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Taylor Financial Group First Quarter 2009 Review & Outlook April  2009 THIS PRESENTATION INCLUDES MATERIAL COPYRIGHTED BY LITMAN/GREGORY ANALYTICS, LLC, A RESEARCH SERVICE UTILIZED BY  YOUR COMPANY
First Quarter Review
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Losses Continued in the First Quarter of 2009
Asset Class Returns Asset Class  (current tactical overweighting     or underweighting   ) Index 1st Qtr. 2009 12  Months 5 Years  (Ann.) Domestic Larger-Cap Blend (    since Nov-08) Vanguard 500 -11.0% -38.1% -4.9% Domestic Larger-Cap Growth iShares Russell 1000  Growth -4.2% -34.3% -4.5% Domestic Larger-Cap Value iShares Russell 1000 Value -16.7% -42.3% -5.0% Domestic Smaller-Cap Blend iShares Russell 2000 -14.9% -37.3% -5.2% Domestic Smaller-Cap Growth iShares Russell 2000 Growth -9.7% -36.2% -5.4% Domestic Smaller-Cap Value iShares Russell 2000 Value -19.6% -38.7% -5.4% Foreign Stocks   Vanguard Total International -13.0% -46.6% -1.0% REITs   Vanguard REIT -32.1% -58.1% -8.8% High-Yield Bonds   Merrill Lynch High-Yield 5.3% -19.9% -0.3% Domestic Investment-Grade Bonds  Vanguard Total Bond 0.3% 3.2% 4.1% Global Investment-Grade Bonds  Citigroup World Gov’t Bond -4.8% -3.8% 4.6% Commodity Futures Dow Jones AIG Commodities -6.3% -45.0% -3.2% Short-Term Emerging Markets Local Currency Bonds JPMorgan ELMI+  -3.9% -11.8% 6.8%
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Our Portfolios Did Well in the First Quarter
Fund Performance 5.63 6.4 4.13 4.9 3.13 3.0 .12 1.5 Barclays Aggregate  PIMCO Total Return  - - - - - - .12 1.3 Barclays Aggregate  PIMCO Unconstrained Bond Fund Benchmark Index 1st Quarter ’09 12 Months 5 Years (Ann.) 10 Years (Ann.) Return Bench-mark Return Bench-mark Return Bench-mark Return Bench- Mark Artio Global High Yield Barclays High Yield 5.5 5.98 -18.26 -19.31 1.04 -.10 - - Atrio International Equity MSCI EAFE -16.24 -13.85 -46.20 -45.23 - - - - Dodge & Cox Income Barclays Aggregate .26 .12 -.6 3.13 2.72 4.13 5.21 5.63 DWS Managed Muni Barclays Muni 4.29 4.22 -.54 2.27 2.59 3.21 4.15 4.59 DWS Short Duration Barclays Aggregate 2.59 .12 -3.93 3.13 2.88 4.13 4.19 5.63 Hussman Strategic Growth S&P 500 7.03 -11.01 -2.75 -30.07 2.33 -4.76 - - Ivy Global Natural Resources S&P 500 4.78 -11.01 -56.67 -30.07 2.93 -4.76 11.34 -3 Kinder Morgan  S&P 500 4.28 -11.01 -8.05 -30.07 7.64 -4.76 18.05 -3 Leuthold Asset Allocation S&P 500 -8.25 -11.01 -35.61 -30.07 - - - - Loomis Strategic Income Barclays Aggregate -.06 .12 -21.45 3.13 1.19 4.13 6.32 5.63 Putnam NJ Tax Exempt Barclays Muni 4.32 4.22 -.04 2.27 2.53 3.21 3.68 4.59 Barclays TIPS Barlcays U.S. Government 5.20 -.99 -1.77 6.95 - - - - TCW Total Return  Barclays Aggregate 2.46 .12 1.86 3.13 4.24 4.13 5.96 5.63 Vanguard Total Stock Market S&P 500 -10.93 -11.01 -38.08 -30.07 -4.36 -4.76 - -
The Current Environment and Outlook
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],A Rising Spiral of Debt and Wealth Is Now Inverted
The Total Volume of Debt Has Grown Steadily
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],We Think the Government Will Do Everything it Can to Prevent a Debt-Deflation Spiral from Taking Hold
In-Depth Research Underlies Our Investment Decisions
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],We Have Undergone a Major Research Effort to Recalibrate Our Analysis Based on a New Economic Reality
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Our Longer-Term Outlook for Equities
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Our Four Broad Scenarios
Investors Typically Become More Risk-Averse After Major Bear Markets Rolling Five-Year P/E Ratios Lower P/E multiples following bad bear markets reflect periods of risk aversion (remember that because each point reflects the trailing five years there is a lag relative to the dates shown).
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Active Managers May Have an Advantage in this Highly Disrupted Environment
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],We Continue to Own a Large Tactical Position  in High-Yield Bonds
Quarterly Performance of High-Yield vs. Equities  Since 2007 Market Peak The credit crisis and forced selling drove high-yield bond prices to compelling levels when we first added them  in the fourth quarter.
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Tactical Considerations for Other Asset Classes
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],We Are Considering the Longer-Term Impact of Governmental Actions
In Summary …
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Shorter-Term Risk Remains
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Short-Term Losses Are Painful but Also Create Longer-Term Opportunities
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],We Are Taking Nothing for Granted
Thank You!

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1st Quarter 2009 Powerpoint

  • 1. Taylor Financial Group First Quarter 2009 Review & Outlook April 2009 THIS PRESENTATION INCLUDES MATERIAL COPYRIGHTED BY LITMAN/GREGORY ANALYTICS, LLC, A RESEARCH SERVICE UTILIZED BY YOUR COMPANY
  • 3.
  • 4. Asset Class Returns Asset Class (current tactical overweighting  or underweighting  ) Index 1st Qtr. 2009 12 Months 5 Years (Ann.) Domestic Larger-Cap Blend (  since Nov-08) Vanguard 500 -11.0% -38.1% -4.9% Domestic Larger-Cap Growth iShares Russell 1000 Growth -4.2% -34.3% -4.5% Domestic Larger-Cap Value iShares Russell 1000 Value -16.7% -42.3% -5.0% Domestic Smaller-Cap Blend iShares Russell 2000 -14.9% -37.3% -5.2% Domestic Smaller-Cap Growth iShares Russell 2000 Growth -9.7% -36.2% -5.4% Domestic Smaller-Cap Value iShares Russell 2000 Value -19.6% -38.7% -5.4% Foreign Stocks  Vanguard Total International -13.0% -46.6% -1.0% REITs  Vanguard REIT -32.1% -58.1% -8.8% High-Yield Bonds  Merrill Lynch High-Yield 5.3% -19.9% -0.3% Domestic Investment-Grade Bonds  Vanguard Total Bond 0.3% 3.2% 4.1% Global Investment-Grade Bonds  Citigroup World Gov’t Bond -4.8% -3.8% 4.6% Commodity Futures Dow Jones AIG Commodities -6.3% -45.0% -3.2% Short-Term Emerging Markets Local Currency Bonds JPMorgan ELMI+ -3.9% -11.8% 6.8%
  • 5.
  • 6. Fund Performance 5.63 6.4 4.13 4.9 3.13 3.0 .12 1.5 Barclays Aggregate PIMCO Total Return - - - - - - .12 1.3 Barclays Aggregate PIMCO Unconstrained Bond Fund Benchmark Index 1st Quarter ’09 12 Months 5 Years (Ann.) 10 Years (Ann.) Return Bench-mark Return Bench-mark Return Bench-mark Return Bench- Mark Artio Global High Yield Barclays High Yield 5.5 5.98 -18.26 -19.31 1.04 -.10 - - Atrio International Equity MSCI EAFE -16.24 -13.85 -46.20 -45.23 - - - - Dodge & Cox Income Barclays Aggregate .26 .12 -.6 3.13 2.72 4.13 5.21 5.63 DWS Managed Muni Barclays Muni 4.29 4.22 -.54 2.27 2.59 3.21 4.15 4.59 DWS Short Duration Barclays Aggregate 2.59 .12 -3.93 3.13 2.88 4.13 4.19 5.63 Hussman Strategic Growth S&P 500 7.03 -11.01 -2.75 -30.07 2.33 -4.76 - - Ivy Global Natural Resources S&P 500 4.78 -11.01 -56.67 -30.07 2.93 -4.76 11.34 -3 Kinder Morgan S&P 500 4.28 -11.01 -8.05 -30.07 7.64 -4.76 18.05 -3 Leuthold Asset Allocation S&P 500 -8.25 -11.01 -35.61 -30.07 - - - - Loomis Strategic Income Barclays Aggregate -.06 .12 -21.45 3.13 1.19 4.13 6.32 5.63 Putnam NJ Tax Exempt Barclays Muni 4.32 4.22 -.04 2.27 2.53 3.21 3.68 4.59 Barclays TIPS Barlcays U.S. Government 5.20 -.99 -1.77 6.95 - - - - TCW Total Return Barclays Aggregate 2.46 .12 1.86 3.13 4.24 4.13 5.96 5.63 Vanguard Total Stock Market S&P 500 -10.93 -11.01 -38.08 -30.07 -4.36 -4.76 - -
  • 8.
  • 9. The Total Volume of Debt Has Grown Steadily
  • 10.
  • 11. In-Depth Research Underlies Our Investment Decisions
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Investors Typically Become More Risk-Averse After Major Bear Markets Rolling Five-Year P/E Ratios Lower P/E multiples following bad bear markets reflect periods of risk aversion (remember that because each point reflects the trailing five years there is a lag relative to the dates shown).
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Quarterly Performance of High-Yield vs. Equities Since 2007 Market Peak The credit crisis and forced selling drove high-yield bond prices to compelling levels when we first added them in the fourth quarter.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.