Presentation to U.S deputy police chiefs: October 4th 2014

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Leading in a Global Environment
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The Future of Crime to 2030

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Source: Sheila Moorcroft
Demographics Values and
lifestyles
Energy and
resources
Competitors
and new
approaches
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World
events
Economic
trends
Legislation
New
technologies
Key
Issues/
question(s)
There are thousands of trends at any one time
How do you make sense of and respond to it all?

4. Driverless cars
4 Google Glass/Oculus rift
Drones/Exoskeletons/Robots
Wearables/Cloaking
Cloud/Big data
Cyber security
IoT and SMART everything
Mobile payments/self serve!
For every action there is an equal
and opposite reaction – Newton
Artificial intelligence
3D printed guns, drugs & ?
One man’s meat is another’s poison
–Lucretius
The future is already here:
it’s just unevenly distributed -
William Gibson
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Crowd-sourcing
Zero cost
40% of existing jobs
eliminated by 2020!
But, talent shortages
and, many new roles
Predictive analytics
Real-time artificial
intelligence
Social networking

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Social
Behavioral monitoring
Instant gratification
Ageing
Lack of trust
Financial instability
Unemployment
Civil unrest
https://uk-mg-bt.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launch?.partner=bt-
1&.rand=1n3ejdfu45vtd#mail

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Proactive forward policy required
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Rising inequality
Cyber security
Transparency vs privacy
Demographics
Time, distance and price
are collapsing
TRUST THE KEY USP!!
Anticipation and preparedness
CRITICAL!! BUT HOW?

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Supply chain threats
Terrorism
Infrastructure damage
Financial risk
Extreme weather
Extraction/fracking
Technology misuse
Conventional and
asymmetric threats
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Individualized crime assessments/organisation data
Exploiting intelligence to assist officers in real-time
Greater focus on cyber crime
Continued fight against drug trafficking/Bitcoins
Open-source intelligence inc video
Legal Clouds
SMART policemen and vehicles
Robo-cops!
Greater risk, change and business management skills
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Horizon scanning
Strategic foresight
Action planning
Change preparedness
Networking
A switch from static news gathering, limited analysis and reactive
response to:
Dynamic intelligence reconnaissance, whole system
thinking and anticipatory response and preparedness

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Graphical pattern finding
Using social & web intelligence to see what’s coming
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Cyprus
crisis
Growth
returns
Ukraine
China
Source: Shaping Tomorrow

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Continuous and systematic scanning
Automatic and
crowd scans for:
search terms,
organizations,
people
scanners,
protesters,
regulators etc.

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1. Geopolitical tensions over access to
strategic water resources could
become more systemically impactful.
2. Among other existential risks is the
possibility that breakthroughs in
artificial intelligence could move
rapidly in unexpected directions
3. The inevitable spread of drone
technology will create new hard-to-address
80 page report read in 20 seconds Auto foresight
capabilities for actors
4. Organized-crime groups or national
militaries have an overwhelming,
dominant and lasting advantage over
defenders could be just one
disruptive technology away. Knowing
which is key?
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5. more ..

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IBM's Watson Can Now
Debate Its Opponents
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Cognitive
technology that
processes information
more like a human
than a computer—by
understanding natural
language, generating
hypotheses based on
evidence and learning
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Structured data analytics
Visual dashboards as early warning systems
Balanced scorecards
Partnership approaches
MMORPGS e.g IFTF
Warcraft equivalents

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Rising interest in mixing
large data sets
e.g crime and happiness
Massive funding for global
intelligence projects
Data fusion e.g GapMinder
Forward Indicators e.g.
Shock Index

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Big Data uses for Foresight
Aim to move from single
keyword to real-time,
multiple meta data searches
Scour the web, extract,
analyze, rank, make it
useful
Collaboration, knowledge
management, search and
discovery, data integration

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Filtering Insights and
Trends by user profile:
e.g. industry, interests, expertise
Sentiment analysis
e.g. fear, excitement
Narrative capture
e.g. ideas
Latent Semantic Indexing
e.g. concept searches
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Requirements
Knowledge management
Systematic
Collaborative
Persistent
National service
Low cost
Benefits
Strategic
Agile
Persistent
Resilient
Innovation
Risk aware
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A national/global law enforcement Oracle?

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Questions? Contact me to receive this
presentation in your
organization?
Mike Jackson
(H) 01902 851918
(O) 01902 851985
(M) 07966 155912
(E) mike.jackson@shapingtomorrow.com
(S)* shapingtomorrow
or visit us at
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