Presentation by Professor Bill McGuire to the UK insurance industry on Friday 23 October at the Chartered Insurance Institute, London.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE: to lead or follow? Bill McGuire Professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards University College London The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential ©Benfield Hazard Research Centre 2003

3. Where are we now? The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential ©Benfield Hazard Research Centre 2003 2 º C 0.74 º C 1.34 º C 2 º C 280 387 450 ppm CO 2 Where next? Dangerous Climate Change (DCC) threshold? 387 450 280 387 450 280 387 450 ppm CO 2 280 387 450 ppm CO 2 280 387 450 Where next? 450 Where next? 387 450 Where next? 280 387 450 Where next? 280 387 450 Where next? 0.74 º C DCC threshold may be well below 450 ppm UK Met Office study: only 20% chance that holding levels at 450 ppm would prevent a 2 º C rise ppm CO 2 280 387 450 Where next?

4. Where are we going? Emissions The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential ©Benfield Hazard Research Centre 2003 “ high” “ medium high” “ medium” © Crown copyright Met Office Current trend

5. Where are we going? Temperature The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential ©Benfield Hazard Research Centre 2003 Medium emissions scenario (A1B) © Crown copyright Met Office

6. Not the whole picture: the carbon-cycle time-bomb The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential ©Benfield Hazard Research Centre 2003 © Crown copyright Met Office 1850 – 150 – 100 – 50 0 50 100 1950 2000 2050 2100 Carbon removals from atmosphere (Gt C) vegetation carbon soil carbon 1900 Carbon uptake by plants in 20 th century has buffered the past CO 2 rise But climate change may put this into reverse

7. A more likely scenario The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential ©Benfield Hazard Research Centre 2003 Medium emissions scenario (A1B) © Crown copyright Met Office

8. Towards 2100: temperature change by 2090s compared to 1990s ( °C) The information contained in this document is strictly proprietary and confidential ©Benfield Hazard Research Centre 2003 © Crown copyright Met Office