The document discusses draft value in Major League Soccer (MLS) based on a statistical analysis of player data from 1996-2016. It finds that only about half of drafted players ever appear in an MLS match, and half leave the league within 4 years. The value of draft picks declines sharply after the first round. Late-round picks have under a 50% chance of playing in MLS and contribute little total career value. While early picks can expect 100-game careers, the average tenure of a drafted player is only about 3.5 years with their drafting club.
2. CASSIS 2016 2
What is a MLS draft pick worth?
50% never appear in league50% never appear in league
50% out of MLS within 4 years50% out of MLS within 4 years
55% don't achieve expected55% don't achieve expected
career value for their teamscareer value for their teams
If you knew what a draft pick is
worth, what would you do with it?
3. CASSIS 2016 3
Talk Outline
●
The Draft in Context
●
How do we value a
draft pick?
●
How have draft
values evolved?
●
Which draft picks
stand out?
●
Which clubs stand
out in the Draft?
4. CASSIS 2016 4
MLS Player Data Set
Biographical
Data
Initial Acquisition
Data
Financial
Data
(2007-2015)
Performance
Data
Player Name(s)
Date of Birth
Nationality
Default Position(s)
Acquisition Year
Acquiring Team
Acquisition Path
Draft Path:
Draft Type
Round
Selection Number
Generation Adidas
(N=1813)
Contract Year
Contracting Team
Compensation:
Base
Guaranteed
Minutes
Appearances
Substitutions
Yellow/Red Cards
Field Player-specific
Goalkeeper-specific
All players acquired by Major League Soccer
between 1996-2016 (N=3250 players)
Data Sources: MLS Players Union (Financial Data), ENB Sports Soccer Player
Database (Performance Data), Major League Soccer (Acquisition Data)
5. CASSIS 2016 5
Analysis Overview
Normalization of Draft Position
α=
k−1
N−1
α:[1, N ]→[0,1]
Survival Analysis
S(tij)=Pr[Ti> j]
Event: Final exit from Major League Soccer
Censored Observations: Active MLS players
All Players Drafted Between 1996-2015
6. CASSIS 2016 6
Draft Declining In Influence –
But Still Important
Golden Age
of the
Drafted
Player
Current
Reality
of the
Drafted
Player
16. CASSIS 2016 16
Given this environment for drafted players,
what is a draft pick worth?
40% of all players40% of all players
20% of incoming players20% of incoming players
50% never play in league50% never play in league
3.5 years with drafting team3.5 years with drafting team
17. CASSIS 2016 17
Valuing MLS Draft Picks
Player Value Expression Player Value
Scope
Time Horizon
Minutes
Minutes + goals + assists
(Field players)
Minutes + goals allowed + clean sheets
(Goalkeepers)
Average
Maximum
Career
Cumulative to
previous year
Up to N years before
previous year
V =
√( M
Mmax
)
2
+
( G
Gmax
)
2
+
( A
Amax
)
2
3
, field players
V =
√( M
Mmax
)
2
+
(1−
GA
GA ,max
)
2
+
( S
Smax
)
2
3
, goalkeepers
All College/SuperDraft Selections Between 1997-2013
18. CASSIS 2016 18
Draft Pick Valuation Models
Training Data
Career value of drafted player
Career value of drafted player up
to current year
Cumulative value of drafted
player while playing for drafting
club up to current year
Omniscient Model
Present Model
Club Model
19. CASSIS 2016 19
Evaluating MLS Draft Picks
●
Create draft value curve by local regression → V()
●
Value differential: difference between expected and actual
career values
R= Δeα
,Δ>0
Δe
1−α
,Δ<0
Δ=∑V p−V (α)
Draft Performance Rating
Value Differential Scaled
by Draft Position
31. CASSIS 2016 31
Draft Performance Extremes:
Present Draft Valuation Model
Year Pick Player Position Club
1997 29 Kevin Hartman GK LA Galaxy
2002 50 Davy Arnaud F Sporting Kansas City
2005 35 Gonzalo Segares D Chicago Fire
2010 51 Sean Johnson GK Chicago Fire
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Position Club
1998 3 Ben Parry D San Jose Earthquakes
2005 1 Nik Besagno M Real Salt Lake
1997 2 Mike Fisher M Tampa Bay Mutiny
2011 1 Omar Salgado F Vancouver Whitecaps
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
32. CASSIS 2016 32
Draft Performance Extremes:
Club Draft Valuation Model
Year Pick Player Position Club
1997 29 Kevin Hartman GK LA Galaxy
2002 50 Davy Arnaud F Sporting Kansas City
2005 35 Gonzalo Segares D Chicago Fire
2010 51 Sean Johnson GK Chicago Fire
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Position Club
1998 3 Ben Parry D San Jose Earthquakes
2001 1 Chris Carrieri F San Jose Earthquakes
1997 2 Mike Fisher M Tampa Bay Mutiny
1999 1 Jason Moore M DC United
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
33. CASSIS 2016 33
Draft Performance Extremes:
Defenders (Present Model)
Year Pick Player Club
2004 60 Jeff Parke New York Red Bulls
1998 30 Joe Franchino LA Galaxy
2005 35 Gonzalo Segares Chicago Fire
1998 8 Mike Petke MetroStars
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Club
1998 3 Ben Parry San Jose Earthquakes
2000 9 John Wilson Sporting Kansas City
1999 10 Tony Soto LA Galaxy
1999 9 Matt Chulis Columbus Crew
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
34. CASSIS 2016 34
Draft Performance Extremes:
Forwards (Present Model)
Year Pick Player Club
2002 50 Davy Arnaud Sporting Kansas City
1998 9 Jeff Cunningham Columbus Crew
2004 53 Alan Gordon LA Galaxy
2005 29 Chris Rolfe Chicago Fire
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Club
2011 1 Omar Salgado Vancouver Whitecaps
1999 7 John Wolyniec MetroStars
1999 8 Andrew Mittendorf Colorado Rapids
2007 8 Jerson Monteiro Chicago Fire
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
35. CASSIS 2016 35
Draft Performance Extremes:
Goalkeepers (Present Model)
Year Pick Player Club
1997 29 Kevin Hartman LA Galaxy
1998 26 Matt Reis LA Galaxy
2000 35 Nick Rimando Miami Fusion FC
2002 23 Jon Busch Columbus Crew
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Club
2008 8 Josh Lambo FC Dallas
2008 12 Dominic Cervi Chicago Fire
2002 22 Bryheem Hancock LA Galaxy
2002 24 Mike McGinty DC United
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
36. CASSIS 2016 36
Draft Performance Extremes:
Midfielders (Present Model)
Year Pick Player Club
2003 43 Jack Jewsbury Sporting Kansas City
1998 14 Carey Talley DC United
1998 13 Pablo Mastroeni Miami Fusion FC
2002 3 Brad Davis MetroStars
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Club
2005 1 Nik Besagno Real Salt Lake
1997 2 Mike Fisher Tampa Bay Mutiny
2007 6 Nico Colaluca Colorado Rapids
2008 5 Ciaran O'Brien Colorado Rapids
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
37. CASSIS 2016 37
Which MLS Clubs Find Draftees Who
Have Productive MLS Careers?
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
38. CASSIS 2016 38
Which MLS Clubs Find Draftees That
Benefit Them?
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
40. CASSIS 2016 40
An endangered species in a crowded player
acquisition environment.
Low lifetime costsLow lifetime costs
Long time to high valueLong time to high value
Low value after Round 1Low value after Round 1
The MLS Draft
Passing on late rounds of MLS SuperDraft
becomes understandable.