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International Money Matters:
Organization Updates
Geographical presence
2
Service clients All Over
India
Over 12 countries serviced
worldwide
50+ team members and
growing
as we expand footprints…
3
Chennai
4
…and move to new offices
Delhi
Winning accolades: trusted planners globally
5
Winner: PlanPlus Global Financial
Planning Award , Asia Region
Runners-up: Wise Advice Case
Competition Awards 2018
Market Outlook
7
Performance of key indices
Current
Price
% change 1M % change YTD
Nifty 10,930 -6.4% 3.8%
Nifty 500 9.116 -8.8% -3.9%
Nifty Midcap 17,154 -13.9% -18.8%
Nifty Smallcap 6,151 -19.8% -32.4%
10 yr Govt. Securities 8.03% 7.4 bps 70.7 bps
USD/INR Spot 72.54 -2.1% -12.0%
Gold (USD/oz) 1,191 -0.8% -8.6%
Brent Crude (USD/bbl) 82.72 6.8% 23.7%
MSCI All World Index (USD) 524.3 0.3% 2.2%
MSCI EM Index (USD)
10 yr US Treasury 3.07% 20.9 bps 66.4 bps
2018 - a year of volatility so far
How has it panned out so far…
• Indian equities were volatile
• Local bond yields continued to rise
• INR touched new all time low of 74.
…the reasons leading to volatility
• Sharp rise in crude oil price
• Current account deficit widened to 2.4% of GDP
• Emerging Market (EM) assets declined
• Local and global tightening of monetary policy
What we recommend
• Cautious on Indian equities amid elevated valuations
• Prefer large cap compared to mid/small caps
• Prefer hybrid, ETF, Index funds
• Invest in high credit quality, low duration - liquid, ultra-
short and short duration funds
Crude prices have weighed on the INR this year
40
50
60
70
80
30
50
70
90
110
130
Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18
USD/INRSpot
Brentcrudeprice(USD/bbl)
Brent crude price (USD/bbl) USD/INR spot
Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com
Data as of 25th October 2018
Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com
8
What’s in store for the equity markets?
• Macroeconomic environment has worsened
• However, equity fundamentals have improved
• Valuations have moderated, but still not cheap
• Earnings growth has improved
• Economic growth has picked up
• Domestic flows have remained strong
• Q2 FY19 earnings to take center stage going ahead
• Moderation in valuations suggest good opportunity to
add about 10-15% of liquid surplus if available
• However, political risks, crude price uncertainty, global
trade tension uncertainty remains.
• Hence, we would closely look for more opportunity for
lumpsum money deployment as some of these risks
get moderated.
• Until then, better to take gradual equity exposure
through STP till September 2019 for rest of liquid
surplus.
Valuations have moderated, but still not cheap
Larger pain in mid and small cap segment
10
15
20
25
30
Oct-08 Oct-10 Oct-12 Oct-14 Oct-16 Oct-18
Nifty 12M trailing PE 10yr Avg.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18
Nifty Index Nifty Smallcap Nifty Midcap
Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com
Price scaled to 100 with 12 Dec 2017 as base
Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com
9
Debt investors also brace for volatility
• Risk of higher crude oil prices remain
• We believe the RBI could raise rates at least once in this
fiscal year as inflationary pressures rise.
• Fundamentals are supportive
• Attractive spread between 10yr IGB and repo rate
• Real yield (yield – inflation) is also attractive
• Government has reduced the borrowing plan and
re-iterated its commitment to fiscal deficit (Supply
of government bond likely to be restricted
• However, short-term risks remain, namely crude price
uncertainty, liquidity squeeze in NBFCs, trade tensions
and local & global rising interest rates.
• Best to be in shorter duration-oriented schemes
• But one can look to add duration when 10yr yield is
around the 8.25-8.5% range.
10yr IGB correlated to crude prices
10yr IGB yield touches 8.2%
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Yiedon10yrIGB
BrentCrudeprice(USD/bbl) Brent crude price Yield on 10yr IGB
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18
10yr Indian Government Bond yield
Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com
Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com. Indian Government Bonds (IGB)
10
Key takeaways for our clients
 We suggest lumpsum purchase of 10-15% at this point of time, followed by gradual increase in equity exposure
through STPs up to September 2019
 We continue to prefer large caps currently over mid and small caps
 Hybrid, ETFs and Index funds are the preferred categories
 Invest in high credit lower-duration funds like liquid, ultra-short, low-duration and short-term schemes
 10 year yield around the 8.25%-8.5% range may be a good opportunity to start adding duration funds
 About 5% exposure to gold might be appropriate in current market situation
11
Contact Us :
www.immpl.com
info@immpl.com
+91 80 4049 3939
Q&A – happy to answer your queries.

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Market outlook- International Money Matters

  • 2. Geographical presence 2 Service clients All Over India Over 12 countries serviced worldwide 50+ team members and growing
  • 3. as we expand footprints… 3 Chennai
  • 4. 4 …and move to new offices Delhi
  • 5. Winning accolades: trusted planners globally 5 Winner: PlanPlus Global Financial Planning Award , Asia Region Runners-up: Wise Advice Case Competition Awards 2018
  • 7. 7 Performance of key indices Current Price % change 1M % change YTD Nifty 10,930 -6.4% 3.8% Nifty 500 9.116 -8.8% -3.9% Nifty Midcap 17,154 -13.9% -18.8% Nifty Smallcap 6,151 -19.8% -32.4% 10 yr Govt. Securities 8.03% 7.4 bps 70.7 bps USD/INR Spot 72.54 -2.1% -12.0% Gold (USD/oz) 1,191 -0.8% -8.6% Brent Crude (USD/bbl) 82.72 6.8% 23.7% MSCI All World Index (USD) 524.3 0.3% 2.2% MSCI EM Index (USD) 10 yr US Treasury 3.07% 20.9 bps 66.4 bps 2018 - a year of volatility so far How has it panned out so far… • Indian equities were volatile • Local bond yields continued to rise • INR touched new all time low of 74. …the reasons leading to volatility • Sharp rise in crude oil price • Current account deficit widened to 2.4% of GDP • Emerging Market (EM) assets declined • Local and global tightening of monetary policy What we recommend • Cautious on Indian equities amid elevated valuations • Prefer large cap compared to mid/small caps • Prefer hybrid, ETF, Index funds • Invest in high credit quality, low duration - liquid, ultra- short and short duration funds Crude prices have weighed on the INR this year 40 50 60 70 80 30 50 70 90 110 130 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18 USD/INRSpot Brentcrudeprice(USD/bbl) Brent crude price (USD/bbl) USD/INR spot Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com Data as of 25th October 2018 Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com
  • 8. 8 What’s in store for the equity markets? • Macroeconomic environment has worsened • However, equity fundamentals have improved • Valuations have moderated, but still not cheap • Earnings growth has improved • Economic growth has picked up • Domestic flows have remained strong • Q2 FY19 earnings to take center stage going ahead • Moderation in valuations suggest good opportunity to add about 10-15% of liquid surplus if available • However, political risks, crude price uncertainty, global trade tension uncertainty remains. • Hence, we would closely look for more opportunity for lumpsum money deployment as some of these risks get moderated. • Until then, better to take gradual equity exposure through STP till September 2019 for rest of liquid surplus. Valuations have moderated, but still not cheap Larger pain in mid and small cap segment 10 15 20 25 30 Oct-08 Oct-10 Oct-12 Oct-14 Oct-16 Oct-18 Nifty 12M trailing PE 10yr Avg. 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Nifty Index Nifty Smallcap Nifty Midcap Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com Price scaled to 100 with 12 Dec 2017 as base Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com
  • 9. 9 Debt investors also brace for volatility • Risk of higher crude oil prices remain • We believe the RBI could raise rates at least once in this fiscal year as inflationary pressures rise. • Fundamentals are supportive • Attractive spread between 10yr IGB and repo rate • Real yield (yield – inflation) is also attractive • Government has reduced the borrowing plan and re-iterated its commitment to fiscal deficit (Supply of government bond likely to be restricted • However, short-term risks remain, namely crude price uncertainty, liquidity squeeze in NBFCs, trade tensions and local & global rising interest rates. • Best to be in shorter duration-oriented schemes • But one can look to add duration when 10yr yield is around the 8.25-8.5% range. 10yr IGB correlated to crude prices 10yr IGB yield touches 8.2% 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Yiedon10yrIGB BrentCrudeprice(USD/bbl) Brent crude price Yield on 10yr IGB 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 10yr Indian Government Bond yield Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com Source: International Money Matters, Investing.com. Indian Government Bonds (IGB)
  • 10. 10 Key takeaways for our clients  We suggest lumpsum purchase of 10-15% at this point of time, followed by gradual increase in equity exposure through STPs up to September 2019  We continue to prefer large caps currently over mid and small caps  Hybrid, ETFs and Index funds are the preferred categories  Invest in high credit lower-duration funds like liquid, ultra-short, low-duration and short-term schemes  10 year yield around the 8.25%-8.5% range may be a good opportunity to start adding duration funds  About 5% exposure to gold might be appropriate in current market situation
  • 11. 11 Contact Us : www.immpl.com info@immpl.com +91 80 4049 3939 Q&A – happy to answer your queries.