Presentation by Matthew Bell, Chief Executive of the UK Committee on Climate Change, to the Climate Change Commission for Wales, Dec 2014

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Update from the Committee on Climate Change
December 2014
Matthew Bell, Chief Executive (matthew.bell@theccc.gsi.gov.uk)

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The Climate Change Act was passed with cross-party consensus and provides a scientific framework for discussing difficult issues
The Climate Change Act 2008 A statutory 2050 target for emissions reduction Legally-binding 5-year ‘carbon budgets’ Requirement to develop policies and proposals to meet budgets Establishes the CCC as independent advisor
The Committee on Climate Change How fast? Level of 2050 target and carbon budgets How? Sectoral contributions, technologies and policy options Progress? Monitoring: are we on track to meet budgets? Annual progress report to Parliament Prevention? Adaptation Sub-Committee
Process: Committee of eminent economists and scientists weighs the evidence

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Achieving carbon budgets will require decarbonisation across all sectors and nations

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The UK met the level of the 1st Carbon Budget (2008-2012), with a surplus of 36MtCO2e (around 1%)

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Welsh emissions also fell over the first carbon budget
period
• Welsh emissions fell 6% over the first carbon budget period, compared
to 12% at UK level
• While industry emissions fell by 25%, power sector emissions increased
by 29%

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Even if all current policies deliver, new thinking is needed to meet the cost-effective path to the 2050 target.
#CCC2014

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Supply-side technologies are largely known but their future costs and levels of deployment are uncertain Committee has always focused on a portfolio of technologies – acknowledging uncertainty in how each will develop Three key uncertainties:
–Evolution of carbon price
–Future cost of low-carbon technologies
–Role for smaller scale renewables, and some large-scale ones (CCS, nuclear)
Source: “2014 Progress report to Parliament”, CCC, Fig. 2.2
Power sector emissions

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Demand-side is more unknown – and may be the key to whether we meet the longer term targets or not Demand consists of one-off and ongoing decisions – both very important Demand is very complex – individuals, intermediaries, institutions Actions focused on individuals unlikely to succeed – need to focus on people as part of communities, networks, groups so Local Authorities and other local organisations play a crucial role. We would like to understand more.
Source: “2014 Progress report to Parliament”, CCC, Fig. 3.2
Emissions from all buildings (direct and indirect)

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2015 is an important year… The Committee will deliver two main pieces of advice to the Government and Parliament:
–Progress Report in June (mitigation and adaptation)
–Recommendations for the 5th Carbon Budget (2027-32) in December In preparation for those reports we are setting out some supporting analysis in line with our statutory duties:
–Impact on prices and bills of climate policies – 10 Dec 2014
–Recommendations about decarbonisation of the power sector – May 2015 We also have a duty to take global developments into account:
–Latest IPCC report
–Current Lima discussions
–Paris conference

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… we would like to include as much evidence from Wales as we can develop with you. We would like the nations to be able to learn from each other:
–What notable successes have you had in recent years (mitigation or adaptation)?
–Are there lessons from your joint partnership working for others? Welsh emissions reductions more dependent on one-off events (e.g. power station shutting down, level of industrial activity in a few key plants)
–How do you take that into account in developing emissions reduction strategies?
–Do you see that changing (modifying) between now and 5th Carbon budget (2027-32)? You have a 2020 target for 40% emissions reduction by 2020:
–In the past, we have assessed that as a very challenging target – is that a fair assessment? We are particularly keen to understand more about agricultural emissions going into the 5th Carbon budget:
–Have you done any specific thinking or aware of any initiatives in agriculture?
–Are there actions in relation to adaptation in agriculture that we should be aware of?