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Parallel vote tabulation nigeria experience
1.
2.
3. What is Parallel Vote Tabulation
(PVT)?
The parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) often called
‘quick count’ is an election observation
methodology that is employed for independent
verification of election results.
It involves observation of the election day voting
and counting processes at polling units,
collection of all polling unit information and
independent tabulation of these information.
4. Components of PVT
An independent check on the official vote totals;
and
A systematic analysis of the qualitative aspects
of an electoral process
5. PVT Goals
Deter fraud – most basic reason why conducting
PVT.
Detect fraud – detect vote-counting fraud.
Timely forecast of election results
Promote confidence in the election process and
the results as announced by the election
management body (in Nigeria – INEC)
6. PVT Goals Cont’d
Assess the quality of the process – most
challenges of electoral processes are based on
anecdotes. PVT goes beyond anecdotes to
characterize the magnitude and severity of
problems in the electoral process.
Encourages citizens to participate in the electoral
process.
7. PVT Goals Cont’d
Extend organizational reach and skills building
– building of a network of CSO partners.
Set the stage for future activities – most
organizations that conducted PVTs have been
seen to be honest and have continued in other
governance related projects other than election
observation.
8. PVT Prerequisites
Access to the polling units/polling unit data
Credibility with citizens – two main
components of credibility to be considered is
competence and independence.
Adequate resources – significant human,
technical and financial resources.
Adequate project management structure.
Carefully developed checklist form
9. PVT underlying principles
Use of statistical principles of probability and
sampling
Rapid collation of results from the field using
suitable ICT tools.
Use of suitable technologies to capture and
analyze results collected from observers on
the field
Well trained observers assigned to pre-
sampled polling units.
10. Statistical principles
Reliability and validity
Adequate sample size – (offers faster,
cheaper and more practical approach to
studying the entire process).
The population – PVT uses the population
eligible to vote (registered voters). – INEC
registered approx. – 70 million Nigerians
Probability: The law of large numbers and the
central limit theorem.
11. Constructing the sample
Identify the unit of analysis – polling units in the
case of Nigeria
Determine the margin of error and confidence
levels;
Determine the most appropriate type of random
sample; - {general random samples or stratified
random samples}.
12. Rapid collation of reports from Observers
on the field using adequate ICT tool
Carefully study the environment and strategize
on the most effective ICT tools available.
In Nigeria – we used Mobile/SMS aggregated
through a content provider (aggregator).
Aggregators network could accept SMS from all
(8 – 9) GSM & CDMA provider – i.e. MTN, Glo,
Airtel, Etisalat, Starcomm, Visafone, Reltel,
Zoom.
13. Suitable technologies to capture and
analyze observer reported data
RapidSMS
free and open-source framework for dynamic
data collection, logistics coordination and
communication, leveraging basic short
message service (SMS) mobile phone
technology.
Read more on RapidSMS @ www.rapidsms.org
14. Adequately trained Observer network
NSC
Secretariat
State Coordinating
Committee
Local Government Area
Supervisors
Election day Observers
15. Observation Tool - Checklist
An independent check on the official vote
totals; and a systematic analysis of the
qualitative aspects of an electoral process
A checklist is a type of informational job aid
used to reduce failure by compensating for
potential limits of human memory and
attention. It helps to ensure consistency and
completeness in carrying out a task
Notas do Editor
The more the data we have, the more certain we can be about predicting outcomes accurately. There is safety in numbers.Central limit theorem holds that the greater the number of observations (sample points), the more likely it is that the distribution of the data points will tend to conform to a known pattern.
The desired margin of error depends on what degree of accuracy is required from the estimates.The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures; that is, the figures for the whole population. Margin of error occurs whenever a population is incompletely sampled.Condfidence level measure the reliability of a dataset.