Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 1

International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science

Advanced energy technology for
sustainable development
- Analysis of energy for sustainability-
Satoshi Konishi
Institute for Sustainability Science,
Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University

Aug.12-13, 2011

Summer School AACIMP-2011
Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Ukraine

Outline of the lecture

1. Sustainability, its concept and model in the ecological system
2. Global environment problem, resource and future energy

3. Effect of energy technology development

4. Introduction to fusion energy, principle, development status
and its application
5. Biomass conversion, hydrogen production and sustainable
energy system

6. Risk of energy supply chain and stability
7. Risk of energy generation, radiological hazardToday, vol.55, No.4 (2002)
Physics
and other risk
and Safety concept

Question: International Symposium on Global Sustainability

Can technology development make the sustainable society?

－not for the short-term, but to support the development
without sacrificing environment, economy and citizen life.

Short-term technology, i.e. increased production may not provide
ultimate solution for sustainability.

What does technology have to do?
- to provide long-term solution for sustainability

But, the researchers do not understand how their work would
CHANGE the social system.

- regardless of the source, energy itself is not sustainable.

Small quis
A cell of yeast doubles in an hour. Each cell consumes １０－１０mol sugar to
make ethanol as follows;
C6H１２O6 →２C2H5OH ＋２CO2
Initial condition： ①glucose 18 g in 100 cc water, 1 cell of yeast
②glucose 90 g in 100 cc water, 1 cell of yeast
Describe what happens. Yeasts cannot live in 12 % ethanol or more.
（log2=0.301, where ２１０＝１０３）

Solutions：
１） cells n, time t(h), then number of yeast is n=2t
consumption of glucose is expressed : Σ10-10n(t-1)=Σ10-102t =10-10(2t-1 )(mol)
t-1

where glucose is 180g/moland ethanol is 46g/mol. In 100ccof water, maximum
t=0

allowable ethanol is 0.3mol equivalent, that comes from 0.15mol sugar.
( n(t-1)+n(t-2)+…+n2+n+1)(n-1) = nt-1
with initial condition ①, glucose0.1mol is completely exhausted at t=30
with ②, while sugar could be spent out 32.3hours, yeasts die at 30.7hour.

There are various ways to explain what happens.
Equations are strong to calculate the exact amount, but sometimes inadequate
to explain to others.

In any case, Yeasts extinct after the exponential increase in number by
1) running out of foods : RESOURCE CONSTRAINT
2) killed by pollution mad by themselves : ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM

Is Mankind free from this mechanism? After the exponential increase of
population, either
RESOURCE or
ENVIRONMENT
may kill us.
Can we acquire unlimited clean energy resource?
Does it assure SUSTAINABILITY?

Lessons to Learn
０）respond within the time and resources….imagination helps.

１）There could be several Solutions.
ーvarious approaches
ーequations and numbers are not perfect. Sometimes inadequate.
－equations are only useful when implication is well understood.
simple explanation works usually better.
２）Energy, environment and resource problem has a very simple
structure.
to know and to understand is different.
－analogy is a very strong tool.
－but,excessive simplification (sometimes on purpose) is
dangerous.
（Even for yeast, mother nature is not such simple.）

３）Real problem comes later.

“sustainability”

Stable system：
What comes in =what comes out
energy energy
lifeforms
environment
enthropy
society
structure
materials waste

system

Sustainable system International Symposium on Global Sustainability

Energy and system technology
Input balances with output
In the steady state, they are stable

energy energy
lifeform
environment
entropy
society
matter structure waste

system

When species is regarded as a system, stable
population is a necessary criterion of sustainability.

Question
・In a closed water system, algae, water flea, and fishes are
living.
-Describe the mechanism that this system runs stably without
any input/output of materials.

fish energy energy
Water flea

bodily wastes algae lives
environment
society
materials waste
system
Water tank：system
energy balance？
material balance？
what else？

energy energy

lives
environment
heat society
enthropy materials system
waste

(1) energy balance
fish Water flea
・input：light
・output：heat
bodily wastes algae (2) material recycle
(3) these are not enough!
Wat is needed?
If not how the system cannot be stable?

２．What is different from the case of yeast in the last class?

３．What lesson do you have to learn?

Sustainable material balance

・Steady state “sustainable” solution in a closed eco-system
Heat
Entropy (1) Energy balance
・Energy input： light
・Energy output: heat and entropy
Killifish
Water flea
Stable system : steady energy consumption
CO2 O2
Algae energy balance
Detritus entropy
tubificids
(2) Material balance
・material cycle: waste used as resources
Material waste
(resource)
Energy and entropy exhaust required
(3) system balance
Carbon cycle ・stable population
mechanism to control relationships

Thanks to National Institute of Radiologic

Sustainable species International Symposium on Global Sustainability

ENVIRONMENT
Stable System
Energy Energy
Life Form

（ Enthropy）
Species

Material Waste

Input = Output (quantity balance)

Environment from system viewInternational Symposium on Global Sustainability
Previous concepts ① Environment is given
favour
② Creatures either adapt or fail
constraints
ENVIRONMENT ③ better adaptation causes
Adaptation Creature evolution
disturbance ④ Creatures disturb environment

① Environment changes with
Present concept creatures living there
② Combination of Reformed
ENVIRONMENT reform
Creature environment and creature make
material cycle System
③If System is suitable for creature
ENVIRONMENT’ and sustainable, it survives
Material cycle System ④Sustainability is an accidental
consequence

Growth in the local environment

ENVIRONMENT
Each reformed
Energy Material cycle

material

nuclei growth saturation

① System has a process of the generation of nuclei, growth at the
front, and saturation.
② Growth speed is described with Logistic functions.
③Stable state is controlled by the constraints of supply and
environmental capacity

Logistic curve growth International Symposium on Global Sustainability

Saturation occurs in all material cycle systems.

②growth ③stabilization

①generation

①nucli generation and their growth
environment and resource does not limit
②glowth look like exponential
③stabilized growth, resource and/or environment limits
④in the stable state, material recycle established with
other organisms sharing the same environment.
(when it is successful to survive)
⑤ genetic change is neutral and steady

evolution International Symposium on Global Sustainability

②generation of new
species
①stable
③evolution (progress)
of a species
④extinction

Same logistic process are applied all the species on the
earth.
This mechanism well explains apparent evolution of the
species.

Problem: International Symposium on Global Sustainability

We need energy. Mainly to sustain our body and activity.

－The energy drives the circulation of material in the
environment.

We humankind increased our activities with increased energy
demand and supply.

Energy technology is being developed and improving.

But, the researchers do not understand how their work would
CHANGE the social system.

- we have to understand how energy technology change our
world.

Economy growth

Energy Sustainability
Development

Energy Demand
Growth
(GDP)
Population

Energy supply causes population increase→energy demand
Even a clean energy is not sustainable under the industrial
revolution model.

2．Resource, environment and
technology

Evaluation of Energy

Future energy must respond to the
demand of the society.
・All the R&D programs are evaluated from the aspect of
cost effectiveness = “Value for Money”.
－All the energy technologies are evaluated from the
aspect of future social demand.
－ “Effect” can be measured in monetary terms.
－However, market is not the only place where its value is
estimated.
－ Energy supply affects environment, public and society
through various paths other than market. (Externality)
→Investment for research and development can be justified
from the expected effect to the future society.

Population growth

Worlds population
Anticipated to be ca. 10 billion
around 2050. Mostly urban
Increases in
developing countries and
urban area.

Developing countries

present Logistic curve dy/dt = ky2(L-y) 2 present

Electricity and living standard

• Living standard
increase with
power consumption
up to ~4,000kWh

• In developing
● Developed Countries
● Middle & South America countries, people
● Asia are considered to
● Africa
● Middle East
seek living
● East Europe, Former Soviet standard
corresponding to
~4,000kWh

United Nations estimated from education,
 as the generation
medical system and expected life, etc.
capacity, it is ~1kW

Yearly power consumption per man (kWh)

Future Energy Market

1990 8.3BTOE 2100 28.5BTOE
NA NIES/ASEAN
NIES/ASEAN
JAPAN EU
RF
RF East Europe
NA East Europe
EU

China Other China
JAPAN Other India India
Current fusion studying countries will be minority in energy consumption
Developing(growing) countries will play a major role.

Resource exhausts?

・What is R/P ratio? Exhausting year?
R/P = resource (t)/consumption(t/y)
year

164

85
67
41

oil gas coal uranium change of R/P of oil
Energy resources and R/P ratio by BP2005

Never run out

It is not a lack of materials
・R/P ratio shows the measure of demand to start exploration
→people will not start resource search until it is strongly
needed newly found resource may be sold after R/P years later.
→R/P ratio controls the searching activity.
・when resource price increases, expensive sources disregarded
as “resource” becomes available.(distant, poor, expensive,
unconventional..)
・increased price discourages consumption and promote savings.
・technology to find, produce, process and use improves always.
・resources are substituted.
“Stone age finished before stones run out”
→nevertheless resource constraints and sometimes run out
….particularly “renewables” would.

16century, Easter Ilands

Moai.
（出典）ＴｈｅＭＯＡＩＨＰ 20
Lost with exhausted energy resource.

Civilization can disappear within 100 years
By resource constraint.

（出典）ＴｈｅＭＯＡＩＨＰ 22

CO2 emission

CO2 concentration in Air

human emission

year

Fossil consumption and ＣＯ2
Fossil consumption, 8

fossil

revolution
Industrial
4
Total energy
billion ton

0
1000 1500 2000
380
CO2 concentration

360
340
320
300
280
260
1000 1500 2000
year

consumption of fossil fuel corresponds to the CO2
increase

Life Cycle Analyis of Energy International Symposium on Global Sustainability

Life cycle CO2 emission

Coal/CO2 sequestration

LNG/CO2 sequestration

Photovoltaic （Industrial)
By Y.Uchiyama and K. Tokimatsu
300
270

Photovoltaic(home)
Emission(g/kwh)

Coal

CO

200 200
178
Oil

LNG

Wind

Fusion
Fission
CO2

100

Hydro
85 81

3.3.7 34.3
7 .3
12 40 16 6-12
31 46 4. 8 5. 7
0 24

Fossil should be replaced by new “clean”energy technology

World Energy Source

actual estimated

Renewables
Oil shock nuclear
108 Ton oil equivalent /year

Oil shock
Natural gas
WW2 hydr
oil o
WW1

coal

Fossil will remain, but poorer in quality and quantity.
Demand will continue to increase.
→ new energy source will be strongly needed.

element Existing in earth Existing resource(R) Production R/P[y] 主な産出国
crast[1000t] resource [1000t] P[1000y/t]
x10 13.6 [1000t]
aluminum 3,240,000,000 28,000,00 23,000,000 114,009 202 豪州(38%)ギニア(13%)
0
iron 1,990,000,000 112,000,0 68,000,000 954,900 71 中国(25%)ブラジル(18%)
00
titanium 175,000,000 440,000 270,000 3,990 68 豪州(52%)ノルウェー(19%)
manganese 37,800,000 5,000,000 680,000 22,300 30 中国(27%)南ア共(15%)
zirconium 6,570,000 62,000 32,000 857 37 豪州(54%)南ア共(30%)
vanadium 5,370,000 27,000 10,000 35 286 南ア共(46%)ロシア(31%)
cromium 3,980,000 7,500,000 3,700,000 12,200 303 南ア共(41%)トルコ(16%)
nickel 2,990,000 140,000 40,000 1,010 40 ロシア(22%)カナダ(19%)
zinc 2,790,000 430,000 190,000 7,226 26 カナダ(17%)中国(14%)
copper 2,190,000 630,000 320,000 10,756 30 チリ(28%)米国(18%)
cobalt 995,000 9,000 4,000 27 148 ザンビア(29%)カナダ(21%)
niobium 796,000 4,200 3,500 16 219 ブラジル(85%)カナダ(15%)
lithium 796,000 9,400 3,700 21 176 ボリビアチリ
lead 517,000 120,000 65,000 2,738 24 米国(16%) 中国(15%)
boron 398,000 470,000 170,000 3,250 52 トルコ(48%)米国(36%)
beryllium 111,000 800 421 0.35 1200 米国(84%)ロシア(14%)
tin 79,600 12,000 7,700 206 37 中国(26%)
molybden 59,700 12,000 5,500 127 43 米国(44%)中国(20%)

Reduction of CO2 emission

Known technology is insufficient to achieve
zero emission eventually.
18
16,080
16
BAU BAU
14
CO2 emission ＧＴＣ 12,379
Saving 12
renewable 9,929
10
8,162
8 9,416
Saving 8,889
6,372
Renewable 6 6,306
Advanced nuclear 5,853
4 5,063

2
Saving
Renewable
0
Advanced nuclear 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
+hydrogen
year

from public viewpoint

・Public, society and government requires research is worth
－ for investment, more benefit will be eventually returned.
－ damage on environment, threat for public safety
be reduced .

・Energy must be socially and economically feasible.
－economical competitiveness
－market eligibility
－social acceptance, environmental friendliness…

→technology will be compared with other energy sources,
funding must compete with other research programs.

→researchers must show the outcome will respond social
requirements.

World Energy Investment International Symposium on Global Sustainability

2001-2030 Total investment: 16 trillion dollars

46% Power
E&D 72% generation

Electricity
Refining 13% 54% T&D
Other 15%
60%
Oil 19%

E&D 55% Gas 19%
Coal 2% 88% Mining
LNG Chain 8%
T&D and 37%
Storage 12% Shipping
and ports
Electricity investment will dominates. In each sub-sector, production
accounts for the majority of investment – except for electricity
Electricity is made by technology. Fuel is supplied by resource
Figure by J. Sheffield

Energy Investment by Region
Figure by J. Sheffield
cumulative investment (billion dollars)
4,000
3,500 2001-2030 20

share in global investment (%)
3,000
2,500 15
2,000
1,500 10

1,000
5
500
0 0
OECDChina Other Asia Russia OECD India Brazil
North OECD Africa MiddlePacific Other
America Europe Other Latin transition
East America economies
Almost half of energy investment requirements of
$16 trillion will be needed in developing countries
20th century 21st century
Developed countries research Developed countries research
and deploy new technology Developing country use.
R&D investment 0.27%GDP in Thai, Japan 3%, by Thai report.

Energy Options for Sustainability

・Cost of technology decreases
・Cost of resources increases Resource
・All energy technology have constraint
both features technology
fossil
・External cost sometimes

price
plays major role
・Various constraints may
affect
・Energy may not be selected by
market.
-government Sum of production
-social option Technical
improvement

Technology and resource

60

50

コスト（ 1997年価格￠/kWh
40

）
30

20

BAU 新エネ促進
10

0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
年

Price of fossil energy Cost of PV
Cost of the resource always Cost of technology always
increases because of decreases due to the
consumption. improvement

Energy for sustainability

Future energy must respond to the
demand of the society.
・clean.
・ abundant.
・ economical.
－However, market is not the only place where its value is
estimated.
－ Energy supply affects environment, public and society
through various paths other than market. (Externality)
－ Demand does not guarantee the sales.
Supply chain constraint
→Limitation
→glow speed

Sustainability question

Developers and users are different by
area and generation.
Innovative technology provides clean energy
to respond demands.
ーmay we satisfy the demands if energy is clean?
ーdoesn’t clean energy jeopardize sustainability?
Impacts of the energy technology can be analyzed
－does it analyze all the risks?
ー is transition (growth) always good?

…good index for “sustainability” yet to find.

Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 1

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