2. Introduction
World economy: stumbling into 2011?
- one leg trying to run, one in a liquidity-debt trap
UK & SW economy : rebalancing
- all together now
Policy background : fiscal correction
- sub-regional growth & CSR
4. SW PMI: output & employment ratios
PMI Output Index - Latest Month
35
40
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65
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
SW UK +/- balance
PMI Employment Index - Latest Month
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40
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
SW UK +/- balance
5. CSR+: UK impacts
ST: weaker growth, lower employment, higher inflation
LT: Salt or Fresh water economics?
CUTS: spending down from 47.5% to 41% GDP
aggregate: £216bn spending + £102bn tax
- over 4 fiscal years = 13% of “might have been”
RGDP growth below trend for years
= falling real incomes & rising unemployment
Offsets – interest rates, £, rebalancing – I & X… strength?
6. CSR+ : SW jobs impacts
updating after CSR but (OBR, PWC, RDA, CIPD)
gross jobs 490k direct => 600k public + 500k
private => 1.6mn total
SW: 60k => 85k => 115k depending on
how/when axe falls
12% => 14% => 10% of total
net ?? – anywhere from zero to two-thirds
7. SW : Businesses v Households
companies better off than people
domestic demand (Y&E)
procurement – crowding in or out?
interest & exchange rates
profitability, debt & liquidity
financial logjams : liquidity-debt trap
confidence on I & E & X? = rebalancing?
8. SW : rebalancing story
Characteristics
unemployment & under/hidden employment
small/micro business, part-time workers
northern wages with southern prices/costs
low investment & trade engagement - access & aspiration
dependence on domestic demand:
private consumption & government
Challenges
need for investment & exports
- HV products & services v HJ sectors
all trying to be ants rather than grasshoppers
plus insect squashers - climate & demography & technology