4. Types of Buying Systems
Staple Merchandise
Predictable Demand
History of Past Sales
Relatively Accurate Forecasts
Fashion Merchandise
Unpredictable Demand
Limited Sales History
Difficult to Forecast Sales
5. Staple Merchandise Buying System
Forecast
SKU Sales
Order
Merchandise
Monitor
Sales and
Inventory
Compare
Inventory to
Basic Stock
List
6. Considerations in Determining
How Much to Order
• Basic Stock Plan
• Present Inventory
• Merchandise on
Order
• Sales Forecast
– Rate of Sales of SKU
(Velocity)
– Seasonality
10. Cycle and Buffer Stock
Units
Available
Weeks
150 -
100 -
50 -
0 -
1 2 3 4
Order 96
Cycle
Stock
Buffer
Stock
11. Buffer Stock
We need it so we won’t loose sales, complementary sales, and customers
Buffer stock is dependent on:
-Forecast interval variance (Forecast interval = lead
time + review time)
-Variation in Demand (actual demand - forecasted
demand)
-Time to Get Product from Supplier
-Time to Get Product from Distribution
Center
- Product availability requested of IM systems
12. Forecasting Demand
Forecasting -- extrapolating the
past into future using
statistical and mathematical
methods
Objectives:
– Ignore random
fluctuations in demand
– But be responsive to
real change
13. Forecasting Sales
• Tradeoff Recent Sales Against Past History of Sales
– Recognize Recent Trends, But Don’t Over Weight Recent Experience
• Exponential Smoothing
Old = Old + ά x (Recent – Old) Forecast
Forecast Demand Forecast
84 = 96 + .5 x (72 – 96)
• ά ranges for 0 to 1
– Higher ά Weighs Recent Sales More
14. Order Point
• Order point = the point at which inventory
available should not go below or else we
will run out of stock before the next order
arrives.
• Assume Lead time = 0, Order point = 0
• Assume Lead time = 3 weeks, review time =
1 week, demand = 100 units per week
• Order point = demand (lead time + review
time) + buffer stock
• Order point = 100 (3+1) = 400
15. Order Point continued
• Assume Buffer stock = 50 units, then
• Order point = 100 (3+1) + 50 = 450
• We will order something when order point
gets below 450 units.
16. Calculating the Order Point
Order Point = (Demand/Day) x (Lead Time
+Review Time) + Backup Stock
167 units = (7 units x (14 + 7 days) + 20 units
So Buyer Places Order When Inventory in Stock
Drops Below 167 units
17. Merchandise Budget Plan
• Plan for the financial aspects of a
merchandise category
• Specifies how much money can be spent each
month to achieve the sales, margin, inventory
turnover, and GMROI objectives.
• Not a complete buying plan--doesn’t indicate
what specific SKUs to buy or in what
quantities.
19. Steps in Preparing Plan
• Forecast Six Month Sales for Category
• Breakdown Total Sales Forecast into Forecast for each Month
(lines 1, 2)
• Plan Reductions for Each Month (lines 3, 4)
• Determine Beginning of the Month (BOM) Stock to Sales
Ratio (line 5)
• Calculate BOM Inventory (line 6)
• Calculate EOM Inventory (line 7)
• Calculate Monthly Additions to Stock (line 8)
20. Open to Buy
• Monitors Merchandise Flow
• Determines How Much Was Spent and
How Much is Left to Spend
22. Open-to-buy for Past Periods
Projected EOM stock = actual EOM stock
Open-to-buy = 0
There is no point in buying merchandise for a
month that is already over.
23. Open-to-Buy for
Current Period (I)
• Projected EOM stock =
• Actual BOM stock
• + Actual monthly additions to stock (what
was
actually received)
• + Actual on order (what is on order for the
month)
• - Plan monthly sales
24. Open-to-Buy for
Current Period (II)
• Open-to-buy =
• Planned EOM stock (from merchandise
budget plan)
– Projected EOM stock (based on what is really
happening)
25. Allocating
Merchandise to Stores
Percentage of total sales 1 1.5 2.5 3.5 4 6 8 12
Percentage of total inventory 1.5 2 3 4 4 4 6 10
Fewer Sales, More Sales,
More Inventory Less Inventory
26. Breakdown by Store of
Traditional $35 Denim Jeans in Light Blue
Source: Banner Distributing Company, Denver, Colorado; used with permission.
(1)
TYPE OF
STORE
(2)
NUMBER OF
STORES
A
B
C
Total sales $150,000
4
3
8
10.0%
6.7
5.0
$15,000
10,000
7,500
60,000
30,000
60,000
429
286
214
(3)
% OF TOTAL
SALES, EACH
STORE
(4)
SALES PER
STORE (TOTAL
SALES X COL. 3)
(5)
SALES PER
STORE TYPE
(COL. 2 X COL. 4)
(6)
UNIT SALES
PER STORE
(COL. 4/$35)
27. ABC Analysis
Rank - orders merchandise by some
performance measure determine which
items:
– should never be out of stock.
– should be allowed to be out of stock
occasionally.
– should be deleted from the stock selection.
29. ABC Analysis Rank Merchandise
By Performance Measures
Contribution Margin
Sales Dollars
Sales in Units
Gross Margin
GMROI
Use more than one criteria
30. ABC Analysis for Dress Shirts
Percentage
of
Sales
Dollars
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percentage of Items
No Sales
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
C
10%
B
20%
A
70%
A B C D
5% 10% 65% 20%
Sales
31. Sell-through Analysis for Blouses
Week 1 Week 2
Stock Actual-to-Plan Actual-to-Plan
Number Description Plan Actual Percent. Plan Actual Percent.
1011 -Sm White silk V-neck 20 15 -25 20 10 -50
1011 -Med White Silk V-neck 30 25 -16.6 30 20 -33
1011 -Lg White Silk V-neck 20 16 -20 20 16 -20
1012 -Sm Blue Silk V-neck 25 26 4 25 27 8
1012 -Med Blue Silk V-neck 35 45 29 35 40 14
1012 -Lg Blue Silk V-neck 25 25 0 25 30 20
32. Ij *
i 1
n
P
i j = Sum of the expression
I j
= Importance weight assigned
to the ith dimension
P i
= Performance evaluation for
jth brand alternative on the
jth issue
1 = Not important
10 = Very important
Evaluating a Vendor:
A Weighted Average Approach
33. Evaluating a Vendor:
A Weighted Average Approach
Performance Evaluation of Individual
Brands Across Issues
Importance
Evaluation Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D
Issues of Issues (I) (Pa) (Pb) (Pc) (Pd)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Vendor reputation 9 5 9 4 8
Service 8 6 6 4 6
Meets delivery dates 6 5 7 4 4
Merchandise quality 5 5 4 6 5
Markup opportunity 5 5 4 4 5
Country of origin 6 5 3 3 8
Product fashionability 7 6 6 3 8
Selling history 3 5 5 5 5
Promotional assistance 4 5 3 4 7
Overall evaluation = 290 298 212 341
Ij *
i
n
P
1
ij
34. Retail Inventory Method (RIM)
Two Objectives:
– To maintain a perpetual or book inventory of
retail dollar amounts.
– To maintain records that make it possible to
determine the cost value of the inventory at any
time without taking a physical inventory.
35. Advantages of RIM
• The retailer doesn't have to “cost” each time.
• Follows the accepted accounting practice of
valuing assets at cost or market, whichever is
lower.
36. Advantages of RIM cont’d
• Amounts and percentages of initial markups,
additional markups, markdowns, and shrinkage
can be compared with historical records or
industry norms.
• Useful for determining shrinkage.
• Can be used in an insurance claim case of a loss.
37. Disadvantages of RIM
• System that uses average markup.
• Record keeping process involved is
burdensome.
38. Steps in RIM
Calculate Total Merchandise Handled at Cost
and Retail
Calculate Retail Reductions
Calculate Cumulative Markup and Cost Multiplier
Determine Book Inventory at Cost and Retail
39. Retail Inventory Method
Cumulative Markon =(total retail - total cost) / total retail:
($290,000 - $160,000) / $290,000 = 44.8%
The Cost Multiplier = cumulative markon
(100% - cumulative markon%) = 55.2%
Ending book = total goods handled at retail - total
inventory at retail reductions: $290,000 - $208,000 = $82,000
Ending book = ending book inventory at retail x cost
inventory at cost multiplier: $82,000 x 55.2% = 45,264
40. Retail Inventory Method
Example
Total Goods Handled Cost Retail
Beginning inventory $ 60,000 $ 84,000
Purchases 50,000 70,000
- Return to vendor (11,000) (15,400)
Net Purchases 39,000 54,600
Additional markups 4,000
- Markup cancellations (2,000)
Net markups 2,000
Additional Transport. 1,000
Transfers in 1,428 2,000
- Transfers out (714) (1,000)
Net Transfers 714 (1,000)
Total Goods Handled $100,714 $141,600
41. Total Goods Handled Cost Retail
Gross Sales $ 82,000
- Consumer Returns & Allowances ( 4,000)
Net Sales $ 78,000
Markdowns 6,000
- Markdown Cancellation (3,000)
Net Markdown 3,000
Employee Discounts 3,000
Discounts to Customers 500
Estimated Shrinkage 1,500
Total Reductions $ 86,000
Retail Inventory Method
Example