Antisemitism Awareness Act: pénaliser la critique de l'Etat d'Israël
Economic Forum in Belfast
1. ONS Economic Forum
Email: ONS.economic.forum@ons.gov.uk
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
WIFI code for Parliament Building: NIAssembly
1
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016
2. ONS Economic Forum – September 2016
09.45 Introduction & Welcome
10.00 An overview of the UK Economic
Situation
10.40 Economic Statistics for Northern Ireland
11.10 Refreshment Break
11.50 Productivity and Labour Market
12.30 Close
2
Agenda
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016
6. GDP Current Price (£m): previously published v Blue Book 2016
Levels revised up, average per year:
1997-2009 +£49.6bn (4.3%), 2010-2014 +£9.1bn (0.6%), 2015 +£4.9bn (0.3%)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates
6
7. Real GDP (%): previously published v Blue Book 2016
1998 to 2015: average growth unrevised at +2.0%
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revision Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final Blue Book 2016 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
8. Real GDP, Seas. Adj. (%): previously published v Blue Book 2016
Q2 1997 to Q1 2016: average quarterly growth rate unrevised at +0.5%
average quarterly revision -0.01 percentage points, absolute revision 0.10 percentage points
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1997Q2 1998Q2 1999Q2 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2 2006Q2 2007Q2 2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q22015 Q2
Revision Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final 2016 Chained Volume Measure Estimates8
9. GDP economic downturn and
recovery
• 2008/09 downturn: same length and similar depth, was -6.1%, now -6.3%
• strength of recovery:
• GDP pre-downturn peak re-attained in Q3 2013, one quarter later
• in Q1 2016: GDP 7.0% above pre-downturn peak, was 7.2%
• in Q1 2016: GDP per capita 0.9% above pre-downturn peak, was 1.1%
9
10. Balance of Payments: Current Account (£m): previously published
v Pink Book 2016
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revision Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec) 2015 Current Price Estimates 10
11. Balance of Payments: Net International Investment Position (£m):
previously published v Pink Book 2016
-500000
-400000
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revision Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec) 2015 Current Price Estimates
11
12. Household and NPISH saving ratio (%): previously published v Blue
Book 2016
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revision Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec) 2015 Current Price Estimates 12
14. UK Employment / Unemployment Rate
(aged 16-64,%)
14
Employment rate 74.5% for May – July 2016
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
2007
JUN
2008
JUN
2009
JUN
2010
JUN
2011
JUN
2012
JUN
2013
JUN
2014
JUN
2015
JUN
2016
JUN
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2007
JUN
2008
JUN
2009
JUN
2010
JUN
2011
JUN
2012
JUN
2013
JUN
2014
JUN
2015
JUN
2016
JUN
Unemployment rate 4.9% for May – July 2016
15. 15
771,000 people claiming unemployment related benefits in August 2016
UK Total Claimant Count SA
thousands of people, seasonally adjusted
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2007 JUN 2008 JUN 2009 JUN 2010 JUN 2011 JUN 2012 JUN 2013 JUN 2014 JUN 2015 JUN 2016 JUN
18. 18
UK PPI
(12 Month % Change)
Input PPI August 2016 year-on-year growth
7.6%, compared with a rise of 4.1% in the year
to July 2016
Output PPI August 2016 year-on-year
growth 0.8%, compared with a rise of 0.3% in
the year to July 2016
19. Index of Production & Index of Manufacturing
chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted
19
Index of Production month-on-month growth +0.1%
Index of Manufacturing month-on-month growth -0.9%
Index 2013=100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2007JAN 2008JAN 2009JAN 2010JAN 2011JAN 2012JAN 2013JAN 2014JAN 2015JAN 2016JAN
Index of Production Index of Manufacturing
20. Index of Construction
chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted
20
Index of Construction month-on-month growth flat
Index 2013=100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan
21. Construction - new orders
volume of new orders (£m), constant prices, seasonally adjusted
21
Increased by 8.6% compared with Quarter 1 2016
Increased by 7.5% compared with Quarter 2 2015
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Q1
2008
Q3
2008
Q1
2009
Q3
2009
Q1
2010
Q3
2010
Q1
2011
Q3
2011
Q1
2012
Q3
2012
Q1
2013
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q3
2014
Q1
2015
Q3
2015
Q1
2016
Housing Other work All new work
22. 22
Retail sales August month-on-month fall of 0.2%
Retail sales July month-on-month increase of 1.9%
2013=100
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2013 Oct 2014 Apr 2014 Oct 2015 Apr 2015 Oct 2016 Apr
Retail Sales Index
Chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted
23. Imports and Exports
£m, seasonally adjusted
23
Increase in exports and a fall in imports
35 000
37 000
39 000
41 000
43 000
45 000
47 000
49 000
51 000
2014
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Exports Imports
24. Trade Balance
£m, seasonally adjusted
24
Trade balance improved
-6 000
-5 000
-4 000
-3 000
-2 000
-1 000
2014
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
26. Forthcoming publications to watch out
for…
26
Date Release Period
30th September Index of Services July 2016
27th October GDP Preliminary Estimate Quarter 3 2016
25th November Business Investment Preliminary Release Quarter 3 2016
23rd December Quarterly National Accounts Quarter 3 2016
Balance of Payments Quarter 3 2016
Consumer Trends Quarter 3 2016
27. Blue Book 2017 – Main developments
• Corporate bonds interest payments
• Changes to the source data for Actual rental
• Enhancements to survey data
• Wider product breakdown in acquisitions and disposals of Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)
• Enhanced detail for Financial corporations
• New data on number of drug users to inform estimates of illegal activities
• New survey sources for education in Trade in services
• More detailed sector breakdown
• Separation of Households and Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH)
• More detailed presentation of the Financial corporation section
• Improvements to prices and volume methods after the last base year
27
28. Economic Statistics for Northern
Ireland
Richard Prothero (ONS)
James Gillan (NISRA)
28
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016
29. Contents
• Presentation of ONS/NISRA data by Richard Prothero
– Economic Output (GVA)
– Household Incomes
– Wellbeing
– Industrial Structure
– Qualifications
– Trade
• Presentation of additional NISRA data by James Gillan
– Economic Output.
– Labour Market
• Future plans for ONS and NISRA by James Gillan
30. Producing NI economic statistics
• ONS meets inter/national and sub-national obligations
– Access to large across-UK data sources
• NISRA meets additional devolved needs
– Statutory authority to collect business data
• Relationship Governed by:-
– UK Statistics and Registration Services Act (2007)
– UK Concordat on Statistics “The administrations will work
together to ensure the provision of coherent, reliable,
consistent and timely UK-wide statistics”
31. Northern Ireland has performed less well than the
UK since 2008
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Northern Ireland
Yorkshire and…
North East
North West
Scotland
East of England
West Midlands
Wales
South West
East Midlands
South East
London
Increase in nominal GVA
GVA Growth before and since
Economic Downturn
2008-
2014
2002-
2008
The 2008-2014 data
shows how countries
and English regions
fared through the
downturn and
subsequent recovery.
The 2002-2008 data
shows how the regions
fared in a similar
period prior to the
downturn.
Note: due to the
economic downturn,
annual output in most
countries and regions
reached a temporary
peak in 2008 before
declining in 2009.
Source: ONS
32. GVA growth in Northern Ireland by area
Source: ONS
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Belfast Outer Belfast East of
Northern
Ireland
North of
Northern
Ireland
West and South
of Northern
Ireland
Average annual growth in
Nominal Gross Value Added (GVA)
2002-2008
2008-2014
33. GVA per head
50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190
Wales
North East
Northern Ireland
Yorkshire and The Humber
West Midlands
East Midlands
North West
South West
East of England
Scotland
South East
London
UK=100
Nominal GVA per head, 2014
GVA per head GVA per hour workedSource: ONS
34. Household Income
In Northern Ireland,
relative performance in
GDHI is similar to
relative performance in
GVA per hour worked.
Source: ONS
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Northern Ireland
North East
Wales
Yorkshire and The Humber
West Midlands
North West
East Midlands
Scotland
South West
East of England
South East
London
UK=100
Gross Disposable Household Incomes per head, 2014
35. GDHI per head by area 1997-2014
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
UK=100
Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) per head, 1997-2014
N Ireland
Outer Belfast
East of Northern Ireland
Belfast
North of Northern Ireland
West and South of Northern
Ireland
Source: ONS
36. Personal Wellbeing
Source: ONS
How Satisfied are you with your life nowadays?
Where 0 is 'not at all satisfied' and 10 is 'completely satisfied'.
Proportion of residents in each Threshold
Average (Mean)
rating
Low Medium High Very High
0-4 5-6 7-8 9-10
UK 4.6 14.2 52.1 29.2 7.65
Northern Ireland 4.4 12.8 44.0 38.7 7.85
England 4.6 14.3 52.4 28.8 7.64
Wales 5.2 14.4 50.7 29.7 7.63
Scotland 4.4 13.9 52.1 29.6 7.68
37. Personal Wellbeing
• Analysis on UK data shows health, employment status and
relationship status as important factors related to personal
well-being - but this can’t explain Northern Ireland result.
• Other potential factors
– Country differences - Globally evidence of differences in
responses to wellbeing surveys across countries.
– Expectations – The improved situation post-1998 may be
reflected in ongoing positive expectations.
– High social capital - ONS social capital report showed that within
UK people living in Northern Ireland reported the highest levels
for feelings of belonging to their neighbourhood (73%), that
people around them were willing to help others (80%) and that
the people in their neighbourhood can be trusted (73%).
38. Population Growth
Since 2008,
Northern Ireland
has seen growth
in both its working
age population
and total
population.
By contrast,
Wales and North-
East England had
a decline in
working age
population
between 2008-
2015.
Source: ONS
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
North East
Wales
North West
Scotland
Yorkshire and The Humber
Northern Ireland
West Midlands
South West
East Midlands
South East
East
London
Population Growth 2008-2015
all ages 16-64 yrs
39. Industrial Specialisations
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Mining and quarrying
Financial and insurance activities
Information and communication
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Real estate activities
Electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply
Transportation and storage
Accommodation and food service activities
Construction
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Other service activities
Education
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles
Human health and social work activities
Manufacturing
Water supply; sewerage and waste management
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Public administration and defence; compulsory social…
Location Quotients, 2014 (based on GVA data)
relative to UK excluding London relative to UKSource: ONS
40. Qualifications
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
North East
Northern Ireland
West Midlands
Yorkshire and The Humber
North West
East Midlands
East
Wales
South West
South East
Scotland
London
% share of 16-64 year olds
Highest Level of Qualifications, 2015
Level 4
(degree level)
None
Source: ONS
UK =
35.8% Level 4,
9.0% None
41. Exports of Goods
Expressing
exports as a
share of GVA
gives a guide
as to relative
export
intensity.
Note,
however, this
is not the
same as
saying the
exports were
directly
responsible
for the share
of GVA
shown.
Source: HMRC
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Value of Goods Exports, 2015
(expressed as a percentage of GVA)
42. Exports of Goods by Industry
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Other commodities nes
Animal and Vegetable Oils
Mineral Fuels
Crude Materials
Beverages and Tobacco
Manufactured Goods
Miscellaneous Manufactures
Food and Live Animals
Chemicals
Machinery and Transport
Share of Goods Exports by Industry, NI and UK, 2015.
NI UK
Source: HMRC
43. Exports of Services
Expressing
exports as a
share of GVA
gives a guide
as to relative
export
intensity.
Note,
however, this
is not the
same as
saying the
exports were
directly
responsible
for the share
of GVA
shown.
Source: ONS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Value of Services Exports, 2014
(expressed as a percentage of GVA)
46. Comparison of NI Composite Economic Index (NICEI)
with UK, Scotland & ROI GDP (Q1 2016)
(2012=100)
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index(2012=100)
NI Composite Economic Index UK GDP Scotland GDP ROI GDP
ROI growth from Q4 2014 to Q1 2015 = 20.3%
Note that the NICEI is not
directly equivalent to GDP
46
Source: NI Composite Economic Index, ONS Quarterly National Accounts,
Scottish Government Quarterly National Accounts , CSO Ireland Quarterly
National Accounts
47. Northern Ireland (NI) experienced the sharpest fall and
slowest recovery compared to Scotland & the UK as a whole
(2012 = 100)
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index(2012=100)
Comparison of NICEI with UK, Scotland GDP (to Q1 2016)
NI Composite Economic Index UK GDP Scotland GDP
NI peak to
trough = -10.6%
Scotland peak to
trough = -4.0%
UK peak to
trough = -6.3%
47
Source: NI Composite Economic Index, ONS Quarterly
National Accounts, Scottish Government Quarterly National
Accounts
49. 110.4
99.2
112.6
116.1
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index(2002=100)
Public
Private
In June 2016, the NI public sector made
up 28% of all employee jobs and the
Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI)
Index of Northern Ireland public and private sector
employee jobs
51. NI Sectoral change in employee jobs – downturn (2008-2012)
51
Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI)
-25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Health activities
Office administrative activities
Computer programming, consultancy & related activities
Activities of head offices
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products
Crop and animal production, hunting & related activities
Activities auxiliary to financial services & insurance
Sports activities,amusement & recreation
Waste collection activities
Repair & installation of machinery & equipment
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles
Civil engineering
Education
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products
Social work activities without accommodation
Employment activities
Public administration & defence
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles & motorcycles
Construction of buildings
Specialised construction activities
Change 2008-2012
52. NI Sectoral change in employee jobs – recovery (2012-2016)
52
Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI)
-25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Public administration & defence
Financial activities excl. Insurance/pension funding
Manufacture of electrical equipment
Manufacture of beverages & tobacco products
Specialised construction activities
Postal and courier activities
Scientific research & development
Civil engineering
Other manufacturing
Manufacture of rubber & plastic products
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles
Manufacture of food products
Activities of head offices
Legal and accounting activities
Computer programming & consultancy activities
Food & beverage service activities
Social work activities without accommodation
Office administrative activities
Employment activities
Health activities
Change 2012-2016
53. Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI)
NI Sectoral change in employee jobs (2002-2016)
-25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Public administration and defence
Manufacture of wearing apparel
Manufacture of textiles
Construction of buildings
Specialised construction activities
Manufacture of computer products
Postal and courier activities
Manufacture of rubber & plastic products
Manufacture of non-metallic mineral products
Manufacture of electrical equipment
Legal and accounting activities
Services to buildings & landscape activities
Real estate activities
Food & beverage service activities
Social work activities without accommodation
Computer programming & consultancy activities
Employment activities
Office administrative activities
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles
Health activities
Change 2002-2016
54. 109.1
113.1
110.5
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index(2002=100)
Unadjusted at June each year
Index of NI full-time and part-time employee jobs
NI Full-Time
NI Part-Time
NI Total Jobs
In June 2016, NI full-time jobs made up 66%
of total jobs and part-time jobs made up
34% of total jobs.
Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI)
62. Programme for Government Framework –
Indicators & Measures
62
Indicator Measure
LabourMarket
17. Reduce economic inactivity Economic inactivity rate excluding students
32. Increase economic opportunities for our most
deprived communities
The employment rate of 16-64 year olds by deprivation
quintile
33. Reduce underemployment
% of people working part time who would like to work more
hours
14. Improve the skills profile of the population
The proportion of the workforce in employment with
qualifications at level 1 and above, level 2 and above, level 3
and above, and level 4 and above
16. Increase the proportion of people in work Seasonally adjusted employment rate (16-64)
18. Increase the proportion of people working in
good jobs
A Good Jobs Index
34. Improve regional balance of economic
prosperity through increased employment
Employment rate by geographic area
Economy
20. Increase the size of the economy
Private Sector NICEI (Northern Ireland Composite Economic
Index)
21. Increase the competitiveness of the economy External sales
22. Increase innovation in our economy Regional innovation ranking
42. Increase quality of life for people with disabilities Average life satisfaction score of people with disabilities
63. Expenditure per capita on Final
Demand components (2012)
63
15,278
16,993
16,035
6,660
5,430
5,893
2,072
4,247
4,119
NI
UK
Scotland
Household Final
Consumption Expenditure
Government Final
Consumption Expenditure
Gross Capital
Formation
Source: NISRA, ONS & Scottish Government
Supply-Use Tables
65. NISRA releases & future plans
• Upcoming NISRA releases :-
– Labour Market bulletin (monthly)
– NI Composite Economic Index - Q2 2016 (Oct)
– Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2016 (Oct)
– Annual Business Inquiry / Exports 2015 (Dec)
• Future NISRA plans
– Digital Economy Bill / use of new sources
– Data Science
65
66. ONS releases & future plans
• Upcoming ONS releases :-
– Labour Market bulletin (monthly)
– Regional GVA (Dec)
– Regional / Sub-regional Productivity (Jan)
• Future ONS plans
– Household Final Consumption Expenditure
– Short Term Indicators for English Regions
– Flexible Geographies
66
67. ONS Economic Forum
Email: ONS.economic.forum@ons.gov.uk
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
WIFI code for Parliament Building: NIAssembly
67
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016
68. The labour market and productivity
Dr Philip Wales
Head of Productivity
68
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016
69. Labour market and productivity
• Headline labour market quantities data
• Key differences of the NI labour market
• Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets
• Productivity
69
70. The labour market in Northern Ireland
70
43.0%
13.8%
3.5%
39.4%
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
Thousands
Full time Employment Part time Employment Unemployed Inactive
Labour market status of the NI population – all 16+
Source: Labour Force Survey
74. Labour market and productivity
Relative to the UK, Northern Ireland’s labour market currently has a:
• A higher rate of inactivity
• A lower employment rate
• Similar unemployment rates
These are broadly consistent with historical trends: over the lifetime of
the LFS, NI’s employment and inactivity rates have been persistently 4
percentage points weaker than in the UK as a whole.
74
75. Labour market and productivity
• Headline labour market quantities data
• Key differences of the NI labour market
– 1. Inactivity
– 2. Employment
• Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets
• Productivity
75
76. Key features of NI labour market
76
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
United Kingdom Northern Ireland%
Inactivity – Northern Ireland & the UK
Source: Labour Force Survey
Note: Headline inactivity rate (among those aged 16-64)
77. Key features of NI labour market
77
Inactivity – by age group (2006 Q2)
Source: Labour Force Survey
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
United Kingdom Northern Ireland%
Rolling five year age groups
78. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
United Kingdom Northern Ireland%
Key features of NI labour market
78
Inactivity – by age group (2016 Q2)
Source: Labour Force Survey
Rolling five year age groups
79. Key features of NI labour market
79
Contributions to inactivity by Reason, Northern Ireland – by age group (2016 Q2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63
Looking after the family LT sick/disabled Other Total
Rolling five year age groups
%
Source: Labour Force Survey,
Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons
80. Key features of NI labour market
80
Inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69
Percentage points
Total
Rolling five year age groupsSource: Labour Force Survey,
Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons
81. Key features of NI labour market
81
Contributions to inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69
Percentage points
Other Total
Rolling five year age groupsSource: Labour Force Survey,
Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons
82. Key features of NI labour market
82
Contributions to inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69
Percentage points
Long-term sick as disabled (would not like work)
Other
Total
Rolling five year age groupsSource: Labour Force Survey,
Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons
83. Key features of NI labour market
83
Contributions to inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69
Percentage points
Looking after the family (would not like work)
Long-term sick as disabled (would not like work)
Other
Total
Rolling five year age groupsSource: Labour Force Survey,
Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons
84. Labour market and productivity
• Headline labour market quantities data
• Key differences of the NI labour market
– 1. Inactivity
– 2. Employment
• Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets
• Productivity
84
86. Key features of NI labour market
86
Employment rate – by age (year to 2016 Q2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
United Kingdom Northern Ireland% Employed
Source: Labour Force Survey
Rolling five year age groups
87. Key features of NI labour market
87
Full time share of employment
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
Rest of the UK Northern Ireland% Full-time
Source: Labour Force Survey
88. Key features of NI labour market
88
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Rest of the UK Northern Ireland% Part-time
Source: Labour Force Survey
Part time share of employment
89. Labour market and productivity
• Headline labour market quantities data
• Key differences of the NI labour market
• Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets
• Productivity
89
90. Earnings
90
Median earnings by region: 2005, 2010, 2015, UK=100
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
London
South East
Scotland
East
North East
North West
South West
West Midlands
Yorkshire and The…
Northern Ireland
Wales
East Midlands
2015
2010
2005
UK
Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
91. Earnings
91
Distribution of earnings: 1997
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Density, %
Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £
Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
113. Labour market and productivity
• Headline labour market quantities data
• Key differences of the NI labour market
• Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets
• Productivity
113
114. Productivity
114
Regional Productivity – nominal terms
75 80 85 90 95 100
West and South of Northern
Ireland
North of Northern Ireland
East of Northern Ireland
Outer Belfast
Belfast
Northern Ireland
GVA per job filled, 2014, UK=100 GVA per job filled, 2014, UK=100
Source: ONS sub-regional productivity estimates
0 50 100 150
Wales
North East
Northern Ireland
Yorkshire and The Humber
West Midlands
East Midlands
North West
South West
Scotland
East of England
South East
London
115. Productivity
115
Regional Productivity – distribution of firm-level labour productivity
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Density
Productivity (£ thousands per worker)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Density
Productivity (£ thousands per worker)
2008
2011
2014
Northern Ireland Great Britain
Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey
Note: Includes Private, non-financial firms.
116. Productivity
116
Regional Productivity – composition of the top 10% of firms by productivity
48.3% 46.3% 50.5%
13.9% 14.6%
16.6%
12.8% 13.2%
11.8%
17.2% 18.7%
15.9%
7.7% 7.2% 5.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2011 2014
29.0%
35.0% 32.1%
7.4%
5.9% 8.1%
27.7%
25.4% 25.6%
28.1% 21.5% 24.8%
7.8%
12.1% 9.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2011 2014
Northern Ireland Great Britain
Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey
Note: Includes Private, non-financial firms.
117. Productivity
117
Regional Productivity – intra-industry distribution of productivity
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Productivity, £ thousands
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
0 50 100 150 200
Productivity, £ thousands
Northern Ireland Great Britain
Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey, ONS analysis
Note: Includes Private, non-financial firms.
Manufacturing
Construction
Whole. & retail of mot. vehicles
Accomm & food services
Transport & storage
Info & comms
Real estate
Prof., Sci., & Tech. activities
Admin & support activities
118. Labour market and productivity
• UK labour market is recovering strongly from the economic downturn: labour
market in NI appears to have a similar headline unemployment experience, but
has been weaker in terms of its inactivity and employment rate performance
• The UK’s income distribution has changed markedly over the last ten years, with a
growing concentration of workers at or around the national minimum wage. This is
broadly consistent with the experience in Northern Ireland – although the
prevalence of low pay is more marked here than in the UK as a whole
• The average level of nominal productivity in Northern Ireland is notably lower than
in the UK average. However, there are a range of firm-level performances both
within and between industries in NI, mirroring the range for the rest of GB.
118
120. ONS Economic Forum
Email: ONS.economic.forum@ons.gov.uk
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy
WIFI code for Parliament Building: NIAssembly
120
ONS Economic Forum
21 September 2016
122. Key features of NI labour market
122
Skills (year to 2008 Q2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Degree or
equivalent
Higher
education
A-level or
equivalent
GCSE A*-C Other
qualification
No
qualification
Don't Know
Northern Ireland Rest of the UK
Educational level
% with given educational level
Source: Labour Force Survey
123. Key features of NI labour market
123
Skills (year to 2016 Q2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Degree or
equivalent
Higher
education
A-level or
equivalent
GCSE A*-C Other
qualification
No
qualification
Don't Know
Northern Ireland Rest of the UK
Educational level
% with given educational level
Source: Labour Force Survey
124. Key features of NI labour market
124
Industrial mix (year to 2008 Q2)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Agriculture
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity and gas
Water supply
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation and storage
Accommodation and food
Information and communication
Financial services
Real estate activities
Professional services
Support admin
Public admin
Education
Health
Arts and entertainment
Other service activities
Northern Ireland Rest of the UK
Industry (main job)
% in given industry
125. Key features of NI labour market
125
Industrial mix (year to 2016 Q2)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Agriculture
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity and gas
Water supply
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation and storage
Accommodation and food
Information and communication
Financial services
Real estate activities
Professional services
Support admin
Public admin
Education
Health
Arts and entertainment
Other service activities
Northern Ireland Rest of the UK
Industry (main job)
% in given industry
127. Key features of NI labour market
127
Prevalence of self-employment
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Rest of the UK Northern Ireland%Self-employed
128. Levels of inactivity by age
128
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63
Looking after the family
LT sick/disabled
Other
Total
Average of rolling five year age groups