ONS Economic Forum - 14 November 2022

Economic Forum
14 November 2022
Chair – Sonia Carrera
@ONSfocus #economicforum slido #40966
Interim Deputy Director
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics

Agenda
09.30am – 09.35am Climate and environment introduction – Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist, Office
for National Statistics
09.35am – 09.50am Climate Change Insights – Angela Watkins, Office for National Statistics
09.50am – 10.05am Greenhouse gas emissions and other environment measures, UK & Europe,
2020 – Alexandra Christenson, Office for National Statistics
10.05am – 10.10am Defining and measuring Green Jobs – Gemma Thomas, Office for National
Statistics
10.10am – 10.25am Q&A
10.25am – 10.30am Closing remarks – Sonia Carrera, Interim Deputy Director, Office for National
Statistics

Questions can be submitted via the slido app using code #40966.
You can also access slido via the link in the chat box.

Climate and environment
Introduction
Grant Fitzner
Chief Economist and Director of
Macroeconomic Statistics and Analysis
@GrantFitzner

Climate change
insights
Angela Watkins

Why Climate Change?
 More than a third (37%) of businesses *are* concerned
about the impact climate change may have on them
74% of adults are worried about climate change,
Worries about climate change, 14 sept to 9 October 2022

Climate Change Insights roadmap
Accessibility and coherence of UK
climate change statistics
OSR
27 October 2021
Aligning the UK’s economic goals
with environmental sustainability
Environmental Audit Committee
5 April 2022
Pilot
12 May 2022
Introduction of ‘themes’
Families and Households
11 August 2022
Natural and Rural Environments
11 November 2022
TBC
Economy (Business) and
Transport
February 2023
Health
TBC
May 2023

The 21st century so far has been warmer than any
period of equivalent length in the previous three
centuries.
All seasons are warmer than at any time since
records began in 1659.

Winter
1.1 °C above average
7% less rainfall
Spring
24% less rainfall
Summer
38% less rainfall
Autumn (so far)
11% more rainfall

Growing degree
days have
increased in all
parts of the UK
between 1960
and 2021

Impacts on Wildlife
• 38 species of bird in Great
Britain are breeding earlier,
due to the earlier arrival of
spring.
• 3,248 non-native species
(plants and wildlife) registered
in Great Britain as of 2020.
• Fall in pollinators of 30%
between 1980 and 2017

UK Greenhouse gas emissions from land use
and agriculture have fallen since 1990*
*despite some recent
increases
• Agriculture – 11% of total
emissions in 2020
• Land use, land use change,
and forestry – 1% of total
emissions in 2020

But considerable variation across the UK

Impact of land use
• Forest land removes more
carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere than is emitted by
any other land type
• Woodland accounts for 13% of
the UK:
• 19% of Scotland
• 15% of Wales
• 10% of England
• 9% of Northern Ireland
• Both extent and condition matter

Urban areas
ONS Natural Capital
Accounts estimate the total
annual value of the cooling
benefit of blue and green
space in UK urban areas
£26,795
million in
2020

There’s even more in our publication…
• Renewable energy
• Farmers’ attitudes to climate change and emissions
• What people think about links between people's use of
the environment and climate change
• Water consumption
• Rising sea levels

Climate Change Insights: Families and Households
Domestic emissions = 26% of all UK emissions

Coming up in Climate Change Insights…
• Economy / business and transport
• Health

ONS are a curator of statistics

Get in touch
• we will be hosting a technical webinar on 16 November, to
provide an overview of the Portal and some of its newer
features, including dashboards and explainer articles, as
well as the datastore and how to access and download
datasets.
• https://climate-change.data.gov.uk
• Climate.change@ons.gov.uk

Environmental accounts lead
Greenhouse gas
emissions and other
environment measures,
UK & Europe, 2020
Alexandra Christenson

Background
• COP27 (6-18 of November)
• Opportunity to use our accounts data in a new way
• Readily available and comparable data with EU14 countries
• We follow the same framework
• Using 2020 as our year of comparison –aligned data

Glossary
• EU14
• Residence basis
• Emission from UK residents and UK-registered business whether they are in the UK or overseas
• Absolute versus per head
• Greenhouse gas emissions;
• Greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide
(N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen
trifluoride (NF3).
• Fossil fuels
• Non-renewable energy sources such as coal, oil and gas
• Environmental taxes;
• A proven negative impact on the environment and whose base is a physical unit (e.g. a litre of petrol)

Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)
• Germany by far the largest emitter – almost double
of the UK emission
• Except Germany, UK emits more than each of the
other EU14 countries
• 2020 GHG estimates show the largest single-year
decrease compared to 2019 - likely explained by
COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent restrictions
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Germany United
Kingdom
France Italy Spain
Thousand
tonnes
Highest GHG contributors - UK compared to
EU14

Greenhouse gas emission per head
• UK emits around the same as Italy (who
ranks 10th in the EU14) when adjusting for
population size
• Luxembourg, Denmark and Ireland are the
three largest emitters per head
• In contrast to overall GHG emission, France,
Italy and Spain emit less on a per head basis
than most EU14 countries when adjusting for
population size
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
Luxembourg Denmark Ireland Netherlands Belgium United
Kingdom
Tonnes
per
capita
Top GHG contributors per head - UK compared to
EU14

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions
• Germany is the largest GHG and CO2
emitter in the EU14
• UK emits more than each of the other
EU14 countries except Germany
• Italy, France and Spain completes the
top five CO2 emitters
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Germany United Kingdom Italy France Spain
Thousand
tonnes
Top 5 CO2 contributors

CO2 per head
• Luxembourg largest emitter per head
similar to GHG emission
• UK emits less than Germany, but more
than Italy, France and Spain (who
unadjusted to population size are some
of the largest emitters)
0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 15.00
Luxembourg
Denmark
Netherlands
Ireland
Germany
United Kingdom
Tonnes per capita
2020 CO2 emission per capita

CO2 emission in the last decade
• CO2 emission has decreased in the
last decade both in absolute and
per head terms
• Dips from 2019-2020 are likely due
to the COVID-19 pandemic and
subsequent restrictions
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Tonnes
of
CO2
per
capita
Top CO2 emitters per capita, 2010-2020
Luxembourg Denmark Netherlands Ireland Germany United Kingdom

Fossil fuels extraction
• UK ranks high on fossil fuel extraction;
• In overall extraction, only Germany extracted
more than the UK in 2020
• Adjusting for population size, the UK ranks
third behind Germany and Greece
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Germany Greece United Kingdom Netherlands Denmark
Tonnes
of
CO2e
per
capita
Fossil fuel extraction in 2020 - UK and EU14
compared

Extraction per head in the last decade
• Germany is the largest emitter both in
absolute and per head terms
• Fossil fuel extraction has decreased
across the EU14 countries and in the
UK
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Per
capita
Top five countries for domestic extraction - UK and
EU14, 2020
Greece Netherlands Germany Denmark United Kingdom

Fossil fuels – imports per head
• Netherlands imported the most fossil fuels
per head in 2020
• The UK imported the least fossil fuel out of
all the countries compared to when
adjusting for population size
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Netherlands Belgium Luxembourg Denmark Finland United
Kingdom
Tonnes
per
capita
Top fossil fuel importers per capita, 2020

Environmental tax revenue
• Germany, Italy, France and the UK collect
substantially more in environmental taxes than
others in overall terms
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
£
GBP
(thousands)
Environmental taxes revenue in EU14 and the UK - 2020

Environmental tax revenue
• Environmental tax revenue as a proportion of
gross domestic product (GDP) was around 2.5%
in the UK, Italy, France and the Netherlands in
2020
• Fluctuated in the last 20 years;
• Decrease in Denmark
• Increase in Italy
• UK relatively stable
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
Percentage
share
of
GDP
Environmental tax revenue as a share of
GDP
UK Denmark Germany
France Italy Netherlands

Key findings - summary
• The UK is the second highest overall emitter of both GHGs and CO2
• CO2 emission has declined across the UK and EU14 in the last decade
• Adjusted for population size, Luxembourg was the largest GHG and CO2 emitter
• UK is one of the largest extractors of fossil fuel per capita, but ranks low on importing
fossil fuel adjusted for population size
• UK’s environmental tax revenue is one of the highest compared to the EU14; both
absolute and as a percentage of GDP

International comparison
Article due out on the 23rd of November 2022
Looking at energy and comparing the accounts from around the
world
Contact us on environment.accounts@ons.gov.uk for more
information

Defining and measuring
Green Jobs
Gemma Thomas

Overview
ONS awarded funding by HM Treasury under the Economic Data Innovation
Fund (EDIF) to define and measure green jobs.
Expected outcomes of the project:
2022
• A user engagement exercise and an analysis of the responses
2023
• a clear definition or definitions of green jobs
• experimental statistics measuring green jobs, using these definitions
• initial analytical outputs
• a work programme for embedding statistics into standard output cycles

Why green jobs?
• Lots of interest, with growing stakeholder demand and engagement
• Measurement challenges including:
oa lack of one single definition and data availability
 leads to a mix of definitions and measures being operationalised
• Estimates can vary significantly depending on the definition and method:
• 2019,ONS, Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy, 202,800 FTE
• 2019, LSE, “Are Green Jobs Good?” (2021), 17% of employment “directly
green” (approx. 5.6 million) .

Engagement exercise
Ran between Thursday 11 August and Thursday 6 October, asking:
• Current and/or expected uses of the data
• Preferred choice of three existing definitions (EGSS, ILO and GJ Taskforce)
• Ranking three approaches (industry, occupation or firm based) to framing
• Ranking further breakdowns of estimates (demographic, geographic and
quality)
• Other environmental topics or themes of interest

Next Steps
• Produce a summary of responses and publish via our ONS Citizen
Space website by the end of the year (29 November).
• Further engagement with stakeholders to refine definitions and scope
• Based on the above we also aim to draft green jobs definition / definitions
by early 2023
• Develop experimental statistics based on the definition(s)
• Continue to develop existing statistics and undertake further analysis

Beyond Green Jobs
• Acknowledging and understanding the green economy
• While the focus is on green jobs, some of the analysis will be useful for
measuring the green economy more broadly.
• We will draw on any emerging conclusions and discuss future workplans
with stakeholders.

Contact
Details on the project and work so far can be found in our September
release “Green jobs” update, current and upcoming work plan
Please contact environment.accounts@ons.gov.uk if you have comments or
wish to discuss further

Questions can be submitted via the slido app using code #40966.
You can also access slido via the link in the chat box.
Q&A

Closing remarks
Sonia Carrera
Interim Deputy Director
Economic and Microdata Insights

Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
14 November 2022 – The impacts of energy price rises on businesses
15 November 2022 – Labour Market Theme Day
16 November 2022 – Prices Theme Day (Inflation and the cost of living for household groups:
October 2022)
21 November 2022 – Equality across different areas of life in the UK: 2010 to 2020
1 December 2022 – Disaggregating UK annual subnational gross value added (GVA) to lower
levels of geography, 1998 to 2020
5 December 2022 – Self-reported long COVID and labour market outcomes
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website

Dates for your diary
16 November 2022 – ONS UK Climate Change Statistics Portal
17 November 2022 – Economic Data Science Seminar Series – Daniel Arribas-Bel
17 November 2022 – ESCoE Webinar – The New Wave: Technology Diffusion in the UK during the 2010’s
21 November 2022 – Regional Economic Forum – Darlington
1 December 2022 – ESCoE Webinar – Efficient Industrial Policy for Innovation: Standing on the Shoulders of
Hidden Giants
7 December 2022 – Regional Economic Forum – Wales
15 December 2022 – ESCoE Webinar – Capitalizing Data: A Case Study of Individual Credit Files
Further details on the above event and any upcoming events will be published at
ons.gov.uk/economicevents

Consultation
Review of the Measures of National Well-being – Closes 25 November 2022
We are reviewing the measures of national well-being.
In August, we restarted regular updates of the Measures of National Well-being dashboard, which
measures the quality of life in the UK. This publication marked over 10 years since its creation and
developments to date, including it being published alongside GDP and climate change insights for the first
time. This milestone gives us an opportunity to reflect on the original 34,000 responses which fed into the
development of the national well-being dashboard, and the changes to society since the dashboard’s
inception.
As part of the review, we are launching a consultation to review the measures included in the dashboard and
how we communicate these insights.
Please give us your views and take part in the survey.

Measuring non-market activity – challenges and opportunities
conference in an international context
Call for Papers: Deadline Friday 9 December, 2022
The Office for National Statistics will hold a ‘Measuring non-market activity - challenges and opportunities’
conference on 14 and 15 February 2023 at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
(BEIS), London.
We welcome papers on all aspects of the measurement of non-market output. We are particularly interested
in submissions related to the following areas:
 Innovative approaches to the measurement of collective and individual services
 Quality adjustments for non-market measures
 International comparisons
To submit a full paper or an extended abstract (around 800 words), please email
nonmarketoutputconference@ons.gov.uk and attach your submission.

ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement 2023
The Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) will hold its annual conference, organised in partnership with the UK
Office for National Statistics (ONS), on 17-19 May 2023 at King’s Business School, King’s College London.
We invite submissions of papers on all aspects of the measurement and use of economic statistics. We are particularly
interested in submissions related to the areas:
• Inclusive Wealth Measures and Looking Beyond GDP;
• National Accounts (including measurement issues regarding Prices, International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment);
• Net-Zero, Climate Change and the Environment;
• Subnational Statistics;
• Productivity and Innovation;
• Labour Markets, Households and Inequality.
For details on how to submit a full paper, extended abstract or a proposal for a special session please visit the ESCoE website.
Call for Papers: Deadline 16 January 2023

Thank you for attending the
Economic Forum
You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so
via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk

ONS Economic Forum - 14 November 2022

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ONS Economic Forum - 14 November 2022