPB products to include SITTEMPs within their own areas of expertise or functional area </li></ul><ul><li>IPB starts during mission analysis, refined during the rest of the MDMP, and is continuous throughout preparation and execution of operations </li></ul>Mission Analysis Step 2 FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-17 thru 3-18
  14. 14. A Four Step Process: <ul><li>Define the Operational Environment </li></ul><ul><li>Describe the Environmental Effects </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluate the Threat </li></ul><ul><li>Determine threat Course of Action </li></ul>Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) FM 5-0, 2005, p. 3-17 thru 3-18
  15. 15. Define the Battlefield Environment <ul><li>Identifying for further analysis specific features of the environment or activities within it, and the physical space where they exist. </li></ul><ul><li>Define the battlefield environment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify significant characteristics of the environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify the limits of the command’s AO and battle space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Establish the limits of the AI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluate existing data bases and identify intelligence gaps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Collect the material and intelligence required to conduct the remainder of IPB </li></ul></ul>FM 34-130, 1994, p. 1-1 & 2-1 IPB Step 1
  16. 16. The Operational Environment Operational Environment Information Nature and Stability of the State Regional and Global Relationship Economics Technology Time Demographics Physical Environment Military Capabilities External Organizations National Will Operational Environment Information Information Nature and Stability of the State Nature and Stability of the State Regional and Global Relationship Regional and Global Relationship Economics Economics Technology Technology Time Time Demographics Demographics Physical Environment Physical Environment Military Capabilities Military Capabilities External Organizations External Organizations National Will National Will
  17. 17. Step 1 - Define the Operational Environment <ul><li>Road to War </li></ul><ul><li>Area of Operation </li></ul><ul><li>Area of Influence </li></ul><ul><li>Area of Intelligence Responsibility </li></ul><ul><li>Area of Interest </li></ul>Define the Battlefield Environment
  18. 18. <ul><li>Area of Operation </li></ul><ul><li>Area of Influence </li></ul><ul><li>Area of Intelligence Responsibility </li></ul><ul><li>Area of Interest </li></ul>Identify the Physical Environment
  19. 19. Area of Operations <ul><li>Where the Commander is given authority and responsibility to conduct military operations </li></ul><ul><li>Assigned by higher based on METT-T </li></ul><ul><li>Defined by boundaries </li></ul><ul><li>Of sufficient size to allow completion of mission </li></ul><ul><li>Limits freedom of maneuver </li></ul>
  20. 20. Area of Interest <ul><li>Geographical area from which information and intelligence are required to execute successful tactical operations and to plan for future operations. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Threats ability to project power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Threats ability to move forces into AO </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Amount of time needed to accomplish friendly mission </li></ul></ul><ul><li>That part of the battlefield which contains significant terrain features or enemy units and weapon systems that may affect your unit’s near or future battle </li></ul>
  21. 21. Area of Interest AI Area of Operations X Not within AI 30 km 30 km 30 km 30 km 30 km 30 km Within AI
  22. 22. Area of Interest <ul><li>AI should be large enough to answer the commander’s Information Requirements; yet small enough to prevent analytical efforts from becoming unfocused </li></ul><ul><li>Determining the AI depends on the unit mission and threat capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Considerations for your AI should be expressed in terms of distance, based on: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How your unit attacks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How the enemy attacks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What your commander needs to know </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. AI with terrain considerations Area of Operations AI HWY 1 2 3 TRAIL
  24. 24. Describe the Battlefield’s Effects <ul><li>The determination of how the battlefield environment affects both threat and friendly operations. </li></ul><ul><li>Describes how the terrain, weather, and other battlefield aspects affect friendly and enemy fires and movement. </li></ul><ul><li>Describe the battlefield’s effects [MCOO] </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Analyze the battlefield environment. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>terrain analysis (OAKOC) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>weather analysis </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>analysis of other characteristics of the battlefield (e.g. population status) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Describe the battlefield’s effects on threat and friendly capabilities and broad COAs </li></ul></ul>FM 34-130, 1994, p. 1-2 & 2-1 IPB Step 2
  25. 25. Define the Battlefield Environment <ul><li>Terrain Analysis (OACOK) </li></ul><ul><li>Effects of Terrain on Operations </li></ul><ul><li>Civil Considerations (ASCOPE) </li></ul><ul><li>Weather Forecast (and Lunar Data) </li></ul><ul><li>Effects of Weather on Operations </li></ul><ul><li>Overall Assessment </li></ul>Step 2 - Describe the Environmental Effects Describe the Battlefield's Effects
  26. 26. <ul><li>How will the terrain affect the enemy’s COAs? </li></ul><ul><li>How can friendly forces best exploit opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>provided by the terrain? </li></ul><ul><li>How will the terrain & </li></ul><ul><li>weather affect friendly </li></ul><ul><li>and enemy systems? </li></ul><ul><li>Terrain Analysis can be used to maximize friendly </li></ul><ul><li>opportunities and minimize enemy exploitation. </li></ul>Terrain Analysis
  27. 27. Terrain Analysis <ul><li>Develop engagement areas </li></ul><ul><li>Site battle positions </li></ul><ul><li>Identify enemy and friendly infiltration lanes </li></ul><ul><li>Identify potential avenues of approach </li></ul><ul><li>Position or site weapon systems or other assets </li></ul>Commanders use terrain to:
  28. 28. Terrain Analysis <ul><li>Terrain team (Engineers) </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluate terrain through map analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluate terrain through reconnaissance </li></ul>Affect on military operations ( Friendly and Threat )
  29. 29. Terrain Analysis <ul><li>Cross-country movement overlay </li></ul><ul><li>Drainage overlay </li></ul><ul><li>Lines of communications (roads, rail, waterways) </li></ul><ul><li>Military aspects of terrain (OCOKA / OAKOC) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aerial photos </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Line of site (LOS) index </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. Cross Country Mobility <ul><li>Percent Slope (hills, mountains) </li></ul><ul><li>Vegetation (trees, forests, swamps) </li></ul><ul><li>Water (streams, lakes, rivers) </li></ul><ul><li>Soil (gravel, sand, clay, peat) </li></ul>Affected By:
  31. 31. Describe the Battlefield Effects (Military Aspects of Terrain) <ul><li>Classify terrain as it pertains to maneuverability into one of three categories: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>UNRESTRICTED. Free of any restriction to movement. Units maneuver at doctrinal speeds/distances. Nothing needs to be done to enhance mobility. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RESTRICTED. Terrain hinders movement. Units must adjust doctrinal distances or speeds. Some effort required to enhance mobility . </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SEVERELY RESTRICTED. Terrain severely hinders movement. Units cannot travel at doctrinal distances and speeds. </li></ul></ul>
  32. 32. Mobility Classifications <ul><li>Unrestricted: 0-30% slope </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Free of restrictions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Restricted : 31-45% slope </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hinders movement; little effort needed to enhance mobility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Use march formation with only minimal delay </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Severely Restricted : >45% slope </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Severely hinders / slows movement unless some effort is made to enhance mobility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>examples: minefields, cities, heavily wooded areas </li></ul></ul>
  33. 33. LOA (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X
  34. 34. Military Aspects of Terrain <ul><li>Obstacles </li></ul><ul><li>Avenues of Approach </li></ul><ul><li>Key Terrain </li></ul><ul><li>Observation and Fields of Fire </li></ul><ul><li>Cover and Concealment </li></ul>
  35. 35. LOA (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X
  36. 36. 70 K <ul><li>Outline terrain in Purple </li></ul><ul><li>or Blue . </li></ul><ul><li>Identify with a “K” in the </li></ul><ul><li>center of the outline. </li></ul><ul><li>Include in the legend. </li></ul>Key Terrain <ul><li>Any locality or area the seizure, retention, or control of which affords a marked advantage to either combatant. </li></ul><ul><li>Must be evaluated by assessing the impact of its seizure by either force upon results of battle. </li></ul><ul><li>Varies with the level of command. </li></ul>
  37. 37. Avenues of Approach <ul><li>An air or ground route of an attacking force of dimension, leading to an objective (terrain or troop) </li></ul><ul><li>Axis of Advance to the objective </li></ul><ul><li>Good communications </li></ul><ul><li>Some cover and concealment </li></ul><ul><li>Little canalization </li></ul><ul><li>Reasonable mobility </li></ul>Provide: * Identified for both AIR and GROUND OBJ AA 1 AAA 1
  38. 38. Mobility Corridors Evaluate & Prioritize X OBJ A B C D F X X OBJ AA 1 AA 2 K K
  39. 39. LOA (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X II II II II I I II II II II II II II II II X X II II II AA3C AA4A AA4B AA3B K1 K3 K7a K7b K4 K5 K6 K8 K9 K2
  40. 40. LOA (PL Gold) PL Zinc PL Silver XXX X AA3C AA4A AA4B AA3B II II II II I I II II II II II II II II II X X II II II K1 K3 K7a K7b K4 K5 K6 K8 K9 K2
  41. 41. Describe the Battlefield Effects (Military Aspects of Terrain) <ul><li>Other aspects of the Battlefield include: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Logistical Infrastructure (Sources of potable water, power production facilities, natural resources, communications system, transportation system) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Population Demographics (Education levels, cultural distinctions, religious beliefs) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic Conditions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Politics (Local, regional and international, treaties, ‘unofficial’ politics (gangs, warlords)) </li></ul></ul>
  43. 43. Describe the Battlefield Effects <ul><li>Military aspects of weather </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Visibility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Winds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Precipitation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cloud Cover </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Temperature and Humidity </li></ul></ul>
  44. 44. Visibility <ul><li>Provides concealment </li></ul><ul><li>Favors the offense </li></ul><ul><li>Impedes R&S </li></ul><ul><li>Hinders target acquisition </li></ul>Reduced Visibility:
  45. 45. Light Data A major factor in evaluating visibility is the amount of available light Date BMNT SR SS EENT MR MS % Illum 10 0600 0641 1722 1803 2309 111058 3 11 0559 0640 1723 1804 120004 121153 60
  46. 46. Wind <ul><li>Reduce visibility </li></ul><ul><li>Limit Airborne and Aviation Ops </li></ul><ul><li>Impair Communications </li></ul><ul><li>Affect Smoke and Chemical Ops </li></ul>Strong Winds:
  47. 47. Precipitation <ul><li>Maneuver </li></ul><ul><li>Visibility </li></ul><ul><li>Electronic & Optical Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Personnel </li></ul>Heavy rain or snow can impact:
  48. 48. Cloud Cover <ul><li>Limits Illumination </li></ul><ul><li>Limits Solar Heating of targets for IR </li></ul><ul><li>systems </li></ul><ul><li>Degrades Target Acquisition </li></ul><ul><li>Hinders IR Guided Weapon Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Limits Aviation Ops </li></ul>
  49. 49. Temperature and Humidity <ul><li>Impact the capabilities of personnel and equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce aircraft payloads </li></ul><ul><li>Increase dependence on logistical support </li></ul>Extremes of either may:
  50. 50. Thermal Crossover <ul><li>Temperatures of targets and objects on the battlefield at night are important for the use of thermal sights and forward looking infrared (FLIR) devices. </li></ul><ul><li>A difference in temperature or thermal contrast is required for these devices to &quot;see&quot; a target. </li></ul><ul><li>Normally, heating and cooling are at a different rate for the target and background. </li></ul><ul><li>Twice a day, in the morning and evening, targets without internal heating come to relatively the same temperature as the background. </li></ul><ul><li>During thermal crossover the thermal device does not have the capability to &quot;see&quot; the target. </li></ul><ul><li>Time of thermal crossover may be only a few seconds when the morning sun strikes a target, or for several minutes on cloudy adverse weather days; this depends on the threshold temperature's contrast required by the thermal device. </li></ul><ul><li>Tactical decision aids can be used to predict these temperature differences for planners and estimate length of thermal crossover periods. </li></ul>
  51. 51. Temperature Inversion <ul><li>In the weather phenomenon known as thermal inversion, a layer of cooler air is trapped near the ground by a layer of warmer air above. </li></ul><ul><li>During the periods of temperature inversion which often follow BMNT, it is possible to rapidly cover a very large area with dense smoke and non-persistent chemical agents will take longer to dissipate. </li></ul>
  52. 52. Battlefield Effects Terrain analysis MCOO Weather analysis Weather Chart Other characteristics EFFECTS The “SO WHAT”
  53. 53. Visibility/Prec 0600 1200 1800 2400 CEILING: NONE VISIBILITY: .8 KM PRECIPITATION: LT FREEZING RAIN CEILING: NONE VISIBILITY: 3 KM PRECIPITATION: LT FREEZING RAIN CEILING: 1200 M VISIBILITY: 18 KM PRECIPITATION: LT RAIN CEILING: 1500 M VISIBILITY: 20 KM PRECIPITATION: NONE 10 08 46 F 59 F 59 F 46 F SS:1800 MS:0705 MR:0142 SR:0712 BMNT:0646 EENT: 1825 Precipitation Significant Impacts : Good Concealment at night due to low illumination, rain and fog limit visibility from until 1200 TEMP WIND TEMP WIND TEMP WIND 10 TEMP WIND 04 FOG LIFTING FOG CLOUDY CLOUDY 0000 Wind Direction RW AVN SMOKE Dismounts RISTA Wheeled Tracks ADA Chem Wind Direction Visibility/Ceiling Visibility Visibility Visibility Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Visibility Visibility Visibility Visibility Visibility Visibility Precipitation Precipitation Visibility/Ceiling Precipitation Precipitation Visibility/Ceiling Wind Direction Wind Direction Visibility/Prec Visibility/Prec Wind Direction Wind Direction Wind Direction Precipitation Precipitation 0600 1200 1800 2400 23% ENEMY US
  54. 54. Weather Effects Chart
  55. 55. WEATHER EFFECTS WEATHER EFFECTS ON FRIENDLY +Increased detection, recognition, and identification ranges for thermal imaging systems +Brigade has thermal overmatch against the OPFOR from ______to_______. +Low illum (<23%) after 2200 supports aerial insertions -Winds support enemy use of Chemical Munitions -Only 12 hours, 59 minutes of useable daylight -Limited Image Intensifying Night Vision System Usage -Limited Operations during the hours of darkness -Big Changes in Barometric pressure may affect gunnery accuracy -Short days, long nights, combined with low illum levels and late Moon Rise will result in decreased total engineer effort -Unfamiliarity with terrain combined with low ilum after 2230 (<23%) will slow BRT/Scout Infiltration -High Wind gusts during hours of darkness may affect UAV launch and SIGINT Antenna Height -High winds may affect accuracy of M1/M2 ammo at max effective range -High winds may affect Artillery accuracy due to extended time of flight
  56. 56. WEATHER EFFECTS ON ENEMY +Wind direction supports use of Chemical Munitions +Low illum (<23%) will conceal enemy troop concentrations +Low Illum after 2145 (MS) will support recon infiltration -Lack of TIS will affect enemy movement tempo during hours of reduced illum -Low ceilings and reduced vis will affect use of rotary wing AC (SOKOL) until after 1000 local -High winds after 2200 may affect enemy ability to conduct air insertion of infantry (resort to multiple truck insertions) -Low illum after 2200 reduces target acquisition of shoulder fired SAM system WEATHER EFFECTS
  57. 57. <ul><li>A reas. </li></ul><ul><li>S tructures. </li></ul><ul><li>C apabilities. </li></ul><ul><li>O rganizations. </li></ul><ul><li>P eople. </li></ul><ul><li>E vents. </li></ul>ASCOPE IEDS SAF TTPS Battlefield Environment/ Effects AIF Supporters Vulnerable Population Political Wing Religious Boundaries Tribal Boundaries Economics Protected Sites Local Authorities Enemy Strategies AIF Organization Phases Information Operations
  58. 58. Areas/Structures Buildings Blue Prints DC Camps Street Patterns Urban Patterns Criminal Enclaves Underlying Terrain Construction Materials Key Commercial Zones Subterranean Passages Political Precincts and Districts Orgs/People/Events NGOs Media Culture Loyalties Authority(s) Perceptions Relationships Labor Unions Demographics Groups & Sub-groups Religious Holidays Capabilities Fuel Fire/Rescue Electrical Power Transportation Communications Health Services “ To help analyze many civil considerations, commanders and staffs can provide structure to their assessments by categorizing according to six characteristics: areas , structures , capabilities , organizations , people , and events (ASCOPE).” Terrain Society Infra- Structure FM 3-06, Ch 9 ASCOPE Interpreted
  59. 59. Evaluate the Threat <ul><li>The determination of threat force capabilities and the doctrinal principle, tactics, techniques, and procedure threat forces prefer to use </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluate the Threat [Doctrinal Templates] </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Update or create threat models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>convert threat doctrine or pattern of operation to graphics (doctrinal template) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>describe threat tactics and options </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>identify high value targets (HVTs) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify threat capabilities </li></ul></ul>FM 34-130, 1994, p. 1-2 & 2-1 IPB Step 3
  60. 60. <ul><li>Disposition (2 levels up min) </li></ul><ul><li>Composition (OB) (Line & Block Chart) </li></ul><ul><li>Strength (Enemy Unit Strength – %) </li></ul><ul><li>Enemy Key Systems Capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Enemy Unit Capabilities by Warfighting Functions (WFF) </li></ul><ul><li>Enemy System Capabilities by WFF </li></ul><ul><li>Blue Systems vs. Red Systems Capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Blue Artillery vs. Red Artillery Ranges </li></ul><ul><li>Force Ratios </li></ul><ul><li>Enemy Threat Model </li></ul>Define the Battlefield Environment Evaluate the Threat Step 3 - Evaluate the Threat Describe the Battlefield's Effects
  61. 61. Know Your Threat Leadership Ideology External Support Environment/ Geography Objectives Target Selection Organizational/ Operational Patterns Phasing/ Timing Attributes of The Threat


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