Real Estate of Mind

Real Estate of Mind
Real Estate of MindReal Estate of MindFollowing the MoneyShowing Us The Money!Cash is
King?The Big SqueezeThe Whys of Low InventoryA Crimp in the Flow"Scratching for Answers"The
Listing DroughtSomething's In the WindIs it Break Time?
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On the trail of all those cash offers that have become
such a common feature in our real estate market over the past few years... to a degree never really
experienced or even thought possible in Santa Cruz County before. This isn't your Mother's sleepy-
little beach town real estate market anymore. But then, it hasn't fit that description for quite a while
now has it?
What's behind this unprecedented rise in the use of cash? Even when people have it, why use so
much of it to buy homes? Seems like, if they have huge chunks of cash in the first place, most ought
to qualify pretty easily for loans with more modest amounts of cash down.
Wouldn't they rather maximize the use of other people's money (OPM)? Specially when interest rates
are this low? Don't some of them want to take advantage of the best incentive and outright gift that
American Homeowners/Taxpayers ever got - the mortgage interest deduction on their primary
residences?
Hasn't the key strategy for building long term wealth always revolved around leveraging OPM to buy
appreciating assets while fully utilizing accompanying tax advantages? That's what Rich Dad says in
all those books. Poor Dad's the other guy.
All-cash offers made a lot of sense when the distress market was in full swing back in 2011-12 and
more than 40% of real estate transactions were short sales, REOs or pending defaults where people

had to or wanted to get out quick.
Median Prices were down 35-45% from the peak and cash often allowed hardcore investor-types to
hammer purchase prices down even lower. In many cases cash was also the only thing that could cut
through the mind-numbing, transaction-killing red tape that bank processes subjected both buyers
and sellers to in those distress transactions.
If you were flipping a short sale or buying a foreclosure on the courthouse steps, you paid cash. If
you could get an amazing deal but you had to close in 10 days, you paid cash - there was no way the
loan process was up to the task. If people wanted to avoid the temporary chaos created by new
appraisal regulations, they offered all-cash.
But that was then. This is now. The distress market has waned. Residual distress properties make up
only about 5% of total sales. Prices are back up. Not quite to 2005-2006 levels, but almost. Loans are
easier to get and going through the process doesn't feel like a Guantanamo water-boarding
experience anymore. The appraisal system has steadied itself. Most of those quick flip artists have
migrated elsewhere. To greener pastures where their cash can access better margins of return.
Without all those distress properties haunting the market, the inventory of available homes has
steadily shrunk for the last 3 years. And it's low inventory that has continued fueling the high
percentage of all-cash offers.
Filed under: Real Estate Of Mind Articles Tagged: all-cash offers, cash buyers, low inventor, multiple
offers, real estate market, santa cruz real estate ]]
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https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/02/19/showing-us-the-money/
https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/02/19/showing-us-the-money/#comments Thu, 19 Feb 2015
18:25:00 +0000
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Picking up where we left off last week. (Go to
tombrezsny.wordpress.com to grab the thread.) The big question hanging, call it the $64,000
question or the $640,000 question, (or just keep adding zeros) : Where are all those all-cash offers
coming from? The one's the market has been experiencing at an unprecedented clip for the last two
or three years?
Who has that kind of money? Didn't everything implode in 2008? Wasn't everyone hammered by the
Great Recession? Where's all the dough coming from?

Is it funny-money people were stashing under their mattresses or in shoe boxes? waiting to cash-in
on just the right rainy day market? Are more people selling their comic book collections? Are a
growing number of Doomsday Preppers digging up their backyard coffee cans full of gold
kruggerands, sensing that now may be the perfect move-up market for a spacious Post-Apocalyptic
bunker to hunker down in for the rest of the world's dystopian future?
Or are all these cash Buyers someone else? Some new breed of Buyer that's evolved out of the
rubble of 2008? Homing instincts genetically altered by events radiating out from our bubble blast
from the past? Driven by a different set of needs and desires? And strategies for getting what they
want?
I tried asking a few mortgage brokers where all the cash is coming from. They watch money closely
so I figured they might have a good feel for the question. But unfortunately, mortgage types don't
get the chance to interact with many all-cash buyers, since all-cash people aren't in need of any loan
services.
So I've turned to Realtors who are right there, stationed in the trenches and I've been going Agent-
to-Agent, collecting as many different all-cash client origin stories as I can. Hoping to create some
kind of over-arching composite profile that helps explain where all those mysterious cash buyers are
coming from.
I could probably just say all-cash offers are coming from rich people and leave it at that. We love to
say it's the rich people these days. But here in Coastal California, in a County that resides right next
door Silicon Valley and where the median price of a home borders on $700,000, I don't think it's
that simple. I'm not sure I even know what a rich person is anymore and it's not going to provide
much helpful insight for anyone scratching their head, trying to figure it out.
Anyone that has a cash offer experience of their own is invited to e mail it to me. I welcome all
thoughts or theories or tantalizing clues that anyone can come up with while we are trying to follow
the money trail and track the cash.
Filed under: Real Estate Of Mind Articles Tagged: all-cash offers, buying real estate, competing
buyers, multiple offers, real estate market, santa cruz real estate ]]
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1 https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/cash-is-king/
https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/02/17/cash-is-king/#comments Tue, 17 Feb 2015 18:24:06
+0000
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Recent stats say somewhere in the range of 30% of the
homes being sold these days are all-cash transactions. For most of the 26 years I've been doing this,
the notion that our Santa Cruz real estate market could be made up of this many cash buyers would
have been - unthinkable.
Sure, there was a big influx of folks flashing cash on this side of the hill, during the dot.com-inspired
real estate wave of the late 90s. That's when IPOs and Stock Options were raining down new-found
money, like manna from heaven, into the laps of a growing number of thirty-something tech-types.
And ironically, many of those techies that hastily ran out and bought houses with the unexpected
windfalls burning holes in their pockets were, in hindsight, very happy/lucky they did. Specially
when NASDAQ crashed in 2000 and left lots of co-workers holding close-to worthless options at the
same time they were expected to pay taxes on the inflated value the stocks had when they were first
issued the previous year.
At least those early-real estate adopters ended up with brick and mortar assets, cool roofs over their
heads and something tangible to show for all those crazy, code -writing marathons they had pulled.
Instead of nothing or even less than nothing in some cases.
But all-cash wasn't the king in real estate before then. And all-cash didn't register that big of an
impact on our Santa Cruz market after that. Until recently that is. Even when real estate fever
spiked and the market rose to its most en fuego pitch in the peak years of 2005-06, people rarely
offered cash.
It wasn't considered smart or fashionable at the time. Leverage was the name of the game. And to do
that you needed as much OPM (other people's money) as you could get your hands on. And that
wasn't much of a problem when the mortgage market was handing out easy qual, no qual and sub-
prime loans like Halloween Candy to anyone who showed up at the door.
In 2008-2009 the market imploded and old ways of doing things slipped into a black hole. Notable
trends were difficult to discern. Other than - it was damn hard to get a loan of any kind.
Sometime in and around 2010-2011, cash started to emerge as a bigger player in the growing
number of transactions that were happening. When a surge of multiple offers hit in the spring of
2012, all-cash offers pumped up their street cred. And by 2013 the best chance to compete in a
market that suddenly had a lot less houses to choose from, cash bulled it's way to the front of the
line and became the very best way for buyers to compete against other multiple offers - something
that was becoming the staple of a new market normal.
So much for a brief history... let's turn ours attention to the more salient question that so many
Agents and Mortgage Brokers have turned their attention to and been scratching their heads about:
Where is all the cash coming from?

More next week.
Filed under: Real Estate Of Mind Articles Tagged: all-cash offers, house flipping, multiple offers, real
estate ]]
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https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/27/the-big-squeeze/
https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/27/the-big-squeeze/#comments Tue, 27 Jan 2015
02:57:51 +0000
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Continuing our discussion of the Static Quo of the Status Quo. The No/Low
Inventory of homes on the market. A move-up market bogged down. A move-down market with
nowhere to go. An entry-level market with shrinking opportunities. What's left? A side-ways
market? Not really much incentive to sell a house just to be able to move into another one just like
it. Home transactions flow out of life transitions and contrary to the old adage, the more things
change in your life, the more you don't want your home to stay the same.
In the old days, there was a natural progression in the prevailing wisdom about how home
ownership should work. First you had to get into the market. Beg. Borrow. Scrimp. Save. Anything
to buy that first home.
Then you settled in. Built sweat equity. Waited for appreciation. And voila! Three to five years later,
you had a stepping stone to the next bigger, better place. Then, you settled back in again. Repeated
same.
Somewhere between the 3rd and 5th move-up - you were arrived at the end all/be all of perfect
homes. Until of course you realized that life really wasn't going to end there. And the biggest lesson
life teaches over a lifetime is, you never really arrive. There's always one more change ahead. But
then... I digress...
Here's the list we started last week - factors that in one way or another or in conjunction with each
other that are helping to squeeze the current listing inventory. (Remember low inventory tends to
become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sellers become Buyers after they sell, so if no one is selling then
not as many are buying either. Low inventory is a cause and an effect.)
- Prop 13 Deterrence - Limits on Capital Gain Exemptions
- Step-ups in Tax Basis - Sustained Low Interest Rates
What else can we add to the mix of contributing factors? Certainly each of the following plays a role

in holding down the growth of inventory at this unique juncture in history.
- Fundamental Changes in Mortgage Lending
- Unprecedented Numbers of Cash Offers
- Inherent Undesirability of Contingent Offers
- Corresponding Low Rental Market Inventory
- Increasing Numbers of Foreign Investors
- Differences between New Tech Old Tech Trends
- Shrinking Middle Class/Concentration of Wealth with 1%
- Higher Employment w/o Corresponding Wage Increases
- Lack of Suitable Housing Density
- Slow Growth Planning Policies/Land-Use Politics
- Huge Surge in Aging Baby-Boomer Demographic
- Changing Millennial Attitudes about Home
- New Paradigm of Risk-Aversion since the Meltdown of 2008
Need we go on? Not right now since we are out of room anyway. Next week - we'll start talking
about how some/all of the above can align in different ways to create a series of perfect storms for
individuals.
Filed under: Real Estate Of Mind Articles Tagged: low inventory, move-down buyers, move-up
buyers, real estate, santa cruz real estate, supply and demand ]]
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https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/23/the-whys-of-low-inventory/
https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/23/the-whys-of-low-inventory/#comments Fri, 23 Jan
2015 17:33:48 +0000
]]

We hear it all the time. Buyers want to Buy but they are
frustrated. Stuck. Mired in a market that doesn't seem to be on the same page as their desire to
buy. And Sellers want to Sell but they can't quite pull the trigger and put their houses on because
they can't figure out exactly where they are going or how they are going to get there.
The knot in the Mobius loop of supply gets tighter and tighter when Sellers insist on having a roof
over their heads after they sell (unless they have gone on to their final resting place). In order to
get it, they have to become Buyers in a market where there isn't much worth buying.
We could offer up the suggestion that more Sellers could rent after they Sell. But that's pretty much
of a non-starter for folks who've owned their own homes for awhile. And if there's anything more
disappointing than the number of homes to buy out there - it's the number of places available to
rent.
So we arrive at the Static Quo of our current Status Quo. Where the Quid No Quo of Low Inventory
begetting Low Inventory doesn't offer up many easy solutions.
Let's dig in and continue the discussion. If you want to catch up on previous columns leading up to
this one, go to tombrezsny@wordpress.com (the print is a bigger there too!)
Right now there are plenty of people talking about Low Inventory. But very few are talking about
"The Why" of low inventory. What's causing it? Perhaps it's time to start outing a few of the factors
contributing to the mix. Rounding up a list of likely suspects.
Here's an initial list of some of the lesser characters involved in aiding and abetting low inventory.
We'll call them "accessories to the time". The hotline is open for any additional tips you'd like to
call in.
Prop 13: The cap on annual property tax increases acts as a deterrent to selling in a market where
prices are rising.
Capital Gains Exemption of $250K/$500K for Singles/Couples: Many longtime residents are over
this cap and the tax consequences have ironically become a disincentive for some to sell homes
Rule Governing Step-ups in Tax Basis: Act as encouragement for many married sellers to stay in
their homes until one or the other to passes away before a move makes practical financial sense.
Sustained Low Interest Rates: Act as encouragement for homeowners and investors to hold on to the
real estate they've already purchased at incredibly low rates
The list will get longer next week. Then we'll spend more time examining it in greater detail. It's a
complicated mix of interrelated factors and underlying causes but I won't leave you hanging.

Filed under: Real Estate Of Mind Articles Tagged: low inventory, move-down sellers, move-up
buyers, real estate sales, supply and demand ]]
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Unknown https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/17/a-crimp-in-the-flow/
https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/17/a-crimp-in-the-flow/#comments Sat, 17 Jan 2015
23:41:00 +0000
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We're ten days into 2015 already! Time's-a-wastin' so
we better get to work. There's a real estate market out there waiting to be distilled. Here's a quick
recap to make sure we are all on the same page:
First: There's no more significant factor shaping today's real estate market than the sheer lack of
available inventory. A fact that has brought increasing frustration to buyers. Placed huge crimps in
the regular flow of transactions. And overwhelmed many people's ability to find practical ways to
move up or down in their lives. Anything else we might choose to talk about would pale in
comparison to the effects of our ongoing supply issue.
Second: Cyclical ups and downs in the marketplace aren't unusual or unexpected. World, national
and regional economies are always swinging back and forth at the same time the real estate market
is busy either leading the way or following suit - waxing and waning between Buyers' and Sellers'
interests, fluctuating waves of supply and demand and the subsequent rise and fall of prices.
Third: The precarious depth our inventory has now fallen to combined with the prolonged duration
of its decline is a powerful statement that current conditions aren't just another iteration of cyclical
business as usual. Something fundamental has shifted. Signaling a sea change well-beyond the
scope previously imagined.
Fourth: Low levels of inventory are a permanent fixture of the new market normal - a truth that will
continue to unfold over the course of the coming year. There's no simple solution to the inventory
problem, waiting around the corner, ready to nudge the supply cycle onto its next phase.
Fifth: There's no question that many of the big changes real estate is experiencing stem from
deeper, residual impacts still reverberating from the Great Recession. The world was turned upside
down in 2008. While it would be comforting to assume we could just resume where we left off before
the rude interlude of the last seven years, there are some aspects of how things work that have
changed forever.

Sixth: Something else happened on the way to the great recession and its patchwork recovery. The
perfect storm came along. While the economy was crashing and burning, the country was also
coming to the tipping point of a huge demographic shift that's been in the works for a long time.
Aging baby-boomers began reaching retirement age at the same time millennials began launching
journeys into adulthood. These significant life transitions are changing the essential fabric of our
culture. Redefining notions about quality of life and how people want to live it. We haven't quite
figured out how to make our new choices, find comfortable places and build strong new foundations
on all the left-over shaky ground we've got - where so many of the old rules no longer apply.
It's coming... but it's going to take courage, hard choices and a lot of work. More next week.
Filed under: Real Estate Of Mind Articles Tagged: low inventory, New Market Normal, santa cruz
real estate ]]
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https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/16/scratching-for-answers/
https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/16/scratching-for-answers/#comments Fri, 16 Jan 2015
23:31:00 +0000
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The main feature in last Sunday's SF Chronicle Real
Estate Magazine was a year-end poll that asked three high-profile Bay Area Realtors to respond to
the same question: What was the biggest surprise in the real estate market in 2014? All three
weighed in and gave the same exact answer: The biggest surprise, bar none, was the lack of
inventory of homes for sale.
The same conspicuously low inventory that has profoundly shaped every other factor in the market
for the last two years. The one that will continue to remain real estate's biggest elephant in the
room heading into 2015. The one for which there is no apparent magic wand, ready to transform our
severely ratcheted-down supply back into a steady, reasonable flow of good choices and
opportunities again. Suffice to say that we're heading back into crunch time soon. Once more unto
the breach Dear Friends.
None of the three were able to offer any enlightened perspective about "why" there is such low
inventory. Just that there is. And that's exactly what we've been scratching our real estate mind's
about these last few weeks. Trying to get a few answers. Or at least a clue.
So here's my latest, best thought: I remember a wise person, once telling me that if I wanted to
understand the big picture of real estate, I had to forget about all the nagging little ups and downs
of the economy. Things were always going to ebb and flow back and forth. That was the norm.

Getting hung up on smaller cycles was a form of misdirection, sure to obscure the true slight of hand
at work, changing the game on a much more fundamental level.
If I wanted to understand what was really going on, I should dig deeper. Not by drilling down ad
nauseum into reams of statistical analysis but rather by stepping back and adjusting my gaze toward
a broader, meta-view of the landscape.
When I couldn't figure out why something was happening, I should take note of any large
demographic trends taking place and start following them. Big changes in population - like shifts in
age, migration patterns, birth rates - often happen below the conscious awareness of everyday life.
Demographic changes are what happen when the world is busy making other plans.
Is there any evidence that suggests our prevailing pattern of low to no inventory is a symptom of a
much larger struggle that two different generations are having, trying to find their place in a world
turned upside down by the Great Recession? One that came of age and one that began reaching
retirement age both during the last ten years?
Next Week: Aging Baby-Boomers and Millennials looking for their places
Filed under: Real Estate Of Mind Articles Tagged: demographics and real estate, lack of inventory,
santa cruz real estate, supply and demand ]]
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2 https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/15/the-listing-drought/
https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/15/the-listing-drought/#comments Thu, 15 Jan 2015
23:28:00 +0000
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It's tempting to look at how low the number of active
listings has fallen at the moment and chalk it up to being a normal part of the seasonal ebb and flow
of the real estate market.
It's an easy excuse since historically, there are almost always fewer listings at this time of year than
in the spring and summer. No one likes putting their place on the market during the holidays if they
can help it. And surely there must be plenty of Sellers out there getting ready to put new listings on
the market in the coming months.
Except of course, we pretty much said the same thing last year. And the two years before that. And
somehow all those great new listings we assumed would be coming, haven't quite materialized to the

degree we hoped they would. As most prospective Buyers will attest, there have been a paltry few
but not nearly enough.
Since we emerged from the depths of the distress market in 2011, when short sales and REOs
artificially swelled the supply and comprised almost 30-40% of total closed transactions, the sheer
lack of available inventory has become the single most dominant factor driving our marketplace.
Significant lack of supply has become a year round condition rather than a seasonal fluctuation.
In 2010-11, everyone was worried about the Shadow Inventory. That was the euphemism given to a
huge secret stash of foreclosed homes that people figured all those big nasty banks must be
purposely holding off the market. They were fearful that if all that pent-up supply was somehow
released into the marketplace, prices would plunge even lower than the 40% drop they had already
experienced.
But ironically instead of torrents of Shadow Inventory flooding the market, we somehow have found
ourselves going through an unprecedented 3 year drought marked by relatively few new listings.
One that has pushed prices up dramatically while it has also been shaking up some of the long held
beliefs about the market we always thought we could rely on.
Take a moment to consider that this is the fewest number of homes that Santa Cruz has had for sale
in November/December in more than 18years. Add to that the fact that for 44 of the last 45 months,
the number of listings has been lower than it was in the same month the previous year. And from my
perspective, there is little on the horizon to suggest that real estate in 2015 is likely to be much
different than it has been these past few years.
So it begs the question: Is there something larger afoot in all of this? A fundamental shift in real
estate and how we view the nature of homeownership? To be continued...
Filed under: Real Estate Of Mind Articles Tagged: low inventory, market trends, nature of
homeownership, real estate listings, santa cruz real estate ]]
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https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/14/somethings-in-the-wind/
https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2015/01/14/somethings-in-the-wind/#comments Wed, 14 Jan
2015 23:26:12 +0000
]]
Let's start by recapping the conversation. The real

estate market is a shared collaboration between Buyers and Sellers. An ongoing co-creation that
happens between those who are listing and those who are looking. Without enough of one or
enough of the other or enough of both, the whole thing just doesn't succeed very well. It gets
harder to generate sales - which is exactly where we are at for the moment.
Right now, both sides seem to have settled into a tacit mutual agreement that allows them to take a
time out and to beat a quiet retreat to their respective corners. Presumably, they'll wait it out there
until the magic moment "in the spring," when the machinery cranks back up again.
I know ... it's supposed to happen this way. Exactly this way. It's all part of "the normal seasonal
pattern".
Every year around this time, as the theory goes, people become overly-absorbed with the holidays.
Caught up in the crunch. Obsessed with family, shopping and parties. Or obsessed withpreserving
their sanity in the face of all of the above. What are you reading this real estate section for? Get
busy and be with your family!
But is that all this is? The same old same old seasonal pattern? Is it that simple?
I've never been a big fan of the seasonal real estate theory. It has always seemed like an excuse to
take the easy way out. When in doubt - pull out the seasonal card. When you know what's
happening you don't need it to explain something more complicated.
I'm not comfortable rounding up all the factors at work shaping the market dynamic at any given
time so I can lump them under the heading of the one of real estate's lowest common denominators.
Like the weather. Or the holidays. Or Springbreak. Or tax time. Or school starting in the fall.
Do real estate transactions really falloff because everyone is on vacation or because it is raining? Are
they cliché-dependent? Those concepts are becoming less helpful each year,specially as the world
grow more diverse and continues to change in strange and mysterious ways.
So let's put away our handy excuse to explain why things have wound down to such a noticeable
degree right now. Something bigger is at work that we should be trying to figure out. This is the
45th straight month the number of listings hasfallen below the same month the previous year. I
think it's trying to tell us something.
Filed under: Real Estate Of Mind Articles Tagged: real estate, real estate patterns, santa cruz real
estate, seasonal real estate, year-end real estate ]]
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https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2014/12/06/is-it-break-time/

https://tombrezsny.wordpress.com/2014/12/06/is-it-break-time/#comments Sat, 06 Dec 2014
00:52:32 +0000
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This is for all the would-be Buyers waiting in the wings. Those taking a
temporary break from the rigors of the real estate market after experiencing months of frustration
and fatigue.
The one's who are girding their loins and girding their loans in preparation for next year's battle.
Hoping to rest and recuperate now, so they can be ready for the flood of new listings they are hoping
will arrive.
There are plenty of left-over Buyers out there who gave it their all in 2014. They deserve an A for
effort, even if they weren't quite able to make it over the hump to the promised land. Well-qualified
folks who just couldn't seem to out-smart a difficult market and find their way home.
It's hard to live a normal life and look for a house at the same time. That's particularly true in a
market that demands such an exhausting state of readiness and preparation at the same time it only
parcels a few meager new listings at a time to choose from.
Buyers who have been slogging around in the trenches in search of inventory for the last six months
or longer, know what that "always-on" feeling is like. The barrage of search engine e mails that
begins to look like spam rather than real opportunity.
Hours spent parsing Sunday open house ads trying to figure out whether "charming" really means
"fixer" or whether "cute" really means "tiny." And whether they should drop everything, jump in the
car and head out to the open house to see for themselves.
The rush of an unexpected for sale sign popping up in the perfect neighborhood. The promising
sneak peak of a new listing on Thursday's Brokers Tour. The call from a sister-in-law that heard a
rumor about a friend of a friend thinking about putting their house on the market. God forbid you
should take a vacation and miss that once in a lifetime opportunity that could happen at any
moment.
On again off again. Hurry up and wait. All addressed up with nowhere to go. Weeks and months of
looking hard but finding nothing. Until suddenly, a house appears out of the blue. It's
perfect...except for the fact that five other Buyers with competing offers seem to have had the same
revelation.
So many questions for all those would-be Buyers lining up in the queue for next year. What are they
waiting for exactly? Is 2015 really going to be any different? Is that flood of new listings really on

it's way?
To be continued...
Filed under: Real Estate Of Mind Articles Tagged: low inventory, real estate buyers, real estate
market, seasonal real estate ]]
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