This document discusses trends and issues facing libraries in the digital future. It notes that users and expectations will continue to diversify, content will be dominated by non-text formats, and devices will focus on collaboration and creation. Libraries will need to focus on strategic alignment and reduced roles in organizing knowledge. Key shifts include e-learning moving to the cloud, increased content fragmentation across formats and licenses, and the rise of non-text content like video and 3D objects. Technologies and user environments will also continue fragmenting across different devices, platforms and demographics. The future of libraries lies in focusing on niche users, experimenting with new models like mobile cohorts, and designing services that are frictionless across all devices and user experiences.

1. Working in The Information Future:
FrankenLibraries or Librarytopia
Stephen Abram, MLS
Librarians Without Borders
Dalhousie University, Halifax, Feb. 7, 2013

4. 4
It’s simple really
• Users will continue to be diverse in the extreme
• Expectations around timeliness will increase
• We will have a foot in both camps for many years to come: digital and
print text
• Content will (is already) be dominated by non-text (gamification, 3D,
visual, audio, etc.)
• Search will explode with options and one-step is for dummies
• The single purpose device is dead as a target environment
• Devices will focus on social, collaboration, sharing, multimedia, creation
• Librarians will need to focus primarily on service and strategic alignment
(reduced roles in organizing knowledge and step&fetchit)
• E-Learning, collections and metadata will go to the cloud massively

5. 5
Market Share versus Winner Thinking

6. Deer in headlamps slide here.

8. Library Megatrends

9. Content Fragmentation
•Digitization’s real impact – non-fiction
•Format
• Print, ePUB, PDF, Kindle, etc. etc.
• CD, DVD, USB, etc. etc.
• Streaming
• Licenses, Open Access, Creative Commons, etc.
•eBooks, eJournals, eContent
•Games, Learning Objects, Guides, …
•Copyright Issues (NatGeo, Tasini, TPP, SOPA, etc. etc.)
•Author Lawsuits, WikiLeaks
•Citation fragmentation

10. Beyond Text
•Text
•Graphics & Charts
•Formulae
•Pictures, Maps
•Video & Audio
•3D objects
•Gamification
•Deep Data Mining
•Assessments
•Community collaboration, cohorts, & social sharing
•etc. etc. etc.

11. Walled Gardens or Infinite Access
•ILS
•CMS
•Cloud(s)
•Device dependencies
•Formats (e.g. Kindle)
•Discovery versus consumer search versus native
search
•4 horseman to watch:
•Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook (not Microsoft)

12. Learning Object Diversification
•Textbooks
•eLearning (white label, proprietary, custom,…)
•Learning Management Systems
•Cohort Learning Environments
•Presentation Systems
•Virtual Conference Environment
•Personal Learning Environments (PLEs)
•Collaboration Software
•MOOCs, e-learning, ‘distance environments’
•Open Access, scholarly publishing and deep
aggregations digitization

13. End User Fragmentation
•Teens / Post-Millennials
•Millennials
•Aging workforce and tipping points
•Other demographics
•The new digital divide is not economic or aligned with
poverty
•Business versus Consumer
•The Device Divide
•Mobility

14. Search Fragmentation
•The new Algorithms
•Consumer Search
•Specialized Search
•Professional Search
•Semantic, Sentiment, Social, Suggestion Search etc.
•Mobile search
•Social search
•Augmented Reality
•SEO & SMO
•Content Spam
•Geo-location
•Ultimate search choice

15. Technology Fragmentation
•Feature Phones die
•Smartphones
•Tablets (Phablets?!)
•Laptops
•Desktops
•Gaming stations
•Television as device
•E-Readers (e-paper versus plasma)
•Internet of Things
•Browsers lose dominance to apps and HTML5

17. 17

18. Black and White
• The polarization of discussion
Dogmatic vs. Professional positions on:
eBooks, access, copyright, etc.
Political and social value systems in conflict

19. Black & White

25. 1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
Double a penny every day for a month =
Over $1 billion in just 30 days
800,000,000
600,000,000
Series1
400,000,000
200,000,000
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

26. Definitions
• Discovery
• Search – known item retrieval
• Topical or Subject Search
• Research
• Immersive Learning
• Assembly
• Two step discovery:
discover, searching, finding, use

27. Recognize key shifts

28. 28
OMG – the digital book!

29. Trends Differ Slightly by Library Sector
•Public Libraries
•Academic Research Libraries
•Community College Libraries
•School Libraries
•Specialized Libraries
•Consortia
And so do the audiences, members, users …

30. Public Libraries
•Recommendations (LibraryThing for
Libraries, Bibliocommons, Book Psychic)
•Community Glue
•Economic Impact and VALUE studies
•Programs on steroids aligned with collections and
space
•Partnerships
•Education and Learning – REALLY committing to
learning and accreditation/ credits / diplomas /
certificates
•Renewed advocacy moves to Influencing and selling

31. Academic Research Libraries
•Confronting and acknowledging the Academic Bubble
•eLearning alignment, MOOCs, LibGuides
•Repositories . . . Content Archipelagos? Standards and
Cooperation
•LibGuides next generation
•Patron-driven acquisitions
•Post-literacy: Information Fluency versus ‘literacy’
•Demarcation between Undergrad, Grad and Faculty/Staff
•Dealing with different personae
•Copyright compliance
•E-Coursepacks and e-Reserves
•Strategic budgeting
•Partnerships and Liaison roles and managing same sustainably

32. Community College and Undergrad
•Information Literacy
•Distance education and eLearning
•Textbooks, Reserves, Coursepacks, e-all
•MOOCs
•Mobility
•Collections for new degrees and certifications
•Dealing with the scalability issue in Higher Ed

33. School Libraries
•Dealing with cost-effectiveness
•Common Core and ‘new’ curriculum
•Aligning with research
•21st Century Learning
•Future of the Textbook
•Scaffolded Information Literacy / Fluency
•Filters
•Staff and Faculty relationships
•Classroom pages
•Impact

34. Specialized Libraries
•Intranets
•MS SharePoint
•Relationship building
•Embedded Librarianship
•Personal branding
•Outsourcing
•Training (scalability)
•Proving impact, value, and mission alignment

35. Consortia
•Consortia
•CRKN, OCUL, TAL, etc.
•OCLC Linked Data, RDA and global metadata
strategies
•DPLA
•Library Renewal
•EveryLibrary Advocacy PAC
•3M e-books (CALIFA / Douglas County
initiatives)
•Dark literature, orphan works, etc.
•Cloud initiatives

36. So what is the answer?
Where are the real pain points?

38. Grocery Stores

39. Grocery Stores

40. Grocery Stores

41. Cookbooks, Chefs . . .

42. Cookbooks, Chefs . . .

43. Meals

44. Are we going to a totally build it yourself world?
Imagine IKEA merging with GM...

47. Let’s think
Think: Are you thinking
food, courses, days, weekly plan, or
nutrition overall?
What is a meal in library end-user community or research, education and learning terms? Are you focusing on scale?

48. The new
bibliography and
collection
development
KNOWLEDGE
PORTALS
KNOWLEDGE,
LEARNING,
INFORMATION &
RESEARCH
COMMONS

49. What are the real issues?
•Craft versus Industrial Strength
•Personal service only when there’s impact
•Pilot, Project, Initiative versus Portfolio Strategy
•Hand-knitted prototypes versus Production
• e.g. Information Literacy initiatives
• Discovery versus Search versus Deep Search
• eLearning units
• Citation and information ethics
•Strategic Analytics
• Value measures
• Behaviours, Satisfaction

50. What We Never Really Knew Before
 27% of our users are under 18.
 59% are female.
 29% are college students. We often
 5% are professors and 6% are teachers. a lot
believe
that isn’t true.
 On any given day, 35% of our users are there for the very
first time!
 Only 29% found the databases via the library website.
 59% found what they were looking for on their first search.
 72% trusted our content more than Google.
 But, 81% still use Google.

51. 2010 Eduventures Research on Investments
 58% of instructors believe that technology in courses positively impacts student engagement.
 71% of instructors that rated student engagement levels as “high” as a result of using
technology in courses.
 71% of students who are employed full-time and 77% of students who are employed part-
time prefer more technology-based tools in the classroom.
 79% of instructors and 86 percent of students have seen the average level of engagement
improve over the last year as they have increased their use of digital educational tools.
 87% of students believe online libraries and databases have had the most significant
impact on their overall learning.
 62% identify blogs, wikis, and other online authoring tools while 59% identify YouTube and
recorded lectures.
 E-books and e-textbooks impact overall learning among 50% of students surveyed, while 42%
of students identify online portals.
 44% of instructors believe that online libraries and databases will have the greatest
impact on student engagement.
 32% of instructors identify e-textbooks and 30% identify interactive homework solutions as
having the potential to improve engagement and learning outcomes. (e-readers was 11%)
 49% of students believe that online libraries and databases will have the greatest
impact on student engagement.
 Students are more optimistic about the potential for technology.

52. 52
What we know is POWERFUL! Facts + Stories
• Via Stephen’s Lighthouse Blog
• “Curb Your Librarian Frustration in 8 Easy Steps”
• New York State 2012 Summary of School Library Research
• Ken Haycock OLA Summary of School Library Impact Studies
• Gale / McKinley HS Study by Project Tomorrow
• Project Tomorrow reports to Congress
• Alison Head and Information Fluency research
• Foresee Data and Overall Usage Data
• Pew Internet & American Life reports
• Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation studies for ALA
• IMLS, NCES, ARL, ACRL, ALA, LJ, etc.

63. Be More Open to the Users’ Path

64. What Would You Attempt If
You Knew You Would Not
Fail?

65. My Humble Recommendations
 Focus on the specific user niche, I mean really
 Pilot and experiment with mobile social cohorts
 Classes (mobile training or extended learning)
 Reading cohorts and book clubs
 Member, Researcher and Learner driven strategies first
 Associations, Consortia and Collaboratives
 Fundraising (e.g. Kickstarter)
 Reorganize for simplicity and flexibility, by function not subject
 Cross-functional Teams (business or sport)

66. My Humble Recommendations
Actively lobby and educate to ensure that the
emerging mobile ecosystem supports the values and
principles of librarianship for balance in the rights
of end users for use, access, learning and research.
 Support vendors and laws to be as agnostic as
possible by ensuring that, as far as possible your
services and content offerings support the widest
range of devices, formats, browsers, and platforms.

67. Get to where the user is.
eLearning, Mobile, Di
stant, Virtual
Tools

68. My Humble Recommendations
 Design for frictionless access using such opportunities
as geo-IP and mobile ready websites
 Test everything in all browsers – mobile or not – all
devices. You cannot control the end-user ecology
 Invest in usability research aimed at the user
experience and test and learn from it and share your
learning.
 Don’t prioritize the librarian experience first!
 Watch key developments in major publishing spaces –
retail, video, kiddy lit, textbooks, e-learning, fiction, etc.
Spot the differences and opportunities

69. • This is an evolution not a revolution
 The REAL revolution was the Internet and the Web.
 The hybrid ecology is winning in the near term for
operating systems and content formats. It’s not going to
be print vs digital or tablets vs laptops. That’s too easy.
 This is good since competition drives innovation and
we’re in a Renaissance not an end game right now.
Ambiguity will rule and that’s uncomfortable.
 Engage in critical thinking not raw criticism. Be
constructive. Critical thinking is not part of dogma or
religious fervor or fan boy behavior.

70. • This
is an evolution not a revolution
 Perfectionism will not move us forward at this
juncture.
 Really understand the digital divide and remove your
economic and social class blinkers
 Get real about teens and Boomers
 Get over library obsession with statistics and
comprehensiveness.
 Get excellent at real measurements, sampling and
understanding impact and satisfaction.
(Analytics, Foresee, Pew)

71. • This is an evolution not a revolution
 We need to revisit the concept of
preservation, archives, repositories, and
conservation from an access and linked data
view.
 Check out new publishing models like
Flipboard and MOOCs.
 Watch for emerging book enhancements and
other features that will challenge library
metadata, selection policies, preservation, and

72. Choose

74. A Third Path

77. Smelly Or
Yellow Sex
Liquid Appeal?

78. Focus on the Whole Experience

80. Until lions learn to write their own story,
the story will always be from the perspective
of the hunter not the hunted.

82. Stephen Abram, MLS, FSLA
Consultant, Dysart & Jones, Lighthouse Partners
Cel: 416-669-4855
stephen.abram@gmail.com
Stephen’s Lighthouse Blog
http://stephenslighthouse.com
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