The document discusses trends in global urbanization and real estate markets. It provides statistics on:
- Over 600 cities now on the corporate real estate radar, up from 30 cities in 1990.
- 50% of global real estate investment occurring in only 30 high-order cities.
- The rise of powerful city mayors transforming cities like London, New York, Paris, and Istanbul.
- Fast growing cities in the future will be located primarily in China, with over 10 million people moving to Chinese cities each year.
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1. City Futures:
The New Geography of Real Estate
Katie Kopec
International Director
22nd November 2013
2. A New World Order of Cities
Deep Urbanisation and a Changing Hierarchy: 1 million a week move to a city
2
3. The Choices for People, Capital and Companies
Investor Choice:
1990: 30 cities
|
Corporate Choice: 1990: 100 cities |
2013: 150 Cities
2013: 600+ Cities
3
4. The Rise of Mayoral Power
Boris Johnson - London
Boris’s Bikes – River crossings and airports
Michael Bloomberg - New York
Changed the face of New York
Bertrand Delanoë - Paris
Improved quality of life, reduce pollution, cut traffic
Kadir Topbas - Istanbul
Transformed the Gateway City
Antonio Villaraigosa - Los Angeles
Introduced half a penny sales tax exclusively earmarked for
transportation:
Luke Ravenstahl - Pittsburgh
Youngest mayor in history of Pittsburgh at 26.
Hosted G20 in 2009.
Lisa Scaffidi - Perth
Internationally connected, changed perceptions
Iñaki Azkuna - Bilbao
Transformed Bilbao ‘World’s best mayor’2012.’
Huang Qifan - Chongqing
His vision is to make Chongqing a ‘world famous car
town’ and to ‘Create a new silk route to Europe’
Dieter Salomon - Freiburg
‘Mayor of the greenest city in the world’ (The
Guardian)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
5. World Winning Cities Programme
Diced and Spliced the Urban Network – When and Where Next?
7. Statistics with Character : The Personality of Change
The Bold Statistic
600 cities are on the real estate
radar screen of corporates
The Unexpected Statistic
In 2020 the US will have 11
out of the 30 largest (GDP)
cities in the world
The Curious Statistic
50% of global real estate
investment - in only 30 highorder cities
The Heritage Statistic
By 2020 Europe will have
only 4 of the top 30 cities in
the world
The Anticipated Statistic
The world’s top ten
fastest growing cities will
be in China
9. Over 600 cities on the corporate radar
Half of Global GDP
Based on population, GDP, corporate presence,
air connectivity, commercial real estate stock
and real estate investment volumes
Source; Jones Lang LaSalle, 2013
The most populous, productive and connected
cities, home to MNC’s, Capital and Skills
9
10. Gdansk’s Position on the World Stage
7
30
81
83
92
Budapest
Bucharest
Gdansk Cobweb
Prague
St Petersburg
high
Istanbul
Warsaw
Global Status Score
Moscow
97
low
570 484 351 306 287 197 159 147 112 110
Global
Ranking
Population
Real Estate Investment
Volumes
City GDP 2010
Office Stock
GDP/Capita
Kiev
Sofia
Bratislava
Connectivity
Corporates
Krakow
Wroclaw
Outsourcing
Katowice
Poznan
Gdansk
Lodz
Based on population, GDP, corporate presence, air connectivity,
commercial real estate stock and real estate investment volumes
10
11. Do Mid-Weight Cities Show More Potential?
Capital stays in Capitals but activity seeks Betas and Gammas
GDP change 2012 - 2020
Alpha Cities
(Top 30 cities)
3.2 %
Beta Cities
(31-100 cities)
3.3 %
Gamma Cities
(101-300 cities)
3.9 %
3.5 %
World
% change per year
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Global Insight, Experian, Deloitte Access Economics, Conference Board of Canada,
13. Where is the city growth in ‘advanced’ economies?
Brisbane
Perth
Hong Kong
Austin
Gdansk
San Jose
Raleigh
Taipei
Calgary
Edmonton
Tel Aviv
Singapore
Salt Lake City
Charlotte
Warsaw
Stockholm
Orlando
Phoenix
Oslo
Vancouver
Dallas
GDP Change, 2012-2016 % pa
0
1
2
3
4
5
Relates to cities in advance economies (defined by IMF) with a population of more than 1m
Australian cities are based on state level GDP projection
Source: Source: IHS Global Insight, Oxford Economics, Conference Board of Canada, Deloitte Access Economics, 2012
15. Where is the money going?
Top 30 cities for direct commercial real estate investment, 2008–Q3 2012
Top 10
US$ bill
1.
London
109
2.
Tokyo
3.
11 – 20
US$ bill
21 – 30
US$ bill
11. Shanghai
22
21. Melbourne
12
89
12. Beijing
20
22. Berlin
12
New York
64
13. Chicago
19
23. Dallas
11
4.
Paris
44
14. Moscow
18
24. Calgary
11
5.
Hong Kong
37
15. Stockholm
17
25. Houston
11
6.
Singapore
31
16. San Francisco
17
26. Frankfurt
11
7.
Seoul
30
17. Sydney
15
27. Madrid
10
8.
Los Angeles
28
18. Taipei
15
28. Hamburg
10
9.
Washington DC
26
19. Boston
14
29. Oslo
10
23
20. Munich
12
30. San Diego
10. Toronto
Investment volumes in US$ billions
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
Europe Americas Asia Pacific
212. Gdansk
9
16. Real Estate Investment Intensity
Top 10 markets in CEE and Polish cities
1
2
3
Wroclaw
4
Budapest
5
Bratislava
6
Brno
7
Poznan
8
Sofia
9
Moscow
10
Zagreb
12
Krakow
21
Gdansk
Katowice
Lodz
higher
Prague
23
Investment intensity
Warsaw
25
lower
Polish cities
CEE cities
Real estate investment volumes (2008-2012) as proportion of current city GDP
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, 2013
16
18. EMEA: The Future is Innovation
R&D Spend as % GDP
8
4
Helsinki 3.5%
Stockholm 4.2%
3
Mannheim 3.9%
Paris 3.1% 10
7
6
1
Munich 4.8%
Toulouse 4.1%
Source: Eurostat, OECD
5
Berlin 3.9%
Stuttgart 5.3%
2
9 Vienna 3.5%
Tel Aviv 4.7%
19. Real Estate Transparency Index 2012
Europe
London, Amsterdam
Paris, Helsinki, Stockholm, Zurich
Highest
Frankfurt, Copenhagen, Dublin
Madrid, Brussels, Oslo, Warsaw,
Milan, Vienna, Prague,
Budapest, Lisbon, Tri-City
High
Istanbul, Athens, Bratislava
Moscow, St Petersburg, Bucharest
Zagreb, Yekaterinburg, Sofia
Kiev, Ljubljana
Semi
Opaque
Belgrade, Almaty
Low
Minsk
Opaque
Sources: Jones Lang LaSalle, LaSalle Investment Management
19
20. How important is sustainable regeneration for investors?
Green City Index v Investment Volumes
R/E Investment Volumes 2008-2011 / Total GDP
London
Oslo
Helsinki
Warsaw
Prague
Bucharest
Istanbul
Sources: Jones Lang LaSalle, Siemens
Athens
Budapest
Paris
Madrid
Rome
Dublin
Lisbon
Brussels
Berlin
Stockholm
Copenhagen
Amsterdam
Vienna
Zurich
Green City Index
20
22. World’s Fastest Growing Large Cities:
Explaining the Asia Pacific Century
Chongqing
Tianjin
Chengdu
Xi'an
Changchun
Kunming
Wuhan
Changsha
Urumqi
Taiyuan
CHINA
0
5
% p.a. 2011 - 2013
Cities with populations over 3 million. Based on province level forecasts
Source: IHS Global Insight
10
15
23. China50 Hierarchy
The tiers of real estate opportunity
Tier 1.5 Transitional:
e.g. Chengdu, Chongqing, Tianjin, Shenyang
• Large, open diverse economies
• Strong presence of MNC’s and domestic firms
= Potential across all commercial sectors
HEILONGJIANG
Harbin
Tier 2 Growth:
JILIN
Shenyang
XINJIANG
e.g. Xi’an, Qingdao, Changsha, Zhengzhou
• Strong demographics supporting robust retail markets and
industrial diversification
= Strengths in retail, logistics, business parks
INNER MONGOLIA
QINGHAI
e.g. Kunming, Harbin, Changchun, Nanning
• Moving towards the ‘lift-off’ phase
TIBET
• Aggressively being targeted by retailers / hotel operators
= Retail, hotels, pioneering corporates
HEBEI
SHANXI
Lanzhou
Xuzhou
ANHUI
JIANGSU
Nanjing
Xiangyang Hefei
SHAANXI
HUBEI
CHONGQING
Chongqing
GUIZHOU
Guiyang
Kunming
Jinan
Zhengzhou
HENAN
Chengdu
Yantai
Weifang
Qingdao
SHANDONG
Luoyang
Xi’an
GANSU
e.g. Guiyang, Urumqi, Taiyuan
• Target for first-mover advantage
= Retail, hotels, pioneering corporates
Wuhan Hangzhou
ZHEJIANG
HUNAN
GUANGXI
YUNNAN
Nanning
Indicates levels of economic and property activity
Dalian
Shijiazhuang
Taiyuan
Changsha
Tier 1 cities (not part of China50)
LIAONING
Tangshan
Tianjin
SICHUAN
Tier 3 Early Adopter:
HEBEI
Hohhot
NINGXIA
Tier 3 Emerging:
Jilin
Changchun
Urumqi
Haikou
HAINAN
Nanchang
JIANGXI
FUJIAN
Wenzhou
Changzhou
Wuxi
Nantong
Suzhou
Shanghai
Jiaxing
Ningbo
Shaoxing
Jinhua
Fuzhou
Taipei
Quanzhou
Xiamen
TAIWAN
Shantou
Dongguan
Foshan
Shenzhen
Hong Kong
Macau
Zhuhai
Zhongshan
GUANGDONG
23
24. Some of the Rising Urban Stars …
Istanbul
Chengdu
Monterrey
Ahmedabad
Panama City
Accra
Lima
Jakarta
Luanda
Maputo
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, World Winning Cities
Wuhan
25. Shoring activity intensifying & diversifying
Sample of BPO & SSC Occupiers in CEE
Tri-City
Poznań
Warsaw
Wrocław
Prague
Łódź
Kraków
Brno
Bratislava
Budapest
Zagreb
Bucharest
Belgrade
Split
Sofia
EMEA PREDICTIONS
26. What to look out for ….
• Changing fortunes in the Top 30 Alpha cities
• Mid-sized cities seeking reinvention
• US cities retaining considerable economic and real estate weight
• The rise of MIST cities
• European cities – success built on being innovative, transparent, regenerative
• New location scorecards reflecting vulnerability, resilience, social media and
city perspectives of the young footloose target market
28. Selected Infrastructure Improvements
Roads & Airports & Railway
• Pomeranian Metropolitan Railway. This railway will revolutionize public transport within
Tri-City area connecting Gdansk and Gdynia, via the Gdansk Airport, with western
suburbs.
• Northern Bypass of Tri-City Agglomeration. A double-lane express route, 14 km
long, will be the extension of the existent Tri-City bypass.
• Metropolitan Bypass. A double-lane express route will link Gdynia to Gdansk bypassing
the upper districts of the metropolis.
• Further southward extension of A1 Motorway (the main North-South motorway).
Source of information:
29. Selected Infrastructure Improvements
Roads & Airports & Railway
• Improvement of the Gdańsk Airport. Extension of the passenger terminal along with
the road system and enlargement of the cargo terminal to be completed by 2016.
• Improvement of Gdynia Airport. The airport will open to general aviation in IVQ
2013/IQ 2014.
• Upgrading of the E 65 railway line linking Tri-City and Warsaw. Traveling time
should be shorten from 5-6 to 3-3,5 hours. The project is to be completed in 2015.
• New railway station in Sopot.
• Construction of double railway track to Port of Gdansk. Investment is to be
completed by 2015.
• Extension of the fast train (SKM) towards City Centre.
Source of information:
30. Selected Infrastructure Improvements
Port of Gdańsk
• Sucharskiego Route connects Port of Gdansk with S7 Expressway and A1 Motorway.
• Technical road connecting DCT Gdansk with the Pomeranian Logistics Center – planned.
• 2-line railway track. Project will be commissioned by 2015.
• New rail bridge over the Dead Vistula River. The rail will increase daily capacity by over
50%. The project is to be commissioned in 2015.
• Tunnel under the Dead Vistula. The tunnel will connect Slowackiego with Sucharskiego
route linking the inner and the outer port and forming the inner ring of Gdansk. The project
is to be commissioned by December 2014.
Source of information:
32. Lessons from Elsewhere-Success Factors
• Land Ownership/ Control
- Land in single public ownership
- Certainty/ Speed
- CPO Public acquisition/ private finance
• Infrastructure Upfront
- Transport
- Public realm
- Infra Cos
32
33. Lessons From Elsewhere-Success Factors
• Strong Vision
- Masterplan/ planning
- Economic rationale
- Build on Strengths/clusters
- Critical mass/ Themes
• City Marketing/ Civic Leadership
- City Authority commitment
33
35. Lessons From Elsewhere-Success Factors
• Bespoke Delivery Structures
- PPPs
- Public sector as catalyst
- Infra Cos
- Land assets
Funding Risk Structure
- Tax based
Top slice
risk
£30m
Mezzanine
£10m
Institution
£7m
Debt Provider
£75m
35
36. Lessons for Tri-City
Success factors - International best practice
Strong vision/ rationale
Single land ownership/ control- longer lease
Infrastructure – investment up front
Transport
Place/ public realm
Critical mass - early phase to establish place
Architecture – very high quality/
iconic
Civic support/ City marketing
Robust delivery structure-partner
Waterfront exploited/ promoted
36