1. Consensus and interaction on a long
term strategy for Sustainable
Development
Karel Mulder
1

2. Why a long term vision?
Generally:
Required for every investment: How do I get an ROI?
But,
“In the long term, we are all dead”
John Maynard Keynes
2

3. Time frames matter
Longer term perspectives lead to different actions:
• cut tree, rent tree, use tree
• success of ‘family business
3

4. Grand SD challenges of today
• Climate change
• Depletion of resources
• Declining Biodiversity
• Overpopulation
• Food security
• Persistent pollution
• Mega risks
• Inequity
• Intolerance
• ……
4

5. Why a long term vision?
• These global problems take persistent action, during many
years………….
• But still, why a long term vision?
• Why not just work on the problems step by step?
• A few examples from transport:
5

6. SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGY????
6

7. Sustainable car? "The car’s body is composed 90% by
plate panels which are cut according
to the desired finish and the rests are
recycled, and completed with
thermo-formed pieces”.
The front and back trains, the engine
and the stick present a complexity
similar to the one of a three wheels
charge vehicle. The Nexo car can be
equipped with an engine which could
get to 20 hp, enough to reach 80
kilometres an hour to go around the
city. It can work with a 9 square
metres CNG tank that can fuel up to
250 kilometres. As an alternative,
there’s also the option of an electric
engine, but with less power.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/11/nexo_the_argent.php

8. Were cars around 1900 Sustainable?

9. •In 1818, New York City Council: regulation. Manure collection &
processing: special "manure-yards" to process: "rotting“, overturning
and exposure to weathering.
Problems:
•Abt. 1200 tons of manure daily on the streets: dust, typhoid
•dead animals (In 1880, New York City removed 15,000 dead horses
from its streets)
•Noise
•1908: 20.000 death?

10. Sustainability is not one thing, it is
many things….. Which have to be
balanced
• The technological improvements have effects for several SD
issues. E.g.
• Food vs. Fuel
• Fuel Efficiency vs. safety
• unhealthy but affordable
• Energy efficient but not recyclable
Long term vision represents consensus on a
balance of these demands
10

11. Requirements for a long term SD
vision
• Equity next generation
• Systemic technological changes: how to get out of
lock-in. We carry our histories:
• size of Saturn rocket
• Qwerty
• 220/240 Volts, Pb in gasoline
11

12. Short term solutions might
counteract long term solutions
R&D Investments, you can spend your euro only once
• More efficient use of coal, or windpower?
• Cutting less rainforest, or developing alternative
timber?
• Stimulating rail traffic, or going for clean electric cars?
• Light weight composites or recyclable materials?
12

13. Nobody can decide on the solutions
alone!
• We need to work consistently towards a long term
goal that implies working on technology, on laws, on
culture and habits
• Many stakeholders have ‘blocking’ power: if they are
not involved, they might derail the improvements:
researchers, companies, customers, suppliers, national
agencies, municipalities, etc.
13

14. Strategic decisions with long term
consequences!
These need to be
- widely accepted!
- Not ending up in a dead end street but at SD!
- Adaptable according to changing conditions.
14

15. a tremendous challenge for scientists
and engineers!
“The engineer” knows as little of technological
strategy, as a fish knows of hydrodynamics
15

16. Broadening the Innovation process and
long term vision
16

17. 17