Towards a democratic, scalable, and sustainable digital future (a complex systems perspective)

1. Towards a democratic, scalable, and sustainable digital future (a complex systems perspective) @KoljaKleinebergkkleineberg@ethz.chKaj Kolja Kleineberg koljakleineberg.wordpress.com

2. Complex system? What is a

3. » ...the whole is more than the sum of the parts, [...] in the sense that, given the properties of the parts and the laws of their interaction, it is not a trivial matter to infer the properties of the whole.« Herbert A. Simon

4. » ...the whole is more than the sum of the parts, [...] in the sense that, given the properties of the parts and the laws of their interaction, it is not a trivial matter to infer the properties of the whole.« Herbert A. Simon Large number of components

5. » ...the whole is more than the sum of the parts, [...] in the sense that, given the properties of the parts and the laws of their interaction, it is not a trivial matter to infer the properties of the whole.« Herbert A. Simon Large number of components Nonlinear interactions

6. » ...the whole is more than the sum of the parts, [...] in the sense that, given the properties of the parts and the laws of their interaction, it is not a trivial matter to infer the properties of the whole.« Herbert A. Simon Large number of components Nonlinear interactions Emergence & self-organization

8. the human brain

9. How can we deal with complex systems?

10. How can we deal with complex systems? Complex networks useful tools

11. Networks allow us to map the interactions and study system-level implications Nature Physics 10, 762-767 (2014) • Phys. Rev. Lett. 109, 064101 (2013)

12. Networks often provide useful maps of complex systems Nature Communications 1, 62 (2010)

13. Networks are powerful tools to solve diverse problems Credits: Marian Boguna

19. my story

20. When I was 11 years old...

21. 56k modem ... I got my first

22. now, 2 decades later...

23. online social network users 2+ billion internet users 3+ billion

24. networked devices by 2020 50 billion

25. could lead to Collective Intelligence

26. but also to Monopolies of Information

27. vision of our digital future. We need a democratic, scalable, sustainable

28. Evolution of isolated online social networks unfolds on top of underlying social structure Online social network layer Traditional contact network layer Active Online & offline Passive Online & offline Susceptible Only offline Mass media activation Viral activation Deactivation Viral reactivation Physical Review X (4) 031046 (2014)

29. Digital ecosystem is formed by multiple networks competing for the attention of individuals OSN 2 OSN 1 Underl. network Active Passive Susceptible Partial states} Virality share distribution between OSNs λi = ωi(ρa)λ Rich-get-richer more active networks obtain higher share Here: ωi = [ρa i ]σ/ ∑ j[ρa j]σ σ: activity affinity Sci. Rep. 5, 10268 (2015)

30. Coexistence (diversity) is possible but fragile: once lost, it cannot be recovered Stable Unstable 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 Bifurcation diagram σ ρ1,2 a Sci. Rep. 5, 10268 (2015)

31. Coexistence (diversity) is possible but fragile: once lost, it cannot be recovered Stable Unstable 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 Bifurcation diagram σ ρ1,2 a Coexistence despite rich-get-richer Sci. Rep. 5, 10268 (2015)

32. Coexistence (diversity) is possible but fragile: once lost, it cannot be recovered Stable Unstable 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 Bifurcation diagram σ ρ1,2 a Coexistence despite rich-get-richer Digital diversity is fragile Sci. Rep. 5, 10268 (2015)

33. Utility of networks: bottom-up search and navigation with incentives based on sharing generated value Individuals perform routing instead of service providers Routing information is rewarded (cryptocurrency) Payoff for successful deliveries Nature Communications 1, 62 (2010) • arXiv:1611.04395 (accepted in Sci. Rep.)

34. Scalable navigation using only local knowledge performs better if more networks coexist Nature Physics 12, 1076–1081 (2016)

41. Appropriate incentives could create a feedback loop building on self-organization of complex systems Qualiﬁed Money t o route activein m any networks Optim izes strategy: Inc entive Sustains digital dive rsity Increasesro uting perform a nce Exchangeable Social Bitcoin +Reputation Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 225: 3231 (2016)

42. Tendency to be active in several networks simultaneously influences distribution of attention between networks Attention share distribution between OSNs λi = ωi(ρa)λ ωi(ρa ) = [ρa i ]σ ∑nl j=1 [ ρa j ]σ rich-get-richer Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 225: 3231 (2016)

43. Tendency to be active in several networks simultaneously influences distribution of attention between networks Attention share distribution between OSNs λi = ωi(ρa)λ ωi(ρa ) = [ρa i ]σ ∑nl j=1 [ ρa j ]σ rich-get-richer + ξ(⟨ρa ⟩ − ρa i ) navigation incentive Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 225: 3231 (2016)

44. Tendency to be active in several networks simultaneously influences distribution of attention between networks Attention share distribution between OSNs λi = ωi(ρa)λ ωi(ρa ) = [ρa i ]σ ∑nl j=1 [ ρa j ]σ rich-get-richer + ξ(⟨ρa ⟩ − ρa i ) navigation incentive ξ = 0.2 ξ = 1.0 Stable Unstable 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 σ ρ1,2 a Stable Unstable 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 σ ρ1,2 a Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 225: 3231 (2016)

45. A democratic, scalable, and sustainable digital future: Appropriate incentive system could lead to sustainability to route strategy Optimizes Incentive Sustains digital diversity Increases routing performance Social Bitcoin +Reputa�onStable Unstable 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 Bifurcation diagram ρ1 a 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.50 0.75 σ σ ρ1,2 a FrameworkResultFocus Digital PRX 4, 031046 Sci. Rep. 5, 10268 Sci. Rep. 6, 25116 Scalable Sustainability Is digital diversity possible? Search and navigation with local knowledge Incentives sustain diverse decentralized digital world Network evolution & competition Geometric correlations, mutual greedy routing Digital diversity is possible but fragile Routing perfected by using many networks Digital diversity becomes robust & routing improves Refs Nature Physics 12, 1076–1081 (2016) Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 225: 3231 (2016) Cryptocurrency as incentive to route information navigationdiversity & robustness

48. Take home

49. digital future is possible. A democratic, scalable, sustainable

50. Kaj Kolja Kleineberg: • kkleineberg@ethz.ch • @KoljaKleineberg • koljakleineberg.wordpress.com ETH Zurich: • Computational Social Science Group • http://www.coss.ethz.ch

51. Kaj Kolja Kleineberg: • kkleineberg@ethz.ch • @KoljaKleineberg ← Slides & updates • koljakleineberg.wordpress.com ETH Zurich: • Computational Social Science Group • http://www.coss.ethz.ch

Towards a democratic, scalable, and sustainable digital future (a complex systems perspective)

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