3º B Informatica CBTA 129

1. Manuel Fernando Aranda Romero
Future predictions

2. By 2019 Bionic eyes with high resolution
are commercially available
 Following years of trials, high resolution bionic eyes are
becoming available for persons with degenerative vision
loss. The first prototypes of this technology were somewhat
crude and pixelated, with less than 100 dots of resolution.
However, these new versions provide over 1000 dots,
allowing the patient to recognize faces and read large
print.*
 Bionic eyes continue to gain in sophistication over
subsequent decades, making rapid progress in resolution
and visual quality. Fully artificial eyes are eventually
developed that can actually provide better vision than
normal eyes. This leads even healthy people to "upgrade"
their sight.

3. By 2020-2035 the world will go
through a World energy crisis
 Throughout this period, the world is thrown into turmoil as
demand for oil begins to greatly exceed the supply - crippling many
economies and triggering widespread social unrest.*
 There are major conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, where
millions die from starvation, war and civil disruption. Many
countries in the West experience a decline in living standards - with
oil rationing and conservation measures introduced by
governments and substantial reductions in travel, tourism and
aviation.
 The crisis plays out for nearly two decades, gradually being resolved
by a switch to renewable energy and alternative fuel technologies.
The transition is by no means a smooth one, however. It requires
nothing less than an all-out Manhattan Project on a global scale. By
2035, the geopolitical map of the Middle East is unrecognisable,
while China has reaped enormous political and economic gains
from the US.

4. By 2020 the internet use will reach
5 billion world-wide
 The number of Internet users has now reached almost 5 billion –
equivalent to the entire world's population in 1987. This
compares with 1.7 billion users in 2010 and only 360 million in
2000.*
 Vast numbers of people in developing countries now have access
to the web, thanks to a combination of plummeting costs and
exponential technology improvements. This includes laptops,
smartphones and tablet devices that can be bought for only a few
tens of dollars, together with explosive growth in mobile
networks. Even some of the most remote populations on Earth
can take advantage of the web, thanks to the infrastructure now
in place.

5. By 2020 5G will make “Text-by-thinking”
possible.
 In addition to 5G, phones are becoming available with the option
of texting by thought power alone.* This is achieved by a sensor-
mounted headset worn by the user. The device contains brain-
machine interface technology which analyses brain waves,
converts them into digital signals and displays the resulting
letters on-screen.*
 Some of the higher end models feature glasses or visors, with
displays built into the lenses. This allows completely hands-free
texting, effectively creating a form of virtual telepathy. The
process is rather slow at this stage - requiring a high degree of
mental concentration. It is more of a novelty for now. However,
advances in coming years will enable smooth and fast
interactions, revolutionising the world of communication.


6. By 2022 Deafness will be fully curable
 Recent advances in stem cell research have provided a method of
regenerating sensory cells within the inner ear. Humans are born
with 30,000 cochlear and vestibular hair cells per ear. Unlike
many animal species, they are unable to regenerate these when
they are damaged. However, experiments with mice showed that
it was possible to induce stem cells - as well as reprogrammed
fibroblasts - into creating enough replacement hair cells to fully
restore hearing. This process was then replicated in people.*
 Using the patient's own skin as a source of stem cells means that
the replacements are a perfect genetic match for their body,
avoiding issues of immune rejection. This form of therapy also
enables a variety of other ailments to be treated, such as balance
disorders and tinnitus.

7. By 2023 a permanent cure to
migraine will be available.
 Migraine is a leading cause of disability, affecting one in
five people worldwide. This debilitating condition is
characterized by severe headaches, nausea, vomiting,
photophobia (increased sensitivity to light), and
phonophobia (increased sensitivity to sound).
Approximately half of those affected have such severe
attacks that they cannot function normally in their day-to-
day life. In 2010, scientists discovered a genetic defect
linked to this condition, which provided a target for new
treatments. After years of clinical trials, a drug is now
available that corrects the faulty gene permanently.

8. By 2023 Gorillas will go extinct in
Central Africa
 Rampant and uncontrolled poaching, together with
large-scale deforestation, agriculture, mining,
pollution, disease and militia operations have led to
the terminal decline of gorilla populations.* Only
those in captivity now remain.

9. By 2025-2030 Wild Rhinos will go
extinct
 Rhinos are one of the largest remaining megafauna - a class of giant
animals that were common in the last ice age.*Of the five main species
of rhino, the white rhinoceros is the heaviest, with adults weighing
3,500 kg (7,700 lb) and reaching a head-to-body length of 4.6 m (15 ft).
 Because of their size, rhinos have few natural predators other than
humans. Alongside the mammoth, woolly rhinos became numerous
during the Last Glacial Maximum (20-25,000 years ago), but were
eventually hunted to extinction by early man. In modern times, the
remaining species have declined even more rapidly. The black rhino,
for example, fell in numbers from 70,000 in the late 1960s to only 3,600
in 2004.* A subspecies - the West African black rhino - was declared
extinct in 2011, while the Javan rhino died out in Vietnam the same year.

10.  The early 21st century witnessed an alarming upward trend
in poaching. By 2012, more rhinos were being killed in
South Africa during a single week than were killed in a
whole year a decade previously. Fetching a street value of
£40,000 a kilo, rhino horn was becoming even more
valuable than gold, due to the misguided perception that it
cured cancer. It was also popular in some cultures as a form
of jewellery. Organised crime had become involved, with
gangs now using hi-tech equipment for industrial-scale
killing.
 Despite conservation efforts, the situation continued to
worsen. By the late 2020s, the last remaining rhinos are
disappearing from the wild.* Only a handful remain in
captivity. It is doubtful that any viable breeding population
can be restored anytime soon, if ever.


11. By 2024 Petabyte Storage system
will be available.
 Data storage devices are continuing to grow
exponentially, with capacities doubling every year.
Nanotechnology is enabling truly vast quantities of
information to be stored. A petabyte is 1000 terabytes,
or one million gigabytes. Secure digital and microSD
cards have disappeared by now, replaced by an even
smaller form-factor.

12. By 2029 Human-Like AI will be a reality
 A major milestone is reached in the field of AI this year, as a
computer passes the Turing Test for the first time.**This test is
conducted by a human judge who is made to engage in a natural
language conversation with one human and one machine, each
of which tries to appear human. The participants are placed in
isolated locations.
 Information technology has seen exponential growth for many
decades. This has created vast improvements in memory,
processing power, software algorithms, voice recognition and
overall machine intelligence. It has now reached the stage where
an independent judge is literally unable to tell which is the real
human and which is not.*Answers to certain "obscure" questions
posed by the judge may appear childlike or stupid from the AI -
but they are humanlike nonetheless.*
