Achieving SDG's 1, 2, 3 and 5: What role for Agriculture in Bangladesh?

1. ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT GOALS 1, 2, 3 & 5
What Role for Agriculture in Bangladesh?
Akhter Ahmed
Country Representative for Bangladesh
International Food Policy Research Institute
Conference on Sustainable Development Goals:
Preparedness and Role of Indian Agriculture
New Delhi | 11-12 May 2017

2. IFPRI’s BIHS: Big data, big impact
 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS): Nationally
representative household survey. 2011 - 2015 panel.
 Downloads of BIHS dataset to date: 56,000
 Diverse users across 6 continents

3. Prevalence of poverty: Percent of people living on
less than $1.25/day in rural Bangladesh
IFPRI BIHS data
Change in poverty headcount in rural Bangladesh:
 39.6% in 2011 29.4% in 2015
Daily per capita consumption expenditures from 2011 and
2015 IFPRI household surveys were adjusted for inflation
using Basic Needs Price Index (2005 base year) obtained
from the World Bank
Used the international poverty line of $1.25 per day,
measured at 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange
rate for Bangladesh: PPP$1.00=25.494 taka (World Bank)
Calculated local currency equivalent of PPP $1.25 a day
poverty line using 2012 and 2015 BNPI estimates
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4. Dynamics of poverty in rural Bangladesh:
Changes from 2011 to 2015
IFPRI BIHS data
4
52.2
20.0 19.7
8.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Non-poor remained non-
poor
Poor remained poor Poor moved out of
poverty
Non-poor fell into
povery
Percentofruralpopulation

5. Why do the poor remain poor?
Using multinomial logit regression and IFPRI BIHS panel data, we
examined probable reasons why the poor remained in poverty
from 2011 to 2015. Main factors that increase the likelihood of
remaining in poverty are:
Low levels of human and physical assets: Lack of education of
HH heads, land holding, and reduction in total value of other
assets
Decrease in nonfarm income share in total income
Decrease in women’s empowerment in agriculture (WEAI)
Decrease in savings; no remittances
No access to electricity and no ownership of cell phone
Longer distance to main road
5

6. What factors affect farmers’ income?
Using random effects panel regression and a sub-sample of IFPRI
BIHS data, results show that farmers’ income tends to increase if:
HH male head and female spouse have at least secondary school
education
HH has access to commercial loans
Women are more empowered (measured by WEAI)
Non-farm income share increases
Have access to electricity (solar panel or national grid) and own cell
phone
Domestic and international remittances increase
Farmers’ income tends to decrease when:
 Share of cropped land under rice cultivation increases

7. National agricultural wage increased sharply
Wage increase helps the poorest
In June 2008, agricultural
laborers could buy 4.5 kg
of rice from a day’s wage
In June 2016, a day’s
wage increased to 11 kg
of rice.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Takaperday
Nominal Real

8. ANGeL Project: Background
• IFPRI research in Bangladesh shows:
• Agricultural diversity increases household and child dietary
diversity
• Women’s empowerment improves household, child, and
maternal dietary diversity
• Women’s empowerment increases agricultural diversity
• June 2014: Motivated by research findings, IFPRI developed a
concept note for Ministry of Agriculture to strengthen the
agriculture-nutrition-gender nexus.
• October 2015: Government approved Agriculture, Nutrition,
and Gender Linkages (ANGeL) project for implementation by
Ministry of Agriculture; Ministry launched project in October
2015.

9. ANGeL Project Design
• ANGeL is an experimental project in 16 of 64 districts in
Bangladesh
• IFPRI evaluates impacts of 3 interventions and their 5
combinations using clustered RCT method. Interventions are:
• Agricultural Production training to farm HHs (men and
women, together)
• Nutrition BCC training to farm HHs (men and women,
together)
• Gender Sensitization activities for farm HHs (men and
women, together). Designed to improve status of women
and gender parity between women and men.
• ANGeL Project draws on the government’s nationwide
agricultural extension network, ‘topping-up’ their portfolio with
nutrition activities and messages.

10. ANGeL – Way Forward
• After 2 years, the ANGeL experimental research will identify
which interventions most effectively increase agricultural
diversity, increase farmers’ income, improve nutrition, and
promote women’s empowerment.
• The Ministry of Agriculture plans to use the research-based
evidence to scale up the most effective interventions all
over Bangladesh.
• ANGeL is the first ministry-led initiative that uses a rigorous
impact evaluation, the randomized controlled trial (RCT), to
develop an evidence base to design and implement a
national program.

11. Thank you
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