The mosaic of causal theory
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causal pluralism, causality, causal mosaic
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The mosaic of causal theory
- 1. The mosaic of causal theory* Federica Russo Philosophy | Humanities | Amsterdam russofederica.wordpress.com | @federicarusso *Joint work with Phyllis Illari
- 2. Overview Approaches to causality Conceptual analysis, analysis of scientific practice Causal pluralism A plurality of pluralism How to build a causal mosaic A case study A causal mosaic for exposomic science 2
- 4. Conceptual analysis What explicates the concept of ‘causality’ What makes causal claims true What is causality, metaphysically 4
- 5. How good are intuitions? Exploit everyday intuitions to draw conclusions about the metaphysics of causation from everyday or toy examples Examples The ‘Billy and Suzy’ episodes The assassins … Some conclusions There are two concepts of cause: production and dependence Counterfactual accounts are seriously flawed … 5
- 6. Analysis of scientific practice Growing CitS / PSP / PI Philosophical questions about causation (and other topics) are motivated by methodological and practical problems in real science Start from scientific practice to bottom up philosophy Partly descriptive and partly normative Examples Causal assessment in medicine Causal reasoning in quantitative social science … Some conclusions Causal assessment has two evidential components: mechanisms and difference- making ‘Variation’ (rather than regularity) guides causal reasoning … 6
- 8. Making sense of a vast intellectual enterprise Philosophical theorising about causes Long history, ups and downs, harsh criticisms, dominant views, etc Expansion of philosophical theorising about causes Beyond physics, attention to the special sciences, and medicine Attention for questions about use, besides traditional metaphysics, epistemology, and semantics 8
- 9. How many concepts? Many! Causality Polysemic, thick concept Causal verbs Pulling, pushing, binding, … Causal methods Tracking what varies with what Understanding what produces what, and how, and when Different sources of evidence Evidence of difference making, of production … 9
- 10. 10 Causal pluralism: Causality cannot be reduced to one single concept but has to be analysed using several concepts
- 12. Types of causing Anscombian pluralism: pulling, pushing, binding, … Aristotelian causes Concepts of causation Hall: Dependence vs production Types of inferences Inferential bases, inferential targets. Epistemic causality Sources of evidence Difference-making and mechanisms Methods for causal inference Quantitative, qualitative, observational, experimental, … 12
- 13. Not anything goes, but something does Diversity of causes Production and difference-making Evidence Causal methods 13
- 15. 5 philosophical questions Metaphysics What is causality? What kind of things are causes and effects? Semantics What does it mean that C causes E? Epistemology What notions guide causal reasoning? How can we use C to explain E? Methodology How to establish whether C causes E? Or how much of C causes E? Use What to do once we know that C causes E? 5 scientific problems Inference Does C cause E? To what extent? Prediction What to expect if C does (not) cause E? Explanation How does C cause or prevent E? Control What factors to hold fixed to study the relation between C and E? Reasoning What considerations enter in establishing whether / how / to what extent C causes E? 15
- 18. Inference, Prediction, Explanation, Control, Reasoning Causal Mosaic Metaphysics, Semantics, Epistemology, Methodology, Use Necessary and sufficient Levels Evidence Probabilistic causality Counterfact uals Manipulatio n Invariance Exogeneity Simpson’s Paradox ProcessMechanism Information Dispositions Regularity Variation Action Inference Validity Truth 18
- 19. Unifying the fragments into the ‘causal mosaic’ A (causal) mosaic is picture made of tiles Each fragment has a role that Is determined by the scientific challenge / philosophical question it addresses Stands in a relation with neighboring concepts The causal mosaic is dynamic, partly depends on scientists’ / philosophers’ perspectives 19
- 20. PHILOSOPHICAL METHODOLOGY AND PHILOSOPHY OF CAUSALITY 20
- 21. The philosophical consequences of causal pluralism Building networks of concepts No winning concepts Constructionist epistemology Use of examples and counterexamples 21
- 22. Accounts of causality Counterexamples Scope Relevant questions How many Found in the literature All possible worlds. What does causation logically mean? One logically possible example. Witches casting spells; Angels protecting glasses. Worlds close to the actual world. What is causation metaphysically? One metaphysically possible example. World with reverse temporal direction; Salmon’s moving spot of light. This world. What is causation in this world? One or more real examples. Kinetic theory of gases / quantum mechanics; Billy and Suzy / bombing the enemy town. Some region in this world. What is causation in biochemistry, or physics? A few real examples in the relevant domain. Causality in protein synthesis mechanisms. Some region of this world at some time. What kind of causal explanation can we give of the economic crisis in 1929? Can we give the same kind of explanation of the economic crisis now? A few real examples in the relevant domain at the relevant time; Typical not skewed examples. Causality in the discovery of protein synthesis. Causality in systems biological approaches to protein synthesis. 22
- 23. EXPOsOMICS 23
- 25. From GWAS to EWAS The limits of genomics An expanded notion of exposure Internal and external exposure – the exposome Better understanding of disease mechanisms The missing link: how environmental exposure and disease are connected Go down to the molecular level Better prediction and health policy planning Earlier and more accurate prediction Identification of areas for public health intervention 25
- 26. Environmental exposure and disease Traditional epidemiology Establish correlation between classes of environmental factors and classes of disease Molecular epidemiology Measurement at molecular level Identify biomarkers of exposure, of early clinical changes, of disease 26
- 27. Measure chemicals in water, air, etc Identify biomarkers of exposure Detect biomarkers of early clinical changes Match with biomarkers of disease 27 Make categories of environmental factors Match with categories of disease
- 28. Goals Identify biomarkers at key stages of disease evolution Match biomarkers to trace evolution of disease (meeting-in-the-middle methodology) Challenges Understand link <environmental exposure—disease> Handle unknowns of the system Torture (big) data sets produced Identify causal relations in spite of large interaction effects Reinterpret micro-links at macro-level 28
- 29. Selected epistemological and metaphysical questions What evidence? Mechanisms? Difference-making? What account of causality? Information? Capacities? What ‘levels’? Generic, single case? Macro, micro? Biological, social? 29
- 30. Causal mosaic for exposomics Meeting in the middle methodology Relation between background knowledge and new causal discoveries. Exposome New (causal) concept; redefines the causal context of causal relations at different levels take place. Processes •Studying the evolution of biomarkers is tracing processes of molecular changes Difference-making and mechanisms •Their interplay is crucial to establish causal relations: •Biomarkers of disease make a difference in the probability of disease This probability raising is substantiated by a plausible mechanism. Production-Information •A test case for an account of production in terms of information Levels of causation •EWAS for the population, what about the individual? •Integration of factors of different nature (social and biological) into the same explanatory framework. Capacity •A test case for capacities: is the predictive power of a biomarker due to a capacity of some chemicals to induce molecular changes? 30
- 31. TO SUM UP AND CONCLUDE 31
- 32. Pluralisms Philosophical investigation of causality has at least two main traditions Conceptual analysis Analysis of scientific practice Analyses of scientific practices report a plurality of pluralisms In the methods, concepts, meanings, sources of evidence, … Can we make (philosophical) sense of such pluralism? 32
- 33. Liberalising methodologies Philosophical traditions in context (Philosophical) Questions and methods Philosophy of causality Inclusive, collaborative, engaging 33
- 34. 34
Notas do Editor
- Philosophers have long tried to pin down the one meaning of causality. But are these efforts worthy? In this talk I argue that we need to causality differently. I suggest that philosophical theorising has to support scientific methodology in providing answers to key challenges: inference, explanation, prediction, control, and reasoning. To do so, philosophical theorising has to carefully distinguish epistemological, metaphysical, and methodological questions about causality. This leads me to delineate a pluralistic concept of causality in analogy with a mosaic, where each tile is essential to build a picture, but only when put in the right position. I exemplify this way of conceiving of causality using a case study from ‘exposomics’ research.