Ai futures 20170830 v5
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How long until we have digital workers? At $1000/year or $10/year?
![The Past
• The Dartmouth
Conference of
1956[39] was
organized by Marvin
Minsky, John
McCarthy and two
senior scientists:
Claude Shannon and
Nathan Rochester of
IBM
8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Ai futures 20170830 v5
- 1. Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence (AI) August 30, 2017 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 1
- 2. The Past • The Dartmouth Conference of 1956[39] was organized by Marvin Minsky, John McCarthy and two senior scientists: Claude Shannon and Nathan Rochester of IBM 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2
- 3. AI Trends 8/30/2017 © IBM Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) 3 Dota 2 “Deep Learning” for “Pattern Recognition” depends on massive amounts of labeled data and computing power available since ~2012
- 4. Hillery Hunter (IBM) Distributed Deep Learning 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 4
- 5. IBM Research TrueNorth Chip • Extremely Low Power • Fast Inference • High Accuracy • 6000 frames/sec/watt 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 5
- 6. Preparing for the Future of AI 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 6 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Spohrer’s Program High School 1972 Mehta and Krishnan’s Program High School 2016
- 7. Cupertino Teens • IBM Watson on Bluemix 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 7
- 8. IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing… 8/30/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 8 So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
- 9. AI Leaders • Who is winning? • Regions China vs USA vs EU vs ROW • Companies Microsoft vs Google vs IBM • Leaderboards • SQuAD – Question Answering • EFF Measuring AI Progress 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 9
- 10. AI to IA Timeline: Hard unsolved AI problems • 2012-2019 AI Pattern Recognition and Learning from Massive Labeled Data • Speech, image, translation, driverless, games • Chatbots as digital assistants • 2020 Video Understanding • 2021 Episodic Memory • 2022 Learning from Watching • 2023 Commonsense Reasoning ** • 2024 Learning from Doing • 2025 Fluent Conversation • 2026 Learning from Reading • 2027-2035 Cognitive Collaborator and Mediator; Intelligence Augmentation (IA) 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 10
- 11. Preparing for the Future of AI 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 11 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Spohrer’s Program High School 1972 Mehta and Krishnan’s Program High School 2016
- 12. 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 12 I have… Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
- 13. 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 13
- 14. 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 14 I have… Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
- 15. Learning to program: My first program 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 15 Early Computer Science Class: Watson Center at Columbia 1945 Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
- 16. 8/30/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 16 Fast Forward 2016: Consider this…
- 17. Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016 8/30/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 17
- 18. Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016 8/30/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 18
- 19. IBM Image Tagging 8/30/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 19
- 20. IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing… 8/30/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 20 So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
- 21. Courses • 2015 • “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” • 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy • 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject • 2025 • “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” • Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week • 2035 • “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” • Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day • Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves • 2055 • “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” • Most people have 100 digital workers. 8/30/2017 21
- 23. Definitions: AI vs IA 8/30/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 23 AI is Artificial Intelligence, or intelligence in machines (smart machines) IA is Intelligence Augmentation, or people thinking and working together with smart machines. IA is what IBM calls “Cognitive Computing” and the smart machines are called “Watson Solutions” or more generally “Digital Cognitive Systems (Cogs)” Cognition as a Service (CaaS): AI building blocks for IA solutions
- 24. Augmenting Workers 8/30/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 24
- 25. 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 25 Cognitive Mediators for all people in all roles
- 26. Occupations = Many Tasks 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 26
- 27. Watson Discovery Advisor 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 27 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
- 28. User Models 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 28
- 29. $5M Prize 8/30/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 29
- 30. 8/30/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 30
- 31. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
- 32. 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 32 Future of Skills
- 33. Future-Ready T-Shapes 8/30/2017 © IBM UPWard 2016 33
- 34. IBM in Silicon Valley: From Punch Cards…. 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 34 On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children, among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special train that carried them across the continent to establish new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.
- 35. 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 35
- 36. IBM in Silicon Valley: To Brain Chips…. 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 36
- 37. 8/30/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 37
- 38. Types: Progression of models and capabilities 8/30/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 38 Task & World Model/ Planning & Decisions Self Model/ Self Capacity & Limits User Model/ User’s Episodic Memory and Identity Institutions Model/ Trust & Social Acts Tool + - - - Assistant ++ + - - Collaborator +++ ++ + - Coach ++++ +++ ++ + Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++ tool assistant collaborator coach mediator
- 39. Build: 10 million minutes of experience 8/30/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 39
- 40. Build: 2 million minutes of experience 8/30/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 40
- 41. Build: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation 8/30/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 41
- 42. In Summary 8/30/2017 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 42 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
- 43. Preparing for the Future of AI 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 43 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Spohrer’s Program High School 1972 Mehta and Krishnan’s Program High School 2016
- 44. Questions • What is the timeline for solving AI and IA? • Who are the leaders driving AI progress? • What will the biggest benefits from AI be? • What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and are they real? • What technologies may have a bigger impact than AI? • What are the implications for stakeholders: individuals, businesses and other organizations, industries, cities, states, and nations? • How should we prepare to get the benefits and avoid the risks? 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 44
- 45. AI to IA Timeline: Hard unsolved AI problems • 2012-2019 AI Pattern Recognition and Learning from Massive Labeled Data • Speech, image, translation, driverless, games • Chatbots as digital assistants • 2020 Video Understanding • 2021 Episodic Memory • 2022 Learning from Watching • 2023 Commonsense Reasoning ** • 2024 Learning from Doing • 2025 Fluent Conversation • 2026 Learning from Reading • 2027-2035 Cognitive Collaborator and Mediator; Intelligence Augmentation (IA) 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 45
- 46. AI Leaders • Who is winning? • Regions China vs USA vs EU vs ROW • Companies Microsoft Google vs IBM • Leaderboards • SQuAD – Question Answering • EFF Measuring AI Progress 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 46
- 47. AI Benefits • Access to expertise • “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers • Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance, etc. • Better choices • ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on what matters most • AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher value co-creation interactions 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 47
- 48. AI Risks • Job Loss • Shorter term bigger risk = de-skilling • Super-intelligence • Shorter term bigger risk = bad actors 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 48
- 49. Other Technologies: Bigger impact? • Augmented Reality (AR)/ Virtual Reality (VR) • Game worlds grow-up • Blockchain • Trust and security abound • Material and energy systems • Manufacturing as cheap, local recycling service (wind, sun, geo, nuke, leaf…) 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 49
- 50. Stakeholders • Individuals • Businesses and other Organizations • Industries • Regions: Cities, States, Nations 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 50
- 51. Prepare • Learn 3 R’s – Read, Redo, Report • Open AI code + data + models + stacks + governance 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 51 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
- 52. Miscellaneous other questions • What skills for success? Rapidly rebuilding from scratch • Learning improves outcomes • Learning can also improve pathways • Why not “label data” day? Stay inside if you don’t want to be data! • Why no alien AI? Don’t exist or a “prime directive” to not interfere? 8/30/2017 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 52
Notas do Editor
- URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_artificial_intelligence URL: http://www.businessinsider.com/infographic-ai-effect-on-economy-2017-8 Today’s infographic comes from the Extraordinary Future 2017, a new conference in Vancouver, BC that focuses on emerging technologies such as AI, autonomous vehicles, fintech, and block http://extraordinaryfuture.com/e/extraordinary-future-2017-71chain tech. Nathaniel Rochester: In 1948, Rochester moved to IBM where he designed the IBM 701, the first general purpose, mass-produced computer. He wrote the first symbolic assembler, which allowed programs to be written in short, readable commands rather than pure numbers or punch codes.
- 1950 Nathaniel Rochester (IBM) 701 first commercial computer that did super-human levels of numeric calculations routinely. He worked at MIT on arithmetic unit of WhirlWind I programmable computer. Dota 2 is most recent August 11, 2017 as a super-human game player in Valve Dota 2 competition – Elon Musk’s OpenAI result.
- URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.08270.pdf
- URL: http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/08/04/cupertino-teens-score-20000-for-24-hours-of-work/ Karan Mehta and Anish Krishnan
- URL: http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/08/04/cupertino-teens-score-20000-for-24-hours-of-work/ Karan Mehta and Anish Krishnan
- Chatbots: http://kasisto.com/
- Today’s talk will explore two questions What should we know how to make? What might programming education become? If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them. Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play? Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
- Today’s talk will explore two questions What should we know how to make? What might programming education become? If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them. Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play? Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
- In the 1940’s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia. My first program – punch cards 1972.
- Here is what I tell students.... ... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era: (0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy; - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope") - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly - debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY - more about the ambitions at http://cognitive-science.info (1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions (2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions (3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000 - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power) (4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc. (5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them" - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era... In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook.... In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook.... http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2 By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force. Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features: Suits - body suit cell phones Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to us - and what we know and our goals. Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team.... The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness - and note especially the wellness suit at the end: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
- 3 years ago, Watson demonstrated promise on TV show Jeopardy! Now starting to become reality Overnight success was 6 hard years in the making Trained to tap into the vast domain of knowledge and then rip through it Very first cognitive computing platform Watson has since been applied in the areas you see along the bottom of this chart
- Artificial Intelligence is intelligence in machines. Intelligence Augment is people with smart machines.
- O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc. O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time. Source: http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0
- By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
- From Punchcards….. History of IBM in San Jose http://www.almaden.ibm.com/almaden20/history.shtml
- Source: https://books.google.com/books?id=AzHs2vi9UegC&pg=SA1-PA10&lpg=SA1-PA10&dq=%22this+has+been+a+day+of+solid+achievement%22&source=bl&ots=2cXOJI5iN7&sig=6MpztsLgQTqQvCDatlr-o-sRZ7w&hl=en&sa=X&ei=kY-eVbC_CMuosAXOnb7YBQ&ved=0CCgQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=%22this%20has%20been%20a%20day%20of%20solid%20achievement%22&f=false
- To Brain Chips…. Modha’s Brain - Goal 1KW and 2 Litres…. Dharmendra Modha and his design for a brain chip playing pong: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ3HEVelBFY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqeINGOzIZo https://twitter.com/dharmendramodha/status/545693986149511168
- Where is the variety? Hardware and even software standardizing into modules and algorithms…. Data will standardize next into categories and types…. Experience is where the uniqueness is, and variety and variability, and identity.
- Chatbots: http://kasisto.com/
- Notes: New products that we don’t understand how they work? Consciousness? How to measure intelligence?