Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education for Christian College Presidents CCCU

Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
617-282-9798 x101
Disruptive Innovation in
Christian Higher Education

Part 1: About City Vision
Christian Education for the
Bottom Half and the Majority World

Source: (US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014)
47% of employment in America is at high risk of being automated
away over the next decade or two (Frey & Osborne, 2013)

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2025 2050 2075 2093
Straight Line Projection Growth Degree Attainment (USA)
Access is Dominant Narrative for 21st Century

The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. (2015, January). Indicators of Higher Education
Equity in the United States 45 Year Trend Report. http://www.pellinstitute.org/
City Vision’s Focus: the Bottom Half
37 pt. growth
3 pt. growth
6 pt. growth
19 pt. growth
Traditional
College
Focus
City Vision’s
Focus
(Disruptive
Innovation
Opportunity)

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2025 2050 2075 2100
Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile
Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile
City Vision’s
Focus
(Disruptive
Innovation
Opportunity)

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2025 2050 2075 2100
Difference in Projected Educational Attainment
Straight Line Projection
No Change in Growth Rate of Bottom 3 Quartiles

About City Vision University
 History: Started Rescue College in 1998 as a Program of AGRM,
DEAC Accreditation in 2005, Transferred to TechMission (nonprofit) in
2008
 Degrees
◦ Bachelor’s in Nonprofit Management, Addictions Studies, Missions,
Business (soon)
◦ Master’s in Technology and Ministry
 Statistics
◦ More than 80% of students eligible for Pell
◦ About a 60% graduation rate
◦ Cumulative 91% job placement rate
◦ Tripled enrollment since 2008 (50 to 150 students)
 Goal is to be Radically Affordable
◦ Undiscounted tuition $6,000/year undergrad and $9,000 grad school
◦ $3,000/year in developing countries

Global Opportunity
100 Million
Students
in 2000
263 Million
Students
in 2025
(84% of growth in
the developing world)
Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.
Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers,
(2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf
137 Million New Students Per Year in Developing Countries by 2025

City Vision’s International Strategy
 2015
◦ $3,000/year business degree to developing countries
 2016
◦ Launch new $3,000/year associate’s degree
 2017
◦ Target: 1,000+ students in developing countries
 2020 and beyond
◦ Drop tuition to $2,000
◦ Target: 10k+ students

City Vision Cost Strategy
 Automate everything but faculty interaction
◦ SIS: Homegrown in Salesforce
◦ LMS: Moodle
◦ Enrollment: use off the shelf marketing automation tools
 Course Content
◦ Self-Developed 50%: (Junior, Senior)
◦ Outsource 50%: (Freshmen, Sophomore, Saylor, Straighterline, Paid
Courseware vendors, MOOCs, open content)
 Personnel
◦ Use adjunct faculty/practitioners in low cost of living areas
◦ Minimal staff and staff salaries
 Marginal cost per student
◦ Currently less than $3,000/year
◦ Need to scale to cover fixed recurring cost

Part 2. Strategic Analysis
Change
Agent
Change
Agency
Your
Institution

Christianity
(Following Jesus)
1. Education for the bottom half/majority world
2. Unbundling
3. Education on Demand
4. Student Centered vs. Faculty Centered
5. Non-Western Growth
1. Economics of Online Education
2. Christian Mega-Universities
3. Cultural & Demographic Shifts
4. Increasing Costs
Sustainability Challenges to
in the USA
(paradigms)

1. Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+
online students) is likely between $500-3,000/year
2. Online education opens up competition independent
of geography
3. Online education is a platform business where you
pay “rent” to be visible (20-30% of revenue)
4. Dominant characteristic of online education is
consolidation
13% of students are online only
9% are in for-profit institutions
Sources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
Ambient Insight

• Higher education overall, about 222 schools make up one-third of enrollment.
• Top 20 largest online schools account for one-third of online market.
Source: Online Higher Education Market Update - Eduventures. (n.d.). Retrieved March 16, 2015, from
http://www.eduventures.com/insights/online-higher-education-market-update/
1. Online Education = Consolidation
Go Big or Go Home

2. Christian Mega-universities & Growth
Liberty U
43%
Grand Canyon U
39%
All of CCCU
18%
Estimated Growth Since 2005
Total Growth:
175,808 students
Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.

Disruption & Five Forces Model
Competitiv
e Rivalry
Threat of
New
Entry
Buyer
Power
Threat of
Substitut
es
Supplier
Power
Decreased by:
• Faculty overcapacity
• Uberization of Adjuncts
• Unbundling components
• Commoditized Content & OER
Increased Alternatives to Campus Education:
• Online, Blended & CBE Degrees
• Non-degree programs
• Employer Analytics
• Overcapacity
Dramatically Increased by:
• National competition online
• Global competition
Increased by:
• Standardization
• Unbunding degrees

Christianity
1. Educating the bottom half/Non-western Growth
2. Unbundling
3. Cradle to grave Christian education ecosystem
4. Education on demand (Race with the machine)
2. Mega-Universities
3. US Cultural & Demographic Shifts
4. Increasing Costs
Sustainability Challenges to
in the USA
(paradigms)

Paradigm 2. Unbundling of the Computer
Industry
Source: Only the Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove

U of A U of B
Virtually Integrated University
Univ.
Unbundled University
MOOCs
Open Ed
Resources
Study
Groups
Contracted
Courses
Adjunct
Faculty
Faculty
Networks
Churches
Internship
Univ.
Univ.
Univ.
Research
Lab
Corporations Individuals
Open
Content
Publishers
Self-
Publish
Univ.
Student
Community
Faculty
Community
Course
Materials
Content
Knowledge
Discovery
Paradigm 2. The Unbundled University
Churches
U of C U of D
Student
Community
Faculty
Community
Course
Materials
Content
Knowledge
Discovery

City Vision’s Strategy: Bridging MOOCs & Open Ed with
Community Partners
City Vision
Credentialed
Independent
Educational
Providers
(Straighterline, Saylor)
Paid
Courseware
(Pearson & Mcgraw-
Hill)
MOOCs & Free
Open Education
Resources
Christian Open
Education &
Paid
Courseware
Internship
Sites
(70+ sites)
Employer
Paid Tuition
Credit
Partnership
s
(Bible
Institutes,
Missions)
Discipleship
Study
Centers
(in churches &
ministries)
Qualification
Training
Centers
(Ofqual,
EQF)
Content
Partners
Community
Partners
(B2B
segments)
See detailed industry map on next slide

Christian(Jesus)
Community Colleges
MOOCs & Open Ed
Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn
Open2study, Udemy, Khan Academy,
Alison, YouTube, iTunesU, Open Learn, OLI
Christian Mega Universities
Liberty, Grand Canyon
Affordable Tech Sector
Christian
Innovation Sector
Affordable
Christian SectorKey: Black Accredited. Orange Content Provider Green Community Partners
Competency Based
Western Governors
College for America
State Colleges
Christian Universities
in Developing Countries
daystar.ac.ke
Paid Courseware
Pearson, Mcgraw-Hill, Lynda.com,
Skillshare, Pluralsight
Affordable Bible Colleges
ABHE Schools
Online Christian Universities
ACE Credit
Straighterline, Saylor, Ed4Online
EdX, JumpCourse, Pearson, Sofia
UC Irvine Extension, Dream Degree
Christian Open Ed
ChristianCourses.com, Open Biola, Covenant Seminary,
Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Openseminary.com
BiblicalTraining.org, Harvestime.org, http://thirdmill.org
Christian CEU Providers
insight.org/CEU, lifepointemedia.com, lifeway.com/ceu,
livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/, precept.org/ceu, sampsonresources.com,
www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu,
www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses,
www.bsfinternational.org/studies, hristiancounselingceu.com
Paid Christian Wholesale Course Providers
Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh,
connect.ligonier.org, onlinesbs.org/esbs/
Bible Institutes
TUMI, NYDS
Open Textbooks
saylor.org/books, openstaxcollege.org,
courses.candelalearning.com/catalog/lumen
collegeopentextbooks.org,
open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/
Missions/Ministry Training
Mission Year, YWAM U Nations, IHOP U
Developing Country Tech
Kepler.org, Avu.edu, elearningafrica.com,
Coursera Learning Hub, MIT Ulabs,
U of People, Pearson Affordable Learning
Training Centers
Qualifications Providers
Industry Map
Higher Ed in Developing Countries
Christian Employers
Employer Paid Tuition Partners
Internship Sites
70+ Ministries
Discipleship Study Centers
(in churches and ministries)

What business has the most locations in the USA?
14,146
25,900
Sources: http://hirr.hartsem.edu/research/fastfacts/fast_facts.html
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/05/04/24-7-wall-st-most-popular-stores/8614949/
314,000
What institution has the most locations in the USA?

City Vision Educational Philosophy
Online Education
Local Discipleship
Study Groups:
Life Change
Internships: Skills &
Practical Work Experience

Part 3. Strategic
Recommendations

Three Visions for Future Growth of HE
1. Government
◦ Universal Community College, Nationalized Higher Education:
Obamacare for Higher Education
◦ Government mega-universities: 1 million+ students
◦ Problem: increases secularizing influence of government education
2. Global Educational Conglomerate
◦ 50% of “degrees” globally by 2050 may come from 3-4 tech
companies offering free education with a small payment for the
credential
◦ Problem: Likely to follow same secularizing tendency as media
conglomerates
3. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education
◦ Innovators learn to build modularly on 1 & 2 to expand Christian
market share in post-secondary education
Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University

Future of Higher Education 2035
 Tier 1: The Elite
◦ Serve top 5-10% students, tuition >$100k/year (in 2015 dollars)
◦ Analogy: New York Times, Economist
 Tier 2: High Quality, Moderate Cost
◦ 50% in bankruptcy or merged, tuition $50-100k/year, high touch
◦ Analogy: Physical Retail, Cable TV, Phone Companies, Organic Farming
 Tier 3: Good Enough Quality, Low Cost
◦ 100k+ students or niche, tuition $100-$5,000/year
◦ Analogy: Huffington Post, Netflix, Skype, niche ecommerce
 Tier 4: Courseware Ecosystem Small Businesses
◦ Sell apps, courses, educational content, books, certificates, student services, videos, etc.
◦ Analogy: eBay/Amazon merchants, bloggers, self-publishers, app developers
 Tier 5: Courseware platforms
◦ 100’s of millions or billions of students, LinkedIn/Lynda.com

How to Survive the Coming Storm:
Lessons from Industry Case Studies
1. Innovate, increase operational effectiveness and scale.
◦ Retail & ecommerce, Farming
2. Offer both/and products to compete.
◦ Cable TV’s Video on Demand vs. Netflix
3. Be more like innovators while retaining your strengths.
◦ Journalism & News: New York Times
4. Invest in digital growth not physical growth.
◦ Blockbuster vs. Netflix
5. Outcompete rather than withdraw.
◦ Dominance of Christian radio vs. early Christian response to
Hollywood

Components
Packaged
in a Traditional
College
Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute, August 2,
2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdf
The Core Competencies
of Christian Education
are the Hardest to Replace
(Life Transformation &
Meta-Content)

Paradigm 3: View Christian education as a cradle to
grave ecosystem.
Nearly Free
Content
& Innovation
Christian College
(Life Transformation)
+
Better
Than
Government Subsidized
State University
In a platform world, how do we make the entire
Christian education ecosystem/platform more competitive?
Innovation + Life Transformation Has Growing
Competitive Advantage over Government Subsidy

Automation and Bloom’s Taxonomy
Becoming
Commoditized
• Freshman
• Sophomore
• High School
Core Competency
• Grad School
• Senior
• Junior
Strategy:MigrateUp
Race with the machine not against the machine
Strategy
Accelerated education
with automation
Strategy
Double Down

BloomsTaxonomyLevel
Low
Level
Blooms
High
Level
Blooms
Subjectivity of Assessment
Objective
Assessments
Subjective
Assessments
Most Subject to
Commoditization
& Automation
Most Dependent
on People

Paradigm 4. Education on Demand:
Accelerate Education with Automation
 Expand “Courses on Demand” freshmen/sophomore
options
◦ Adaptive, competency based courses
◦ Prior learning/test out credit
 Dual Enrollment for Christian High School Students
◦ Bluefield College: $135/course
◦ Commoditizing lower levels of Bloom’s taxonomy (Christian high
school) becomes marketing investment for student acquisition
 Add value through new 4th year
◦ Internships
◦ Study abroad
◦ 4-year Bachelor’s/Master’s program

Further Recommendations
1. Invest in marketing
◦ Facilities expense is scaled back to be replaced by marketing
expense (rent paid to tech ecosystems)
2. Create an independent skunkworks division
◦ “New wine in new wineskins”
◦ Conduct “lean startup” experiments to determine where to focus
◦ Fund an independent division to provide low-cost online
education. i.e. College for America, APU’s University College,
Eastern’s Esperanza, YourSchoolNameX
3. Develop plan to cut cost by 50% by 2035
◦ Scale back building plans to what is essential
◦ Limit ancillary activities
◦ Reinvest revenue from online programs in their growth and
quality, rather than using them only to sustain on-campus
programs.

Potential Scenario: 2035-2050
 Global Scenario
◦ 10 times growth in Christian education globally
◦ 90% of degrees are in non-western countries
◦ Majority of the world receives degrees/credentials that are nearly
free
 US Scenario
◦ Loss of government subsidies in public higher education means
many state schools cannot compete in a competitive market
◦ Christian schools experience dramatic increase in market share
relative to public higher education
◦ Christian higher education experiences major consolidation
◦ Christian schools lose some market share to free services
provided on tech platforms (like LinkedIn, Google, Apple, Amazon
& Microsoft)
◦ 70% of Americans receive a degree with growth primarily coming
from low-cost providers

Summary: Key Takeaways
1. Access is the dominant story for higher
education in the 21st century
2. Economics & technology are driving
consolidation
3. Best strategy is to create a skunkworks
4. Second best strategy is to “race with the
machines” not against by gaining core
competencies in technology
5. View Christian education as a cradle to grave
ecosystem

Supreme Court Decision and Strategic Implications
of Prospect of Losing Federal Aid
Bottom Half Strategy
 Job prep/RoI focus
 Increase automation
 Christian ecosystem
 More international focus
 Focus on scale
 Could benefit from CBE
 More focus on the poor
Lose Federal Aid
Strategy
 Job prep/RoI Focus
 Increase automation
 Christian ecosystem
 More international focus
 Focus on scale
 CBE likely to allow CHE
 More focus on the rich
Developing a bottom-half strategy also
prepares for a world without federal aid.

Tools to Help Change Agents
 Tools for Flipped Classroom Discussion Groups
with faculty and staff at your institution:
◦ YouTube Playlist: http://goo.gl/6Wptak (includes this
talk)
◦ Udemy MOOC on Disruptive Innovation in Christian
Higher Education: Coming soon
As educators the primary thing we can do is to
educate those who have the power to bring change.

For More Information
 Dissertation: “Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher
Education and the Poor.” goo.gl/nzkhRP
◦ Bibliography: https://www.zotero.org/andrewsears/items
 Slideshare for this talk: http://goo.gl/4dQggf
 Website: www.cityvision.edu
 LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears
 Contact: andrew@cityvision.edu 617-282-9798 x101

Suggested Reading
 Horn, M. B., Staker, H., & Christensen, C. M. (2014). Blended: Using Disruptive Innovation to
Improve Schools (1 edition). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
 Khan, S. (2013). The One World Schoolhouse: Education Reimagined (Reprint edition). New
York: Twelve.
 Christensen, C., Johnson, C. W., & Horn, M. B. (2010). Disrupting Class, Expanded Edition: How
Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
 DeMillo, R. A. (2011). Abelard to Apple: the fate of American colleges and universities. Cambridge,
Mass.: MIT Press.
 Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to
Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.
 Carey, K. (2015). The End of College: Creating the Future of Learning and the University of
Everywhere. New York: Riverhead Books.
 Christensen, C. M., & Raynor, M. E. (2003). The Innovator’s Solution: Creating and Sustaining
Successful Growth (1 edition). Boston, Mass: Harvard Business School Press.
 Craig, R. (2015). College Disrupted: The Great Unbundling of Higher Education. New York:
Palgrave Macmillan Trade.
 McCluskey, F. B., & Winter, M. L. (2012). The Idea of the Digital University: Ancient Traditions,
Disruptive Technologies and the Battle for the Soul of Higher Education. Policy Studies
Organization.
 Selingo, J. J. (2013). College (un)bound: the future of higher education and what it means for
students. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.

Discussion
 Part 1: Bottom Half
◦ Access, Majority World, Pricing Changes
 Part 2: Strategic Analysis
◦ Consolidation, Unbundling, Content is Free
 Part 3: Strategic Recommendations
◦ Future: Gov’t, Corporate, Tier 2 (CCCU), Tier 3 (City
Vision)
◦ Christian ecosystem
◦ On Demand, CBE, Adaptive, Accelerated Ed
◦ Transformation/meta-content vs. commoditized content
◦ Skunkworks, Change AgentsDr. Andrew Sears

Constraints on Innovation
 Debt/Lack of capital
 Current cost structure
 Commitment to faculty
 Physical plant/sunk cost
 Political realities
 Lack of core competency in innovation
 Missional constraints
 Outdated underlying worldview/myths

The Change AgentChange agents as Linkers
 The main role of the change agent is to facilitate the flow of innovations from a change agency to an audience of
clients
 Change agents usually possess a high degree of expertise regarding the innovations that are being diffused
The sequence of Change Agent Roles
1. To develop a need for change on the part of clients
2. To establish an information exchange relationship
3. To diagnose problems
4. To create an intent to change in the client
5. To translate intentions into action
6. To stabilize adoption and prevent discontinuance
7. To achieve a terminal relationship with clients
A Change Agent’s relative success in securing the adoption of innovations by clients is positively related to:
1. The extent of the change agent’s effort in contacting clients
2. A client orientation rather than a change agency orientation
3. The degree to which the diffusion program is compatible with clients’ needs
4. The change agent’s empathy with clients
5. His or her homophily with clients
6. Credibility in the clients’ eyes
7. The extent to which he or she works through opinion leaders
8. Increasing clients’ ability to evaluate innovations
Source: Diffusion of Innovation, Chapter 9, Everett Rogers, Slide/Graphic from: http://goo.gl/gQlFtB
Change
Agent
Change
Agency
Your
School

What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher
Education? Part 1
Increased
Productivity in Other
Sectors
Increased Cost of
High Skilled Labor =
Increase Costs of
Faculty & Senior
Administration
Increased
• standardized tests
• large lectures
• teaching assistants
• administrative staff
• adjuncts
Symptoms to CopeUnderlying Cause 1
Baumol’s Cost Disease
Economics of Superstars
Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ;
New York: Oxford University Press, USA.
Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
There was a 60 times increase in productivity from 1500-2000.
Higher Education has not seen this much productivity increase.

What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher
Education? Part 2
Decreasing Gov’t
Funding of Higher
Education
Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ;
Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
Creates Prisoners dilemma arms race on
investing in capital projects.

Understanding the For-Profit Business Model
Sources: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for
College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf
http://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/for_profit_report/PartII/GrandCanyon.pdf
Marketing
$3,389 35%
Profit $1,848
19%
Instruction
$2,177
22%
Other $2,295
24%
For Profit Expenses (Grand Canyon)
Private Nonprofit: 32%

Comparing Business Models
 For Profit
◦ Revenue: $11,130 per student
◦ Instruction: 26%
 Private Nonprofit
◦ Research: 12.5%
 Public
◦ Research: 14%
Source: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for
College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf

Potential Ways for Traditional CHE to
Partner with City Vision
 Articulation Agreements
 Serving as a “skunkworks” for multiple schools
 City Vision as a Christian Community College
feeder school (Associate’s degrees)
◦ Opens up new markets for low-income and
international schools
 Your faculty volunteer to support City Vision’s
development of ultra low cost degree program
 Informal diffusion of innovation partnerships
 Consulting

Source: Our Kids, Robert Putnum
5 pt. decline
10 pt. decline
Gap Doubles
to 10 points
5 point
gap
Is a shortage of pastoral leadership among
the poor affecting their church attendance?

“Human history becomes more
and more a race between
education and catastrophe.”
- H.G. Wells
Image from Wikipedia

3 Quotes on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education
“Thirty years from now the big university
campuses will be relics.”
- Peter Drucker, 1997
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a
technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long run.”
- Amara’s Law (Roy Amara)
“In 15 years from now half of US
universities may be in bankruptcy.”
- Clayton Christensen, 2013
Image Source: Wikimedia

5. Cost: Increasing Cost of Higher Education

Increasing Cost of High Skilled Labor
Source: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ;

Baumol’s Cost Disease in Concert Symphonies
Source: Webb, D. (2014, November 3). Baumol’s Cost Disease Is Killing Me! Retrieved from
http://www.clydefitchreport.com/2014/11/cost-disease-opera-labor-arts-inflation/

The Race Between Education and Technology
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
1915-1980 1980-2005
AnnualGrowth
Growth Supply of Degrees Jobs Lost Now Requiring Degrees
Education > Tech Job Loss

3. Growth of For Profits
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and
Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).

Essential Elements of Christian Education
1. Christian worldview
2. Christian community
3. Christian content
4. Christian care for stakeholders

Process for Modular Christian Education
Theology &
Christian Worldview
Audience, Pedagogy
& Goals
Christian Community & Meta Content
Christian
Courses
Theology
Courses
Secular
Courseware
Secular MOOCs
& Open
Education
Resources
Subjects

PCs
Mobile
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Mainframes

Traditional
Higher
Education
Low-
Volume
Online
Ed
For Profit
Higher Education
High
Price
Online
Ed
Radically Affordable & Accessible
Online Ed
Community
College

Christian
Social Services
Radically Affordable
Socially Responsible
Christian Education
City Vision Strategy
Rescue College
Urban Missions
1998-2007
City Vision College
2008-14
City Vision University
2015 -

Online education is here

Smart Phones: Disruptive Technology
Diamandis, P. H., & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York: Free
Press. p. 289
“People with a smart phone today can access tools that would have cost thousands a few decades ago.”

Changing Role of Workers & Consumers
Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meek

Changing Role of Workers & Consumers
KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meek

5. From Faculty Centric to Student Centric
Sharing Economy (Uber) Helps Students but Hurts Faculty
Regulators
InnovatorsIncumbents
Students
Faculty

Reimagining Role of Faculty
 Case Studies:
◦ Music industry, journalism, TED
 Find Research Funding or Find your “TED Talk”
◦ Start with your “Idea Worth Spreading”
 Read Platform, The Startup of You and The
Alliance
 Establish your platform across multi-format and
multi-channel revenue sources
◦ Spread ideas horizontally across different media and
markets
◦ Teaching, consulting, writing, blogging, etc.

The Opportunity Divide:
Mismatch of Jobs & Education
Jobs in
2018
People in
2012 Difference
Less than High
School 10% 12.42% -2.4%
High School
Degree 28% 30.72% -2.7%
Some College 12% 16.97% -5.0%
Associate’s
Degree 17% 9.45% 7.6%
Bachelor’s Degree 23% 19.49% 3.5%
Graduate Degree 10% 10.95% -0.9%

Growth of Jobs Requiring a Degree
Chart courtesy of Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce

Expected Lifetime Earnings by Education

21st Century Challenge: College Graduation

Changing our Educational Trajectory
Source: Lumina Foundation Vision

20th Century Challenge: High School Graduation
Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2025 2050 2075 2100
Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile
Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile
21st Century
Disruptive
Innovation
Opportunity
City Vision’s
Focus
Focus of
Traditional
Christian
Higher
Education

Figure 10. Educational Attainment by Birth Cohort

Figure 11. Percent of Population 25 Years and Over
Who Have Completed High School or College

University of Phoenix (2010)
Enrollment = 600,000

University of Phoenix (2015)
Enrollment = 215,000

Current Stage
of Online Education
LMS Stage Courseware Stage
Innovation Cycle of Online Education

Traditional Higher Education
Traditional Monastery
Higher Education Model
Local Christian
Community
Practical Work
ExperienceStudents “Close” to Instructor
Distant From
Students

Re-bundling Online Education with
Church Study Groups & Internships
Local Discipleship &
Study Groups
Practical Work
Experience
Distant From
Students
Instructor

Possible Christian Models of Disruptive Innovation
 Christian Megauniversities
◦ Liberty, Grand Canyon
 Competency Based Education
◦ Lipscomb University, DePaul University, Antioch School of Church Planting
 Radically New Education Models
◦ Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, City Vision
 Christian Open Education (next slide)
 Investment and Outsourcing Companies
◦ Significant Systems, Capital Education Group, Bisk Education
 Global Innovators
◦ Global University
 Course Vendors & Clearinghouses
◦ Knowledge Elements, Bible Mesh, Learning House

Free, Low-Cost Christian Courses
 Free or Open Christian Content Providers
◦ Open Biola, Covenant, Regent Luxvera, christianuniversity.org , Christian Leaders
Institute, BiblicalTraining.org, harvestime.org
 Aggregators of Christian Course Content:
◦ iTunes, Udemy, Alison.com, YouTube, Vimeo
 Low Cost Christian CEU Providers
◦ www.insight.org/CEU, www.lifepointemedia.com, www.lifeway.com/ceu,
livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/, www.precept.org/ceu,
www.sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu,
www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies ,
christiancounselingceu.com
 Paid Course Material Wholesale Providers
◦ Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh,
connect.ligonier.org, CUGN.org

Strategy for Serving the Bottom Half
1. Radically Affordable
◦ Radical low cost and low/no debt
2. Ease of Access
◦ Location, Time, Working Students, Mobile
3. Remedial education available if needed
◦ Adaptive for students at any level
4. Cultural fit
◦ Adult Friendly, No Assimilation

Stage in Adoption Cycle for
Post-Secondary Degrees
US
Average
Global
Average
Top
Quartile
3rd
Quartile
1st & 2nd
Quartile

4. Demographic Shifts:
The End of the Good Times
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES
2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.

Change High School Graduate by State

Demographic Shifts: Race/Ethnicity

Debt: Distribution of Total Student Debt by
Level of Household Net Worth

The Problem with Only Credentialing
The 25th percentile for male college graduates has been about $4,000 to $5,000 more
than the median male high school graduate in recent years, whereas among women, the
gap has recently been around $2,000.
Source: http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/09/college-may-not-pay-off-for-everyone.html#.VUJT69LF8ep

College Entrance, Completion & Persistence by Income Quartile
http://www.russellsage.org/research/chartbook/percentage-students-entering-and-completing-college-and-college-persistence-incom

Growth of For Profit Education

For Profits Dominate Age 22 and above

For Profits Dominate Black & Latino Students

For Profits Serve Disproportionately Female Students

Average Revenue per Student

Average Spending Per Student

Instructional Spending by Type

For Profits Get Disproportionally High Federal Aid

For Profits Highest Load Debt Per Student

Figure 15. Percent of Church Growth by Region

Figure 16. Christian Membership by Region

Architectural Diagram of
Courseware Ecosystems

Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do
adaptive initiatives erode Christian
colleges’ strong mission orientation.
Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson
University, Anderson, IN.
http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf
Environmental
(adaptive)
vs. Internally-Driven
(interpretive)
Strategy

Tier 3 Strategy
 Focus on scale
◦ Goal is to be able to price close to marginal cost per student
◦ Examples: College for America, Megauniversities
 Use lean startup methodology to innovate
◦ Lean marketing, lean course development, growth hacking
◦ Bi-cultural across tech and education with tech dominant
 Cut cost
◦ fast follower
◦ build on courseware platforms
◦ partner with low-income communities & developing countries
◦ highly automate back-office functions
 Disrupt yourself strategically
◦ At lowest levels of education and in untapped markets

Idea 1. MOOC on Disruption in CHE
 Opportunity
◦ Publish a multimedia toolkit as a free MOOC Udacity
that change agents in CHE could use to generate
discussion on their campuses
 Plan
◦ Extend material from Andrew Sears’ presentation and
dissertation into an open online course (more
adaptable than a book)
◦ Include content from leading CHE institutions (like
George Fox U, etc.)
 Funding Proposal
◦ $10k-20k to fund course development & marketing

Idea 2: Ultra-Low Cost Christian Associate’s Degree
 Opportunity
◦ Provide an Ultra-Low Cost ($3,000/year) Christian Associate’s
Degree targeting US market to Serve as Feeder to CCCU
Schools (functioning like an Online Christian Community College)
 Plan
◦ Expand overall CHE market by providing new pricing level
◦ Provide alternative to Community college system that provides
less than 1% transfer rate to Christian schools
◦ Help identify top tier students from lower-income backgrounds to
transfer to Christian universities
◦ Utilize free Christian materials (like Our Daily Bread University)
◦ $20k-50k for course development + $20k-$50k for marketing

Idea 3. Ultra-low Cost ($3k/yr) Christian
Business Degree for Developing Countries
 Opportunity
◦ We have partners lined up to deliver 1,000+ students
within 2 years, and we could use seed capital to ramp
up now in preparation
 Plan
◦ Need to hire dean and support staff now to ramp up
◦ See attached degree summary
◦ Could use $100k to $500k as a grant or an evergreen
loan

Method
Students
Mission and Methods
Mission

Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg

Source: Malik, K. (2013). Human development report 2013. The rise of the South: Human progress in a diverse world. The Rise of the
South: Human Progress in a Diverse World (March 15, 2013). UNDP-HDRO Human Development Reports. Retrieved from
http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/14/hdr2013_en_complete.pdf
Global Projection on Tertiary Education
(baseline and optimistic)

Global Projection on Tertiary Education
(four scenerios)
Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04).
Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf

International Partnership Pathway to a Degree
City Vision University BS
Degree in Business
Administration
Qualifi L5 Diploma in Business
Enterprise or Management
Qualifi L4 Certificate in
Business Management
Qualifi Saylor International
Foundation Year
City Vision University BS
Degree in Addiction Studies
Qualifi L5 Diploma in Health
and Social Care
Qualifi L4 Certificate Health
and Social Care
National A Level or
L3 DiplomaLevel 3
University
Degree
Level 4
Level 5
or
or
or
or

Credentialed
Independent
Educational
Providers
(Straighterline,
Saylor)
Paid
Coursewar
e
(Pearson &
Mcgraw-Hill)
MOOCs &
Free Open
Education
Resources
Christian
Courseware
(free & paid)
Online
Delivery
Providers
Corporate
Education
Nonprofits,
NGOs and
Faith-Based
Training
Centers
For-Profit
Training
Centers
Independent
Educational
Providers
Delivery
Partners
Credit
Recommendatio
nServices
(ACE, NCCRS)
Credit by
Exam
(CLEP, DSST,
AP, IB,
Excelsior,
TECEP)
Qualification
Provider
(Ofqual, EQF,
national
vocational
framework)
Professsional
Certifications
Credential
Providers
City Vision
Credit
Partnerships
(Prior Learning
Assessment,
ACE & Testing)
Discipleship
Study Centers
(in churches &
ministries)
Families &
Home Schools
Degree
Completion
Providers

Growth of Jobs Requiring a Degree
62% of Jobs
Require College

Who Has Jobs by Education?
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Less Than High School
Diploma
High School Graduate Some College or
Associate's
Bachelor's Degree
Source: StLouisFed FRED. May 2015

Expected Lifetime Earnings by Education

Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.

Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity,
and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.

Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.

The Future of Employment Frey & Osbourne 2013
1
8

Overview
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 45.
10
Number of bachelor's degree recipients in the United States from 1870 to
2024 (in 1,000)
Number of bachelor's degree recipients in the U.S. 1870-2024
Note: United States; 1870 to 2012
Source: NCES; ID 238164
9.37
12.9
15.54
27.41
37.2
48.62
122.48
186.5
432.06
392.44
792.32
929.42
1,051.34
1,160.13
1,237.88
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
Number of recipients in thousand

Overview
11
Number of master's degree recipients in the United States from 1880 to
2024 (in 1,000)
Number of master's degree recipients in the U.S. 1880-2024
0.88
1.02
1.58
2.11
4.28
14.97
26.73
58.18
74.44
213.59
305.2
330.15
403.61
463.19
473.5
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
2001
Number of recipients in thousands

Overview
12
Number of doctoral and first professional degree recipients in the United
States from 1870 to 2024
Number of doctoral and first professional degree recipients in the U.S. 1870-2024
1
54
149
382
443
615
2,299
3,290
6,420
9,829
59,486
95,631
103,508
114,266
118,736
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
Number of recipients

Overview
13
Number of associate's degree recipients in the United States from 1970 to
2024 (in 1,000)
Number of associate's degree recipients in the U.S. 1970-2024
206.02
400.91
455.1
539.69
564.93
578.87
595.13
634.02
665.3
696.66
713.07
728.11
750.16
787.33
849.45
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Number of recipients in thousand

Bachelor's degree
16
Number of bachelor's degrees earned in the United States from 1950 to
2024, by gender (in 1,000)
Bachelor's degrees earned in the United States by gender 1950-2024
Note: United States; 1950-2012
103.22
138.38
341.22
364
387
404
418
418.09
421
424
434
444
456
465
328.84
254.06
451.1
476
501
518
527
504.84
505
496
487
477
474
470
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
1950
1960
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Number of degrees in thousands
Year
Female Male

Bachelor's degree
17
Number of bachelor's degrees earned in the United States by ethnic
group in 2013
Bachelor's degrees earned in the United States by ethnic group 2013
Source: US Department of Education; NCES; ID 185302
1,221,576
191,180 186,650
130,144
11,445
34,338
64,831
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
White Black Hispanic Asian or Pacific
Islander
American
Indian/Alaskan Native
Two or more races Nonresident alien
Numberofdegrees

Bachelor's degree
18
Number of bachelor's degrees earned in the United States in 2012/13, by
field of research
Bachelor's degrees earned in the United States by field of research 2012/13
33,593
9,757
8,851
100,319
360,823
84,817
4,989
50,962
104,647
85,980
17,004
52,424
23,934
21,673
181,144
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000
Agriculture and natural resources
Architecture and related services
Area, ethnic, cultural, gender, and group studies
Biological and biomedical sciences
Business
Communication, journalism, and related programs
Communications technologies
Computer and information sciences
Education
Engineering
Engineering technologies
English language and literature/letters
Family and consumer sciences/human sciences
Foreign languages, literatures, and linguistics
Health professions and related programs
Number of degrees
Fieldofresearch

Master's degree
20
Number of master's degrees earned in the United States from 1950 to
2024, by gender (in 1,000)
Master's degrees earned in the United States by gender 1950-2024
16.96
23.54
82.79
92.48
102.19
109.09
119.47
131.23
144.96
149.94
151.13
148.58
148.31
149.66
41.22
50.9
130.8
143.08
155.01
159.57
162.61
166.32
172.52
173.09
166.86
159.11
156.88
152.98
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
1950
1960
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Year
Female Male

Master's degree
21
Number of master's degrees earned in the United States in 2013, by
ethnicity
Master's degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity 2013
Note: United States; 2013
455,892
87,988
52,990
44,912
3,697
11,839
94,433
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
Islander
American
Numberofdegrees
Ethnicity

Master's degree
22
Number of master's degrees earned in the United States by field of
research in 2012/13
Master's degrees earned in the United States by field of research 2012/13
6,339
8,095
1,897
13,335
188,625
8,757
577
22,777
164,624
40,417
4,908
9,755
3,253
3,708
90,931
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000
Area, ethnic, cultural, gender, and group studies
Business
Education
Engineering
Health professions and related programs
Number of degrees
Fieldofresearch

Doctoral and first professional degree
24
Number of doctoral degrees earned in the United States from 1950 to
2024, by gender (in 1,000)
Doctoral degrees earned in the United States by gender 1950-2024
0.62
1.03
5.69
6.86
7.85
9.53
11.46
13.88
17.12
19.52
22.06
24.52
26.11
28.45
5.8
8.8
53.79
58.14
63.35
69.96
71.13
71.03
73.89
72.21
70.28
70.45
69.53
69.57
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
1950
1960
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Year
Female Male

25
Number of first professional degrees earned in the United States by
gender from 1970 to 2009 (in 1,000)
First professional degrees earned in the United States by gender 1970-2009
45.1
45.39
45
43.62
43.44
40.87
39.01
38.19
36.85
35.82
30.95
27.03
24.61
14.42
46.9
45.92
45.05
44.04
43.85
42.17
41.89
42.51
42.86
44.24
44.85
43.96
50.46
52.72
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
Number of degrees (in thousands)
Year
Female Male

26
Number of doctoral degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity in
2011
Doctoral degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity 2011
109,270
11,740
9,215
17,893
913 1,569
19,462
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Islander
American
Numberofdegrees
Ethnicity

27
Number of first-professional degrees earned in the United States by
ethnicity in 2012
First-professional degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity
Source: NCES; ProQuest; ID 185313
68,003
13,318
7,255
6,042
2,398
1,076 618
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
White, non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific
Islander
Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic Nonresident alien Two or more races American
NumberofPerson
Ethnicity

28
Number of doctoral degrees earned in the United States by field of
research in 2013
Doctoral degrees earned in the United States by field of research 2013
1,411
247
291
7,943
2,836
612
1,826
10,572
9,356
111
1,373
351
1,304
64,195
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
Area, ethnic, cultural, and gender studies
Business
Education
Engineering
Health professions and related clinical sciences
Number of degrees

29
Number of first professional degrees earned in selected professions in
the United States in 2012
First professional degrees earned in the United States for selected professions
Source: NCES; US Department of Education; ID 185364
46,445
16,927
5,942
5,109
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
Law (LL.B. or J.D.)
Medicine (M.D.)
Theological (B.D., M.Div., M.H.L.)
Dentistry (D.D.S. or D.M.D.)
Number of degrees

31
Doctorate recipients' primary sources of financial support in the United
States in 2013
Primary sources of financial support for U.S. doctorate recipients in 2013
Source: NCSES; National Science Foundation; ID 240166
32%
26.9%
20.8%
15.4%
3%
1.8%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Research assistantships/traineeships
Fellowships/grants
Teaching assistantships
Own resources
Employer
Other
Percentage of doctorate recipients

Associate's degree
33
Number of associate's degrees earned in the United States by gender
from 1970 to 2024 (in 1,000)
Associate's degrees earned in the United States by gender 1970-2024
88.59
108
126
141
155
169.15
181
196
208
211
217
228
238
246
117.43
144
166
175
189
191.02
210
211
205
192
184
189
197
204
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Year
Female Male

Associate's degree
34
Number of Associate's degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity in
2012
Associate's degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity 2012
632,802
141,886
151,621
48,707
10,711 14,759 17,052
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
Islander
American
Numberofdegrees
Ethnicity

Characteristics of graduates
36
Employment and educational status of recent graduates in the United
States in 2012
Work/study situation of recent graduates in the U.S. 2012
Note: United States; March 21, 2012 to April 2, 2012; 8-19 years; 444 Respondents; College graduates
Source: John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development; ID 235208
51%
14%
6%
6%
6%
6%
5%
3%
3%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
Employed full-time
Attending graduate or professional school, employed part-time or full-time
Attending graduate or professional school, not employed
Working part-time, not looking for full-time work
Working part time, looking for full-time work
Unemployed and looking for work now
Unemployed but not looking for work now
Volunteer
Military
Share of recent graduates

38
Average earning increase after obtaining a graduate degree in the United
States in 2013, by major group
Average earning increase after obtaining a graduate degree in the U.S. 2013
Note: United States; 2013; 25-59 years
Source: Center on Education and the Workforce; US Census Bureau; ID 226005
63.3%
50%
44.6%
34.2%
33.3%
33.3%
33.3%
33.1%
32.9%
29.2%
28.4%
25.6%
25.5%
25.4%
25%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
Biology and Life Science
Physical Sciences
Social Science
Humanities and Liberal Arts
Psychology and Social Work
Business
Education
Law and Public Policy
Agricultural and Natural Resources
Health
All Majors
Computers, statistics, and mathematics
Communications and journalism
Industrial Arts, Consumer Services and recreation
Architecture and engineering
Earnings increase by percentage

39
Median starting salary of recent university graduates, by gender, recession,
internship experience, and degree relation United States 2012 (in U.S. dollar)
U.S. university graduates median starting salaries 2012, various categories
30,000$
30,000$
30,000$
30,000$
28,000$
27,000$
26,000$
26,000$
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Did internship
Male
Pre-recession (2006-2007)
First job very/somewhat related to degree
Female
Recession (2009-2011)
First job not very/not at all related to degree
No internship
Median starting salary in U.S. dollar in $

40
Median student debt owed upon graduation in the United States in 2012,
by institution type (in U.S. dollars)
Median student debt owed upon graduation in the U.S., by institution type 2012
18,680$
24,460$
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Public college Private college
MediandebtinU.S.dollarsin$

Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education for Christian College Presidents CCCU

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Mais procurados (20)

Semelhante a Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education for Christian College Presidents CCCU

Semelhante a Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education for Christian College Presidents CCCU (20)

Mais de City Vision University

Mais de City Vision University (20)

Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education for Christian College Presidents CCCU

Notas do Editor