The document summarizes the current state of inflation and cost of living in the United States. It finds that consumer price inflation hit a new 40 year high in February 2022 and is projected to increase further. Multiple factors are contributing to rising prices, including high commodity costs, labor shortages, and uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, which is exacerbating issues in global food security and energy markets. While the U.S. economy remains resilient, inflation is expected to continue outpacing wage growth and squeezing household budgets in the near term.

1. COST OF LIVING –
UNITED STATES –
FEBRUARY 2022
Paul Young CPA CGA
March 10, 2022

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. AGENDA
• CPI Index
• BMO – Consumer Price Index – United States
• Housing Price Index
• Gasoline Prices
• Average housing Price
• Producer Price Index
• Freight Index
• Blog – Cargo
• Blog – Supply Chain Disruption
• Blog – Stimulus and Inflation

4. THE USA – CPI INDEX
CPI - USA - February
2022.pdf

5. BMO –
CONSUMER
PRICE INDEX
Source – BMO - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f3043170-
c659-40f3-b37f-14ca75272422/
U.S. CPI Still Behind
the Eight Ball.pdf

6. BMO – CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Source -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/
2cb89f8c-5f2c-4cd1-b642-550ea67076e2/
Source – BMO - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f3043170-c659-40f3-
b37f-14ca75272422/
U.S. CPI Still Behind
the Eight Ball.pdf

7. OECD AND INFLATION

8. HOUSING PRICE INDEX
Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

9. PRODUCE
PRICE INDEX
Source -
https://www.bls.gov/news.re
lease/ppi.nr0.htm
Purchase Price Index
- February 2022 - USA.pdf

10. GASOLINE
PRICES
Source -
https://ycharts.com/indicators/
us_gas_price

11. AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE
Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

12. FREIGHT COSTS
Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU484121484121

13. CARGO
Blog - Retail Cargo Expected to Set Record in August
“Strong consumer demand has outpaced supply chain operations since late last year and could remain a challenge as the
holidays approach," Gold added. "The continuing lack of labor, equipment and capacity has highlighted systemic issues and the
need to create a truly 21st century supply chain to ensure resiliency against the next major disruption. Passage of infrastructure
legislation currently pending in Congress is a key step in that direction. We need continued focus by the administration to help
address these issues as well.”
Shipping and congestion continue to be a concern. “The strain of the continuing economic expansion is putting considerable
pressure on the logistics supply chain,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a statement. “We’re seeing a lack of
shipping capacity combined with port congestion as vessels line up to discharge goods from both Asia and Europe. Delays are
stretching to landside as port terminals struggle with space shortages, and labor challenges are affecting ports, railroads and
trucking companies alike. This part of the recovery is not a pretty sight.”
https://www.mhlnews.com/global-supply-chain/article/21171732/retail-cargo-expected-to-set-record-in-
august?utm_source=IY+IW+QM+News&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS210809063&o_eid=7930I4506489J2B&rdx.ident%5Bpull%5
D=omeda%7C7930I4506489J2B&oly_enc_id=7930I4506489J2B
This ties nicely into my work on United States retail sales - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-usa-june-2021
Blog – How to build a resilient Supply Chain using Data and AI
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

14. SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-trade-unexpectedly-surges-despite-virus-outbreaks-
1.1648671?taid=61373efe2b6d260001ced600&utm_campaign=trueAnthem+Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_s
ource=twitter
There are enormous issues with ports, rails, and other parts of the infrastructure's ability to move goods to the end
consumer. https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

15. STIMULUS AND INFLATION
COVID inflation is everywhere, but some have more of it than others. Among advanced economies, the U.S. is starting to
look like the outlier.
That’s probably because it did more fiscal stimulus in the pandemic, economists say. The consensus is that high inflation
won’t last long. But even if that’s right, the current elevated level has the potential to cause problems of its own -- for
President Joe Biden’s most ambitious economic plans at home, and for other countries too.
August data due Tuesday is set to show annual growth in U.S. consumer prices stayed above 5 per cent in August for a
third straight month, according to Bloomberg surveys. The median forecast was 5.3 per cent, down from 5.4 per cent the
previous month. Most other developed countries have seen a spike too -- just not nearly as big.
Source - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-inflation-is-starting-to-look-like-a-stimulus-led-outlier-1.1651314
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-public-sector-united-states-250175562

16. WAGES
Blog - Proportion of businesses raising pay hits 48-year high: NFIB
The proportion of small businesses that raised pay in October hit a 48-year high, with a net 44% increasing compensation
and a net 32% planning to do so in the next three months, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said
Tuesday.
Optimism among owners toward the business outlook during the next six months slumped to the lowest level since
November 2012, NFIB said, citing a survey of 1,431 small businesses. “Owners have grown pessimistic about future
economic conditions,” the federation said, noting that 49% said they could not fill job openings and all but 10% reported
disruption from supply chain bottlenecks.
“One of the biggest problems for small businesses is the lack of workers for unfilled positions and inventory shortages,
which will continue to be a problem during the holiday season,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said.
https://www.cfodive.com/news/businesses-raising-pay-hits-48-year-high-
nfib/609756/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202021-11-
10%20CFO%20Dive%20%5Bissue:37915%5D&utm_term=CFO%20Dive
Blog – Employment – United States – October 2021 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/employment-and-labour-
market-the-united-states-october-2021

17. GREEN INFLATION
Blog - Decarbonization And 'Greenflation'
 Accelerating the transition toward low or net-zero carbon emissions is necessary to keep global warming at
theoretically safe levels.
 That will likely bring price shocks associated with rising metal prices, energy costs, and carbon taxes – what has
been called “greenflation”.
 Greening the economy will also require public spending and redistributive policies.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474720-decarbonization-and-greenflation?mail_subject=decarbonization-and-
greenflation&utm_campaign=nl-macro-view&utm_content=link-0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
The world including the United States are seeing highest inflation since the 1980s (Source -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/cost-of-living-the-united-states-inflation-november-2021) and environment
- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-mitigate-the-threats-of-climate-change-250803941
Any significant change in tax and environmental policies will lead to changes in input costs for many businesses.
There are better ways to fixed issues with environment through more balance of policies that will not drive up the
inflation rates across the globe!
Additional link - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-mitigate-the-threats-of-climate-change-250803941

18. SUMMARY
• Inflation hit a 40 year high in February 2022. Current level inflation harkens back to the 1980s -
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/high-inflation-harkens-back-to-the-1980s-here-is-whats-similar-
and-different-11640722274
• Progressive governments continue to push their green agenda. There is no real plan to gradually phase
out fossil fuels which is leading to many issues with energy prices.
Blog – CPI – Inflation – The United States – Cost of Living
After Pandemic, War
in Ukraine New Threat to Food Security U.S. News® US News.pdf
Opinion US must
learn from Europe's energy crisis Terry Jarrett.pdf
5 Reasons Why the
United States Can't Drill Its Way to Energy Independence - Center for American Progress.pdf
Government wants
advice on how to reduce fertilizer emissions Farms.com.pdf
U.S. farmers
improving climate-friendly practices, but 'more work to do' - report Reuters.pdf
Consumer Debt Data
May Show Warning Signs Ahead PYMNTS.com.pdf
Weekly Pricing Pulse
Commodity prices break records as conflict war intensifies IHS Markit.pdf
Record High Diesel
Prices Will Affect Your Freight Costs PartnerShip.pdf
Analysts Raw material
price surge will put EV battery affordability gains on hold until 2024.pdf
Ukraine war piles
pressure on global food system already in crisis Food security The Guardian.pdf
US inflation at a
40-year high and the only way is up Article ING Think.pdf
Summary:
Consumer price inflation hit a new 40 year high and will soon get close to 9% as businesses' surging
commodity and labour costs get passed onto consumers. The Russia/Ukraine situation creates
uncertainty, but the US economy has strong momentum and looks resilient. We look for six 25bp fed
funds rate hikes this year
Source - https://think.ing.com/articles/us-inflation-is-only-going-higher/
1. Food security - https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2022-03-10/after-pandemic-war-in-
ukraine-new-threat-to-food-security
2. Energy crisis - https://www.rgj.com/story/opinion/voices/2022/03/09/opinion-us-must-learn-
europes-energy-crisis-terry-jarrett/9429451002/
3. Green agenda is winning the game - https://www.americanprogress.org/article/5-reasons-why-
the-united-states-cant-drill-its-way-to-energy-independence/
4. Fertilizers - https://www.farms.com/ag-industry-news/government-wants-advice-on-how-to-
reduce-fertilizer-emissions-174.aspx
5. Farming - https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-farmers-improving-climate-friendly-practices-
more-work-do-report-2022-03-10/
6. Household debt - https://www.pymnts.com/debt/2022/latest-united-states-consumer-debt-
data-may-show-some-warning-signs-ahead/
7. Commodities - https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/weekly-pricing-pulse-prices-break-
records-conflict.html
8. Freight - https://www.partnership.com/blog/post/record-high-diesel-prices-will-affect-your-
freight-costs
9. Lithium - https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1135251_raw-material-price-surge-ev-
battery-affordability-gains-on-hold-until-2024
10. Food crisis - https://www.theguardian.com/food/2022/mar/09/ukraine-war-piles-pressure-on-
global-food-system-already-in-crisis