Geoff Mulgan - Retrenchment or revolution
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Geoff Mulgan delivered the keynote presentation at Socitm 2009. There is a summary of this presentation and a short interview with Geoff free-to-view at www.socitm09.net.
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Geoff Mulgan - Retrenchment or revolution
- 1. SOCITM Retrenchment or revolution? Edinburgh October 2009 Geoff Mulgan
- 3. 42 per cent of councils have an official Twitter account to communicate to citizens, 22 per cent have an official Facebook profile.
- 4. 42 per cent of councils have an official Twitter account to communicate to citizens, 22 per cent have an official Facebook profile. But how many know how to be a friend?
- 7. Where are we now? • The economics ‐ even with economic upturn, savage cuts ahead – 10‐20% • The politics – change at Westminster, shifting relationship with LG
- 8. What does this tell us? • Where we stand – the crisis and beyond • The emerging principles for handling information, feedback and relationships • Some dilemmas • What happens when innovation becomes unavoidable? • Headed just for retrenchment ‐or revolution?
- 9. The Young Foundation – over 50 years of innovation using technology
- 13. Starting with insights into needs, and compelling questions ... – What can be done to reduce isolation in old age? – What kind of school would have teenagers fighting to get in, not to keep out? – How can a city think? – What makes people happy? – What if everyone became a teacher and a learner? – How can power reflect the people its meant to serve? – What would most transform the potential of an unemployed young person? ... and translate into practical impact through ventures, projects
- 14. 40 ventures (charity, private and 65+ staff ...... public) ...projects in 35 local areas around the UK ... Staff in New York, Paris, Lisbon and partners in the USA, Australia, Brazil, China, Singapore, South Korea, South Africa, Canada, and across Europe 14
- 20. The meaning of the crisis
- 23. Bubbles, recessions & golden ages TURNING INSTALLATION PERIOD POINT DEPLOYMENT PERIOD Bubble Golden Age 1771 Britain Canal mania 1793–97 Great British leap 1829 Britain Railway mania 1848–50 The Victorian Boom 1875 Britain / USA London funded global market Belle Époque (Europe) Germany infrastructure build-up 1890–95 (Argentina, Australia, USA) “Progressive Era” (USA) Europe 1908 The roaring 1929–33 Post-war USA twenties USA Golden age 1929–43 1971 Telecom mania, Internet emerging markets Sustainable global USA 2000/7–? and NASDAQ knowledge-society ”golden age”? Each Golden Age facilitated by enabling regulation and policies for shaping and widening markets
- 24. 20 – 30 years 20 – 30 years INSTALLATION PERIOD DEPLOYMENT PERIOD MATURITY Degree of diffusion of the technological revolution SYNERGY TURNING POINT Market Financial saturation Bubble and Technological social explosion Golden Age unrest FRENZY IRRUPTION Time big‐bang Institutional Next Crash big‐bang recomposition
- 25. • Explains why computers were everywhere except in the productivity statistics • Why some powerful ideas never made it (and some very bad ones did) • Why a crash was likely – and what good could come out of it
- 26. • A surge of implementation – cogno, nano, info, bio – but different models • Institutional innovation to enable this – radical change to business models, regulations &c • Social industries as key source of GDP, jobs growth (health, care, education, environmental services) • Productivity pressures in public sector as key field for radical innovation
- 27. So where next?
- 30. From information and communication through transaction to principles for the next phase • Lower cost • Modular, incremental, organic • Simple and direct • Transparent • Peer support • User power
- 31. Follow the money
- 38. Complex interactions online
- 43. Encouraging citizen responsibility
- 47. Intellipedia • 16 key US security agencies use a wiki‐style application to share knowledge in real time • Over 30,000 articles and 114 new articles and more than 4,800 edits to articles added each workday Mr Richard A Russell, Deputy Assistant Director of National Intelligence said it was created so "analysts in different agencies that work on X or Y can go in and see what other people are doing on subject X or Y and actually add in their two cents worth ... or documents that they have." "What we’re after here is 'decision superiority,' not 'information superiority',"
- 48. The hyper local
- 61. A hyper‐local ‘super‐site’? Writetothem.com Budget allocator Planningalert.com Everyblock.com On‐line engagement tools Mapping tools Hearfromyourcouncillor.com Neighbourhood information Neighbourhood alerts E‐government Fixmystreet.com e‐petitions Local public services online debates e‐democracy Personalised services e‐budgeting yourhistoryhere.com Citizen reporting Neighbourhoodsunited.co.uk Local culture Local Digital storytelling Neighbourhood news Forums networks Blogs facebook Timebanks Local marketplaces Campaigning pledgebank.com E‐bay Digital timebanks freecycle
- 62. Some dilemmas – like who’ll respond?
- 64. Some dilemmas – like who’ll control the data?
- 67. The bigger picture: getting smart about innovation
- 71. Systematic innovation to explore the new frontiers of productivity • Economies of scale – eg aggregating call centres, platforms like the School of Everything • Economies of scope – eg one stop shops, multi‐purpose personal advisers, neighbourhood media • Economies of flow – eg hospitals specialising in a few operations, Health Impact Contracts/Social Impact Bonds • Economies of penetration – eg Combined Heat and Power, street concierges • Economies of responsibility ‐ personal assembly models, public service platforms
- 72. “It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.” Franklin D. Roosevelt
- 74. Retrenchment and revolution
- 75. Banksy