4. Car Safety
‣ 1.2m cars tested last yr
‣ out of car parc of 1.9m
‣ 53% failed - 621,000
‣ 4,300 failed ‘dangerously’
HOW MANY WERE NOT TESTED?
5. increase in tests
‣ 754,000 cars tested so far this yr
‣ out of car parc of 1.9m
‣ 51% failed - 382,000
‣ 2,700 failed ‘dangerously
Why are there more cars being tested?
Continuous Road Tax
Increased NCT capacity
New 5 Penalty points offence
8. 2014 significant year for the motor industry
‣ First significant upward trend since ’08
‣ Suggests upward trend going forward
‣ 2nd yr of dual reg system
‣ july 1st best since 2nd jan ’08
‣ month may be best since ’08
‣ may be best july ever
‣ if trend continues ’14 best yr
since ’08?
9. But industry cautious
‣ cautious even talking about progress
‣ & potential to grow to 100k next yr
‣ conscious of fragility of recovery
conscious of potential for any
negative factor to set us back
10. SIMI Member Survey q2 (june)
over 60% confident about:
‣ outlook for own business
‣ outlook for industry
‣ positive but less than March (70%)
moving toward budget time - impacting?
!
potential for any increase in motoring
taxes to derail recovery
11. state gains from recovery in industry
‣ increased tax income
‣ gains in job creation
- thousands of extra jobs in 400 towns
- increase in apprentices
confidence tax rev. & employment
growth next yr. if no negative
impact in budget
12. focus on fleet renewal may be necessary
‣ next yr average car will be +10 yrs
‣ long argued for well focused
incentives to renew ageing fleet
‣ Environmental, safety, exchequer +
employment benefits
far more creative & rewarding way
to seek increased tax rev…. but
that’s for another day…
13. q2 review - what’s new?
‣ new data streams added
‣ interesting data on used car volumes
- through garages
- sales & trade-ins
- by county
- for first 6 months
- growth of 17%
survey - topics important to
members
- condition of ageing fleet
- activities of black economy
19. HOW REAL IS THE RECOVERY? THE EVIDENCE
• Modest recovery in retail sales, car sales very strong
• Labour market improving
• Exports still very volatile – patent issue very distorting
• Manufacturing output strong
• Housing market improving
• Exchequer deficit falling– tax revenues rising
• Troika exit and bond sales
• Business insolvencies declining
• Business & consumer confidence very strong
• External view very positive
• Many indicators moving in right direction
• Many challenges to work through
23. THE MOTOR INDUSTRY H1 2014
• New private cars registered +23.4%
• Light Commercial Vehicles +36.3%
• Heavy Commercial Vehicles +45%
• Every county reported good growth in new car registrations
• Imported Cars +16.5% (30.7% of Total Cars Licensed)
• CO2 Emissions continue to fall
• SIMI member confidence survey positive– enforcement an issue
• Costs of motoring : Year to June: Petrol -1.4%, Diesel -0.7%, Insurance +6.8%,
Average New Car price -3.1%
• Making stronger contribution to Exchequer
28. MARKET ISSUES
• Consumer demand & fragility
• Credit conditions – positive for motor trade, but
difficult elsewhere
• Imported vehicles – growing part of the market
• Age of car fleet : 77.8% 5 years or older Average age
>10y in 2015
• Impact of dual plates – strong story in July
• Important that Minister for Finance does not do
anything to derail fragile market recovery
29. BUDGET 2015
• €2 bln adjustment not necessary, very risky
• Recovery in motor industry having very
positive employment & Exchequer impact –
should not be de-railed
• Age of the fleet – safety & environment
• Enforcement a big issue for the Motor
Industry
• Maintaining current trend very important
30. EXCHEQUER REVENUES FROM MOTOR INDUSTRY H1 2014
NEW CAR
REGISTRATIONS
(€mln) % GROWTH
VRT 289 +21.9%
VAT 252 +26.4%
Total 541 +24.0%
USED CAR
REGISTRATIONS
(€ mln) % GROWTH
VRT 77 +15.8%
VAT 11 +15.0%
Total 88 +15.7%
GRAND TOTAL 629 +22.7%
32. ECONOMIC IMPACT & POTENTIAL OF INDUSTRY
• Contributed €629 mln to Exchequer in H1 2014 (€1.8 billion in
2007)
• Every 10,000 extra new cars +€82 million to Exchequer
• Q1 2014: 39,100 employed in industry
• 130 new jobs for every 1,000 extra cars sold
• Market of 95,000 in 2014 possible
• 105,000 in 2015, 115,000 in 2016 and 120,000 in 2017?
• Makes strong contribution to national and local economies
