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1: Flash is NOT dead
Flash will live on thanks to web games and the slow realisation that HTML5 can’t do it all, yet. HTML5 will continue to be pushed ahead of some browser’s capabilities, leaving many people with “Please Upgrade Your Browser” messages. Microsoft’s Silverlight (yes it’s still around) will finally die and be another notch on HTML5’s belt of smugness.2 2012 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS
2: Engagement > Impressions With
deeper metrics expected from all devices and platforms, 2012 will mark the moment when marketers embrace the value of engagement over borrowed impressions. Brands will encounter “peak fan” numbers on social networks and will shift to squeeze as much out of them rather than grow further.3 2012 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS
3: The year of Android
& mobile ads As Android solidifies its position as the leading smartphone platform, marketers will need to shift their thinking from iOS to a bigger view of "mobile web" as a whole. Mobile display inventory will pass internet display, so expect more ad dollars to be stolen from already, socially starved publishers. NYSE Watch: Sell those RIMM shares while you can but hold on Nokia until their Windows phones have had a chance to shine.4 2012 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS
4: NFC: The New Kid
In Town QR codes will go into a head to head battle with NFC and while both will survive for 2012, NFC will grab all the headlines. The iPhone 5’s NFC capabilities will open the flood gates for agencies to start pitching NFC ideas in. Expect to see ‘Mobile Wallet’ used a lot more than it should be.5 2012 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS
5: Richer communities Spotify, TurntableFM
and Pandora Presents are just the start. Expect to see more platforms in 2012 which center around communities of people interacting around/with rich content, all offering targeted audiences that brands can engage with.6 2012 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS
6: Tablets, Tablets, Tablets The
focus will change to designing for tablet first, then mobile, then “full-size” web. Kids may be wishing every magazine was an iPad or Galaxy Tab, but their parents may prefer the cost of a souped up e-book such as the Kindle Fire, Nook or Kobo, driving even greater tablet penetration and usage. Expect ‘co-viewing’ across TVs, tablets and smartphones to be the norm and ‘co-viewing’ to be on every entertainment brief.7 2012 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS
7: Voice is the new
UI With phones programmed to talk back, and the Kinect for Xbox invading millions of living rooms, voice recognition has jumped from GPS devices and robotic voices into the mainstream of user interfaces. Expect more and more interfaces that don’t require a UI - UX Designers, get your flow diagramming on.8 2012 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS
8: Virtual meets real Every
digital agency in the world is in love with one idea: the virtual world controlling the real world. Agencies will continue to pitch ideas with live- streaming Arduino-controlled projection- mapped social experiences and expect this to continue in 2012 for one reason… it’s cool!9 2012 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS
9: Gamification The hottest topic
of 2011 will continue to sizzle in 2012 but the word has already entered “viral” territory where it’s being used and abused in too many briefs. Expect consolidation of “gamification” companies such as Bunchball, Badgeville, Scvngr, etc as clients demand more than just adding a simple badge to their marketing.10 2012 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS
10: 2012’s Hot or Not?
HOT NOT NFC Facebook Fan count 3D Printing Augmented Reality Anonymous Vehicles QR codes Frictionless Sharing Profitable MMOs Mobile Wallet Zynga Shares HTML5 Getting Hacked Tablets Portable Gaming Devices Co-Viewing Facebook’s IPO11 2012 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS
How’d we do last year?
2011 Prediction Correct Kinda Way Off Facebook Deals will become part of every brief X Gamification will be all the buzz X Move towards platforms over campaigns X Anticipated company takeovers (Amazon & Hulu, etc) X Shift to the cloud (in the US, not Aus) X Self filtering of social media participation X Net Neutrality becomes a more public debate X “Mobile replacing everything” concept not reality X Microsites re-emerge as Facebook tabs X 2011 = Peak year for buzzword bingo X12 2012 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS