The document summarizes a webinar discussing renovation tracks for Europe up to 2050. It describes three renovation scenarios that were modeled, varying the renovation rate and ambition level. Scenario 1 involved a shallow renovation approach that failed to meet CO2 reduction targets. Scenario 2 coupled a shallow renovation with high renewable energy use and met CO2 targets but with less energy savings. Scenario 3 incorporated a deep renovation approach with high efficiency and renewable energy use, achieving over 80% energy savings while meeting CO2 and cost goals. The analysis concluded that deep renovation was needed to successfully achieve European Union environmental and energy savings targets through 2050.

1. Renovation tracks for
Europe up to 2050
Ecofys webinar
05/02/2014
Thomas Boermans

2. Why renovation is so important
> Major saving potentials (CO2, energy)
> Reduce dependencies from (fossil) energy sources and avoid fuel poverty
> Possibility to improve comfort and quality of life
> Job creation, green growth, technology development
> Basically only one chance to do it right until 2050 (renovation cycles of 3040 years)
Renovation cycle
2010
2
2020
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2030
2040
2050

3. Why renovation is so difficult
> Obstacles for the building owner:
-
Significant upfront investment
-
Changing the look of the building
-
Will the quality be all right?
-
Investor-user conflict
> Challenges at country/market level:
-
Many stakeholders with different views and positions: policy level,
owners/investors, tenants, building companies, producers, architects,
engineers, associations etc.
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4. Long term target for the building sector at EU level
> In its “Roadmap for moving to a competitive
low carbon economy in 2050”, the European
Commission established a long-term
objective of decreasing the CO2-emission
levels for the building sector by 88%-91% in
2050 (compared to 1990 levels).
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5. Policies at EU level – the EPBD
> Requirements regarding ambition levels
within the Energy Performance of
Buildings Directive:
– cost optimal performance
requirements
(new buildings and renovation)
– Nearly zero-energy buildings
(all new buildings from 2021 on)
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6. EPBD - timeline new buildings
2010
2021
Cost optimal requirements
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20XX
nearly zero-energy
???

7. EPBD - timeline retrofit
2010
20XX
Cost optimal requirements
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20YY
nearly zero-energy?
???

8. Policies at EU level – Energy Efficiency Directive
> Requirements related to renovation
within the Energy Efficiency
Directive:
– MSs to develop renovation
roadmaps
– Renovation of central
government buildings (3% p.a.)
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9. Introduction to study (Ecofys for EURIMA, 2013)
The goal of reducing carbon emissions by 90% is
clear but how to get there? Which measures? How
to combine? How fast do we need to implement?
What would be the outcomes of different options in
terms of energy and CO2 savings, financial impacts
and employment effects?
Within the study, three renovation scenarios were
developed, characterized by two important
parameters:
•
speed of renovation (= renovation rate) and
•
the ambition level regarding energy efficiency
improvement and use of renewable energy
2050 horizon selected to reveal long term
consequences of choices to be made.
http://www.eurima.org/resource-centre
http://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/
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10. The methodology
BEAM² - Ecofys` bottom up model for the building sector
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11. The assessed scenarios
> Track 1: Shallow renovation, low contribution from renewable energy
Fast renovation (renovation rate 3%) & average energy efficiency ambition level
(~ 32 % reduction in energy use for space heating by 2050 compared to 2010),
taking into account market failures (e.g. failure to treat the building envelope as a whole),
low use of renewable energy.
> Track 2: Shallow renovation, and high use of renewable energy
Renovation rate 2.3% & average energy efficiency ambition level, taking into account
market failures (~ 58 % reduction in energy use for space heating); limited focus on energy
efficiency of the building envelope; advanced systems (high use of renewable energy and
heat recovery ventilation).
> Track 3: Deep renovation and high use of renewable energy
Renovation rate 2.3%, high level of energy efficiency improvement (~80% reduction in
energy use for space heating) high focus on energy efficiency of the building envelope;
advanced systems (high use of renewable energy and heat recovery ventilation).
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12. Model inputs – building stock data
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13. Model inputs – important parameters
Differentiated by region (for details, see study report):
> CO2-emission factors
> Investment costs
> Energy prices
Energy prices:
> The energy prices for gas and electricity are derived from Eurostat data for
household consumption. The prices for oil, pellets, heat pump electricity,
district heat and biomass are related to these Eurostat prices.
> The energy price rate increases (in real terms, excluding inflation) are
chosen at 2.0% for electricity and 2.8% for all other fuels. In the period
2032-2050 (after 30 years of applying such real price increase), constant
prices are assumed, which we believe puts estimates on energy costs
savings on the save side.
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14. Results - CO2-emissions (space heating and domestic hot water)
> Shallow renovation: missing target
> High efficiency focus + renewable energy and shallow renovation + RE: achieving target
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15. Results – final energy (space heating, without new buildings)
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16. Results – total costs (investment costs + energy costs)
> Shallow renovation: missing target, financially not significantly more attractive
> High efficiency focus + RE: achieving target at similar total costs
> shallow renovation + RE: slightly higher costs
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17. Overview of results
Retrofit
rate
C02Emissions
for space
heating and
domestic hot
water EU27 by
2050
Final Energy
use for space
heating EU27
by 2050
(without new
buildings)
Related
reduction in
final energy
use by 2050
compared to
2010
[%]
[Mt]
[TWh]
[%]
[trillion EURO]
Track 1
3.0%
498
1,987
32%
8.2
Track 2
2.3%
103
1,228
58%
8.8
Track 3
2.3%
93
613
80%
8.5
Scenario
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Total Costs
(investment costs
and energy costs for
space heating and
domestic hot water,
discounted costs for
period 2012-2050)

18. Conclusions I
> Can the 88%-91% CO2-emission savings target be achieved until
2050?
> Yes, track 2 and 3 arrive at approximately a 90% emissions savings, while
Scenario 1 clearly misses this target.
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19. Conclusions II
> Would 80% final energy savings be a suitable target?
> Yes, this is the right ambition level, with some considerations.
> A substantial reduction of final energy consumption supports the
achievement of the CO2 savings target. The 80% final energy savings target
(suggested by Parliament’s report on the EED) seems suitable, if it relates to
energy used for space heating. The deep renovation track delivers such
savings. When looking at the sum of space heating and domestic hot water,
the deep renovation track delivers -75% savings.
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20. Conclusions III
> Can “deep renovation” be a suitable way to achieve EU targets?
> Yes. The combination of extensive energy efficiency measures and high use of
renewable energy seems preferable to achieve, CO2 targets and energy savings.
> Track 1 (shallow renovation) misses the environmental target (CO2-emission)
and falls short on energy savings while not providing substantial economic
advantage compared to the deep renovation track.
> Track 2 (Shallow renovation and high use of renewable energy) meets the CO2-
target, but shows significant less energy savings while resulting in slightly higher
costs compared to the deep renovation track.
> The deep renovation track also offers the largest job creation potential of the
three scenarios.
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21. Outlook – how to achieve deep renovation of the stock?
Possible parts of a solution:
> At building level
–
improve energy performance of
the building whenever
maintenance/repair is due anyway
–
measures need to be „2050
proof“, especially on the building
envelope (> 30 years lifetime)
–
avoid lock-in-effects if e.g.
lifetimes of components cause the
renovation action to stretch
> Government
–
–
support via capacity building,
information, financing, incentives
–
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set requirements
(esp. component level)
check compliance
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22. Thank you for your attention!
Ecofys Germany GmbH
Thomas Boermans
Unit Manager Buildings
Am Wassermann 36
50829 Cologne
Germany
T: +49 (0)221 27070-151
E: t.boermans@ecofys.com
I: www.ecofys.com
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