atelier t*h

1. 01: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E
0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S
04: WOMEN ON THE RISE
0 5 : C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y
0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y
0 7 : D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E
0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E !
09: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE
10: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
M E G AT R E N D S 1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY
13: BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS
14: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
1 5 : N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S
16: ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL
1 7 : C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S
1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N
19: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER
2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y

2. M eg a t ren d s a re l o n g -t erm p ro cesses o f t ra n sf o rm a t i o n w i t h a b road scop e and a
d ra m a t i c i m p a ct . T h ey a re co n si d ered t o b e p o w erf u l f a ct o rs w h ich shap e f ut ure
markets. There are three characteristics in which megatrends differ from other trends:
T I M E H O RI Z O N
M eg a t ren d s ca n b e o b serv ed o v er d eca d es. Q u a n t i t a t i v e, em p irically unam bi-
g u o u s i n d i ca t o rs a re a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e p resen t . T h ey ca n b e p ro j e ct ed – w it h high
p ro b a b i l i t i es – a t l ea st 1 5 y ea rs i n t o t h e f u t u re.
RE A C H
M eg a t ren d s i m p a ct co m p reh en si v el y o n a l l reg i o n s, a n d resu l t in m ult idim ensi-
o n a l t ra n sf o rm a t i o n s o f a l l so ci et a l su b sy st em s, w h et h er i n p o l it ics, societ y, or
THE TREND TOWARDS eco n o m y. T h ei r p reci se f ea t u res v a ry a cco rd i n g t o t h e reg i o n i n q uest ion.
M E G AT R E N D S INTENSITY OF IMPACT
M eg a t ren d s i m p a ct p o w erf u l l y a n d ext en si v el y o n a l l a ct o rs, w het her it is go-
v ern m en t s, i n d i v i d u a l s a n d t h ei r co n su m p t i o n p a t t ern s, o r c orp orat ions and
t h ei r st ra t eg i es.
T h e t erm “ M eg a t ren d s” w a s co i n ed b y J o h n N a i sb i t t , w h o , 2 5 y e ars ago, p ublis-
h ed a b o o k o f t h e sa m e t i t l e. “ M eg a t ren d s” p resen t ed 1 0 f a r-re aching develop -
m en t s w h i ch p a i n t ed a p i ct u re o f o u r f u t u re a t t h e t u rn o f t h e m illennium . The
b o o k b eca m e a b est sel l er a n d m a d e N a i sb i t t a t ra i l b l a z er f o r social and eco-
n o m i c t ren d resea rch . W i t h h i n d si g h t , o n e h a s t o a ck n o w l ed g e graciously t hat
h i s a n a l y ses d i d n o t l a ck t h e n ecessa ry v i si o n . H e co i n ed , e. g ., t he exp ression
“ G l o b a l i sa t i o n ” , reco g n i sed ev ery i n d i v i d u a l ’ s i n crea si n g resp onsibilit y f or his
o w n l i f e, en v i si o n ed t h e i n f o rm a t i o n a n d m u l t i -o p t i o n so ci et y, and realised how
d ecen t ra l , n et w o rk i n g st ru ct u res w o u l d d o m i n a t e t h e n ew m i l l e nnium .

3. To d a y, m eg a t ren d s h a v e b eco m e a rel ev a n t st ra t eg i c i ssu e i n m any corp orat e
h ea d qu a rt ers. S i em en s, t o n a m e a si g n i f i ca n t exa m p l e, h a s st ressed t he im p or-
t a n ce o f m eg a t ren d s f o r i t s b u si n ess o n v a ri o u s o cca si o n s. D riv en by it s CEO,
K l a u s K l ei n f el d , S i em en s h a s st a rt ed t o re-a l i g n i t s b u si n ess f i e lds f ocussing on
t h e m eg a t ren d s d em o g ra p h i c ch a n g e a n d u rb a n i sa t i o n . O n l y re cent ly, Z_p unkt
co o p era t ed w i t h S i em en s’ Co rp o ra t e S t ra t eg y d ep a rt m en t i n creat ing a corp orat e
m a n a g em en t rep o rt o n t h e m eg a t ren d s cru ci a l f o r t h e co m p a n y.
S o m e m eg a t ren d s, su ch a s d em o g ra p h i c ch a n g e, h ea l t h , o r m o bilit y, hav e f ound
a p l a ce o n m a n y a g en d a s. E xp eri en ce a l so sh o w s, h o w ev er, t h a t businesses dif -
f er i n t h ei r ev a l u a t i o n o f sp eci f i c m eg a t ren d s – t h ei r rel a t i v e st rat egic signif i-
ca n ce b ei n g d et erm i n ed b y a co m p a n y ’ s f o cu s o n sp eci f i c m arket s, p roduct s,
THE TREND TOWARDS a n d cu st o m ers. W i t h i t s n ew g l o b a l m a xi m “ T h e Co n su m er D ecides” , Nike is
reco g n i si n g a m eg a t ren d w h i ch w e d escri b e a s a n ew p h a se o f i n dividualiz at ion.
M E G AT R E N D S G en era l E l ect ri c, o n t h e o t h er h a n d , f o cu ses o n si m i l a r i ssu es as it s com p et it or
S i em en s, sh o w ca sed b y i t s n ew “ E co m a g i n a t i o n ” a d v ert i si n g cam p aign.
H o w ca n co m p a n i es crea t e v a l u e f ro m m eg a t ren d s? Va l u a b l e i n sight s w ill only
b e g a i n ed i f i n f o rm a t i o n o n a m eg a t ren d i s t ra n sl a t ed i n t o a com p any’s very
o w n co n t ext , a n d i n t o f u t u re i n n o v a t i o n f i el d s, m a rk et s, a n d p roduct s. Not t he
t ren d a s su ch i s o f i n t erest , b u t i t s st ra t eg i c i m p l i ca t i o n s. I f y o u w ant t o p rep are
y o u rsel f i n t i m e f o r t h e f u t u re m a rk et s em erg i n g f ro m m eg a t rends, Z_p unkt can
o f f er a w i d e ra n g e o f t ri ed -a n d -t est ed , b u si n ess-sp eci f i c a p p roaches: Whet her
i t ’ s l ect u res o r o n e-d a y i n h o u se w o rk sh o p s, i d en t i f i ca t i o n o f st rat egic innov at i-
o n f i el d s o r n ew b u si n ess f i el d s.

4. M E G AT R E N D S
01: DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE
. In the West, ageing and shrinking populations
. In the developing countries, a baby boom
. Increasing migration streams
. Demographic shifts

5. M E G AT R E N D S
0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N
REACHES
A N E W S TA G E
. Individualism, a global phenomenon
. Changing relationship patterns: Few strong,
many loose relationships
. From mass markets to micro markets
. Self-sufficiency and DIY-economics

6. M E G AT R E N D S
0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S
. Increasing health awareness and higher
personal responsibility
. Health tech – health style
. New foodstuffs (functional food, genetically
modified food, novel food)
. New converging markets (food, pharma-
ceuticals, drugs, cosmetics)

7. M E G AT R E N D S
04: WOMEN
ON THE RISE
. Women are integrated into the working world
. “Female” soft skills become more important
. Participation as market actors: Defining
influence on product and service standards
. Work-life balance

8. M E G AT R E N D S
0 5 : C U LT U R A L
DIVERSITY
. Plural ways of life between tradition
and today
. Value systems compete globally
. Emergence of hybrid culture

9. M E G AT R E N D S
0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S
OF MOBILITY
. Globally, mobility increases
. Barriers to mobility increase
. Transport infrastructures are
upgraded/extended
. New vehicle concepts – new drive technologies

10. M E G AT R E N D S
0 7 : D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E
. Web 2.0: New media find their way into our
everyday lives
. Digital lifestyle: Virtual reality becomes real
. Virtual business worlds

11. M E G AT R E N D S
0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R ,
LEARNING FROM
N AT U R E
. Biology becomes the leading science
. Renaissance of bionics
. Swarm intelligence: New forms of social
organisation

12. M E G AT R E N D S
09: UBIQUITOUS
INTELLIGENCE
. IT-revolution continues
. Ambient Intelligence: New interfaces,
new surfaces
. Neuro sciences, artificial intelligence, and
robotics
. Transparent society: Surveillance and control

13. M E G AT R E N D S
10: TECHNOLOGY
CONVERGENCE
. Information and nanotechnology to be key
drivers of convergence
. Stimuli in many areas of application (medical
science, energy, materials)
. NBIC-convergence

14. M E G AT R E N D S
1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
. Shift to Asia and a new role for the West
. Global strategies, customised to places and
regions
. Emergence of a global middle class
. Globalised Flow of Capital

15. M E G AT R E N D S
12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED
ECONOMY
. Education and learning as a basis
. Innovation as a key driver and
competition factor
. New global knowledge elite – the creative class

16. M E G AT R E N D S
13: BUSINESS
ECOSYSTEMS
. Open systems and networks: Limits of
industries, markets, and businesses dissolve
. New value-adding chains (customer integra-
tion, coopetition)
. Business Mashups: Interfaces give rise to
new markets

17. M E G AT R E N D S
14: CHANGES IN THE
WORK WORLD
. Advances in automation (from the sector of
production to the sectors of service and
knowledge)
. Highly flexible working practices (anytime,
anywhere)
. Flexible, interactive work structures

18. M E G AT R E N D S
15: NEW CONSUMPTION
P AT T E R N S
. The Third World participates in economic
wealth (Bottom of the Pyramid)
. Catch-up luxury in China, India, and Russia
. Sustainable consumption in the West
(LOHAS, Eco Chic, Moral Commerce)

19. M E G AT R E N D S
1 6 : ENERGY AND
RESOURCE REVERSAL
. Strategic resource scarcities (fossil
fuels, freshwater, minerals, metals)
. Use of alternative sources of energy and
renewable resources
. Revolution in energy efficiency
. Decentralised energy supply

20. M E G AT R E N D S
1 7 : CLIMATE CHANGE
AND ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
. CO 2 -discharges and global rise of temperatures
. Increase of environmental problems in
emerging and developing countries
. Clean technologies
. Corporate responsibility increases

21. M E G AT R E N D S
1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N
. Megacities grow strongly
. Development of adapted infrastructure
solutions
. New forms of residence, living, and
participation

22. M E G AT R E N D S
19: NEW POLITICAL
WORLD ORDER
. China and India join the ranks
of world powers
. Crisis of Western democracies
. Russia’s renaissance
. Africa awakes

23. M E G AT R E N D S
2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S
T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L
SECURITY
. Global risk society
. Festering cultural conflicts and failed states
. Global terrorism
. Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction

24. I f y o u a re i n t erest ed i n m eg a t ren d s, p l ea se co n t a ct
C O N TA C T K l a u s B u rm ei st er, o u r M a n a g i n g D i rect o r ( b u rm ei st er@ z -p u n k t . de) , or
H o l g er G l o ck n er, o u r D i rect o r Fo resi g h t Co n su l t i n g ( g l o ck n er@z - p unkt .de) .
ABOUT Z_PUNKT Z _ p u n k t i s a co n su l t i n g f i rm f o r st ra t eg y a n d i n n o v a t i o n . We are exp ert s in
Co rp o ra t e Fo resi g h t , i . e. , i n t ra n sl a t i n g t ren d a n d f u t u re resea r ch int o t he day-
t o -d a y w o rk o f st ra t eg i c m a n a g em en t . S i n ce 1 9 9 7, w e h a v e been sup p ort ing
b u si n esses a n d p u b l i c i n st i t u t i o n s i n Fo resi g h t Resea rch a n d Consult ing.
Z _ p u n k t G m b H T h e Fo resi g h t Co m p a n y
A n n a -S ch n ei d er-S t ei g 2 • Rh ei n a u h a f en
5 0 6 78 K ö l n
0 0 49 - ( 0 ) 2 2 1 - 3 5 5 5 3 4 - 0
h t t p : / / w w w. z -p u n k t . d e
g l o ck n er@ z -p u n k t . d e
w a t k i n s@ z -p u n k t . d e

25. 01: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E
0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S
04: WOMEN ON THE RISE
0 5 : C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y
0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y
0 7 : D I Berlin L I F
Copyright Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company Köln KarlsruheG I TA L 2008E S T Y L E
0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E !
09: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE
10: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
M E G AT R E N D S 1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0
12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY
13: BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS
14: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
1 5 : N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S
16: ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL
1 7 : C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S
1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N
19: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER
Graphics and Design: www.infomationdesign.de 2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y