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The Future of Banking
by Anders Sorman-Nilsson
The Future of Banking
Anders Sorman-Nilsson (LLB MBA) is
the founder of Thinque - a strategy
think tank that helps executives and
leaders convert disruptive questions
into proactive, future strategies.

As an Australian-Swedish futurist
and innovation strategist he has
helped executives and leaders on 4
continents map, prepare for, and
strategise for foreseeable and
unpredictable futures.

www.thinquetank.com
Steady Shift Toward Digital Media
200
                                                                      Digital
                                                                      + 18%
150      14
        141.3        16.3                    27.2    32.1
                             18.9    22.9
                     125.1
                             116.8   114     113.6   112.4
100




 50
                                                                  Analogue
  0                                                                - 4.5%
        2008        2009     2010    2011    2012    2013



                Analogue Print              Digital Media
                                                             * US Statistical Abstract, CAGR
Result of Transition from a Single Channel to a Multichannel Strategy


         Increased Online Sales                                             78




          Increased Profitability                                59




Increased Customer Satisfaction                             52




         Increased Offline Sales                 36




                      No Impact         3



                                    0       20        40              60         80

                                                       * Forrester Consulting, 2011
Perceived Branch Convenience Doesn’t Translate Into Actual Visits



          2                 1                   2                                        1
                                                                  10
                           12                                                            15
         17                                     19


                                                                  35
                           35                                                            36
         36
                                                41



                           29                                     34
         26                                                                              29
                                                23

                                                                  14
         19                22                                                            20
                                                16
                                                                  8

       Overall          National             Regional        Community              Credit Union

      Rarely or Never              3-4 Times a Year      Monthly             Weekly                Daily
                                                        * Chadwick Martin Bailey, February 2012, Consumer Survey
Utilization and Interest in Digital Banking Channels


 90

                                83                              82                                   80
       79      79       79                       78                              79
67.5
                                        68               65
 45                                                                      51                  51
                                                                                                                                            42
22.5                                                                                                                     31

                                                                                                                13
  0                                                                                                                                 9
       Check Balance   Manage Account   Transfer Funds   Pay a Bill    Research Products Receive Account Alert Customer Support   Apply for a Loan




                             Use Digital Channels                        Interest in Digital Channel
                                                              *Cisco IBSG, “Winning Strategies for Omnichannel Banking” Report, June 1012
Trust in Banks Has Eroded Since the Financial Meltdown
   70




  52.5




   35




  17.5




    0
     2007   2008    2009     2010    2011              2012



                    USA         UK
                                            * Edelman, Jan 2012, annual Study
Mobile Banking Now Vital to Customer Acquisition
  19
                                                                                          18.2                18.3
        An Increase of 63% over the last 10 Quarters                            16.9
                                                                                                    17.6


14.25
                                                                      14.2
                                                            13.5
                                                  12.8
                                        12
                              11.6
          11.2      11
  9.5




 4.75




   0
        Q3 2010   Q4 2010   Q1 2011   Q2 2011   Q3 2011   Q4 2011   Q1 2012   Q2 2012   Q3 2012   Q4 2012   Q1 2013

                  Percent of Consumers Selecting Mobile banking as a “must have” feature

                                                                                        * FindABetterBank.com, Jan 2013, Survey
Consumer Expect More from Mobile Banking Than They’re Getting

            Notes about account updates and irregular activity                        54



            Making a Payment on a Loan or a Bill                                 51



            Automatic Notifications of Low Balances                         46



            Transferring Money to Other Outside Accounts               44



            Depositing a Check with My Mobile Device                  43



            Automated Bill Reminder                              41



        Other                   17


        0                     15                   30                       45                   60

                                                                                      * Varolli Corporation, Dec 2012
Consumer Expect More from Mobile Banking Than They’re Getting

            Pay Bills                                                                             39%


            Use Phone as ID                                                                       39%


            Organise / Track Rewards                                                           38%

            Receive Offers Based on Location                                                   38%


            View Multiple Account Information                                                  38%


            Calendar to Track Spending                                                      37%


            Make Online Purchases                                                           37%

            Receive Offers Based on Buying Patterns                                      36%


            Make In-Store Purchases                                                33%

            Access / Control Child’s Account                        27%

        0                      0.1                   0.2                     0.3                        0.4

                                                * Raddon Finanicial Group, National Online Consumer Researcg, Autum 2012
The Demographics of Mobile Bankers

18 - 29                  43.5%                        16.8%                  22.4%



30 - 44               35.7%                       24.7%                          27%



45 - 59       14.7%              30.2%                        26.9%



  60 + 6.1%             28.4%                   23.7%

          0                                                                                         0.9

                              Yes                  No                        Total
                                         * US Federal Reserve, Consumer and Mobile Financial Services Report, Jul 2012
In-Branch                        5yr Change In-   5yr Change In-
Customer Activity                Direct Preference
                    Preference                           Branch           Direct


 Open an Account      75%             16%               -11%             +8%

  Buy Products        65%             22%               -13%             +9%

 Resolve an Issue     36%             49%               -17%            +11%

 Transfer Funds       19%             60%               -26%            +29%

 Check Balance        6%              68%               -16%            +28%

Research Products     16%             70%               -28%            +28%

                                              * Novantas Study of Customer Activity, Jan 2011
Product Purchasing by Channels 2010 v 2015
           Current Accounts       84%             9%                    53%             43%

            Savings Account       77%            16%                   38%            59%

                Investments       78%            11%                     58%              28%

                 Mortgages        80%            4%                        72%                 10%

Consumer Finance Production       73%            12%                   32%             47%

                              0   0.375   0.75         1.125   1.5 0         0.375      0.75      1.125       1.5
          Branches                    Agents / Brokers
          Call Centres                Direct Channels                   * EFMA Online Survey Across 150+ Euro Banks
Preference for Retail Banking Products Online, by Market

                                               7%
                                         8%

                                                                35%
                                  10%
 Credit Card
 Time Deposit
 New Account                      11%
 Share Investment
 General Insurance
 ForEx                                              29%
 Bonds, Trusts and Mutual Funds
 Personal Loan
 Fixed Income                           * HSBC and Standard Chartered Survey 2007-09
Top 5 Banks and Credit Unions Have Highest Mobile Penetration

 70%



                                                         Percent of all Online Respondents
52.5%
                                                  40%


 35%                                              30%
                 63%                  61%
                        56%
           53%
                                                  20%
                                41%                              35%
17.5%
                                                        24%                          25%
                                                  10%                  20%     18%



  0%                                               0%

        Have Smart Phone or Tablet                 Bank via Smart Phone or Tablet
   Total           Top 5 Bank          Regional Bank          Community Bank          Credit Union
Who is Anders?
Anders Sorman-Nilsson (LLB MBA) is the founder of Thinque - a strategy think tank that helps
executives and leaders convert disruptive questions into proactive, future strategies.

As an Australian-Swedish futurist and innovation strategist he has helped executives and
leaders on 4 continents map, prepare for, and strategise for both foreseeable and unpredictable
futures. Since founding Thinque in 2005, he has worked with and spoken to clients like Xerox,
Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Cisco, Eli Lilly, SAP, IBM, ABN Amro Bank, Commonwealth Bank,
McCann Erickson and BAE Systems, across diverse cultural and geographic contexts. 

Anders is an active member of TEDGlobal (Oxford 2009 / Edinburgh 2011), has keynoted at
TEDx, guest lectured at University of Technology Sydney Business School, and Anders is on the
prestigious 2013 Million Dollar Roundtable roster. He is a member of the University of Sydney
Global Executive MBA cohort, and has completed executive education at Stanford University and
the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore.
Enquire now www.anderssorman-nilsson.com
Testimonials
“There are those special moments when the right ideas and the right people collide to make magic. This is
one of those times. I want to say a HUGE THANK YOU for all your work to make the Senior Director
Conference both an engaging experience, and a catalyst for change.”

CMO Asia, Fortune 500, Pharmaceutical Industry


“Anders provided an engaging and energetic presentation of real and relevant information to the business
that could be used in all areas across the business both now and moving into the future.“

Head of Regional Portfolio Management Asia, Fortune 500, FMCG 


“Anders' presentation style and fresh content were an excellent and inspirational start to our Summit. It
resulted in only positive feedback from the audience. Anders is very professional and a brilliant thinker and
communicator!”

Management Consultant, Fortune 1000, Banking Industry

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Future of Banking - digital or analogue?

  • 1. The Future of Banking by Anders Sorman-Nilsson
  • 2. The Future of Banking Anders Sorman-Nilsson (LLB MBA) is the founder of Thinque - a strategy think tank that helps executives and leaders convert disruptive questions into proactive, future strategies. As an Australian-Swedish futurist and innovation strategist he has helped executives and leaders on 4 continents map, prepare for, and strategise for foreseeable and unpredictable futures. www.thinquetank.com
  • 3. Steady Shift Toward Digital Media 200 Digital + 18% 150 14 141.3 16.3 27.2 32.1 18.9 22.9 125.1 116.8 114 113.6 112.4 100 50 Analogue 0 - 4.5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Analogue Print Digital Media * US Statistical Abstract, CAGR
  • 4. Result of Transition from a Single Channel to a Multichannel Strategy Increased Online Sales 78 Increased Profitability 59 Increased Customer Satisfaction 52 Increased Offline Sales 36 No Impact 3 0 20 40 60 80 * Forrester Consulting, 2011
  • 5. Perceived Branch Convenience Doesn’t Translate Into Actual Visits 2 1 2 1 10 12 15 17 19 35 35 36 36 41 29 34 26 29 23 14 19 22 20 16 8 Overall National Regional Community Credit Union Rarely or Never 3-4 Times a Year Monthly Weekly Daily * Chadwick Martin Bailey, February 2012, Consumer Survey
  • 6. Utilization and Interest in Digital Banking Channels 90 83 82 80 79 79 79 78 79 67.5 68 65 45 51 51 42 22.5 31 13 0 9 Check Balance Manage Account Transfer Funds Pay a Bill Research Products Receive Account Alert Customer Support Apply for a Loan Use Digital Channels Interest in Digital Channel *Cisco IBSG, “Winning Strategies for Omnichannel Banking” Report, June 1012
  • 7. Trust in Banks Has Eroded Since the Financial Meltdown 70 52.5 35 17.5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 USA UK * Edelman, Jan 2012, annual Study
  • 8. Mobile Banking Now Vital to Customer Acquisition 19 18.2 18.3 An Increase of 63% over the last 10 Quarters 16.9 17.6 14.25 14.2 13.5 12.8 12 11.6 11.2 11 9.5 4.75 0 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Percent of Consumers Selecting Mobile banking as a “must have” feature * FindABetterBank.com, Jan 2013, Survey
  • 9. Consumer Expect More from Mobile Banking Than They’re Getting Notes about account updates and irregular activity 54 Making a Payment on a Loan or a Bill 51 Automatic Notifications of Low Balances 46 Transferring Money to Other Outside Accounts 44 Depositing a Check with My Mobile Device 43 Automated Bill Reminder 41 Other 17 0 15 30 45 60 * Varolli Corporation, Dec 2012
  • 10. Consumer Expect More from Mobile Banking Than They’re Getting Pay Bills 39% Use Phone as ID 39% Organise / Track Rewards 38% Receive Offers Based on Location 38% View Multiple Account Information 38% Calendar to Track Spending 37% Make Online Purchases 37% Receive Offers Based on Buying Patterns 36% Make In-Store Purchases 33% Access / Control Child’s Account 27% 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 * Raddon Finanicial Group, National Online Consumer Researcg, Autum 2012
  • 11. The Demographics of Mobile Bankers 18 - 29 43.5% 16.8% 22.4% 30 - 44 35.7% 24.7% 27% 45 - 59 14.7% 30.2% 26.9% 60 + 6.1% 28.4% 23.7% 0 0.9 Yes No Total * US Federal Reserve, Consumer and Mobile Financial Services Report, Jul 2012
  • 12. In-Branch 5yr Change In- 5yr Change In- Customer Activity Direct Preference Preference Branch Direct Open an Account 75% 16% -11% +8% Buy Products 65% 22% -13% +9% Resolve an Issue 36% 49% -17% +11% Transfer Funds 19% 60% -26% +29% Check Balance 6% 68% -16% +28% Research Products 16% 70% -28% +28% * Novantas Study of Customer Activity, Jan 2011
  • 13. Product Purchasing by Channels 2010 v 2015 Current Accounts 84% 9% 53% 43% Savings Account 77% 16% 38% 59% Investments 78% 11% 58% 28% Mortgages 80% 4% 72% 10% Consumer Finance Production 73% 12% 32% 47% 0 0.375 0.75 1.125 1.5 0 0.375 0.75 1.125 1.5 Branches Agents / Brokers Call Centres Direct Channels * EFMA Online Survey Across 150+ Euro Banks
  • 14. Preference for Retail Banking Products Online, by Market 7% 8% 35% 10% Credit Card Time Deposit New Account 11% Share Investment General Insurance ForEx 29% Bonds, Trusts and Mutual Funds Personal Loan Fixed Income * HSBC and Standard Chartered Survey 2007-09
  • 15. Top 5 Banks and Credit Unions Have Highest Mobile Penetration 70% Percent of all Online Respondents 52.5% 40% 35% 30% 63% 61% 56% 53% 20% 41% 35% 17.5% 24% 25% 10% 20% 18% 0% 0% Have Smart Phone or Tablet Bank via Smart Phone or Tablet Total Top 5 Bank Regional Bank Community Bank Credit Union
  • 16. Who is Anders? Anders Sorman-Nilsson (LLB MBA) is the founder of Thinque - a strategy think tank that helps executives and leaders convert disruptive questions into proactive, future strategies. As an Australian-Swedish futurist and innovation strategist he has helped executives and leaders on 4 continents map, prepare for, and strategise for both foreseeable and unpredictable futures. Since founding Thinque in 2005, he has worked with and spoken to clients like Xerox, Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Cisco, Eli Lilly, SAP, IBM, ABN Amro Bank, Commonwealth Bank, McCann Erickson and BAE Systems, across diverse cultural and geographic contexts.  Anders is an active member of TEDGlobal (Oxford 2009 / Edinburgh 2011), has keynoted at TEDx, guest lectured at University of Technology Sydney Business School, and Anders is on the prestigious 2013 Million Dollar Roundtable roster. He is a member of the University of Sydney Global Executive MBA cohort, and has completed executive education at Stanford University and the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore.
  • 18. Testimonials “There are those special moments when the right ideas and the right people collide to make magic. This is one of those times. I want to say a HUGE THANK YOU for all your work to make the Senior Director Conference both an engaging experience, and a catalyst for change.” CMO Asia, Fortune 500, Pharmaceutical Industry “Anders provided an engaging and energetic presentation of real and relevant information to the business that could be used in all areas across the business both now and moving into the future.“ Head of Regional Portfolio Management Asia, Fortune 500, FMCG  “Anders' presentation style and fresh content were an excellent and inspirational start to our Summit. It resulted in only positive feedback from the audience. Anders is very professional and a brilliant thinker and communicator!” Management Consultant, Fortune 1000, Banking Industry