ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Prof. Koichi Kitazawa, Former Executive Director, Japan Science and Technology Agency - Nuclear Friend or Foe

Lessens Learned from
3.11 Fukushima Nuclear Accident
Koichi Kitazawa
Private Sector Investigation Committee
on Fukushima Nuclear Accident
Japan Science council, energy policy options
Japan Science and Technology Agency
ISES 2013-Nuclear Energy, Trondheim June12-15, 2013

500km
Hokkaido
Tokyo
Sendai
The Great East
Japan Earthquake
3.11 2011
The largest ever in
Japan, mag. 9.0

Total casualties 18600.
97% due to Tsunami

Tsunami invaded
along 500km
coast with av.
1km into land
500km x 1km
5 of 17NPS
stations in the
Tsunami area
.
30% of total elec.
power generated
by NP.

Nuclear fission : a million times larger energy than chemical burning
→1kg fuel vs. 1000 tons/day/1GW power station
A BWR NPS
Tsunami →damage of sea water inlet + SBO
→Water supply stopped.→Severe Accident

10000 fuel rods
for nuclear fission
　　　
7% of heat from
residual radio-
activity even
after stopping
of fission
Cooling!!
Gasket sealant
Several ｔ ons/h
H2
Suppression chamber
Reactor
container
Pressure
vessel
Spent fuel rod pool
BWR reactor of
Fukushima Daiichi
Loss of
Water
→ H2,
meltdown

Unit 1
2
3
4
Turbine bldg
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

Discharge of Radioactive Substances
from the Fukushima Dai-ichi
Nuclear Power Station
• The second worst in the world history
• Level 7, the worst level （ INES ）
• 1/7 of contamination of Chernobyl
• It could have been much more serious
or much less 　←　 prepared?

Contamination
With
134Cs & 137Cs
2012 Nov. 5
Evacuation
< 20mSv/y area
20-50mSv/y area
>50mSv/y area
Tokyo
Sendai
80,000
evacuated
additional
80,000 on
own willKyoto

New regulations in the area of contamination
• De-contamination of radioactive substance
for earlier return to home
50-20mSv/y areas
to reduce anxiety of residents
1 ～ 20mSv/y areas
1mSv/y---conventional regulation level
Areas >50mSv/y: assigned for no-return area
within 5 yrs

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident
• It could have been much worse than the reality.
Fortuitous developments saved the
spent fuel pool of No.4 unit from loosing water.
Unit No.2 worried for possible explosion
of the reactor vessel ←Pressure went up.
• It could have been much less serious if proper
counter measures taken to introduce water
into the core earlier.
Unprepared against the “severe accident”
Too late!! when sea water was introduced.
Fukushima 50 still appreciated to have prevented
the further worsening of the reactors.

The worst case scenario
• Reactor unit #4 lost the building roof←H2 leak
• The spent fuel pool exposed directly to the air
No confinement vessel if radio activity leaks
• The sfp is much more radio active.
• The sfp needed water cooling.
• Dry up feared ← The cooling stopped ←SBO
• “after shock” feared
• Evacuation of 30M metropolitan people possible
• Unexpected water supply to sfp from neighbor.

Spent fuel rods for
ca. 10 years
stored. 　　　
To introduce water
in emergency, the
pressure must
be released
by “vent”.
Gasket sealant
Several ｔ ons/h
H2
Suppression chamber
Reactor
container
Pressure
vessel
Spent fuel rod pool
BWR reactor of
Fukushima Daiichi

Indirect/essential causes of the accident
• Lack of precautions for the severe accidents
better knowledge about the emergency cooling system
storage of supplementary batteries
matching of external electric power supplier cars
knowledge of manual vent systems
extension of the valve shaft for safer vent
lack of vent filter
rehearsal of residents to escape for evacuation
• Negligence of the regulatory agencies
safety guide no consideration necessary for long hour“
black-out” by the Nuclear Safety Commission
Oral regulation to avoid written specifications by

54 nuclear reactors in Japan
Only 2 on operation at the moment.

18
http://vitalsigns.worldwatch.org/vs-trend/global-nuclear-generation-capacity-falls
Three Mile Island
Pennsilvania
Fukushima
Chernobyl, Soviet Union

● ： Nuclear reactors 　　　
Location of earthquakes bigger than Mg 6.0 ●
　　 20% near Japan(50 times more frequent) 　
Additional special condition in Japan

People’s desire of de-nuclearization if possible
Finite risk does remain. nuclear plant not “fail safe”
A gigantic risk →collapse of a whole country possible
+ Nuclear waste negative heritage >10000yrs
Are alternative energy sources feasible?
Fossil energy: coal, oil, natural gas, shale gas
Renewable energy: expensive initial cost
unstable (intermittent)
wide space needed
CO2 emission, depleting resource
Exceptions:
Hydro Stable
geothermal Low cost

Crude oil price & import
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
( / )原油価格円ｋℓ 原油輸入額（兆円）
円 /kℓ 兆円
年度
Energy White Paper 2011
1st
oil
shock
’79 2nd
oil shock ‘90 Gulf
war
‘05 3rd
oil shock
1980
1990
2000
2010
1970 Energy import of Japan: $2000/yr person

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2010
2012
2016
2020
2030
2040
年度
TWh発電量（）
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2010
2012
2016
2020
2030
2040
年度
TWh発電量（）
Japan Science Council Proposed options
for shift
Sept. 2011scenario 　Ａ scenario 　Ｂ Scenario Ｃ
scenario 　Ｄ scenario 　Ｅ scenario 　Ｆ
化石燃料
再生可能エネルギー
Fossil
RENuc
Hydrp 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2010
2012
2016
2020
2030
2040
年度
TWh発電量（）
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2010
2012
2016
2020
2030
2040
年度
TWh発電量（）
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2010
2012
2016
2020
2030
2040
年度
TWh発電量（）
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2010
2012
2016
2010
2030
2040
年度
TWh発電量（）
大規模水力大規模水力
大規模水力大規模水力大規模水力
化石燃料化石燃料化石燃料
化石燃料
原子
力発電原子力発電
原子力発電
原子力発電原子力発電
2020

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2010
2012
2016
2020
2030
年度
TWh発電量（）
Nucl.30%
Fossile
Fuel 60%
Renewable 50%
FY
Dam hydro
9%
Energy
Saving
Electricpower(TWh)
1% GDP (500USD/yr/person)
investment needed for RE
To grow to 50% of elec. power
By 2020 to keep UN promise
Sci.Council J
2011
Efficiency improvement

The Empirical Rule by Kitazawa
　“ Land Area determines for nuclear or de-nuclear”
　　 Russia, China, US> India>(Chile)>Ukrain>
France>Spain>Sweden>(Ecuador)
Japan>Germany>Italy>Korea>Austria>
Switzerland>Taiwan>Belgium
　“ One Fukushima may destroy the whole
country”
　
　　　
　　　　　
Additional factors:
latent threat from other type of energy security
economic growth more urgent for developing countries

Japanese policy for future energy
Dec. 2012 General Election
• “Democrat party government” till the end of 2012
ex-nuclear at ca. 2030 by gradual decrease
• New Gov “Liberal Democratic party”
“decision suspended for 3-4 years”
“restart of the stopping nuclear plants as far
as their safety confirmed by
the new Nuclear Regulatory Authority”
“Efforts paid to introduce renewable energy”

Efficient energy conversion
and
energy saving
Now it is the time to pay every efforts for energy
saving the first.
•combined cycle power generator→triple cycle
•Energy saving
fuel cell +gas turbine +steam turbine

Carbon tax
to provide
comprehensive
incentives
final target
50(-80)%
by 2050
Manufacturing, transportation and daily life
cost of energy ↑by 2 energy saving to 1/2⇔
three important area for energy saving

Heat pumps
Thermal insulation
underground heat
LED
Heat pumps
Fuel cell +
water heating
(Enefarm)
IH heater
microwave

CAR WEIGHTCAR WEIGHT
kg
HYBRID CAR
EV, FC CAR
FUEL
CONSUMPTION
FOREIGN CAR
DOMESTIC CAR
Energy Saving with automobiles
1/4

ENERGY SAVING OF HOME REFREGERATOR
80% in 20 yrs
Heat pumps
(kWh/L/yr)

34
REN 2011
World Investment for Renewable E
Exceeding 200 B$ /yr
Becoming a gigantic world industry
B$

35
自然エネルギー白書 2012 より
http://www.map.ren21.net/GSR/GSR2012.pdf

36
http://www.isep.or.jp/images/press/Eneshift-ISEP20110614.pdf
　 Wind power accumulated capacity → >100GW 　
US,China: asset finance
Europe: Feed-in-tariff
China
US
Germ
Spain
India
Denm
Japan
　Capacity(MW)

38
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feed-in_tariff#Germany
Price of electricity by solar cells in Germany
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2012
Rooftop >1MW
Rooftop <30kW
Japanese FIT
Yen/kWh
FY
Grid-parity at home
achieved in 2010
→no more FIT needed
German FIT
price

39 39
Stability of power supply
Pump-up hydro
+ Gas turbine
Batteries + Fuel cells
Typical solar cell output
Typical wind mill monthly output
fine
cloudy
rainy
Taking average by
connection of many
Power generators
desired

Red Eléctrica de España 　 HP より
Spanish example of adjusting for supply-demand gap
（ CECRC ） 2009.12.31
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil/GasWind
Other renewables
export
０ O’clock 24 O’clock
RE/total electric consumption 40-60%
import

Japanese Feed-in-Tariff
• Started in 2012 July
3GW contracted for solar (doubling)
easy installation
0.5 GW with wind (← slow due to regulation)
　　　　　 cost effectiveness highest
geothermal not yet (←national park law )
good because of stability, low cost
wave, tidal, ocean current: on R&D stage

42
Windy area
Weak power transmission lines in
north areas (Hokkaido and Tohoku)

Total
farmland
abandoned
House
land
Needed area to
support
total electricity
roof
Solar Panel Area Needed
3960km2
46100km2
21500
km24000km2
6550km2
63km2
20km 圏内
1820km2
43
Parking
area

land shortage problems→solar sharing

45 45
Hywind Floating Windmill
(Norway)
http://webronza.asahi.com/
global/2011041400011.html
Off-shore Floating Windmill
Wind lens type
with fish cultivation pool
Kyushu Univ. Prof.
Kyozuka
Lower noise by 10dB
Output enhancement 3X
No bird strike
fish culture pond

4646
0
250
500
750
1 ,000
1 ,250
1 ,500
1 ,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
2010
総
発
電
量
（
実
績
）
2010
原
子
力
（
実
績
）
太
陽
光
風
力
（陸
上
）
風
力
（洋
上
）
地
熱
中
小
水
力
等
環境省「平成 22 年度度再生可能エネルギー導入ポテンシャル調査」か
ら試算
※ 原子力は資源エネルギー庁統計より
ＴＷｈ
46
Electricity generated
2010
Nuclear 2010 Solar
W
ind
(land)
W
ind
(off shore)
Geotherm
al
Sm
all hydro
potential development of RE in Japan
Assumption:
The current legal
and cost status
(Ministry of
Environments)

Which direction to go?
• Japanese import of fossil fuel
max in 2008 $2,000/y/person
• Electric power total sales $1,300 (2010)
• Nuclear energy share (30%) $400
• Investment needed for RE $500 fast case
• Investment for transmission line $100
• Solar power: 30% for panels, 70% for the rest
• Population 125M GDP/person $45,000
• Total expenditure for amusement $8,000
• Education of children $500
• net income from overseas investment $1,000
What is worth to be paid? What do we live for?
RE industry?
Amusement?
Moral?, happiness?

land shortage problems
Ichihara-shi, Chiba Pref.
proposed by Nagashima
& Matsuoka
Solar sharing :Cell stripe and interval space
to leave enough light for agriculture 。
49
Growth rate
saturates
with light
intensity

Farm lands and solar cell
• Farm houses with wider roofs
• doubling of peasant’s income possible
14000$ →28000$ by 200m2 solar panel
good timing for Tohoku area restoration
←FIT, restoration policy
　　 pension plan for local enterprises
　　 low risk with 6% interest rate
→Fishery + wind mill

• JST (ALCA project for game changing tech.)
Japan Science and Technology Agency
• NEDO (road map R&D for commercialization)
New Energy Development Organization
Researches at universities
(game changing technologies)

Organic liquid Si
Prof. Shimoda (JAIST)
organic molecular thin film
solar cell Mitsubishi Chem. > 10%
Prof. E.Nakamura (Tokyo Univ)
Si painting?

Umena Y., Kawakami K., Shen J.-R., Kamiya N.
Nature: 　 473,Pages:55–60 　 (05 May 2011)
Crystal structure of oxygen-evolving photosystem II
(Okayama, Osaka city Univ) Distorted
Chair str.
Mn
Mn
M
Ca
O
O
O
O
O
Mn
PHOTOSYNTHESIS  ARTIFICIAL PHOTOSYNTHESIS

Efforts toward
artificial photo synthesis
• Tokyo Univ. Prof. Domen, Honda-Fujishima
H2 evolution photo-catalyst (TiO2)
• Tokyo Metropolitan Univ. Prof. Inoue
Organic complex photo-catalyst

Performance revolution in 2005 HTS cable
臨
界
電
流
ｘ
線
材
長
さLxIc(77K)
Tc
20 years needed to enhance Ic

56
150
230
超電導ケーブル
150
管路
既存ＣＶ
ケーブル
600800
2100
340
水冷管
トラフ
洞道
～
66kV
HTS Cable
66kV
Switching
Station
66kV
Switching
Station
684MW
684kV
500kV
(Existing
Conduit)
Conventional
Cable
HTS Cable
100% shield
(New & Large
Diameter
Tunnel ）
～
～
275kV
275kV
S/S
275kV
S/S
66kV
66kV
684MW
684MW
275kV
～
500kV Substation
mm
mm
(T. Hara et al., Advances in Superconductivity II, (1990) 1059.)
YOKOHAMA HTS Cable Project
HTS Cable Demonstration Project in Live Grid
•66kV - 2kA - 200MVA Bi2223 wire
• ~ 250 meter long, One cable-to-cable Joint

The 1st
practical superconducting cable
To be instaled in Sapporo in 2014.
Data center – power plant
Planned to extend the superconducting
Low-V large-I line to wind mills.

K. Kitazawa “Newton” 　 Jan. (2001)
Global Superconducting Grid
with natural renewable energy resources

Global superconducting grid
No loss in
transmission
(DC mode)

JR type MAGLEV
test since 1964
SC perp-
etual
magnet
Ground
coil(Cu)
Ground
Propul-
sion coil
levitation
propulsion

推進コイル
ガイドウェイ
超電導磁石
浮上・案内兼用コイル
Superconducting MAGLEV
Japan Railway Company
2025 Tokyo-Nagoya
Propulsion coil
Levitation and guide coil
Guide way
SC magnet
Perpetual current mode

☆No limit on traveling speed
　　　 business speed ： 500km/h
(2,000km/h possible under
depressurized atmosphere)
　　　 Jet Aircraft: 1,000km/h
☆No exhaust gas
☆Quieter than automobiles
☆Energy saving: one-third of domestic airplanes
☆Safer than railways Floating clearance (10cm)
　　　 Volume supported (not point contact)
☆Ease of maintenance: resistant to sand,
earthquakes, and snow
superconducting MAGLEV (JR)
Yamanashi test line

ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Prof. Koichi Kitazawa, Former Executive Director, Japan Science and Technology Agency - Nuclear Friend or Foe

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ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Prof. Koichi Kitazawa, Former Executive Director, Japan Science and Technology Agency - Nuclear Friend or Foe